wars and empire

7/24/2019 Wars and Empire

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Wars and Empire

1stEDITION

Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

Editing and Design:

Lidija Rangelovska

Lidija Rangelovska

A Narcissus Publications Imprint, Skopje 2003

irst publis!ed b" #nited Press International $ #PI

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C O N T E N T S

I. The (+tho"

II. ()o+t (*te" the %ain

Containing the United States

I. @h! is (me"ian 8ated

II. Containing the 5nited States

The War in Afghanistan

I. (*ghan ?!ths

II. PakistanAs Nie #itt&e @a"

III. The (*ghan T"i

On the Road to Iraq Central and East Europe

I. E5 and N(TO The Cometing (&&ianes

II. The E+"o(t&anti Di'ide

III. %+ssia St"add&es the Di'ide

IV. %+ssiaAs Stea&th Di&oma!

V. #osing the I"aB @a"

VI. ;e"man!As %e)e&&io+s Co&onies

VII. The Dis+nited Nations
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The War in Iraq Coalition Building

I. The Eonomies o* the ?idd&e East

II. The Costs o* Coa&ition =+i&ding

III. Is It (&& a)o+t Oi&

IV. The (is o* Oi&

V. SaddamAs One Tho+sand Nights

VI. T+"ke!As #osing St"eak

VII. T+"ke!As e-ish >"iend

VIII. Is"ae& The Net Ta"get

IX. Oi& *o" >ood P"og"am

X.I"aBAs ?idd&e C&ass

XI. I"aBAs %e'enant Sons

XII. >o"gi'ing I"aBAs De)ts

XIII.


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?e"i*+&&!, &a"ges s-athes o* h+manit! )eing &esss!ntheti and *ake a"e sti&& "one to the +n)"id&ede"ession o* thei" emotions. One o* the most *"eB+entand a&&e"'asi'e sentiments among them seems to )eanti(me"ianism a set"+m o* "eations "anging *"om'i"+&ent a'e"sion, th"o+gh intense dis&ike, to 'oa&de"ision.

The 5nited States is one o* the &ast "emaining &andemi"es. That it is made the )+tt o* o"o)"i+m and odi+mis ha"d&! s+""ising, o" +n"eedented. Emi"es %ome,

the ="itish, the Ottomans -e"e a&-a!s ta"geted )! thedisg"+nt&ed, the disen*"anhised and the disossessed and)! thei" se&*aointed de&egates, the inte&&igentsia.

Fet, e'en )! histo"ia& standa"ds, (me"ia seems to )e"o'oking )&anket "e+&sion.

The Pe- %esea"h Cente" +)&ished &ast Deem)e" a"eo"t tit&ed @hat the @o"&d Thinks in 2002. The

@o"&d, -as "ed+ed )! the o&&ste"s to GG o+nt"ies and3H,000 inte"'ie-ees. T-o othe" s+"'e!s +)&ished &ast!ea" )! the ;e"man ?a"sha&& >+nd and the ChiagoCo+ni& on >o"eign %e&ations &a"ge&! s+o"ted Pe-4s*indings.

The most sta"t&ing and +nam)ig+o+s "e'e&ation -as theetent o* anti(me"ian g"o+nds-e&& e'e"!-he"e: among(me"ia4s N(TO a&&ies, in de'e&oing o+nt"ies, ?+s&imnations and e'en in easte"n E+"oe -he"e (me"ians, on&!a deade ago, -e"e &ionied as m+had+&ated &i)e"ato"s.


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Peo&e a"o+nd the -o"&d em)"ae things (me"ian and,at the same time, de"! 5.S. in*&+ene on thei" soieties.Simi&a"&!, &+"a&ities in most o* the nations s+"'e!edom&ain a)o+t (me"ian +ni&ate"a&ism. eo+nds thePe- "eo"t.

Fet, e'en this em)"ae o* things (me"ian isam)ig+o+s.

Vio&ent&! indeendent, inane&! &itigio+s andB+a""e&some, so&isistia&&! "o'inia&, and *at+o+s&!igno"ant this nation o* 'ideo &is and so+nd )ites, the

5nited States, is o*ten e"ei'ed as t"!ing to imose itsna"issisti se+do+&t+"e +on a -o"&d eha+sted )!-a"s hot and o&d and o""+ted )! 'a+o+s mate"ia&ism.

%eent ao+nting sanda&s, "+m)&ing ma"kets, o&itia&sams, tehno&ogia& set)aks, and "ising soia& tensionsha'e "e'ea&ed ho- "otten and inhe"ent&! ont"adito"! the5S edi*ie is and ho- one"ned a"e (me"ians -ith

aea"anes "athe" than s+)stane.

To "e&igio+s *+ndamenta&ists, (me"ia is the ;"eat Satan,a &atte"da! Sodom and ;omo""ah, a essoo& o*immo"a&it! and si"it+a& dea!. To man! E+"oean&i)e"a&s, the 5nited states is a th"o-)ak to da"ke" ages o*"e&igio+s ea&ot"!, e"niio+s )igot"!, 'i"+&ent nationa&ism,and the a"iio+s mis"+&e o* the might!.

(o"ding to most "eent s+"'e!s )! ;a&&+, ?O%I, theCo+ni& *o" Se+&a" 8+manism, the 5S Cens+s =+"ea+,and othe"s the 'ast ma$o"it! o* (me"ians a"eha+'inisti, mo"a&iing, )i)&eth+ming, antanke"o+s,and t"igge"ha!. ()o+t ha&* o* them )e&ie'e that Sataneists not as a metaho", )+t h!sia&&!.

(me"ia has a "eo"d de*ense sending e" head, a'e"tigino+s "ate o* ina"e"ation, among the highestn+m)e"s o* &ega& ee+tions and g+n"e&ated deaths. It is


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sti&& engaged in ata'isti de)ates a)o+t a)o"tion, the "o&eo* "e&igion, and -hethe" to teah the theo"! o* e'o&+tion.

(o"ding to a se"ies o* seia& *eat+"e a"ti&es in The

Eonomist, (me"ia is gene"a&&! -e&&&iked in E+"oe, )+t&ess so than )e*o"e. It is +tte"&! detested )! the ?os&emst"eet, e'en in "og"essi'e ("a) o+nt"ies, s+h as Eg!tand o"dan. E'e"!one E+"oeans and ("a)s, (sians and(*"ians thinks that the s"ead o* (me"ian ideas and+stoms is a )ad thing.

(dmitted&!, -e t!ia&&! de'a&+e most that -hih -e ha'e

*o"me"&! idea&ied and ido&ied.

To the &i)e"a&minded, the 5nited States o* (me"ia"ei*ied the most no)&e, &o*t!, and -o"th! 'a&+es, idea&s,and a+ses. It -as a d"eam in the th"oes o* )eoming, a'ision o* &i)e"t!, eae, $+stie, "ose"it!, and "og"ess.Its s!stem, tho+gh *a" *"om *&a-&ess, -as onside"eds+e"io" )oth mo"a&&! and *+ntiona&&! to an! e'e"

onei'ed )! ?an.

S+h +n"ea&isti eetations ine'ita)&! and in'a"ia)&!&ead to disenhantment, disi&&+sionment, )itte"disaointment, seething ange", and a sense o* h+mi&iation*o" ha'ing )een th+s de&+ded, o", "athe", se&*deei'ed.This )ak&ash is *+"the" eae")ated )! the ha+ght!heto"ing o* the +)iB+ito+s (me"ian missiona"ies o* the*"eema"ket+mdemo"a! h+"h.


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(me"ians e'e"!-he"e agg"essi'e&! "eah the s+e"io"'i"t+es o* thei" home&and. Ed-a"d


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8is is )! no means the most at"oio+s &ink in a &ong haino* )"+ta&ities in*&ited )! (me"ian so&die"s o'e"seas. Ina&& these ases, the e"et"ato"s -e"e "emo'ed *"om thesene to *ae $+stie o", mo"e o*ten, a t"a'est! the"eo* )ak home.

(me"ians o**iia&s, sho&a"s, eaemake"s, nongo'e"nment o"ganiations maintain a o&onia& state o*mind. =ak-a"d nati'es ome hea, thei" &i'esdisensa)&e, thei" s!stems o* go'e"nane and eonomiesinhe"ent&! in*e"io". The -hite man4s )+"den m+st not )e

en+m)e"ed )! the 'aga"ies o* "imiti'e indigeno+s$+"is"+dene. 8ene (me"ia4s *ie"e "esistane to andinde*atiga)&e o)st"+tion o* the Inte"nationa& C"imina&Co+"t.

Oo"t+nisti m+&ti&ate"a&ism not-ithstanding, the 5S(sti&& o-es the oo"e" nations o* the -o"&d &ose to M200mi&&ion its a""ea"s to the 5N eaekeeing oe"ations,

+s+a&&! asked to mo + a*te" an (me"ian in'asion o")om)ing. It not on&! "e*+ses to s+)$et its so&die"s to the$+"isdition o* the @o"&d C"imina& Co+"t )+t its *ai&itiesto the inseto"s o* the Chemia& @eaons Con'ention, itsmi&ita"! to the santions o* the 6anti7 &and mines t"eat! andthe "o'isions o* the Com"ehensi'e Test=an T"eat!, andits ind+st"! to the en'i"onmenta& onst"aints o* the

P"otoo&, the "+&ings o* the @o"&d T"ade O"ganiation, andthe "igo"s o* g&o)a& inte&&et+a& "oe"t! "ights.


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Desite its instint+a& +ni&ate"a&ism, the 5nited States isne'e" a'e"se to e&oiting m+&ti&ate"a& instit+tions to itsends. It is the on&! sha"eho&de" -ith a 'eto o-e" in theInte"nationa& ?oneta"! >+nd 6I?>7, )! no- -ide&!onside"ed to ha'e degene"ated into a &ong a"m o* the(me"ian administ"ation. The 5nited Nations Se+"it!Co+ni&, "a+o+s "otestations aside, has "+))e"stamed(me"ian ma"tia& e&oits *"om Panama to I"aB.

It seems as tho+gh (me"ia +ses and th+s, e"*o"e,a)+ses the inte"nationa& s!stem *o" its o-n, e'e"

hanging, ends. Inte"nationa& &a- is in'oked )! it -henon'enient igno"ed -hen imo"t+ne.

In sho"t, (me"ia is a )+&&!. It is a &a- +nto itse&* and it&egis&ates on the *&!, t-isting a"ms and )"eaking )ones-hen *aed -ith oosition and igno"ing the 'e"! edits it"om+&gates at its on'eniene. Its so&die"s andeaekeee"s, its )anke"s and )+sinessmen, its t"ade"s and

di&omats a"e its &ong a"ms, an em)odiment o* this otentand ma&ignant mit+"e o* s+"ema! and ontemt.

=+t -h! is (me"ia )eing sing&ed o+t

In o&itis and e'en mo"e so in geoo&itis, do+)&estanda"ds and )+&&!ing a"e ommon. (a"theid So+th(*"ia, o&onia& >"ane, main&and China, ost1JK Is"ae& and 'i"t+a&&! e'e"! othe" o&it! -e"e at one time o"anothe" ha"ate"ied )! )oth. =+t -hi&e these o+nt"ies+s+a&&! mist"eated on&! thei" o-n s+)$ets the 5S( doesso a&so ete""ito"ia&!.


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E'en as it ne'e" eases to heto", "eah, hastise, andinst"+t it does not "eoi& *"om 'io&ating its o-n de"eesand igno"ing its o-n teahings. It is, the"e*o"e, not the5S(4s int"insi nat+"e, no" its se&*e"etion, o" soia&mode& that I *ind most "e"ehensi)&e )+t its ations,a"ti+&a"&! its *o"eign o&i!.

(me"ia4s mani*est h!o"is!, its mo"a& ta&k and o*tenimmo"a& -a&k, its e"sistent a&iation o* do+)&estanda"ds, i"ks and g"ates. I *i"m&! )e&ie'e that it is )ette"to *ae a *o"th"ight 'i&&ain than a masB+e"ading saint. It is

eas! to on*"ont a 8it&e", a Sta&in, o" a ?ao, 'i&e and)&oodied, i""edeema)&! de"a'ed, -o"th! on&! o*annihi&ation. The s+)t&eties o* oing -ith the 5nitedStates a"e *a" mo"e demanding and *a" &ess "e-a"ding.

This se&*"o&aimed hamion o* h+man "ights has aidedand a)etted o+nt&ess m+"de"o+s ditato"shis. Thisa&&eged sonso" o* *"ee t"ade is the most "otetionist o*

"ih nations. This ostensi)&e )eaon o* ha"it! ont"i)+tes &ess than 0.1 o* its ;DP to *o"eign aid6oma"ed to Sandina'ia4s 0.J, *o" instane7. This+"ight "oonent o* inte"nationa& &a- 6+nde" -hose aegisit )om)ed and in'aded ha&* a doen o+nt"ies this astdeade a&one7 is in a'o-ed oosition to "+ia& i&&a"so* the inte"nationa& o"de".

Nat+"a&&!, (me"ia4s enemies and "itis a"e en'io+s o* itsmight and -ea&th. The! -o+&d ha'e "o)a)&! ated thesame as the 5nited States, i* the! on&! o+&d. =+t(me"ia4s ha+ghtiness and o)t+se "e*+sa& to engage inso+& sea"hing and ho+se &eaning do &itt&e to ame&io"atethis antagonism.

To the eo&es o* the oo" -o"&d, (me"ia is )oth a

o&onia& o-e" and a me"anti&ist e&oite". To *+"the" itsgeoo&itia& and eonomi goa&s *"om Cent"a& (sia to the


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?idd&e East, it e"sists in )+tt"essing "egimes -ith sant"ega"d *o" h+man "ights, in ahoots -ith 'ena& andsometimes homiida& indigeno+s o&itiians. (nd it d"ainsthe de'e&oing -o"&d o* its )"ains, its &a)o+", and its "a-mate"ia&s, gi'ing &itt&e in "et+"n.

(&& o-e"s a"e se&*inte"ested )+t (me"ia is na"issisti.It is )ent on e&oiting and, ha'ing e&oited, ondisa"ding. It is a g&o)a& D". >"ankenstein, sa-ningm+tated monste"s in its -ake. Its d"ain and d+mo&iies onsistent&! )oome"ang to ha+nt it.

=oth Saddam 8+ssein and ?an+e& No"iega t-oakno-&edged monste"s -e"e aided and a)etted )! theCI( and the 5S mi&ita"!. (me"ia had to in'ade Panamato deose the &atte" and &ans to in'ade I"aB *o" the seondtime to *o"e the "emo'a& o* the *o"me".

The "ee and the
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8ome o* the ="a'e is an eonomia&&! se&*s+**iient andse&*ontained ontinent. Fet, it is not -hat (me"ianst"+st o" -ish that matte"s to othe"s. It is -hat the! do. (nd-hat the! do is medd&e, o*ten +ni&ate"a&&!, a&-a!signo"ant&!, sometimes *o"e*+&&!.

E&se-he"e, ine'ita)&e +ni&ate"a&ism is mitigated )!in&+si'e osmoo&itanism. It is eae")ated )!"o'inia&ism and (me"ian deisionmake"s a"e most&!"o'inia&s, o+&a"&! e&eted )! "o'inia&s. (s oosedto %ome, o" ;"eat ="itain, (me"ia is i&&s+ited and i&&

eB+ied to mi"omanage the -o"&d.It is too +e"i&e, too a)"asi'e, too a""ogant and it has a &otto &ea"n. Its "e*+sa& to akno-&edge its sho"tomings, itson*+sion o* )"ain -ith )"a-n 6i.e., mone! o" )om)s7, its&ega&isti&itigio+s ha"ate", its +&t+"e o* instantg"ati*iation and onedimensiona& o'e"sim&i*iation, itshea"t&ess &ak o* emath!, and )&oated sense o*

entit&ement a"e det"imenta& to -o"&d eae and sta)i&it!.


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(me"ia is o*ten a&&ed )! othe"s to inte"'ene. ?an!initiate on*&its o" "o&ong them -ith the e"ess +"oseo* d"agging (me"ia into the B+agmi"e. It then is eithe"astigated *o" not ha'ing "esonded to s+h a&&s o""e"imanded *o" ha'ing "esonded. It seems that it annot-in. ()stention and in'o&'ement a&ike ga"ne" it on&! i&&-i&&.

=+t eo&e a&& +on (me"ia to get in'o&'ed )ea+sethe! kno- it "ises to the ha&&enge. (me"ia sho+&d makeit +neB+i'oa&&! and +nam)ig+o+s&! &ea" that -ith the

eetion o* the (me"ias its so&e inte"ests "est inomme"e. It sho+&d make it eB+a&&! kno-n that it -i&&"otet its itiens and de*end its assets i* need )e )!*o"e.

Indeed, (me"ia4s and the -o"&d4s )est )et a"e a"e'e"sion to the ?on"oe and 6tehno&ogia&&! +dated7?ahan dot"ines. @i&son4s >o+"teen Points )"o+ght the

5S( nothing )+t t-o @o"&d @a"s and a Co&d @a"the"ea*te". It is time to disengage.


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Containing the United States

By'#r$ Sam %a&nin

Also pu+lished +y United ,ress International -U,I.

Also Read

In (od We Trust

Why Ameria is !ated

The Iraqi and the /adman

(od0s #iplomay and !uman Conflits

E+"oean inte&&et+a&s !ea"n *o" the m+t+a&&! e&+si'e:an (me"ia ontained and a "egimehanged I"aB. TheChinese a"e mo"e "agmati tho+gh, )o+nd )! -hat is&e*t o* thei" ?a"ism, the! sti&& as"i)e (me"ian )eha'io"to the i""eoni&a)&e ont"aditions inhe"ent in aita&ism.

The 5nited States is ime&&ed )! its eonom! and 'a&+esto -o"&d dominion, &aimed &ast -eek an ana&!sis tit&ed(me"ian Emi"e Stes 5 >o+"th Eansion in theomm+nist a"t!4s mo+thiee Peo&e4s Dai&!.Eansionism is an ete"na& theme in (me"ian histo"!and a main &ine "+nning th"o+gh its *o"eign o&i!.
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The ontemo"a"! 5S( is at+a&&! a &and)ased emi"e,om"ising the te""ito"ia& *"+its o* "e'io+s a"medon*&its -ith its neigh)o"s and *oes, o*ten one and thesame. The g&o)a& s"ead o* (me"ian in*&+ene th"o+gh its+&t+"e, o&itia& a&&ianes, siene and m+&tinationa&s isme"e&! an et"ao&ation o* a t"end t-o ent+"ies in themaking.

8o- did a sma&& o+nt"! s+eed to th+s t"ans*o"m itse&*

The ae" att"i)+tes (me"ia4s s+ess to its o&itia&sta)i&it!, neg&eting to mention its &+"a&ism and m+&ti

a"t! s!stem, the so+"es o* said end+"ane. =+t then, inan inte"esting dea"t+"e *"om the o**iia& a"t! &ine, it"aises 5S sienti*i and tehno&ogia& inno'ations andne- ahie'ements in eonomi de'e&oment. Some-hatta+to&ogia&&!, it a&so "edits (me"ia4s stat+s as an emi"eto its ete"na& eansions.

The "est o* the a"ti&e is, a&as, no )ette" "easoned, no"

)ette" in*o"med. (me"ian i&g"ims -e"e *o"ed -est-a"d)ea+se the! *o+nd the"e -as neithe" ti&e o'e" thei" headsno" a sek o* &and +nde" thei" *eet 6in the East Coast7.=+t it is the emhases that a"e o* inte"est, not the shodd!-o"kmanshi.

The a"ti&e &ea"&! identi*ies (me"ia4s 6aita&isti7eonom! and its 6&i)e"a&, &+"a&isti, "e&igio+s anddemo"ati7 'a&+es as its ometiti'e mainsta!s and*o+nts o* st"ength. 5S +niB+e omme"ia& eansionsi"it 6om)ined -ith the7 the +"itan4s 4onet o*mission4 6a"e its *o"tes7, g+shes the anon!mo+s a+tho".


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The ae" disting+ishes *o+" hases o* distension: >i"st,ontinenta& eansion stage seond, o'e"seas eansionstage thi"d, the stage o* g&o)a& ontention *o" hegemon!and *o+"th, the stage o* -o"&d domination. The seond,thi"d and *o+"th a"e main&! eonomi, +&t+"a& andmi&ita"!.

In an eho o* de*+nt So'iet and E+"o&e*t onsi"a!theo"ies, the ae" insists that eansion -as t"igge"ed)! omme"ia& aita&. This aita& )ette" kno-n in the@est as the mi&ita"!ind+st"ia& om&e a&so dete"mines

5S *o"eign o&i!. Th+s, the (me"ian Emi"e is &ose" tothe omme"ia&&! d"i'en ="itish Emi"e than to themi&ita"i&! "oe&&ed %oman one.

(t+a&&!, the a+tho" thinks a&o+d, isn4t (me"ia4s "eignme"e&! the s+esso" o* ="itain4s @asn4t it ohn #oke, a="itish hi&osohe", -ho said that eansion a nat+"a&"ight "esonds to domesti needs @asn4t it =en$amin

>"ank&in -ho &aimed that the 5nited States m+stonstant&! aB+i"e ne- &and to oen + &i'ing sae 6the*o"e"+nne" o* the in*amo+s ;e"man #e)ens"a+m7

The a+tho" B+otes ames e"ome 8i&&, the (me"ian"ai&-a! magnet, as e&aiming, d+"ing the 5SSanish@a", that I* !o+ "e'ie- the omme"ia& histo"!, !o+ -i&&diso'e" an!one -ho ont"o&s o"ienta& t"ade -i&& get ho&d

o* g&o)a& -ea&th. Th+s, 5S eansion -as one"nedmain&! -ith "oteting (me"ian omme"ia& monoo&!o" ad'antageo+s osition. (me"ia ente"ed the *i"st -o"&d-a" on&! -hen its *"ee t"ade osition -as ha&&enged,oines the "edto.


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(me"ian mo"a& 'a&+es a"e designed to se"'e omme"ia&aita&. This )&ending o* the si"it+a& -ith the e+nia"!is 'e"! diso"ienting. E'en the (me"ians themse&'es *indit ha"d to disting+ish -hih matte" is eanding nationa&inte"ests +nde" the )anne" o* 4en*o"ing $+stie on )eha&*o* 8ea'en4 and -hih is "oagating thei" ideo&og! andonet o* 'a&+e on the &ea o* nationa& inte"ests.

The ae" mentions the on'ition, he&d )! most(me"ians, that thei" s!stem and 'a&+es a"e the )estthings in h+man soiet!. ?o"eo'e", (me"ians a"e

missiona"ies -ith a mani*est destin! and the d+t! ando)&igation to he& othe" o+nt"ies and nations and tose"'e as the the )eaon &ighting + the -a! *o" thede'e&oment o* othe" o+nt"ies and nations. I* a&& e&se*ai&s, it *ee&s $+sti*ied to *o"e its )est things on othe"o+nt"ies )! the method o* C"+sades.

This is a atent&! nonO"thodo, non?a"istinte""etation o* histo"! and o* the "o&e o* the 5nitedStates the "ime seimen o* aita&ism in it. Eonom!,admits the a+tho", &a!s on&! one a"t in (me"ia4sasendane. T"i)+te m+st )e gi'en to its 'a&+es as -e&&.This 'ie- o* the 5nited States at the height o* aninte"nationa& "isis itting China against it is nothing i*not "e'o&+tiona"!.

(me"ian histo"! is "east as an ine'ita)&e "og"ession o*onent"i i"&es. (t *i"st, the 5nited States ated as a&assi o&onia& o-e", '!ing *o" "ea& estate *i"st -ithSain in #atin (me"ia and &ate" -ith the So'iet 5nion a&&o'e" the -o"&d. The ?a"sha&& P&an -as a &o! to makeE+"oe deendent on 5S &a"gesse. The O&d Continent,snee"s the ae", is nothing mo"e than 5S &itt&e a"tne".

No-, -ith the demise o* the 5SS%, )emoans theo&+mnist, the 5nited States ehi)its "ising hegemoni


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ai"s and does -hate'e" it &eased, on+""ent&! t-istingeonomi, +&t+"a& and mi&ita"! a"ms. Ine'ita)&! andeseia&&! a*te" Setem)e" 11, a&&s *o" an (me"ian ne-emi"e a"e on the "ise. I"aB -as hosen as the *i"st ta"get*o" this ne- "o+nd o* eansion.

=+t the eansionist d"i'e has )eome se&*de*eating:On&! -hen the 5nited States "e*"ains *"om taking the"oad o* +"s+ing g&o)a& emi"e, an it a'oid te""o"ists4)om)s o" othe" *o"ms o* attaks )e*a&&ing on its o-nte""ito"!, on&+des the oinion iee.

@hat is China + to Is this a"ti&e a signa& en"!ted inthe )est Co&d @a" t"adition

(nothe" ommenta"! +)&ished a *e- da!s &ate" ma!ontain the +)&i ke!. It is tit&ed The Pa"ado o*(me"ian Po-e". The a+tho" B+otes at &ength *"om ThePa"ado o* (me"ian Po-e" @h! the @o"&d4s On&!S+e"o-e" Can4t ;o It (&one -"itten )! oseh N!e,

the Dean o* the ohn >.


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(s it s+mma"ies N!e4s teahings, the tone o* the iee isa'+n+&a" and oni&iato"!, not en"aged o" at"oniing:

In toda!4s -o"&d, the 5nited States is no do+)t in an

ad'antageo+s osition -ith its ha"d o-e". =+t ... o-e"o&itis a&-a!s in'ite "esentment and the a"ado o*(me"ian o-e" is that the st"onge" the nation g"o-s, the-eake" its in*&+ene )eomes. (s the sa!ing goes, adange" to onese&* "es+&ts *"om an eess o* o-e" and ana+m+&ation o* mis*o"t+nes stems *"om &a'ish o* "aisesand *a'o"s. 8e, -hose o-e" g"o-s to s+h a s-e&&ing

state that he st"ikes an!)od! he -ants to and t+"ns a dea*ea" to othe"s4 ad'ie, -i&& +na'oida)&! +t himse&* in ast"aitened i"+mstane someda!. @hen one ind+&gesonese&* in -a"s o* agg"ession +nde" the "etet o* 4se&*se+"it!4 -i&& ossi)&! get, in "et+"n, mo"e *ato"s o*inse+"it! ... ?i&ita"! *o"es annot *+ndamenta&&! so&'e"o)&ems and -a" )ene*its no one in&+ding the -a"sta"te".

No" a"e these 'ie-s the "ese"'e o* the a"th"iti +e"ehe&ons o* the "ea"io+s&! )a&aned Chinese Comm+nista"t!.

In an inte"'ie- he g"anted to inh+a, the Chinese ne-sagen!, &ast -eek, Shen i"+, hie* o* the Di'ision o*

Inte"nationa& St"ateg! o* the Instit+te o* @o"&d Eonomisand Po&itis, Chinese (adem! o* Soia& Sienes,"eite"ated his on'ition that the 5nited States aims to"eate a +nio&a" -o"&d th"o+gh the I"aB iss+e.


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?i""o"ing the Peo&e4s Dai&!, he did not think that the&ooming I"aB -a" an )e enti"e&! e&ained as a dis+teon oi& o" eonomi inte"ests. It -as, he tho+ght, a)o+tthe *+t+"e mode& o* inte"nationa& o"de": a m+&tio&a" anddemo"ati one, o" the 5S st"ategi goa& o* a +nio&a"-o"&d. China has )een eno+"aged )! dissent in the @est.It sho-s that the m+&tio&a" inte"nationa& omm+nit! isan ine'ita)&e moment+m o* histo"!.

@h! this s+dden *&+""! o* histo"iosohi "+minations

(o"ding to St"at*o", the st"ategi *o"easting

ons+&tan!, *o" =ei$ing, the on&! -a! to st!mie the*o+"th hase is th"o+gh "omoting m+&ti&ate"a&ism )a""ingthat, China m+st )e "ea"ed to on*"ont the 5nited Statesin the *+t+"e, and 5.S. histo"! an gi'e some g+idane ...Th+s, =ei$ing ontin+es to *o+s on the onet o*m+&ti&ate"a&ism and the &egitima! o* the 5nited Nationsas the )est -a!s to s&o- o" e'en dis"+t 5.S.

eansionism. (t the same time, =ei$ing is "ea"ing to*ae a *+t+"e on*"ontation -ith the 5nited States i*neessa"!.

@hen its eonom! mat+"es, China -ants to )eomeanothe" 5nited States. It has sta"ted em+&ating (me"iat-o deades ago and ne'e" eased. %eent stes in&+deain*+& "i'atiation, "est"+t+"ing o* the )anking s!stem,

&aming do-n on o""+tion and )ad go'e"nane, a"ingdo-n the ent"a& )+"ea+"a!, "e'aming the mi&ita"! andse+"it! aa"at+s and "eating mehanisms *o" smootho&itia& t"ansitions.


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China &ans to send a man to the moon. It in'ests hea'i&!in )asi siene and "esea"h and de'e&oment. It ismo'ing g"ad+a&&! + the man+*at+"ing *ood hain tohighe" 'a&+e added ind+st"ies. It is the B+intessentia&&ea*"ogge", m+h o* its ad"e mo'ing st"aight *"om the"+sti to the &asti om+te"s, e&&+&a" hones, -i"e&essand the &ike.

I"onia&&!, it o+&d ne'e" ha'e made it e'en this *a"-itho+t its ostensi)&e *oe. Tho+sands o* )"ight Chinesest+dents t"ain in the 5nited states. (me"ian tehno&ogies,

management, kno-&edge, aita& and ma"keting e"meate=ei$ing4s eonomi *a)"i. =i&ate"a& t"ade is *&o+"ishing.China en$o!s the )iggest sha"e o* the -o"&d4s in &a"gea"t (me"ian *o"eign di"et in'estment *&o-s. Sho+&dthe 5nited states disinteg"ate tomo""o- China -o+&dass+"ed&! *o&&o-.


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Afghan /yths

An Inter)ie* *ith Anssi 1ull+erg

By'#r$ Sam %a&nin

Anssi Kristian Kullbergis "esent&! em&o!ed as a"esea"he" *o" the #ega& and Co+nt"! Inte&&igene Se"'ie,@este"n and Cent"a& (sia Desk, at the >innish Di"eto"ateo* Immig"ation. This inte"'ie- "e"esents his e"sona&'ie-s on&! and not those o* his em&o!e". On =&akT+esda!, 11th Setem)e", he -as in e"ghana Va&&e!, in a "eonst"+tiono* the &ate >innish ?a"sha& C.;.E. ?anne"heim4sinte&&igene eedition to T+"kistan and China in 10J10H.

Q: Was the Taliban the creation of Pakistan? Can ou

tell us about its for!ation and ho" "as Russia

involved in it?

A: The Ta&i)an -as not a "eation o* Pakistan, a&tho+ghPakistan -as among se'e"a& states that ont"i)+ted to thegenesis and de'e&oment o* this e+&ia" mo'ement. It ist"+e that the Ta&i)an 6-hih -as esta)&ished on&! as &ate asin 1G as a "e&igio+s mo'ement7 had a signi*iant in*&+*"om Pakistani mad"assas. =+t the Ta&i)an is not on&! anet"eme "e&igio+s mo'ement, )+t a&so an ethni Pasht+n

one. The Pasht+ns a"e a )it &ess than ha&* o* (*ghanistan4so+&ation, )+t in Pakistan the"e a"e 1J mi&&ion "esidentPasht+ns &+s 3 mi&&ion as "e*+gees. The"e a"e mo"ePasht+ns in Pakistan than in (*ghanistan no-ada!s. ThePakistanis in'o&'ed in (*ghanistan a"e in *at (*ghans.

The "o&e o* the Pakistani Is&amist oosition in the*o"mation and s+o"t o* the Ta&i)an is -ide&! "eo"ded.

=+t mo"e imo"tant a"e those -ho made it a mi&ita"!o-e". This is -he"e %+ssia ente"s the game, too. In o"de"
http://samvak.tripod.com/cv.htmlhttp://samvak.tripod.com/cv.htmlhttp://samvak.tripod.com/cv.html


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to +nde"stand the Ta&i)an, -e m+st "ea&& the )akg"o+ndsit+ation in (*ghanistan e'e" sine the e'ents in 1K0s.

The Ta&i)an is not mono&ithi. E'en &ess so is the

No"the"n (&&iane. Neithe" -e"e the (*ghan omm+nists+nited. This -as made e'ident )! the inte"na& o-e"st"+gg&es *o&&o-ing the o+sting o*


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+ o-e", the omm+nist gene"a&s o* the a"m! and o*


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(s "ega"ds the Ta&i)an, it -as nothing seia& -hen the!took o'e"


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Pe"has )ea+se o* this immense&! in*&+entia& in*&+ intothe Ta&i)an, thei" inte""etation o* Is&am is B+ite a&ien *o"most o* the -o"&d4s ?+s&ims, )+t &ose&! "esem)&es theinte""etation o* Is&am that the omm+nists and %+ssiaha'e t"aditiona&&! eso+sed in thei" antiIs&ami"oaganda.

The deisi'e st"engthening o* the Ta&i)an took &ae in1R1J, -hen it -as seen as a sta)i&iing *o"e in(*ghanistan. This -as a g"eat *a&&a! )ased on theTa&i)an4s s+ess in


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D+"ing the same !ea"s, the Ta&i)an "eei'ed sia)&e a"meds+o"t. It did not ome main&! *"om Pakistan. >inania&s+o" ame *"om Sa+di ("a)ia. =+t the most deisi'ein"ease in the Ta&i)an4s st"ength ame *"om %+ssia: thede*etions o* the


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@hen the Co&d @a" -as de&a"ed o'e" )! the @est, it didnot sto e&se-he"e. (*te" 1H the @est "ea&&! &ost inte"estin (*ghanistan and +nti& some months )e*o"e his death?asso+d -as t"!ing to aea& to it in 'ain. The @est -as+ninte"ested, )+t othe"s -e"e. Pakistan, o* o+"se, -asinte"ested in the goings on in its +nsta)&e neigh)o". Sa+di("a)ia -as *inaning and s+o"ting dange"o+s S+nni*+ndamenta&ist g"o+s, and &ate" the Ta&i)an. The Sa+disa&so "o'ided them -ith thei" o-n Sa+di *anatis that had)eome t"o+)&esome at home. I"an -as s+o"ting its o-nagents -ithin (*ghan Shia g"o+s. (nd the So'iet 5nion

and &ate" %+ssia ontin+ed to "o'ide massi'e a"meds+o"t to the &ast omm+nist ditato" o* (*ghanistan,Na$i)+&&ah, and &ate" to the noto"io+s ;ene"a& Dost+m.

The %+ssian "ini&e -as di'ide and "+&e, -ith the)asi idea o* keeing the @est o+t and ass+"ing that the"egion -o+&d not st"engthen so that the So'iet emi"eo+&d "et+"n one it has "egained its mi&ita"! might.=ea+se o* this st"atagem, %+ssia has s+o"ted the Ta$ikso* the No"the"n (&&iane th"o+gh Ta$ikistan on&!s+**iient&! to *o"m a )+**e" one against the Ta&i)an, )+t-itho+t )eing a)&e to gain s+)stantia& 'ito"ies o" tointe"'ene in Ta$ikistan. ?o"eo'e", %+ssia has )een a"mingand s+o"ting the 5)eks +nde" the ommand o* Dost+mand ;ene"a& ?a&ik -ho &ate" de*eted to the Ta&i)an4s

side. This s+o"t has )een di"eted th"o+gh 5)ekistanand sti&& ontin+es i"onia&&!, -ith the @est4s *+&&)&essing. #ess kno-n has )een the %+ssian s+o"tdi"eted th"o+gh T+"kmenistan to the Ta&i)an, and to theIs&ami ?o'ement o* 5)ekistan that is said to th"eaten


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A: ( h"oni *eat+"e o* (me"ian inte&&igene o&i!seems to )e histo"ia& amnesia and ina)i&it! to see theom&e nat+"e o* on*&its and &oa& "e&ationshis. This-as a&so mani*ested d+"ing the So'iet o+ation o*(*ghanistan. ="itish inte&&igene and a"t o* the Pakistaniinte&&igene omm+nit! &ashed -ith the 5S a&"ead!d+"ing the Co&d @a" e"iod, )ea+se the! -anted tos+o"t (hmad Shah ?asso+d, the #ion o* Pan$shi". It-as ?asso+d and his m+$aheddin -ho *ina&&!, a*te"getting Stinge"s *"om the ="itish, managed to make the-a" too eensi'e *o" the So'iets, *o"ing them to "et"eat

in 1H.

?ean-hi&e, the CI( -as inometent eno+gh to )edeendent on the Pakistani inte&&igene se"'ies that,eseia&&! in Qia +&8aB4s e"iod, *a'o"ed ;+&)+ddin8ekmat!a", a omo+s *ig+"e -ho &aimed to ha'eetensi'e ontats th"o+gho+t the Is&ami -o"&d. 8eindeed had some ontats, in&+ding -ith Osama )in#aden, )+t he -as onside"ed to )e a


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8ekmat!a" -as in'o&'ed in s+o"ting "o%+ssian#eghin te""o"ists in the Ca+as+s. 8ekmat!a" is sti&&ati'e. 8e &i'es in Tehe"an, and has "eent&! *ina&&!"e'ea&ed his t"+e o&o"s )! siding -ith the Ta&i)an.

(s *a" as I kno-, Osama )in #aden -as ne'e" a CI(agent. 8o-e'e", the"e a"e "e&ati'e&! &a+si)&e &aims thathe -as &ose to Sa+di inte&&igene, eseia&&! to the"eent&! *i"ed inte&&igene hie* P"ine T+"ki )in >aia&,+nti& the! )"oke +.

Osama *i"st aea"ed in the (*ghan @a" theate" eithe" in

1K, o", at the &atest in 1HG. =+t at the )eginning he -as*i"st and *o"emost a )+sinessman. 8e se"'ed the inte"estso* those -ho -ished to onst"+t "oads aessi)&e *o"tanks to "oss th"o+gh (*ghanistan to the Indian Oean.This might a&so e&ain his ha"ate"isti oo"t+nism B+ite at!ia& *o" a se&*"o&aimed -a""io" o* *aith.

Inte"nationa& $ihadists s+"e&! -ant to o"t"a! him as a

"e&igio+s *ighte" o" ?+s&im he"o, )+t this is not the t"+eit+"e, )+t, most&!, a m!th "eated )! the @este"n media.This is -he"e ("a), Pakistani and Indonesian teenage"s&ea"n that Osama is a *ighte" in a +ni'e"sa& st"+gg&e o*Is&am against its o"esso"s.


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=+t )in #aden ne'e" *o+ght the So'iets to &i)e"ate(*ghanistan. >o" most o* this e"iod, he -as not e'en in(*ghanistan. 8e -as managing an o**ie in Pesha-a", andthe on&! "edi)&e &aim a)o+t him )eing in a )att&e has)een made )! the *o"me" CI( o**iia& ?i&ton =ea"denone"ning a mino" ski"mish that took &ae in s"ing1HK.

=in #aden4s *i"st signi*iant ontat in Pesha-a" -as thePa&estinian P"o*esso" ()d+&&ah (am, -hom )in #adenhas &ate" des"i)ed as his mento". (am -as an ("a)

idea&ist, -ho -anted to onent"ate on the &i)e"ation o*(*ghanistan, and -ho -anted to s+o"t ?asso+d, -homhe o""et&! "ega"ded as )eing the "ight e"son to +ho&d.=in #aden disag"eed. 8e -anted to s+o"t the dis&o!a&Is&amist *anati 8ekmat!a". (s a "es+&t, (am and hisson -e"e )&o-n + in a a" )om) in 1H, andonseB+ent&!, )in #aden took o'e" his o"ganiation andt"ans*o"med it into (&aida 6the =ase7.

(&"ead! )e*o"e these e'ents, he sta"ted to t"ans*o"m theagen! )! *&ooding it -ith his ("a) ontats *"om the?idd&e East. These ("a)s -e"e not inte"ested in &i)e"ating(*ghanistan as m+h as in hiding *"om the &a-en*o"ement agenies o* thei" o-n o+nt"ies, most o* a&&Eg!t4s.

@hen %+ssia attaked Ta$ikistan, )in #aden and his *o&ks-e"e )! no means inte"ested in &i)e"ating Ta$ikistan *"oma ne- omm+nist !oke. Instead, )in #aden &e*t(*ghanistan and dise"sed his te""o"ist net-o"k, di"etingit to at against the @est.


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It is )ia""e that a man &aiming to )e an Is&ami*+ndamenta&ist s+o"ted the in'asion )! the ("a)soia&ist 6and the"e)! atheist7 I"aB against


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it is eB+a&&! the )+**e" that stos these enemies. Pakistan4sis inte"ested in "egiona& sta)i&it! -hi&e its enemies seek to+se an! insta)i&it! against it. The"e is a g"eat di'ide -ithinPakistan )et-een Pakistani nationa&ists andinte"nationa&ist Is&amists. Pakistan is "e&ati'e&! demo"atioma"ed -ith its neigh)o"s e'en in&+ding India,onside"ing its t"eatment o* mino"ities and the


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the otentia& to )eome a So+th (sian s+e"o-e" -ith&a+si)&e eansionist hanes. Fet this has ne'e" "ea&&!)een an asi"ation o* Pakistan. #ike T+"ke! +nde" (tat+"k,Pakistan +nde" s+h &eade"s as (!+)


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#+ki&! *o" @este"n inte"ests, ;ene"a& Pe"'e ?+sha""a*took o'e". This takeo'e" -as the )est e'ent in Pakistanihisto"! as *a" as the @est is one"ned, a&tho+gh it -assad&! igno"ed in the @est d+"ing the C&intonadminist"ation. ?+sha""a* -as o"t"a!ed as a mi&ita"!ditato" and a s+o"te" o* the a+ses o* the Ta&i)an and o*an a&&iane -ith China 6a&& sins o* his "edeesso"s7.?+sha""a* is "o*o+nd&! "o@este"n, se+&a" in mind and"agmati in *o"eign o&i!. 8e in *at t"ied to *o"monst"+ti'e "e&ationshis -ith a&& the neigh)o"ingo+nt"ies 6I"an, India and (*ghanistan7. 8is eae

initiati'es in


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in*i&t"ated and ont"o&&ed. Then the! sa- it as a )+"den.S+"e&! the ISI -ished to ont"o& and ontain the Ta&i)an,)+t thei" s+ess has )een "athe" do+)t*+& 6as has )eenothe"s47. ?an! ana&!sts ha'e aid attention to the *at that(*ghan as -e&& as non(*ghan ad'ent+"e"s &ike )in #aden,ha'e a&-a!s )een 'e"! ta&ented at e&oiting thes+""o+nding states as -e&& as )oth s+e"o-e"s.

(nothe" disto"ted m!th is "oagated )! India. It is thatthe


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the most "+ia& inte"est o* the @est to "e'ent India *"omesa&ating the


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?an! o* these sha"e the same o&d )akg"o+nd in ?a"istinsi"ed "e'o&+tiona"! mo'ements in the ?idd&e East.Ideo&og! and *aade ha'e hanged -hen g"een "e&aed"ed, )+t thei" methods as -e&& as *o"eign ontats ha'emain&! "emained the same. This is -h! the! a"e m+hmo"e inte"ested in attaking the @est and "o@este"n?+s&im "egimes than in s+o"ting an! t"+e nationa&&i)e"ation mo'ements. E'en i* the! t"! to in*i&t"ate andin*&+ene on*&it o+tomes in the =a&kans, the Ca+as+s,East T+"kistan and


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*ations and t"i)es and thei" sons and da+ghte"s ha'e, int+"n, ma""ied the o**s"ing o* eminent (*ghan &eade"s.This is ho- the! se+"ed thei" *ootho&d in (*ghan soia&net-o"ks something neithe" the @est no" Pakistans+eeded to do. @hen iss+es a"e "ed+ed to *ami&!"e&ationshis, it is not to )e eeted that the (*ghans-o+&d hand o'e" the ("a)s to the @est o" to Pakistan. (&aida is not on&! *o"ti*!ing itse&* h!sia&&!, )+t a&sosoia&&!. (t the same time thei" e&&s and o+nt&esso&&a)o"ating agenies some o* -hom a"e &ea"&! nonIs&amist, and some o* -hih a"e go'e"nment agenies o*

e"tain hosti&e states a"e hoing to esa&ate this -a"against te""o"ism and to e&oit it *o" thei" o-n +"oses.

Q: .o ou believe that the /%A had long standing

designs to con0uer Afghanistan and used the

%e&te!ber 11 atrocities as a &rete2t?

A: I -o+&d "athe" sa! that some)od! e&se had &ong

standing designs *o" a ma$o" on*&it in -hih it -asneessa"! to get the 5S in'o&'ed. Those -ho -ied o+t?". ?asso+d a o+&e o* da!s )e*o"e the te""o" st"ikes inthe 5S "o)a)&! kne- that the te""o"ists -i&& )e h+nted in(*ghanistan.

It is &ea" that the 5S, among man! othe"s, has &ongdesi"ed to o'e"th"o- the Ta&i)an, and I see nothing -"ong

-ith it. (*ghanistan -as the easiest ta"get, )ea+se theTa&i)an -as not inte"nationa&&! "eognied 6eet )!th"ee o+nt"ies at the )eginning o* the -a"7, and )ea+sethe"e -as no)od! st"ong eno+gh to "ea&&! side -ith theTa&i)an.


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The"e -as no seia& need to demonie them, as the!seemed to ha'e done a good $o) demoniing themse&'es.The @est -as mo"e one"ned -ith the )&o-ing + ao+&e o* =+ddha stat+es than -ith the tho+sands o*'itims o* the Ta&i)an4s t!"ann! and o* the i'i& -a" thatontin+ed to "age in (*ghanistan a&& this time tota&&!igno"ed )! the @este"n media +nti& the 5S got in'o&'edagain. The 5S an, o* o+"se, )e )&amed *o" h!o"is!, asa&-a!s, )+t the t"+th is that getting the 5S in'o&'ed hasg"eat&! he&ed those in (*ghanistan -ho had hoed *o"deades to o'e"th"o- the Ta&i)an.

It is a&so B+ite s+""ising that e'en ?+sha""a*4s Pakistanseems to ha'e at+a&&! )ene*ited *"om the "esent o+"seo* a**ai"s, sine te""o"ism has gi'en ?+sha""a* the "eteto* oen&! siding -ith the @est, and a)andoning a&&"emnants o* Pakistan4s to&e"ane o* the Ta&i)an.

Sti&& I -o+&d )e in&ined against an! onsi"ato"ia&

deition o* the "eent e'ents that -o+&d )&ame the 5S *o"a&& that haened. The 5S had to "eat, and (*ghanistan-as a &ogia& ta"get. In this sense, the 5S did -hat thete""o"ists -anted. =+t the! did so in a m+h mo"emode"ate -a!, and a*te" m+h &onge" "ea"ations thanthei" enemies had "o)a)&! hoed *o". One "eason is thatin the =+sh administ"ation the"e seems to )e signi*iant&!

mo"e *o"eign o&itia& ee"tise than in the C&intonadminist"ation that hasti&! )om)ed a o+&e o* ta"gets,in&+ding a *ato"! in S+dan, )+t a&-a!s *ai&ed to "esondto the "ea& ha&&enge.


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In the &ong "+n, the th"eat osed )! te""o"ism -i&& not )ede*eated )! mi&ita"! oe"ations and not in (*ghanistan.@hat an )e done the"e is $+st the "emo'a& o* the Ta&i)an"egime and he&ing to onst"+t a sta)&e and "eognied(*ghan go'e"nment. It is imo"tant to gi'e se+"it!g+a"antees to Pakistan and to s+o"t the de'e&omentthat is t"ans*o"ming Pakistan into a st"ong and "e&ati'e&!sta)&e "o@este"n ?+s&im o+nt"! that an &a! a simi&a""o&e in Cent"a& and So+the"n (sia as T+"ke! does in the@est and ?idd&e East. (t )est, this o+&d e'en eno+"agea ?+sha""a* to "ise in I"an, -hih -o+&d !ie&d +&timate

)ene*its to @este"n inte"ests in (sia.

=+t then, te""o"ism m+st )e *o+ght )! othe" means.

This means that @este"n inte&&igene m+st "ise to the &e'e&o* the Co&d @a" to *ae ha&&enges )! te""o"isto"ganiations as -e&& as )! o&&+ding go'e"nments.

The @est m+st a&so "esist 8+ntington4s 'ision oming

t"+e, sine this is eat&! -hat the te""o"ists -ant: a &asho* i'i&iations. (nd -e m+st kee in mind that the"e a"ea&so man! othe"s -ho -o+&d &ike to see a -o"&d-ideon*&ag"ation )et-een the @est and Is&am.

Q: What is the geostrategic and geo&olitical

i!&ortance of Afghanistan?

A: (*ghanistan is not so signi*iant in itse&*, i* -e on&!onside" eonomi inte"ests. O* mo"e imo"tane a"esome o+nt"ies sit+ated nea" (*ghanistan, eseia&&! thosein Cent"a& (sia and (e")ai$an.


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(*ghanistan is a&so a t"aditiona& )+**e" one, sine its&andsae is ha"d to enet"ate *o" tanks and mode"na"mies. It has "e'ented the eansion o* the E+"asian8ea"t&and Emi"e to-a"ds E+"asia4s so+the"n "im &ands*o" ent+"ies. It has "oteted the a"eas in&+ded inPakistan and India toda!, )+t on the othe" hand, t+"ning(*ghanistan into a o&itia&&! o" mi&ita"i&! ati'e a"ea -as+sed to desta)i&ie Pakistan, o" Cent"a& (sia, in o"de" toa&te" the stat+s B+o, -hate'e" it -as.

%ega"ding oi&, (*ghanistan again *o"ms a )"idge o" a

)a""ie". (s &ong as I"an is "ega"ded as a hosti&e o+nt"! )!the 5S, (*ghanistan *o"ms an oi& t"anso"t "o+te *"omCent"a& (sia to Pakistan. (s &ong as the"e is -a" in(*ghanistan, it "emains a )a""ie" "e'enting the o+nt"ieso* the Casian Sea *"om )ene*iting *"om thei" oi&. @a"s inthe Ca+as+s ha'e eat&! the same o+tome. @hi&e thisis the ase, on&! %+ssia and e"has China -i&& ha'eaess to and hegemon! o'e" the ene"g! "eso+"es in the'ast E+"asian hea"t&and.

I think this is the main geoo&itia& imo"tane o* )oth(*ghanistan and the Ca+as+s. It is the B+estion o* %+ssiamonoo&iing the geoo&itia& hea"t&and, *i"st and*o"emost. Conside"ing the o&ossa& -eight o* geoo&itisand geoo&itia& tho+ght in "esent %+ssian se+"it!

thinking, these im&iations annot )e o'e"estimated.Q: Can Turke be dra"n into the conflict and) if es)

"hat effect "ill this have on #ran) Central Asia) and

3AT4?


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A: It seems T+"ke! has )een d"a-n into it a&"ead!. O""athe", T+"ke! has 'o&+ntee"ed to )e d"a-n into it. I"anand %+ssia, o* o+"se, sha"e a 'e"! hosti&e attit+de to-a"dsan! eansion o* T+"kish in*&+ene in Cent"a& (sia andthe Ca+as+s. T+"ke! and Pakistan, on the othe" hand,ma! *ina&&! *ind eah othe" a*te" a &ong e"iod o* m+t+a&hosti&it!. The! )oth sha"e a simi&a" geoo&itia&imo"tane as otentia& g+a"dians o* the @est. The! a"eamong the most imo"tant "im &and nations, to )o""o- ah"ase *"om &assia& geoo&itis. This means that the! a"ea&so the most imo"tant )a""ie"s on the -a! o* a hea"t&and

emi"e to asi"e to so&e E+"asian hegemon!.

T+"ke! has so+ght to ad'oate its inte"ests in Cent"a& (sia,-he"e most o* the T+"kistani nations a"e ethnia&&! T+"ki6that is, 5)eks, T+"kmens, T+"ke!4s eonomi "o)&ems and gene"a&&! o'e"&!a+tio+s *o"eign o&i! ha'e g"eat&! +nde"mined its

aait! to ad'oate its o-n and @este"n inte"ests inCent"a& (sia. ?o"eo'e", the Cent"a& (sian ditato"s ha'einte""eted the T+"kish mode& in most e+&ia" -a!s,)eing o*ten &ose" to the Chinese mode& than the T+"kishone.


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I think T+"ke! is again t"!ing to "o'e ho- "o@este"n itis and ho- &o!a& it is to N(TO. The @est has +s+a&&! )eenm+h &ess &o!a& to T+"ke!. @hen it omes to N(TO4sin*&+ene in Cent"a& E+"asia, one (*ghanistan is ai*iedand 5S "esene "o)a)&! st"engthened th"o+gh5)ekistan 6tho+gh it is one o* the noto"io+s&! dis&o!a&a&&ies o* an! @este"n inte"est, m+h "esem)&ing the "o&e&a!ed )! Sa+di ("a)ia7, it is time to ome to ;eo"gia4s"es+e again. The @est had )ette" not )e too &ate inoming to the aid o* ;eo"gia and (e")ai$an, -hih a"e)oth +nde" se"io+s %+ssian "ess+"e "ight no-. I* the

=ak+Ce!han ie&ine an )e om&eted, then it o+&d )etime *o" a ma$o" "e*o"m in I"an as -e&&.


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,a&istan0s 2ie 3ittle War

By'#r$ Sam %a&nin


Ca+sing t"o+)&e is sometimes a "o*ita)&e )+siness. TheTa&i)an is, to a &a"ge etent, the "eation o* Pakistan. Fet,it stands to )ene*it g"eat&!, eonomia&&! as -e&& aso&itia&&!, *"om the dest"+tion o* the Ta&i)an at the handso* the antite""o" oa&ition. In the "oess, its a+tonomo+sand ont+maio+s inte&&igene se"'ies kee s+&!ing the

Ta&i)an -ith *ood and -eaons. The go'e"nment denieseithe" kno-&edge o" "esonsi)i&it! )+t the )o"de" "emainso"o+s, to the eonomi )ene*it o* man!.

The se&*aointed P"esident o* Pakistan, ;ene"a& Pe"'e?+sha""a*, said a *e- months ago that Pakistan -as onthe "oad to eonomi "eo'e"!. This -as inomati)&e-ith a sim+&taneo+s o**iia& "ed+tion in the eonomi

g"o-th ta"get o* o+nt"! 6*"om G.R to 3.H7. =+t, in?a!, Pakistan4s de)t -as )eing "eshed+&ed -ith the)&essings o* the I?> 6-hih ont"i)+ted 200 mi&&ion 5Sdo&&a"s to the e**o"t7 and the @o"&d =ank 6in the "oess o*a"o'ing MK00 mi&&ion in so*t &oans7. Fet anothe" Pa"isC&+) "eshed+&ing seemed imminent.

T-o months &ate", ta&k -as in the ai" a)o+t a

m+&tinationa&&!managed nat+"a& 6non&iB+e*ied7 gasie&ine *"om I"an to India, th"o+gh Pakistani te""ito"!.The Eonomist 6+&! 1G, 20017 estimated that ... theie&ine might !ie&d Pakistan an!thing *"om M2R0m toMJ00m a !ea" in t"ansit *ees.

The"e -as a+se *o" this otimism.

To thei" "edit, ?+sha""a*4s ski&&ed eonomi team o*tehno"ats -ent -he"e thei" "edeesso"s *ea"ed to t"ead.The! imosed a high&! +no+&a" and m+h "otested
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against sa&es ta on a&& "etai& t"ade. ?+sha""a* th"eatenedto im"ison ta e'ade"s and de)t de*a+&te"s and )aked histh"eat -ith 6onstit+tiona&&! d+)io+s7 a""ests. Theimmediate "es+&t -as that ta o&&etion 6)! theo+t&andish&! o""+t ta a+tho"ities7 in"eased )! . MH00mi&&ion in the 12 months to +ne 30, 2001 6the end o* thePakistani *isa& !ea"7 tho+gh most&! *"om imo"tinhi)iting eo")itant +stoms and indi"et taes.

>+nds, do&ed o+t )! o""+t )ank manage"s to de*+ntente""ises and +sed to "o&& o'e" )ad &oans -e"e

s+dden&! "ea&&ed. The hithe"to s!m)o&i "ies o* o*t-asted and o*tsto&en oi&, gas, and e&et"iit! -e"eg"ad+a&&! in"eased and s+)sidies to stateo-ned +ti&ities6s+h as otton mi&&s7 de"eased. This )"o+ght a)o+t a)e&ated -a'e o* ain*+& "est"+t+"ing and Pakistan4ssham)o&i and at"onage)ased ind+st"ies a&moste'ao"ated. Se"io+s "i'atiation is on the a"ds. Thehone oman! is + *o" g"a)s and a&& "i'atiation"oeeds 6otimists +t them at M3 )i&&ion, "ea&ists at a)i&&ion do&&a"s &ess7 a"e ea"ma"ked to a! o** *o"eign de)t.The )+dget de*iit sta)i&ied a"o+nd R o* ;DP6oma"ed to J.R the !ea" )e*o"e7, aided )! a +t inde*ene sending 6-hih "eahed J in 1K )+tdete"io"ated e'e" sine oma"ed to India, -hose de*enesending in"eased )! G0 in the same e"iod7. Desite

g"o-ing ene"g! osts, in*&ation -as tamed, do-n to G620007 *"om H 617.

Fet, ta "e'en+es a"e sti&& &ess than 1K o* ;DP and &essthan 1.R o* a&& taa!e"s )othe" to *i&e ta "et+"ns o* an!kind. In othe" -o"ds, these &a"ge&! osmeti meas+"es*ai&ed to tak&e the s!stemi *ai&+"e that asses *o"Pakistan4s eonom!. %e*o"m )oth eonomi and o&itia& -as sti&& s&+ggish and ha&*hea"ted, Pakistan4s +""entao+nt de*iits )a&&ooned 6to M3 )i&&ion in 17, the


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geoo&itia& neigh)o+"hood "o+ghened, and the -o"&deonom! di'ed. Pakistan4s imminent eonomi o&&ase&ooked ine'ita)&e.

Then ame Setem)e" 11. @eeks &ate", 5S santionsimosed on Pakistan sine 10 and 1H 6*o&&o-ing itsn+&ea" tests7 -e"e -ai'ed )! P"esident =+sh and he"eshed+&ed MG00 mi&&ion in Pakistani de)t to 'a"io+sagenies o* the 5S administ"ation. The "edited -a'e -hih has !et to mate"ia&ie o* 1.R mi&&ion (*ghan"e*+gees -as -o"th to Pakistan MJ00 mi&&ion in 5S aid

a&one 6M1R0 mi&&ion o* -hih -e"e a&"ead! dis)+"sed7.The I?> ostensi)&! an indeendent o"ganiation )ent oneonomi "e*o"m and ime"'io+s to geoo&itia& one"ns s-i*t&! s-ithed *"om tentati'e a"o'a& 6the seondt"anhe o* the a&most t-entieth I?> &oan -as a"o'ed in(+g+st, )e*o"e the attaks7 to +nmitigated "aise"ega"ding Pakistan4s eonomi 6mis7management. The

M200 mi&&ion it so "e&+tant&! "omised in ?a! and the M1)i&&ion a !ea" 6*o" a e"iod o* 23 !ea"s7 Pakistan -ashoing to se+"e in (+g+st g&ee*+&&! m+sh"oomed to M2.R3.R )i&&ion in Oto)e". The "+ee shot + in "esonse. De)t*o"gi'eness is dis+ssed -ith Pakistan ao"ded a stat+s o*8IPC 8igh&! Inde)ted Poo" Co+nt"! -hih it,othe"-ise, doesn4t dese"'e, on +"e ma"oeonomi

g"o+nds.Conside" this:

On Setem)e" 10, eah itien o* Pakistan, man, -oman,and in*ant, o-ed on&! M300 in ete"na& go'e"nment de)t.This "e"esented a me"e J0 o* ;DP e" aita 6o" R3o* ;DP7 in 1K. On that same !ea", Pakistan4s ;DP e"aita -as 2R highe" than India4s, a'e"age ;DP g"o-th

in the t-o deades to 1K -as R.K .a. 6India R.H7,and it -as "ated 3.G 6India 3.K7 on the eonomi *"eedom


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inde. (*te" a di in 1 63.17 g"o-th iked +again to G.R , *+e&&ed )! )+me" otton and -heat "osin 2000. Pakistani itiens had as man! d+"a)&es asIndians. De*inite&! not an 8IPC, Pakistan is an eme"gingmidd&e&ass east (sian o+nt"!.

(dmitted&!, tho+gh, the it+"e is not enti"e&! "os!.

Pakistan4s ete"na& de)t main&! +sed to *inaneons+mtion and to &+g ho&es in its +ninte""+ted st"ingo* +ns+staina)&e go'e"nment )+dgets -as do+)&e India4s6as "oo"tion o* ;DP7 and it had on&! G o* India4s

*o"eign ehange "ese"'es 6. M1 )i&&ion, eno+gh *o" th"ee-eeks o* imo"ts7. Pe" aita, it had 30 as m+h asIndia4s *o"eign ehange "ese"'es. (s de*a+&t &oomed,g"o-th o&&ase to 2.J in 1R2000, )a"e&! eno+gh tos+stain the in"ease in o+&ation. The +s+a& I?>"es"ition 6a+ste"it!7 se"'ed on&! to de"essons+mtion and dete" >DI. >o"eign di"et in'estment

-as identia& in )oth 2000 and 1HH a meage" M1H0mi&&ion 6&ess than >DI in


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?an! ostensi)&! +)&i goods *"om )+s se"'ies toshoo&s, *"om &inis to o&iing, *"om +)&i toi&ettes to*a"ming a"e a**o"da)&! "o'ided )! domesti, sma&&time, ent"e"ene+"s o*ten aided )! N;O4s.

Fet, an eonom! is mo"e than the s+m o* its statistis. (*ai&ed, *ee)&e, assi'eagg"essi'e ent"a& go'e"nment is&a"ge&! s+&anted in Pakistan )! "imina&&!tainted"egiona& o&itia& net-o"ks o* at"onage, 'ena&it!,neotism, and "on!ism. ?o"e than R0 o* a&& *ood aidma! )e sB+ande"ed, taed )! &oa& *+ntiona"ies.

Teahe"s a! shoo&maste"s a o"tion o* sa&a"ies not toteah. ?aintenane -o"ke"s, sanita"! sB+ads, te&ehoneinsta&&e"s, media& doto"s, s+"geons, "o*esso"s in+ni'e"sities, o&iemen a&& demand, and "eei'e, )"i)esto *+&*i&& thei" d+ties, o", mo"e o*ten, to t+"n a )&ind e!e.Pakistan ha)it+a&&! t"ai&s the The 5NDP4s 8+manDe'e&oment Inde 6-hih takes into ao+nt the B+a&it!o* &i*e things &ike &i*e eetan!, &ite"a!, and gende"and inome ineB+a&ities7. This disma& sho-ing is a*te"Pakistan made st"ides in &ite"a!, &i*e eetan! andde"easing in*ant mo"ta&it!.

Sine indeendene in 1GK, Pakistan4s ;NP hasB+ad"+&ed and inome e" aita has do+)&ed. =+t it sti&&sends mo"e on de*ene than on hea&th and ed+ation

om)ined and &ess than most de'e&oing o+nt"ies. The)othed ee"iments -ith Is&ami eonom! did nothe&. Pakistan, &ike e"tain )e&&es, sti&& s+"'i'es on thekindness o* othe"s "emittanes )! eat"iates and othe"ete"na& aita& *&o-s ao+nt *o" 10 o* ;DP and R0o* domesti in'estment. (nd the main eo"t o* thiso+nt"! is its ski&&ed mano-e" desite its s+""ising&!di'e"se eonom!. #ess than one thi"d o* Pakistanis )othe"to 'ote a &ea" and sad statement )! a)stention.


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The Afghan Trip

The Eonomy of Afghanistan

By'#r$ Sam %a&nin


I$ The ,oppy 4ields

Consi"a! theo"ists in the =a&kan ha'e &ong se+&atedon the t"+e nat+"e o* the (&)anian +"ising in ?aedonia.(o"ding to them, (*ghanistan -as a)o+t to *&oodE+"oe -ith hea oi+m th"o+gh the t"aditiona& =a&kan

"o+tes. The


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It is i"oni that the Ta&i)an o&&a)o"ation -ith the 5nitedNations O**ie *o" D"+g Cont"o& and C"ime P"e'ention65NODCCP7 +&minated this !ea" in the 'i"t+a&e"adiation o* a&& oi+m oies in (*ghanistan. On&! 1Hmonths ago, (*ghan oi+m "od+tion 6. GJ00 tonnes a!ea"7 ao+nted *o" K0 o* -o"&d ons+mtion 6in the*o"m o* he"oin7. The shi*t 6a"t&! *o"ed on the Ta&i)an )!an +n+s+a& &imate7 *"om oies to e"ea&s 6that sta"ted in1K7 -as th+s om&eted s+ess*+&&!.

II$ Agriulture

(*ghanistan is not a mono&ithi entit!. It is a mo+ntaino+sand dese"t te""ito"! 6. 2R1,000 sB. mi&es in sie, &ess than10 o* it +&ti'ated7. (dminist"ati'e&! and o&itia&&!, it is"eminisent o* Soma&ia. The Ta&i)an go'e"nment no-"eognied on&! )! Pakistan "+&es the ma$o"it! o* theo+nt"! as a se"ies o* t"i)a& *ie*doms. The o+nt"! "+ined)! a deade o* -a"*a"e )et-een ma$o"it! P+sht+ns and

mino"it! Ta$iks and 5)eks in the no"th &aks a&&instit+tions, o" in*"ast"+t+"e. In an eonom! o*s+)sistene ag"i+&t+"e and t"ading, mi&&ions 6+ to onethi"d o* a o+&ation o* 2K mi&&ion7 ha'e )een inte"na&&!dis&aed o" "ende"ed "e*+gees. One thi"d o* a&& *a"msha'e )een 'aated. C&ose to K0 o* a&& 'i&&ages a"edemo&ished. 5nem&o!ment in a most&! +nski&&ed

-o"k*o"e o* 11 mi&&ion ma! -e&& eeed R0. Po'e"t!is "amant, *ood sa"e, o+&ation g"o-th +ns+staina)&e.The t"aditiona& soia& sa*et! net the *ami&! has+n"a'e&ed, &eading to -ides"ead and "e+""ent *amineand ma&n+t"ition. The mainsta!s o* g"aing and att&ehe"ding ha'e )een hame"ed )! mines and de*o"estation.


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The Ta&i)an "egime has )een good to the eonom!. It"esto"ed the sem)&ane o* &a- and o"de". (g"i+&t+"a&"od+tion "eo'e"ed to "eSo'iet in'asion 61KH7 &e'e&s.>"iend&! Pakistan "o'ided H0 o* the sho"t*a&& in g"ain6inte"nationa& aid agenies "o'ided the "est7. The n+m)e"o* heads o* &i'estok the on&! *o"m o* sa'ings inde'astated (*ghanistan in"eased. ?an! "e*+gees ame)ak.

5")an -o"ke"s most&! "+"a& &a)o+"e"s dis&aed )! -a" *a"ed -o"se, tho+gh. (s ind+st"ies and se"'ies 'anished

and a"m! "e"+itment sta)i&ied -ith the Ta&i)an4s'ito"ies, sa&a"ies de"eased )! + to G0 -hi&e in*&ationiked + 6to an ann+a& a'e"age o* 202R, as "e*&eted inthe de'a&+ation o* the +""en! and in the "ie o* )"ead7.?o"e than R0 o* the a'e"age M1 a da! -age o* theas+a&, +nski&&ed, -o"ke", a"e sent on )"ead a&one9

=+t this dis"ean! )et-een a "eo'e"ing ag"i+&t+"a&

seto" and the di&aidated and de&eted ities &ed to"e'e"se mig"ation )ak to the 'i&&ages. In the &ong te"m it-as a hea&th! t"end.

Pa"adoia&&!, the o&&ase o* the ent"a& state &ed to theeme"gene o* a th"i'ing and 'i)"ant "i'ate seto"engaged in )oth &ega& and "imina& ati'ities. >o"eignehange dea&ing is ond+ted in tho+sands o* sma&&,

"i'ate&! o-ned, ehange o**ies. %ih (*ghani t"ade"sha'e in'ested hea'i&! in sma&& sa&e and home ind+st"ies6main&! in teti&es and ag"i)+siness7.


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III$ Trade

In some "esets, (*ghanistan is an etension o* Pakistaneonomia&&! and, +nti& "eent&!, ideo&ogia&&!. >ood

"ies in (*ghanistan, *o" instane the on&! "e&ia)&eindiato" o* in*&ation &ose&! *o&&o- Pakistan4s. The(*ghan +""en! 6the"e a"e t-o one iss+ed )! theTa&i)an and anothe" iss+ed )! the deosed go'e"nment in>aia)ad7 is &ose&! &inked to Pakistan4s +""en!, tho+gh+no**iia&&! so. The "egions &osest to Pakistan 68e"at,a&a&a)ad,


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@ith Pakistan, (*ghanistan has an ag"eement 6the (*ghanT"ansit T"ade7 -hih "o'ides the &atte" -ith aess to thesea. (*ghanistan imo"ts ons+me" goods and d+"a)&esth"o+gh this d+t! *"ee o""ido" 6and "omt&! "eeo"tsthem i&&ega&&! to Pakistan7. Pakistani a+tho"itiese"iodia&&! "eat )! +ni&ate"a&&! d"oing d+t! *"ee itemso** the (TT &ist. The (*ghans "oeed to imo"t the)anned items 6man! o* them man+*at+"ed in Pakistan4sa"h"i'a&, India7 'ia the ;+&* states, %+ssia, 5k"aine6anothe" imo"tant d"+g "o+te7 and into Pakistan.

I%$ The 4utureThe +""ent on*&it an )e a )&essing in disg+ise. @este"naid and in'estment an he& "es+sitate the So'iet e"amining 6Coe", Qin7 oe"ations and *ina&&! ta(*ghanistan4s 'ast "ese"'es o* oi& and nat+"a& gas. @ith a;DP e" aita o* &ess than MH00, the"e is "oom *o"massi'e g"o-th. Fet, s+h )"ight "osets a"e dimmed )!

inte"ethni "i'a&"!, a mo"i)+nd soia& s!stem, deades o*-a" and nat+"a& disaste" 6s+h as the d"a+ght in 1H7,and intense medd&ing and mani+&ation )! nea" and *a".One thing is e"tain: oi+m "od+tion is &ike&! toin"ease d"amatia&&!. (nd @este"n +se"s -i&& )e t"eated toe'e" heae" he"oin and 8asish.


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EU and 2ATO 5 The Competing Allianes

By'#r$ Sam %a&nin


Sat+"da!4s 'ote in I"e&and -as the seond time in 1Hmonths that its in"easing&! disi&&+sioned itien"! had todeide the *ate o* the E+"oean 5nion )! endo"sing o""e$eting the "+ia& T"eat! o* Nie. The t"eat! seeks to"e'am the +nion4s administ"ation and the hithe"to sa"ed)a&ane )et-een sma&& and )ig states "io" to the

aession o* 10 ent"a& and east E+"oean o+nt"ies.En&a"gement has )een the ente"iee o* E+"oeanthinking e'e" sine the me&tdo-n o* the easte"n )&o.

Shi*ting geoo&itia& and geost"ategi "ea&ities in the-ake o* the Setem)e" 11 at"oities ha'e "ende"ed this"o$et a&& the mo"e +"gent. N(TO an e"st-hi&e antiSo'iet mi&ita"! a&&iane is sea"h o* +"ose is g"ad+a&&!

aB+i"ing mo"e o&itia& h+es. Its "emit has s-e&&ed to takein eaekeeing, "egime hange, and nation)+i&ding.

#ed )! the 5S(, it has eanded agg"essi'e&! into ent"a&and no"the"n E+"oe. It has instit+tiona&ied its"e&ationshis -ith the o+nt"ies o* the =a&kan th"o+gh thePa"tne"shi *o" Peae and -ith %+ssia th"o+gh a"eent&! esta)&ished $oint o+ni&. The Ceh %e+)&i,

Po&and, and 8+nga"! the ete"na& E5 andidates ha'e*+&& sa&e mem)e"s o* N(TO *o" 3 !ea"s no-.
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The E5 "esonded )! *ee)&! attemting to o+nte" this-o""isome im)a&ane o* in*&+ene -ith a Common>o"eign and Se+"it! Po&i! and a "aid de&o!ment *o"e.Sti&&, N(TO4s hanes o* "e&aing the E5 as the mainontinenta& o&itia& a&&iane a"e m+h highe" than theE54s hanes o* s+)stit+ting *o" N(TO as the "eeminentE+"oean mi&ita"! at. the E5 is ho))&ed )! min+s+&eand de"easing de*ense sending )! its most&! ai*istimem)e"s and )! the )ak-a"dness o* thei" a"med *o"es.

That N(TO, +nde" (me"ia4s th+m), and the 'ag+e&! anti

(me"ian E5 a"e at "oss+"oses eme"ged d+"ing the"eent sat o'e" the Inte"nationa& C"imina& Co+"t.Co+nt"ies, s+h as %omania, -e"e asked to hoose)et-een N(TO4s osition imm+nit! *o" (me"ianso&die"s on inte"nationa& eaekeeing missions and theE54s 6no s+h thing7. >ina&&! and t!ia&&! the E5)aked do-n. =+t it -as a &ose a&& and it ast in sha""e&ie* the tensions inside the (t&anti a"tne"shi.

(s *a" as the so&e s+e"o-e" is one"ned, the st"ategiimo"tane o* -este"n E+"oe has -aned togethe" -iththe th"eat osed )! a di&aidated %+ssia. =oth so+thE+"oe and its no"the"n "egions a"e eme"ging as i'ota&.(i")ases in =+&ga"ia a"e mo"e +se*+& in the *ight againstI"aB than ai")ases in ;e"man!.

The a**ai"s o* =osnia -ith its a&aida4s "esene a"emo"e "essing than those o* >"ane. T+"ke! and its)o"de"s -ith ent"a& (sia and the midd&e east is o* *a"mo"e one"n to the 5S( than disinteg"ating =e&gi+m.%+ssia, a otentia&&! ne-*o+nd a&&!, is mo"e mission"itia& than g"+m! ;e"man!.

Th+s, en&a"gement -o+&d se"'e to enhane the d-ind&ing

st"ategi "e&e'ane o* the E5 and hea& some o* them+&ti&e "i*ts -ith the 5S( on t"ade, inte"nationa& a**ai"s


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6e.g., Is"ae&7, de*ense o&i!, and inte"nationa& &a-. =+tthis is not the on&! )ene*it the E5 -o+&d de"i'e *"om itsem)"ae o* the *o"me" &ands o* omm+nism.

>aed -ith an ineo"a)&! ageing o+&ae and an+ns+staina)&e s!stem o* soia& -e&*a"e and "eti"ement)ene*its, the E5 is in di"e need o* !o+ng immig"ants.(o"ding to the 5nited Nations Po+&ation Di'ision, theE5 -o+&d need to imo"t 1.J mi&&ion mig"ant -o"ke"sann+a&&! to maintain its +""ent &e'e& o* -o"king ageo+&ation. =+t it -o+&d need to a)so") a&most 1G mi&&ion

ne-, -o"king age, immig"ants e" !ea" $+st to "ese"'e asta)&e "atio o* -o"ke"s to ensione"s.

Easte"n E+"oe and eseia&&! ent"a& E+"oe is theE54s nat+"a& "ese"'oi" o* mig"ant &a)o". It is i"oni thatenoho)i and antiimmig"ation a"ties ho&d the )a&aneo* o-e" in a ontinent so deendent on immig"ation *o"the s+"'i'a& o* its -a! o* &i*e and instit+tions.

The inte"na&, ommon, ma"ket o* the E5 has mat+"ed. Itsg"o-th "ate has &e'e&ed o** and it has de'e&oed a mi&dase o* de*&ation. In "e'io+s ent+"ies, E+"oe eo"tedits eess &a)o" and s+"&+s aait! to its o&onies aneonomi s!stem kno-n as me"anti&ism.

The ma"kets o* ent"a&, so+the"n, and easte"n E+"oe @est E+"oe4s hinte"&and a"e "e&ete -ith a)+ndant "a-mate"ia&s and di"thea, tho+gh -e&&ed+ated, &a)o". (sindigeno+s +"hasing o-e" in"eases, the demand *o"ons+me" goods and se"'ies -i&& eand.


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Th+s, the en&a"gement andidates an at )oth as a sink*o" E+"oe4s "od+tion and the "oot o* its ometiti'ead'antage.

?o"eo'e", the shee" -eight o* thei" ag"i+&t+"a& seto"sand the )ak-a"dness o* thei" in*"ast"+t+"e an *o"e a"e&+tant E5 to "e*o"m its inane&! )&oated *a"m and"egiona& aid s+)sidies, nota)&! the Common (g"i+&t+"a&Po&i!. That the E5 annot a**o"d to t"eat the andidatesto do&&os o* s+)'entioa"! &a"gesse as it does the &ikes o*>"ane, Sain, Po"t+ga&, and ;"eee is indis+ta)&e. =+t

e'en a m+hde)ated hasein e"iod o* 10 !ea"s -o+&d)+"den the E54s )+dget and the atiene o* its mem)e"states and deniens to an a"imonio+s )"eaking oint.

The o+nt"ies o* ent"a& and easte"n E+"oe a"e ne-ons+mtion and in'estment ma"kets. @ith a tota& o* 300mi&&ion eo&e 6%+ssia o+nted7, the! eB+a& the E54so+&ation tho+gh not its m+h &a"ge" +"hasing &o+t.

The! a"e &ike&! to -hi&e the net *e- deades on a steeg"o-th +"'e, athing + -ith the @est. Thei" "oimit!to the E5 makes them idea& +stome"s *o" its goods andse"'ies. The! o+&d "o'ide the imet+s *o" a "ene-edgo&den age o* E+"oean eonomi eansion.

Cent"a& and easte"n E+"oe a&so "o'ide a nat+"a& &andne+s )et-een -est E+"oe and (sia and the ?idd&e East.

(s China and India g"o- in eonomi and geoo&itia&imo"tane, an en&a"ged E+"oe -i&& *ind itse&* in the"o*ita)&e "o&e o* an inte"media"! )et-een east and -est.


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The -ide"anging )ene*its to the E5 o* en&a"gement a"e&ea", the"e*o"e. @hat do the andidate states stand to gain*"om thei" aession The ans-e" is: s+""ising&! &itt&e. (&&o* them a&"ead! en$o!, to 'a"!ing deg"ees, +n*ette"ed,&a"ge&! d+t!*"ee, aess to the E5. To )e&ong, a *e- &ikeEstonia -o+&d ha'e to dismant&e a m+h admi"ed edi*ieo* eonomi &i)e"a&ism.

?ost o* them -o+&d ha'e to e"et )a""ie"s to t"ade and the*"ee mo'ement o* &a)o" and aita& -he"e none eisted.(&& o* them -o+&d )e *o"ed to en+m)e" thei" *"agi&e

eonomies -ith tens o* tho+sands o* ages o*"ohi)iti'e&! ost&! &a)o", inte&&et+a& "oe"t! "ights,*inania&, and en'i"onmenta& "eg+&ation. None stands toen$o! the same )ene*its as do the mo"e 'ete"an mem)e"s nota)&! in ag"i+&t+"a& and "egiona& de'e&oment *+nds.

oining the E5 -o+&d de&i'e" "+de eonomi and o&itia&shoks to the andidate o+nt"ies. ( )"+ta& and "athe"

s+dden int"od+tion o* ometition in hithe"to m+hshe&te"ed seto"s o* the eonom!, gi'ing + "eent&! ha"d-on so'e"eignt!, sho+&de"ing the de)i&itating ost o* theim&ementation o* "eams o* g+ide&ine, stat+tes, &a-s,de"ees, and di"eti'es, and )eing &a"ge&! o-e"&ess toin*&+ene o&i! o+tomes. >aed -ith s+h a"ediament, some o+nt"ies ma! e'en "eonside".


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The Euro5Atlanti #i)ide

By'#r$ Sam %a&nin


Also Read

Russia Straddles the Euro5Atlanti #i)ide

Bulgaria 5 The 6uiet Amerian

The EU and 2ATO 5 The Competing Allianes

Europe0s 4our Speeds

S*ithing Empires

Eastern Ad)antages

The o+nt"ies o* ent"a& and east E+"oe eseia&&!those s&ated to $oin the E+"oean 5nion 6E57 in ?a! net!ea" a"e )et-een the (me"ian "ok and the E+"oeanha"d &ae. The Ceh "e+)&i, 8+nga"! and Po&and,

a&"ead! N(TO mem)e"s, ha'e $oined Sain, ="itain andothe" E5 'ete"ans in signing the &ette" o* eight ins+o"t o* 5S o&i! in the ;+&*. N(TO and E5 asi"ants in&+ding most o* the nations o* the =a&kans *o&&o-eds+it in a $oint statement o* the Vi&ni+s ;"o+.

The deniens o* the "egion -onde" -hat is meant )!demo"a! -hen thei" o-n go'e"nments so )&ithe&!

igno"e +)&i oinion, "eso&+te&! set against the &oomingon*&it.
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The heads o* these ne-&! indeendent o&ities o+nte" )!sa!ing that &eade"s a"e meant to mo&d ommone"etions, not me"e&! *o&&o- them eedient&!. The mo)oosed the -a" against 8it&e", the! "emind +s, some-hatnonge"mane&!.=+t the o&itia& e&ite o* E+"oe is, indeed, di'ided.

>"ane is t"!ing to "easse"t its -aning a+tho"it! o'e" anin"easing&! +n"+&! and +nmanagea)&! eandingE+"oean 5nion. Fet, the ne- mem)e"s do not sha"e itsdistaste *o" (me"ian hegemon!. On the ont"a"!, the!

"ega"d it as a g+a"antee o* thei" o-n se+"it!. The! sti&&*ea" the %+ssians, >"ane4s and ;e"man!4s ne- *o+nda&&ies in the (is o* Peae 6a&so kno-n as the (is o*@ease&s7.

The Cehs, *o" instane, "ea&& ho- >"ane 6and ="itain7sa"i*ied them to Nai ;e"man! in 13H in the name o*"ea&o&itik and the "ese"'ation o* eae. The! think that

(me"ia is a *a" mo"e "e&ia)&e sonso" o* thei" &ongte"msa*et! and "ose"it! than the *"at+"ed E+"oean5nion.

Thei" dis&ike o* -hat the! "ega"d as (me"ia4s &ight-eight&eade"shi and o'e"t and s+set )e&&ige"enenot-ithstanding, the ent"a& and east E+"oeans a"eg"ate*+& to the 5nited States *o" its +n*&inhing and

seta+&a"&! s+ess*+& on*"ontation -ith omm+nism.


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>"ane and ;e"man! entang&ed in entente and Osto&itik,"eseti'e&! oied + to the "enh;e"man dominane.


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=! ate"ing to o+&a" a'e"sion o* (me"ia4s o&iies,;e"man!4s )e&eag+e"ed Chane&&o", ;e"ha"d Sh"oede", isattemting to so"e oints domestia&&! e'en as the;e"man eonom! is im&oding.

The e+"o(t&anti st"+t+"es ne'e" &ooked -o"se. TheE+"oean 5nion is )oth dis+nited and &osing its E+"oeanha"ate". N(TO has &ong )een a d!s*+ntiona& a&&iane insea"h o* a +"ose. >o" a -hi&e, =a&kan ski"mishes"o'ided it -ith a ne- &ease on &i*e. =+t no- the E+"o(t&anti a&&iane has )eome the E+"o(t&anti di'ide.

The on&! &ea", onsistent and ohesi'e 'oie is (me"ia4s.The ne- mem)e"s o* N(TO a"e t"!ing to demonst"atethei" a&&egiane na!, o)seB+io+sness to the so&eidenti*ia)&e &eade" o* the *"ee -o"&d.

>"ane4s )id at E+"oean he&msmanshi *ai&ed )ea+se)oth it and %+ssia a"e )iased in *a'o" o* the +""ent"egime in I"aB. >"enh and %+ssian *i"ms ha'e signed

mo"e than 1K00 omme"ia& ont"ats -ith Saddam4sm+"de"o+s &iB+e -hi&e thei" ="itish and (me"ianometito"s -e"e e&+ded )! the o&iies o* thei"go'e"nments.

@hen santions against I"aB a"e &i*ted and "o'idingSaddam o" his handiked s+esso" a"e sti&& in &ae %+ssian ene"g! )ehemoths a"e oised to e&o"e andet"at )i&&ions o* )a""e&s o* oi& -o"th doens o* )i&&ions o*do&&a"s. I"aB o-es %+ssia M )i&&ion -hih %+ssia -ants"eaid.


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=+t the 5nited States -o+&d )e mistaken to ind+&ge inShaden*"e+de o" to g&ee*+&&! ass+me that it has *ina&&!s+eeded in iso&ating the inso&ent >"enh and thesomno&ent ;e"mans. P+)&i oinion e'en -he"e ita""ies &itt&e -eight, &ike in ="itain, o" in the =a&kans annot )e igno"ed *o"e'e".

>+"the"mo"e, a&& the o+nt"ies o* E+"oe sha"e "ea&one"ns a)o+t the sta)i&it! o* the ?idd&e East. ( di'idedI"aB stands to +nsett&e neigh)o+"s nea" and *a". T+"ke! hasa &a"ge "ane and ;e"man! ha'e&ost thei" i'ota& "o&e in the E5. ="itain and Sain a"eseond "ank mem)e"s ="itain )! E+"oho)i hoie andSain )ea+se it is too sma&& to "ea&&! matte". %+ssia asmooth oe"ato" hose to side -ith >"ane and ;e"man!,at &east temo"a"i&!. The ne- and asi"ing mem)e"s -o+&dha'e done -e&& to *o&&o- s+it.

Instead, the! ha'e misonst"+ed the signs o* the gathe"ing


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sto"m: the eme"ging E+"oean "aid de&o!ment *o"e and

ommon *o"eign o&i! the "a"ohement )et-een

>"ane and ;e"man! at the eense o* the "o(me"ian

)+t *a" &ess in*&+entia& ="itain, Ita&! and Sain the

onstit+tiona& "isis setting E+"oean *ede"a&ists against

t"aditiona& nationa&ists the g"o-ing "+t+"e )et-een O&d

E+"oe and the (me"ian h!e"o-e".

The ne- and asi"ing mem)e"s o* N(TO and the E5 no-*ae a moment o* t"+th and a"e )eing *o"ed to "e'ea& thei"

hand. ("e the! "o(me"ian, o" "o;e"man 6"ead: "o

*ede"a&ist E+"oe7 @he"e and -ith -hom do the! see a

ommon, "ose"o+s *+t+"e @hat is the etent o* thei"

ommitment to the E+"oean 5nion, its 'a&+es and its

agenda

The "o&amations o* the E+"oean eight 6in&+ding the

th"ee ent"a& E+"oean andidates7 and the Vi&ni+s Ten

m+st ha'e g"eat&! disaointed ;e"man! the +n-a'e"ing

sonso" o* E5 en&a"gement. (n! *+"the" *&ag"ant siding-ith the 5nited States against the inne" o"e o* the E5

-o+&d me"e&! omo+nd those e""o"s o* $+dgment. The

E5 an +nish the "e'enant nations o* the omm+nist )&o

-ith the same dediation and e**eti'eness -ith -hih it

has hithe"to "e-a"ded them.


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Russia Straddles the Euro5Atlanti #i)ide

By'#r$ Sam %a&nin


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%+ssian P"esident V&adimi" P+tin -a"ned on T+esda!, inan inte"'ie- he g"anted to T>1, a >"enh te&e'isionhanne&, that +ni&ate"a& (me"ian="itish mi&ita"! ationagainst I"aB -o+&d )e a g"a'e mistake and an+n"easona)&e +se o* *o"e. %+ssia might 'eto it in theSe+"it! Co+ni&, he a'e""ed.
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In a $oint de&a"ation -ith >"ane and ;e"man!, iss+ed thesame da!, he a&&ed to enhane the n+m)e" o* a"msinseto"s in I"aB as an a&te"nati'e to -a".

On&! -eeks ago %+ssia -as -"itten o**, not &east )!m!se&*, as a sate&&ite o* the 5nited States. This ne-*o+ndasse"ti'eness has on*o+nded ana&!sts and ee"tse'e"!-he"e. Fet, aea"anes aside, it does not signa& a*+ndamenta& shi*t in %+ssian o&i! o" -o"&d'ie-.

%+ssia o+&d not "esist the temtation o* &a!ing onemo"e the #eninist game o* inte"ime"ia&ist

ont"aditions. It has &ong maste"*+&&! e&oited hinks inN(TO4s a"mo" to *+"the" its o-n eonomi, i* notgeoo&itia&, goa&s. Its on'enient geog"ahi s"a-& a"tE+"oe, a"t (sia a&&o-s it to ose as )oth a ontinenta&o-e" and a g&o)a& one -ith inte"ests akin to those o* the5nited States. 8ene the 'e"'e -ith -hih it de&'ed intothe -a" against te""o"ism, "easting inte"na& o"ession

and medd&ing a)"oad as its e&ements.(s V&adimi" #+kin, de+t! seake" o* the D+ma o)se"'ed"eent&!, ="itain ha'ing s-e"'ed too *a" to-a"ds (me"ia %+ssia ma! !et )eome an inte"media"! )et-een a)itte"&! disenhanted 5S( and an i"ked E+"oe and)et-een the "ih, ind+st"ia&ied @est and de'e&oingo+nt"ies in (sia. P+)&i&!, the 5S( has on&! mi&d&!

disag"eed -ith %+ssia4s "e&+tane to o+ntenane ami&ita"! endgame in I"aB -hi&e sho-e"ing >"ane and;e"man! -ith 'it"io& *o" sa!ing, essentia&&!, the samethings.


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The 5nited States kno-s that %+ssia -i&& not $eoa"diethe "e&e'ane o* the Se+"it! Co+ni& one o* the *e-"emaining ha&&ma"ks o* ast So'iet g"ande+" )! 'etoingan (me"iansonso"ed "eso&+tion. =+t %+ssia annot )eseen to )e a)andoning a t"aditiona& a&&! and a ma$o"+stome" 6I"aB7 and ne-*o+nd *"iends 6>"ane and;e"man!7 too eedient&!.

No" an P+tin "isk *+"the" antagoniing ?oso-ha"d&ine"s -ho a&"ead! "ega"d his e"ei'ed ;o")ahe'&ike o)seB+io+sness and *a" "eahing onessions to the

5S( as t"easono+s. The s"aing o* the (nti =a&&isti?issi&e t"eat!, the eansion o* N(TO to %+ssia4s )o"de"s,(me"ia4s "esene in ent"a& (sia and the Ca+as+s,%+ssia4s nea" a)"oad a"e t"a+mati "e'e"sa&s o* *o"t+ne.

(n ag"eed ons+&tati'e "oed+"e -ith the "+m)&ingN(TO ha"d&! B+a&i*ies as am&e omensation. The"e a"et"o+)&ing "+m)&ings o* disontent in the a"m!. ( *e-

-eeks ago, a %+ssian gene"a& in Chehn!a "e*+sed P+tin4so"de"s +)&i&! and -ith im+nit!. (dditiona&&!,ao"ding to n+me"o+s oinion o&&s, the 'ast ma$o"it! o*%+ssians oose an I"aBi amaign.

=! a&igning itse&* -ith the *ik&e >"ane and the )"oodingand somno&ent ;e"man!, %+ssia is -a"ning the 5S( thatit sho+&d not )e taken *o" g"anted and that the"e is a "ie

to a! *o" its a&&egiane and good se"'ies. =+t P+tin isnot =o"is Fe&tsin, his ine)"iated "edeesso" -ho o'e"&a!ed his hand in oosing N(TO4s oe"ation in


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seeks &edges that the oi& ma"ket -i&& not )e *&ooded )! aen+"io+s I"aB. It desi"es a *"ee hand in 5k"aine, ("meniaand 5)ekistan, among othe"s. %+ssia -ants to ontin+eto se&& MG )i&&ion a !ea" in a"ms to China, India, I"an, S!"iaand othe" a"iahs +nhinde"ed.

On&! the 5nited States, the so&e s+e"o-e", ang+a"antee that these demands a"e met. ?o"eo'e", -ith ama$o" oi& "od+e" s+h as I"aB as a 5S "oteto"ate,%+ssia )eomes a hostage to (me"ian good-i&&. Fet,hithe"to, a&& %+ssia "eei'ed -e"e e"ession o* s!math!,

&aimed Va&e"i >!odo"o', di"eto" o* Po&itia& >"iends, anindeendent %+ssian thinktank, in an inte"'ie- in theCanadian dai&!, Nationa& Post.

These a"e not t"i'ia& one"ns. %+ssia4s is a "imiti'eeonom!, )ased on ommodities eseia&&! ene"g!"od+ts and an o'e"de'e&oed -eaons ind+st"!. Its*o"t+nes *&+t+ate -ith the "ie o* oi&, o* ag"i+&t+"a&

"od+e and -ith the need *o" a"ms, d"i'en )! "egiona&on*&its.

Sho+&d the "ie o* oi& o&&ase, %+ssia ma! again )e*o"ed to "eso"t to m+&ti&ate"a& *inaning, a 'i"t+a&monoo&! o* the &ong a"ms o* 5S *o"eign o&i!, s+h asthe Inte"nationa& ?oneta"! >+nd 6I?>7. The 5S( a&so hasa deisi'e 'oie in the @o"&d T"ade O"ganiation 6@TO7,

mem)e"shi the"eo* )eing a %+ssian st"ategi goa&.


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It -as the 5nited States -hih sonso"ed %+ssia4s seat atta)&e o* the ;H the ;"o+ o* Eight ind+st"ia&ied states a m+h o'eted "easse"tion o* the %+ssian >ede"ation4sg&o)a& -eight. (o"ding to %ossiiska!a ;aeta, a%+ssian ae", the 5S( a&"ead! anno+ned a -eek agothat it is onside"ing +tting %+ssia o** (me"ian *inania&aid "o)a)&! to "emind the *o"me" emi"e -ho is ho&dingthe +"se st"ings.

=+t siding -ith (me"ia "isks a&ienating the a&&imo"tanto"e o* E+"oe: ;e"man! and >"ane. E+"oe eseia&&!

;e"man! is %+ssia4s &a"gest eo"t destinatio

wars and empire

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