Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability Assessment “In Action”“In Action”

Turner et al. 2003b – 3 case studiesTurner et al. 2003b – 3 case studies

Descriptive: Tropical Southern Yucatan and Arid Yaqui Valley (NW Mexico)Descriptive: Tropical Southern Yucatan and Arid Yaqui Valley (NW Mexico)

In Progress: Pan-Arctic AssessmentIn Progress: Pan-Arctic AssessmentResearch questions:Research questions:

What social and biophysical conditions contribute to the major hazards affecting the What social and biophysical conditions contribute to the major hazards affecting the coupled human-environment system?coupled human-environment system?

In what ways are the coupled systems most vulnerable?In what ways are the coupled systems most vulnerable? What can be done on local, regional and global scales to address these vulnerabilities?What can be done on local, regional and global scales to address these vulnerabilities?

Stressors: Stressors: climate variability/change and UV radiation, pollution, human & societal trendsclimate variability/change and UV radiation, pollution, human & societal trends

Consequences to avoid: Consequences to avoid: threats to human health & well-being, indigenous cultures & food threats to human health & well-being, indigenous cultures & food security, and human settlements & developmentsecurity, and human settlements & development

Vulnerability analysis for 1980-present and present-2020 Vulnerability analysis for 1980-present and present-2020 HazardsHazards (all 3) (all 3) ConsequencesConsequences (for human-environment system of the Inuit – (for human-environment system of the Inuit –

subsistence hunting & fishing, commercial fishing, centrality of kinship & family) subsistence hunting & fishing, commercial fishing, centrality of kinship & family) ConsequenceConsequence (large unpredictable fluctuations in reindeer herd size) (large unpredictable fluctuations in reindeer herd size) Hazards Hazards

(climate, habitat, markets, new technologies, commercialization).(climate, habitat, markets, new technologies, commercialization).

Vulnerability framework = most useful as a conceptual point of departure for Vulnerability framework = most useful as a conceptual point of departure for examining vulnerabilityexamining vulnerability– Amplification of “transparent” hazards (droughts/hurricanes) by land-use Amplification of “transparent” hazards (droughts/hurricanes) by land-use

decisions & invasive species decisions & invasive species – Importance of multiple and interacting hazardsImportance of multiple and interacting hazards– Response options require attention to the dynamics of coupled systemsResponse options require attention to the dynamics of coupled systems

Indicators of VulnerabilityIndicators of Vulnerability Measurable, non-redundant, practicalMeasurable, non-redundant, practical In context of vulnerability framework: find indicators for the components of In context of vulnerability framework: find indicators for the components of

vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity), weight, combine (Polsky vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity), weight, combine (Polsky et al.) et al.)

Other examples – indices of regional vulnerability:Other examples – indices of regional vulnerability: – USAID – indices to measure vulnerability to food insecurity in Africa (crop risk, income risk, USAID – indices to measure vulnerability to food insecurity in Africa (crop risk, income risk,

coping strategies)coping strategies)– PNL Vulnerability Assessment Program – composite index of vulnerability to climate change PNL Vulnerability Assessment Program – composite index of vulnerability to climate change

for 38 countries using 16 variables from 5 sectors of sensitivity (settlement, food security, for 38 countries using 16 variables from 5 sectors of sensitivity (settlement, food security, human health, ecosystem, water) and 3 sectors of coping capacity (economy, human human health, ecosystem, water) and 3 sectors of coping capacity (economy, human resources, environmental)resources, environmental)

– South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission Environmental Vulnerability Index – South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission Environmental Vulnerability Index – composite of 54 independent variables: degradation, resilience, exposurecomposite of 54 independent variables: degradation, resilience, exposure

Numerous other measures developed for other sectors, e.g., water resources:Numerous other measures developed for other sectors, e.g., water resources:– Reliability = probability of failureReliability = probability of failure– Vulnerability = size of failureVulnerability = size of failure– Resilience = duration of failureResilience = duration of failure

Limitations:Limitations:– Subjectivity in variable selection and relative weightsSubjectivity in variable selection and relative weights– Data availabilityData availability– Difficulty of testingDifficulty of testing– Lack of correspondence between conceptual definition of vulnerability and developed Lack of correspondence between conceptual definition of vulnerability and developed

metrics (e.g., Cutter et al. 2003)metrics (e.g., Cutter et al. 2003)

Alternative: develop generic vulnerability metric to assess the vulnerability of Alternative: develop generic vulnerability metric to assess the vulnerability of selected variable(s) of concern to specific sets of stressors (Luers et al. 2003)selected variable(s) of concern to specific sets of stressors (Luers et al. 2003)

Luers et al. 2003. A method for quantifying vulnerability, Luers et al. 2003. A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.

Global Enviro Change Global Enviro Change 13:255-26713:255-267..

Vulnerability = susceptibility to damage, Vulnerability = susceptibility to damage,

= f(system’s position relative to a threshold, exposure, sensitivity)= f(system’s position relative to a threshold, exposure, sensitivity)

Adaptive capacity = V(existing conditions) – V(modified conditions)

Ex: Vulnerability in the Yaqui Valley Ex: Vulnerability in the Yaqui Valley (Luers et al. 2003)(Luers et al. 2003)

Framework:Framework:– Place = “farm unit” (30m x 30m pixel)Place = “farm unit” (30m x 30m pixel)– Variable of concern = wheat yieldVariable of concern = wheat yield– Stressors = climate variability and change and market Stressors = climate variability and change and market

fluctuationsfluctuations

Questions:Questions:– On which farm units are wheat yields most vulnerable?On which farm units are wheat yields most vulnerable?– To which stressors are wheat yields most vulnerable?To which stressors are wheat yields most vulnerable?– What factors explain differences in vulnerability of wheat yield What factors explain differences in vulnerability of wheat yield

between farm units?between farm units?

Data:Data:– 4 years of remotely sensed estimates of yields4 years of remotely sensed estimates of yields– 20 years of historical climate data20 years of historical climate data– Wheat yield = f(TWheat yield = f(Tnight-minnight-min, soil type, management), soil type, management)– Threshold for “breaking even” = 4 t/haThreshold for “breaking even” = 4 t/ha

What contributes to vulnerability?

How would vulnerability change under different conditions?

Vulnerability, Yaqui Valley Irrigation District

Who is vulnerable?

Luers et al. 2003

Luers et al. 2003Luers et al. 2003 What’s required?What’s required?

– Identify outcome variables of concernIdentify outcome variables of concern

– Identify stressors of concernIdentify stressors of concern

– Model relationship of outcome variables to stressorsModel relationship of outcome variables to stressors

– Base-line data to calibrate modelBase-line data to calibrate model

What is gained?What is gained?– An ability to examine vulnerability implications of future An ability to examine vulnerability implications of future

scenariosscenarios

– Ability to analyze independently: (1) state with respect to Ability to analyze independently: (1) state with respect to threshold, (2) sensitivity, (3) exposure, (4) adaptive capacitythreshold, (2) sensitivity, (3) exposure, (4) adaptive capacity

What’s missing?What’s missing?– ResilienceResilience– Role of timescales of changeRole of timescales of change– Predictive model for management changesPredictive model for management changes

Other MethodsOther Methods Miles et al. 2000: Sensitivity, Miles et al. 2000: Sensitivity,

adaptability, vulnerability of adaptability, vulnerability of Columbia River water resources Columbia River water resources to climate variability and changeto climate variability and change – StressorsStressors = climate variability = climate variability

and change (population growth, and change (population growth, changing environmental changing environmental values/operational priorities)values/operational priorities)

– Outcomes of concernOutcomes of concern = = Columbia River water resources Columbia River water resources operating objectives (reliability)operating objectives (reliability)

Parallel comparative Parallel comparative assessments to elucidate role of assessments to elucidate role of human systems in determining human systems in determining vulnerabilityvulnerability – Liverman et al. 1997: water Liverman et al. 1997: water

resources in US-Mexico border resources in US-Mexico border regionregion

Miles et al. 2000: Climate variabilityMiles et al. 2000: Climate variability

SensitivitySensitivity of streamflow of streamflow Observed responseObserved response Coefficient of variability (relatively low)Coefficient of variability (relatively low)

SensitivitySensitivity of water resources of water resources Reliability = f(flow)Reliability = f(flow) Hydropower/flood control vs. fishHydropower/flood control vs. fish

AdaptabilityAdaptability of water resources of water resources Technological adaptability: Could you Technological adaptability: Could you manage differently? No.manage differently? No. Institutional adaptability: Could you Institutional adaptability: Could you manage differently? No.manage differently? No.

VulnerabilityVulnerability of water resources of water resources = f(sensitivity, adaptability)= f(sensitivity, adaptability) Low with respect to floods, high with Low with respect to floods, high with respect to droughtsrespect to droughts

Climate change (Climate change ( exposure, threshold) exposure, threshold)

Thoughts on Vulnerability Assessment Thoughts on Vulnerability Assessment ObjectivesObjectives

– Cross-site comparability (e.g., HERO, AVS)Cross-site comparability (e.g., HERO, AVS)– Cross-stressor comparability (cv/cc/anthro)Cross-stressor comparability (cv/cc/anthro)– Cross-policy comparabilityCross-policy comparability– Transferability, e.g., “producing generalizable insights into the Transferability, e.g., “producing generalizable insights into the

processes that amplify and dampen vulnerability”processes that amplify and dampen vulnerability”

ConcernsConcerns– How to handle timescale of stress/response?How to handle timescale of stress/response?– Must incorporate all of the crucial metrics (e.g., resilience)Must incorporate all of the crucial metrics (e.g., resilience)

MessagesMessages– Vulnerability framework = useful as organizing tool, but no Vulnerability framework = useful as organizing tool, but no

convergence yet on methodsconvergence yet on methods– Makes sense to break out components of vulnerability for Makes sense to break out components of vulnerability for

purposes of outreach/discussionpurposes of outreach/discussion– Many options for outreach with vulnerability assessment measures Many options for outreach with vulnerability assessment measures

(e.g., NOAA’s coastal risk/vulnerability assessment tool: www.csc.noaa.gov/rvat)(e.g., NOAA’s coastal risk/vulnerability assessment tool: www.csc.noaa.gov/rvat)

ReferencesReferences Liverman, D.M., et al. (1997). Climate Variability and Social Vulnerability in the U.S.-Liverman, D.M., et al. (1997). Climate Variability and Social Vulnerability in the U.S.-

Mexico Border Region: An Integrated Assessment of the Water Resources of the San Mexico Border Region: An Integrated Assessment of the Water Resources of the San Pedro River and Santa Cruz River Basins. United States Geological Survey (USGS). The Pedro River and Santa Cruz River Basins. United States Geological Survey (USGS). The Impact of Climate Change and Land Use in the Southwestern United States. Impact of Climate Change and Land Use in the Southwestern United States. http://http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/swgeochange.er.usgs.gov/sw//

Luers, A. L., et al. (2003). A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the Luers, A. L., et al. (2003). A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Global Environmental ChangeGlobal Environmental Change 1313(4 SU): (4 SU): 255-267.255-267.

Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, A. F. Hamlet, B. Callahan, D. Fluharty, (2000). Pacific Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, A. F. Hamlet, B. Callahan, D. Fluharty, (2000). Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Journal of the American Water Resources AssociationResources Association 3636(2): 399-420.(2): 399-420.

Polsky, C., et al. (2003). Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: An Polsky, C., et al. (2003). Assessing Vulnerabilities to the Effects of Global Change: An Eight-Step Approach. Cambridge, Massachusetts, Environment and Natural Resources Eight-Step Approach. Cambridge, Massachusetts, Environment and Natural Resources Program, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Program, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.Government, Harvard University.

Turner, B. L., et al. (2003a). Science and Technology for Sustainable Development Turner, B. L., et al. (2003a). Science and Technology for Sustainable Development Special Feature: A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Special Feature: A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. PNASPNAS 100100(14): 8074-8079.(14): 8074-8079.

Turner, B. L., et al. (2003b). Science and Technology for Sustainable Development Turner, B. L., et al. (2003b). Science and Technology for Sustainable Development Special Feature: Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability Special Feature: Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: Three case studies. analysis: Three case studies. PNASPNAS 100100(14): 8080-8085.(14): 8080-8085.