walter ammann - business continuity management within the concept of integrative risk and disaster...
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BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 1
www.grforum.org
Business Continuity
Management within the
Concept of Integrative Risk
and Disaster Management – A
Holistic Approach Walter J. Ammann,
President Global Risk Forum GRF Davos
Davos, Switzerland
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 2
Values exposed to hazards
Damage potential
RISKS – THE VALUE AT RISK SIDE
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 3
Damage Potential (what can be affected?)
• Human lives and health
• Live-stock (urbanisation)
• Critical Infrastructures and Services
(Hospitals, schools, transportation, energy,
food, water, waste-water, etc.)
• Communication (IT infrastructure)
• Production (Industry)
• Image, reputation
• Etc
RISKS - VALUES EXPOSED TO HAZARDS
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 4
Processes
RISK – THE THREAT SIDE
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 5
Processes Values exposed to hazards
Damage potential
RISK
RISK – THE POTENTIAL INTERATCTION SIDE
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 6
(MATHEMATICAL) DEFINITION OF RISK
RISK Hazard Values at Risk Vulnerability = x x
Climate Change
will increase the
frequency and
intensity
Humans,
Animals, Assets,
Infrastructures,
Services,
Environment
All values are
vulnerable.
Vulnerability can
be reduced with
measures
Resilience
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 7
Subsequent
Event
Primary Event
cause and effect
CHARACTERISTICS OF CASCADING EFFECTS
Secondary
Event
Secondary
Event
Secondary
Event
Subsequent
Event
Secondary
Event
Secondary
Event
Interactions
Uncertainties:
• Intensity
• Effects
• Interactions
• response
Intentional
(external)
threats/attacks
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 8
Water
treatment works Railway station
Fire station
Electricity sub-station
Broadband antenna
Hospital
Supermarket
Power station
Waste water
treatment works
FLOOD SITUATION
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 9
insignificant small perceptible critical catastrophic
IMPACT
Pro
bab
ilit
y
imp
rob
ab
le
ve
ry r
are
ra
re
po
ss
ible
fre
qu
en
t Technical
Other
Natural
RISK MANAGEMENT (RISK MATRIX)
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 10
IRM - RISK REDUCTION & DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Integrative Risk Management IRM concentrates
equally on all phases of the risk circle - on prevention,
intervention and recovery
System approach
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 11
Avoiding, eliminiating
risk situations
Risk reduction
by preventive
measures
Risk Transfer (Micro-)
Insurance
Self-Responsibility
(Residual Risk)
Tota
l ori
gin
al
risk
level
Emergency
Management
Rehabilitation
Insurance
Technical measures
Organisational measures
Education
Training
Recovery
Prevention
Organizational measures
Emergency/ Crisis Management
Intervention
Rehabilitation
Insurance
Technical measures
Organisational measures
Education
Training
Recovery
Prevention
Organizational measures
Emergency/ Crisis Management
Intervention
IRM – THE RISK REDUCTION STAIR-CASE
mitigate, adopt, share, suffer,
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 12
Timely and appropriate
intervention influences extent of
damage and human behaviour
Damage as a result of human
actions and behaviour
12
THE HUMAN FACTOR - RESILIENCE
Robustness- redundancy –
resilience: A resilient system
helps to recover faster and to
keep secondary damage
contained
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 13
Schematic of Resilience
Time
Fu
nctio
na
lity
100%
t event
Recovery Time
t recovery
Loss in
Functionalit
y
(Vuln
era
bili
ty)
Ro
bu
stn
ess
A
Resilience is high if A is small Event
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 14
Resilience
Time
Functionalit
y,
Se
rvic
e L
eve
l
100%
t event
Recovery Time
t recovery
Vuln
era
bili
ty
Resilience
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 15
SUMMARY – SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES
• All hazards approach for risk analysis and assessment, (cascading effects!) – Risk Matrix.
• Integrative risk management (prevention, preparedness, intervention/ response, recovery)
• Resilience, robustness, redundancy
• Proportionality, cost effectiveness, cost-efficiency
• Communication, awareness raising
BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 16
FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!
CONTACT INFORMATION
Global Risk Forum GRF Davos
Promenade 35
CH-7270 Davos
Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600
Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610
www.grforum.org
Vision without action – a day-dream
Action without vision – a nightmare
Jan Egeland, Kobe 2005