WARGAMING UNPREDICTABLEADVERSARIES

(ANDUNRELIABLEALLIES…)REXBRYNEN

MCGILLUNIVERSITY

WWW.PAXSIMS.ORG

TheStrategyBridge,28March2017

THEQATAR CRISIS

• Hostagenegotiations(April2017)andhackingofQatariNewsAgency(May2017)aggravateexistingtensionsbetweenQatarandGCChardliners(KSA,UAE,Bahrain)

• Growinginfluenceof(headstrong)MuhammedbinSalman

• 21May:Saudi,UAEandBahrainleadersrailagainstQatartoPOTUSduringsummit,andreceivesympatheticresponse.

• 5June:KSAandalliesbreaktieswithQatar,imposeseveresanctions.• USEmbassypraisesQatariprogressoncounterterrorism.

• SECSTATETillerson urgesmoderation.

• 6June:POTUSsupportsKSApositioninseriesoftweets.

• 9June:SECSTATETillerson issuesbalancedstatementcallingfordialogue.HourslaterPOTUSaccusesQataroffundingterrorism“ataveryhighlevel.”

• 14June:USannouncessaleof$12BinF-15aircrafttoQatar.

• 20June:StateDepartmentissuessternstatementverycriticalofKSAposition.

• 25June:SECSTATETillerson suggestssomeKSAdemandsareexcessive.

• 26June:Sen.Corker(R-SFRC)threatenstoblockallUSarmssalestoGCC.

WHATIS“UNPREDICTABILITY”?

• true“irrationality”isrelativelyrare

• seriousmentalillness?

• instead,mostapparentirrationalitystemsfromalackofunderstandingof:

• decision-making:

• perspectives,interests,perceptions

• decision-makingprocesses

• factions

• psychologicalcharacteristics

• signalsorintent

• theeffect,however,maybethesame,i.e.difficultyinestablishingstimulus-responseorcause-effect

IMPLICATIONSOF“UNPREDICTABILITY”?

• impactondeterrence

• “crazyman”enhancesdeterrence?

• incoherenceunderminessignalingandcommitment,henceunderminesdeterrence

• unreliablealliesunderminedeterrence

• slowerormorecautiousdecision-making?

• previouslyhomeostaticsystemsmaybecomemorepronetocascadingchange

• “bull(orbutterflyeffect)inachinashop”

UNPREDICTABILITY INWARGAMING

• Whilethebehaviorofunpredictableadversariesorunreliablealliesisdifficulttoforecastwithprecision,statementsandactionsusuallyfallwithinarangethatcanbebroadlyanticipated.

• Notcompletely unpredictable.

• True“BlackSwan”eventsare,bytheirverynature,veryrareindeed.

• Wethustendtobeconsideringabellcurveofplausiblebehaviors,boundedattheextremesbylowprobability/highimpactactions.

• Probabilitydistributioncannotbeknown,however.

WARGAMEDESIGN1:SCRIPTING

Theunpredictabilityofa(non-player)adversaryorallycanbebuiltintothegamescenarioorinjects.

• Advantages:

• (pre)boundedunpredictability

• Disadvantages:

• generallyunresponsivetogameevents

• offerslittleinsightintomanaging(asopposedtocopingwith)theunreliable

• playersmayfeeltheyarebeingleddownapredermined path(becausetheyare)

• Applications:

• controlledexperimentationordefinedteachingobjectives

• littlefish/bigpondsituationswhereunpredictableelementiswellbeyondreachofactors

WARGAMEDESIGN2:STOCHASTICBEHAVIOUR

Theunpredictabilityofa(non-player)adversaryorallycanbeberepresentedbyrandomevents(dice,cards,etc).

• Advantages:• semi-(pre)boundedunpredictability

• generatesgenuineuncertainty

• Disadvantages:• unresponsivetogameevents

• offerslittleinsightintomanaging(asopposedtocopingwith)theunreliable

• losingattributedto“badluck”

• Applications:• controlledexperimentationordefinedteachingobjectives

• littlefish/bigpondsituationswhereunpredictableelementiswellbeyondreachofplayers

WARGAMEDESIGN3:RESPONSIVEVARIABLE

”Unreliable”behaviour subjecttoinfluencethroughestablishedgamemechanism(influencetrackormarkers)thatincludesbothresponsiveandstochasticelements.

• Advantages:

• semi-(pre)boundedunpredictability

• allowsplayerstostrategizeinteractionwiththe”unpredictable”

• moreresponsivetogameevents

• Disadvantages:

• dangersofmodellingwhatyoudon’tunderstand

• Applications:

• “Clausewitzian gameofcards”

Playerorplayersspendlimitedpoliticalcapitalordiplomaticresourcestoselect/influenceoutcome.

Possibleadditionalstochasticelement.

Randomdrawofpossibleleadership

positions.

Playerorplayersspendlimitedpoliticalcapitalordiplomaticresourcesto

select/influenceoutcome.

Variablerelationship,alliancecommitment,

etc.

-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3

Possiblestochasticelement.

WARGAMEDESIGN4:WHITECELL

“Unreliable/unpredictable”behaviour determinedbygameumpires/control/whitecell.

• Advantages:

• creativeunpredictability

• allowsplayerstostrategizeinteractwiththe”unpredictable”

• highlyresponsivetogameeventsANDgamepurposes

• Disadvantages:

• “Whateverwetrytogo,Controlwillmessitup.I’mbecominganihilist.”

• dangersofumpiringwhatyoudon’tunderstand

• Applications:

• Usefultonudgegameindesired(analytical/educational)directions.

WARGAMEDESIGN5:TWO(+)LEVELGAMES

”Unreliable”behaviour determinedbysubgameplayerinteractions.

• Advantages:

• usefulwhereelementsofunpredictabilityareunderstood,eveniftheirexactrelationshipisnot

• potentialn emergentgameplay

• Disadvantages:

• distractionandcomplexity

• dangersofdesigningforeffect

• Applications:

• Larger,morecomplexgames

Two-levelgamewherebydomesticactorsvietoinfluencenationalleader(may

appearunpredictableoutsidethesystem).

IMPLICATIONS

• Thevalueofteaching/trainingforagilityandadaptability.• Ifweknowwearelikelytobesurprisedbyunpredictableadversaries,thenweshouldenhanceor

capacitytorespondtotheunexpected.

• POL-MILgamingasalternativefuturesexercises.• Howtodothemcheaplyandeasilytoallowafullerexplorationoftheplausibility-space?

• Importanceofpolitically-sensitivecontingencyplanningthatexplorealliedunreliability.• Arethereimportantissueswejustcan’tgame?

• Theimportanceofhumilityinforecasting.• Themodelmightbeuseful—itisalmostcertainlywrong.

• CanwereallygameBlackSwans?