war, disasters, & data - world...
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What type of information do you need?
What are your biggest data bottlenecks in terms of: -collection -storage -analysis -dissemination -information management
What is the Impact Lab?
challenging data collection
..and some solutions
..and some solutions
What is a Complete Data Solution?
Collection Storage Analysis DisseminationDesign
Often, agencies need either one
or many components of
their data programming, but do not have the internal capacity.
Agencies need complete data
science solutions, from
design to analytics.
Existing tools for data collection,
storage, and interpretation/analytics are
insufficient for an agency, and
customization is
OR OR
Team background • Epidemiologists• Economists• Software developers• Cyber security experts• Astro physicist
Who works at the Impact Lab?
Skill sets • Complex statistical modeling• Impact evaluations• GIS and remote sensing• Survey design• Basic descriptive stats• Rapid Prototyping• Data Visualization• Natural Language Processing• Machine Learning
Impact Lab Methods
Impact Lab Methods
Impact Lab Methods
• Médecin Sans Frontières (MSF)• World Bank• Medair• World Health Organization (WHO)• California Energy Commission• Asian Hope• Foundation Center• Grant Managers Network• Guidestar• Hope for Justice• Jamaica Power Service• KIPP Charter School Network• Knight Foundation• Vermont Energy Investment Corporation
Impact Lab Clients & Partners
Where we work
where we work
The most resource-poor settings on earth
Active conflict zones New-onset disaster settings Non-urgent developing country contexts
MSF CharterThe Impact Lab provides complete data programming and technical assistance to development & humanitarian organizations, researchers, and government agencies
What we do in the field
CHE Fixed Facility Data Collection: Maternity Ward Helmand Afghanistan Photo: Tomczyk, B: CDC.
MSF CharterActive conflict zones New-onset disaster settings Non-urgent developing country contexts
what are the challenges?
Program examples
MSF: Health assessment program Medair: Malnutrition analysis World Bank: Energy grid loss MSF: Violence surveillance WHO: EWARN expansion
MSFHealth Assessment Program
Lack of comprehensive health and essential service information from the Najaf, Karbala, and Babil regions
Need for key information to facilitate resource targeting
Need for baseline information to be used as benchmark for duration of MSF projects in the region
Epidemiologically valid, representative sample of target population information critical to MSF field & HQ staff, as well as partners
Initial request
Rapid, Actionable information from crisis-‐ affected persons in the region in order to better target current and future interventions
Objective
Standardized, systematic assessment of Syrian Conflict-affected populations in Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Yemen, and Syria.
Ability to easily modify instrument and methods to ‘fit’ specific regions and/or conflict affected group variation.
Trend series data from all sites
Cost effective HR and instrument use.
Minimal data collection periods
Rapid analysis and result dissemination to all actors in context.
Secondary
1. General demographics
2. Critical health needs 3. Current coverage of health services 4. Barriers to medical care
5. Perceived medical service access issues and concerns
6. Prevalence & type of recent illnesses 7. Current uses and sources of medication
8. Immunization coverage,
9. Incidence of diarrheal disease 10. Respiratory infection among children
11. Infant feeding practices 12. Reproductive health services access and use 13. Water supply and sanitation
14. Food security 15. Livelihoods 16. Repatriation
Assessment components
Cross-sectional study Najaf, Karbala, and Babylon July & early August
Multi-stage cluster sampling Well-disbursed sample Inference to all IDPs in target region
Inclusion Criteria: Persons displaced from home region within 18 months of interview
Study design
Data entry was performed using mobile data collection tools (Dharma Mobile™), which allowed the investigators the ‘luxury’ of acquiring data that did not have to be entered by hand on to a complete, architecturally sound database.
Mobile Data Collection tools also allowed the researchers to write an analysis script which incorporated the hierarchy of the data collected, which controlled for correlation between respondents within households, and households within clusters.
Descriptive data was analyzed using sample proportions; variance estimators were based on a Taylor series linearization.
Fishers Exact tests were used to assess differences between proportions (reported as significant at a level of .05).
Analysis
40 data collectors, 4 group supervisors, 1 project manager, 1 technical advisor
3 days training at host Ministry of Health facility
1 day methods training
2 days internal piloting/instrument testing.
5 days for deployment (minimizing security risks due to active conflict in the region.
Deployment
6,455 interviews were conducted in a 5 day period, many within 20km of an active conflict zone.
AS A RESULT OF ‘HAP’ Data:
Local Departments of Health incorporated results into their short term planning and strategy.
Within 1 week dedicated dermatologists were recruited for a Scabies treatment program.
Within 2 weeks reproductive health center funding was requested from Baghdad MoH.
MSF was requested by local actors to assist with both family planning and scabies programming in all 3 governorates.
Turning data into action
MSFViolence Surveillance
MedairCamp-based malnutrition Assessment
In sum, 6,275 children age 5 were sampled between January and June, 2015 from the Primary Health Care center of Shariya camp, Dohuk Governorate, Iraq. These individuals consisted of 3,076 males and 2,906 females.
Using the Middle-Upper Arm circumference measurements as an indicator of malnutrition, 54 males and 80 females were reported as suffering from moderate and severe malnutrition during the period of Febrauary-June, 2015.
The proportion of individuals reported as having moderate and severe malnutrition increased throughout the period, with the majority of cases occurring during most recent 4 weeks of the reporting period.
Background
In order to assess the primary research question of increasing malnutrition risk among children in the Shariya camp setting, additional multivariate regression models were used.
The results indicated that the risk of malnutrition is increasing significantly each week (IRR: 1.18; 95%ci: 1.09,1.28. p-value: <.01).
The projections indicate that the risk of moderate and severe malnutrition will increase roughly 18% per-week if the current conditions in the camp persist.
Using these same procedures, the risk of moderate and severe malnutrition variance by gender was assessed. Females under 5 experienced a substantially greater risk of malnutrition (IRR 1.23, 95%ci: 1.15, 1.30) than males (IRR: 1.20. 95%ci: 1.11, 1.29).
-‐WHO, UNICEF, & Medair Nutri`on monitoring as a result of analysis.
-‐Ini`a`on of Nutri`on programming at Shariya camp by Medair.
-‐UNICEF Planned nutri`on programming at proximal camps in Dohuk Governorate.
Data into action at field level
World Health Organization
E-Warn Improvement & Expansion to Community-level
World Bank
Energy sector: Large Account Non-Technical Loss Project
False Positive Rate
True
Pos
itive
Rat
e
Our tools
Why we use a mobile platform
Mobile data collection tools in use
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•Simple data entry •Staff management •Form builder •Same day analysis •Offline analytics
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Key findings from the recent central Iraq baseline assessment
Data Collection was completed in 5 days: July 27th-‐31st, 2015.
6,455 Persons in 1,190 Households met Inclusion Criteria
were included in our sample.
106 households refused (1.62%)
A well disbursed sample of IDP from all 3 governorates were
collected via selected clusters during this time frame
Data Collection Time Frame & Total Sample Size Acquired
Key Findings: General Demographic Information
-IDP in the Mid-‐Euphrates region are very young: Mean age 21 years-‐old (range: newborn-‐88) -‐Households consisted of more men(51.4%) than
women(48.6%)
-‐The level of literacy was very low, with the vast majority
having an informal education or primary school-‐level only.
-‐Household size was similar to other areas assessed in
Iraq: Mean HH size of 5.6 (range: 1-‐19)
Key Findings: General Demographic Information
Key Findings: General Demographic Information
Key Findings: Migration
Key Findings: Health Seeking Behaviours
Health Utilization Rate: 14.9% (95%CI: 12.8, 17.3)
The Health Utilization Rate is the % of population who received medical services within 30 Days of Interview
% of Persons who needed medical care that received
services: 89.0% (95%CI: 83.1, 92.5)
Key Findings: Health Seeking BehavioursAmong those who sought care and were unable to receive services:
62% stated medications were not available….
Key Findings: MorbiditiesAmong those who needed care, the most common ailment was skin diseases (18%).
73.9% of persons with skin diseases stated that this disease was a clinician-‐confirmed scabies case.
Gastrointestinal illness prevalence was high (12.1%)
Respiratory illnesses were also common(7.2%)
Key Findings: Morbidities
Key Findings: Pediatric Medical Conditions10.8% of all persons unable to receive medical care for a recent condition were under age 5
Roughly 13% of all children under age 5 suffered from a Diarrheal illness within 30 days of interview
18.0% were unable to receive care for their diarrheal illness
Key Findings: Vaccination Coverage
Key Findings: Antenatal Care by Trimester
Key Findings: Shelter
69.9% of all IDP are currently living in mosques+mosque-‐adjacent community shelters (95%CI: 54.2%, 85.6%)
92.5% are relying on these free shelter types (95%CI: 86.9%, 98.1%)
Nearly half of all IDPs (48.9%) live in a dwelling which is not protected from the elements.(95%CI: 42.2%, 55.6%), and nearly one-‐third do not have cooling supplies (where temperatures frequently top 50 celsius
Over 24% of all IDP in the region have suffered from food insecurity during the 2 months prior to interview
d
Key Findings: Essential Services-‐Water
0 20 40 60 80 100Percent
Other
Tanker-truck
Cart with small tank/drum
Bottled water
Unprotected dug well
Public tap/standpipe
Piped water to yard/plot
Protected spring
Piped water into dwelling
Prim
ary
wate
r sou
rce
Key Findings: Essential Services-‐Food Security
Key Findings: Repatriation
Nearly all IDP (96.1%) plan to return to their home region (95%CI: 94.5%, 97.8%)
A great many of those desiring to return state that POOR LIVING CONDITIONS at their current location will force them to return to
their home region (47.4%)(95%CI: 34.5%, 60.3%)
Within 3 weeks Nutrition program Family planning clinics
What’s next?
Rapid, actionable intel Fill gaps in information Collect reliable data Provide real time results Prioritize & respond to needs Monitor trends Streamline workflows Monitoring not snapshots
Challenges
Real time assessments Citizen engagement Service targeting Tool development Post conflict stabilization Build client capacity
Applications
Examples
Assessment programs Fixed facility surveillance EWARN Key respondents Crowd seeds Check point monitoring Logistics tools
Questions?
Photo: Syria-Lebanon, B. Bassam
Jesse Berns [email protected] Foster-Moore [email protected]