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Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences © Gordon Lax Short version of a presentation at the summer school in Potsdam, 25 th June 2014 [email protected] Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper citing of the original source

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Page 1: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Warming of the Arctic Ocean,

Marine Ecological Consequences

© Gordon Lax

Short version of a presentation at the summer school in Potsdam, 25 th June 2014

[email protected]

Only for working purposes

Do not use overheads without asking respective proper citing of the original source

Page 2: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

The Arctic Marine Ecosystem

Introduction

Changes

Consequences

Examples

Page 3: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

The Arctic Marine Ecosystem

CAFF. 2010. Arctic Biodiversity Trends: Selected indicators of change

http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/arctic-sea-ice-food-web-schematic-illustration_14df

Page 4: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Who lives in the Arctic Ocean and

needs the sea ice? • 16 species of mammals like polar bear, ringed seals, walruses, whales

like Beluga & narwhale

• 60 species of seabirds like puffins and fulmars

• In sea ice ~ 2100 single cell organisms from viruses to ice algae protozoan and more than 50 species of larger grazers

• In the water column ~ 240 fish species like polar cod

• ~ 1800 phytoplankton species, 50 % diatoms who serve as food for ~ 340 zooplankton species of amphipods and other crustaceans

• On the sea floor in shallow coastal areas 160 seaweeds, ~ 2600 animal species in shallow and ~ 1100 in the deep sea, besides crustaceans many worm species like annelids

http://www.awi.de/fileadmin/user_upload/News/Background/IPCC_AR5_2013/Factsheets/Factsheet_Arktis_final_20140304.pdf

Page 5: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Key species determine flux of organic matter

© Christine Klaas

Nöthig et al. 2009

Page 6: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Ice algae and phytoplankton growth

Taken from Nöthig et al 2009, modified from Tilzer 1992

Page 7: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

The Arctic Marine Ecosystem

Introduction

Changes

Consequences

Examples

Page 8: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Changes

6-10°C higher air temperature than global average by 2100 in the Arctic

Drastic reduction in sea ice extent and volume during the last 30 years

Twice as much light income through the ice, at the ice edges

Ice melt and warming produce more stable surface waters thus a

stronger stratification and prevent the surface form mixing with deeper

nutrient rich water

Low nutrient supply to surface layers result in less harvestable

production

Increase in acidity

Page 9: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

The Arctic Marine Ecosystem

Introduction

Changes

Consequences

Questions & Examples

Page 10: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Consequences for seasonal aspects

Wassmann, Oceanography 24 2011

Page 11: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Consequences: Effects on trophic levels

Directly and

indirectly effects

Sea birds and marine mamals

Demersal fish and benthal

Pelagic fish and larvae

Zooplankton

Phytoplankton

Page 12: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Consequences for the food web

• Switch in food-web: large, Arctic smaller Atlantic species

• Limitation of food sources for top predators

• Increase in number & diversity of small carnivores, dissipating the energy flow

“Warming in the

Arctic may

result in the

negative effects

of increased

biodiversity” Weslawski et al. (2009)

Page 13: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Predictions in fish populations

Polar cod

(Boreogadus saida)

Model predicted:

Extirpated in parts of

the Arctic Ocean after

30 years of

hypothetical warming.

and retreating sea ice

edge at a rate of 5 km

per year.

http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/simulated-projections-for-polar-cod-distribution-with-global-warming_923b#

Cheung, W.W.L., Lam, V.W.Y. & Pauly, D. (eds.) 2008. Modeling present and climate-shifted distribution of marine fishes

and invertebrates. Fisheries Centre Research Reports 16(3).72 pp.

Page 14: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Consquences from acidification

Citation

AMAP, 2014. Arctic Ocean

Acidification 2013: An Overview.

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment

Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway. xi

+ 27 pp.

Page 15: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

The Arctic Marine Ecosystem

Introduction

Changes

Consequences

Examples

Page 16: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Instead

Melt ponds Under ice

Melosira arctica

Deep sea sediments

Boetius et al. 2013

ROV- AWI

Massive development of Melosira arctica in 2012

20 cm

Production in the central Arctic Ocean

Page 17: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Long-term obeservations

Beszczynska, et al., 2012

Oceanography in Fram Strait

Beszczynska-Möller, A., Fahrbach, E., Schauer, U., and

Hansen, E.

Variability in Atlantic water temperature and transport at the

entrance to the

Arctic Ocean, 1997–2010. – ICES Journal of Marine

Science, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fss056

Page 18: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Beszczynska-

Möller

Temperature in Fram Strait

(1999-2010)

Warm anomaly

Oceanography in Fram Strait

Beszczynska-Möller, A., Fahrbach, E., Schauer, U., and Hansen, E.

Variability in Atlantic water temperature and transport at the entrance to

the

Arctic Ocean, 1997–2010. – ICES Journal of Marine Science,

doi:10.1093/icesjms/fss056

Page 19: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Sediment trap sampling in AWI ‘HAUSGARTEN‘

(2000-2012)

~79°N 4°E

Page 20: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

0

20

40

60

80

100

2007

.1

2008

.1

No

. m

-2d

-1

2009

.1

2010

.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004

.1

2005

.1

No

. m

-2d

-1

Lander

2.5 m above bottom

Bauerfeind et al 2014, JMS

Traps

200 - 300m

0

100

200

300

700

800

900

No

. m

-2d

-1

L. retroversa

NO

DA

TA

NO

DA

TA

2000

.1

2001

.1

2002

.1

2003

.1

2007

.1

2005.

1

2006

.1

Pteropods

2008.

1

2009

.1

L. helicina

HAUSGARTEN

Key species: Pteropods in moored sediment traps

Page 21: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Kraft et al. 2011 Mar Biodiv 41:353-364, Kraft et al. 2012 J Mar Sys 95:1-15, Kraft et al. MarEcolProgSer, submitted

HAUSGARTEN

Key species: Themisto spp in moored sediment traps

2012: 14 % contribution of the North Atlantic T. compressa

2000-2011: 15x increase in amphipod occurrences

Page 22: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

22

Themisto compressa

North Atlantic invader

Kraft et al. 2013, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

Themisto compressa a successful invader

Biogeographical shift &

successful reproduction

under Arctic conditions

Klekowski and

Weslawski 1991

HAUSGARTEN

Dalpadado 2002, Dalpadado et al. 2008

Atlantic Reference Centre 2012

Page 23: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

After the warm anomaly we observed a shift in

biomass and species

Did we pass a tipping point?

Concluding Remark

“Warming in the Arctic may result in the negative

effects of increased biodiversity” Weslawski et al. (2009)

Yes, there are indications of this, as prove, we need to continue studies at

Fram Strait

Page 24: Warming of the Arctic Ocean, Marine Ecological Consequences · 2014-06-29 · eva-maria.noethig@awi.de Only for working purposes Do not use overheads without asking respective proper

Questions

• Will production & carbon flux in the Arctic

change under reduced ice conditions?

• Is the carbon flux affect & the coupling of

pelagic and benthic ecosystems?

• Will organisms be able to adapt to

changing conditions?

• Will new species successfully migrate

and sustain?