waller edp presentation july 2014

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Metrostudy Waller County EDP Presentation July 10, 2014

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Presentation to the Waller EDC July 2014

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  • 1. Metrostudy Waller County EDP Presentation July 10, 2014

2. Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company Market Coverage Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 2 3. Houston Economy 4. Houston Economy Trailing 12 months job growth Source: BLS 89,757 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 4 5. Houston Economy MSA Annual Job Growth: 2014 Estimate Source: BLS, Moodys Analytics Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 5 6. Houston Economy Annual Job Growth by Sector: March 2014 Sector Change Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities +20,300 Government +11,200 Retail Trade +11,100 Accomodation and Food Services +10,100 Professional and Business Services +8,500 Manufacturing +6,900 Construction +5,800 Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities +5,600 Mining and Logging +5,200 Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities +4,100 Educational Services +2,800 Other Services +2,500 Real estate and Rental and Leasing +1,800 Information +900 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation +300 Finance and Insurance -300 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 6 7. Houston 47.7% Dallas 22.9% Austin 13.7% San Antonio 8.1% OKC 3.2% New Orleans 2.1% Nashville 1.8% Salt Lake 0.4% Only 9 MSAs (of largest 60) have created net new middle class jobs since 2007. 48% were in Houston. Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 7 Houston Economy We Make Middle Class Jobs 8. Source: Gallup, December 2013 40% of the population in 10 states wants to move in the next 12 months Houston State Residents Likely to Move within the Year Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 8 9. Houston Economy Oil Trend Monthly Spot Price Forecast 2014: $96.21 2015: $93.87 Source: Energy Information Administration Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 9 10. Houston Economy Annual International Demand for Oil Source: IEA Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 10 11. Houston Economy Annual Growth in Oil Use, 2003-2012, Largest Countries Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 11 27.2% 42.1% -3.2% -3.9% 19.6% 15.4% 18.3% 17.8% -4.6% 9.8% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% These are projected to be the 10 most populous countries in 2050, comprising 52% of world population. Source: US Energy Information Administration, UN World Population Prospects 2012 Revision 12. 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Office Industrial Retail Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |National Economic Overview 12 Houston Economy Commercial SF Delivered 13. 11,338,154 619,370 635,182 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 Office Industrial Retail Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |National Economic Overview 13 Houston Economy Commercial SF Under Construction 14. Houston Existing Home Market 15. Houston Single Family Home Sales - MLS Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 15 16. Houston MLS Months of Supply Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 16 17. Houston Home Price Appreciation vs. MLS Months of Supply Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 17 18. Houston 20% increase in Listing Prices over Last Year Source: Zillow, May 2014 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 18 19. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Nominal HPI Real HPI Real HPI Peak: 3Q77 278.7 Current HPI: 4Q13 206.9 Source: Quarterly House Price Index Purchase Only, Federal Housing Finance Administration, 1Q14 Real home prices Still 34% below 1977 peak Houston Real vs. Nominal Home Price Index Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 19 20. Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |National Economic Overview 20 Houston Distribution of Annual Starts by Price 21. Houston New Home Market 22. Houston New Home Market Annual Starts and Closings Trends Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 22 23. Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |National Economic Overview 23 Houston More Houses Built than California vs 24. #3 The Woodlands 641 Starts #2 Cinco Ranch 733 Starts #1 Riverstone 756 Starts #9 Pine Mill Ranch 379 Starts #7 Sienna Plantation 420 Starts #8 Canyon Gate West 388 Starts #6 Woodforest 441 Starts #5 Cross Creek Ranch 465 Starts #4 Aliana 470 Starts #10 Firethorne 364 Starts 6 of nations top 15 selling MPCs are in Houston. 25. Houston Lot Trends 26. Houston Lot Trends Vacant Developed Lots 1Q 2008 Peak: 72,985 1Q 2014: 37,724 Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 26 27. Houston Lot Trends Lot Delivery vs. Absorption Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 27 28. Houston Lot Trends Future Lot Detail Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 28 29. 13,400.10 10,301.80 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2005-Q1 2005-Q3 2006-Q1 2006-Q3 2007-Q1 2007-Q3 2008-Q1 2008-Q3 2009-Q1 2009-Q3 2010-Q1 2010-Q3 2011-Q1 2011-Q3 2012-Q1 2012-Q3 2013-Q1 2013-Q3 2014-Q1 Houston Lot Trends Acres Sold Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 29 30. 490.98 4,066.54 1,373.91 710.15 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Acres 30 Houston Lot Trends Grand Parkway Land Sales Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 31. Houston Lot Delivery vs. Absorption Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 31 32. West Houston Employment Growth 33. www.MetrostudyReport.com Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 33 34. www.MetrostudyReport.com Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 34 35. www.MetrostudyReport.com Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 35 36. www.MetrostudyReport.com Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 36 37. www.MetrostudyReport.com Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 37 38. Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 38 West Houston Employment Growth Office Building Construction Status Buildings RBA (SF) Pot. Workers Proposed 54 8,004,555 53,364 Under Construction 27 4,792,748 31,952 Grand Total 81 12,797,303 85,315 39. Waller County Transactions 40. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Acres Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 40 Houston Waller County Land Transactions 41. Houston Waller EDC Summary Job growth will remain strong in the Houston area Existing home sales market remains very tight citywide Many areas of the city, including Waller County, should see price appreciation this year Although prices are higher, they are still historically low Were selling a lot of land right now but our lot supply is still low West Houston job growth and office development favors growth in Waller County Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 | July 10, 2014 |Waller County EDP Presentation 41 42. 3Q11 Copyright Metrostudy 2011 Copyright Metrostudy 20122Q12 Thank You 43. 51.0% 51.5% 49.2% 53.7% 61.2% 59.7% 56.7% 61.8% 50.5% 57.2% 63.1% 63.3% 71.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey, 2014 Houston Where Suburban Residents Want to Live