vulnerability and hiv/aids prof. tim quinlan heard (health economics and hiv/aids research division)...
TRANSCRIPT
VULNERABILITY AND HIV/AIDS
PROF. TIM QUINLAN
HEARD
(Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division)
UNIVERSITY OF NATAL
DEFINITIONS (COMMON USEAGE IN HIV/AIDS RESEARCH)
RISK - Probability of infection.
e.g. Biological : women more than men; Age : ‘youth’ (15-24 yrs old)
Occupational categories: sex workers; truckers
SUSCEPTIBILITY - infected
Risk plus Context (living conditions, lifestyles and behaviour)
Why some people have a higher chance of being infected than others
(e.g. not all sex workers are equally at risk of being infected)
VULNERABILITY -affected
- how & why HIV/AIDS affects many people’s lives and livelihoods
including those not infected;
- why some are not able to cope;
- why & how changes in lifestyle and behaviour (susceptibility indic.)
Purpose: Identify conditions that contribute to the spread of HIV/AIDS; where to focus interventions.
BACKGROUND
SERO-PREVALENCE &
DEMOGRAPHY
Ante-natal clinic prevalence (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990
13
Ante-natal clinic prevalence %
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1991 1992 1993
14
Ante-natal clinic prevalence (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
15
Ante-natal clinic prevalence (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
South Africa
Thailand
16
A model of futureAIDS and non-AIDS Deaths
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
year
num
ber
of d
eath
s
Other deaths AIDS Deaths
Number of people living with HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Mill
ion
s
Source: UNAIDS, 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
6019
85
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Mil
lio
ns
Tota
l po
pu
lati
on
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Mil
lio
ns
Nu
mb
ers
HIV
, AID
S s
ick
and
HIV
dea
ths
Totalpopulation
Total HIV
TotalnumberAIDS sick
CumulativeHIVdeaths
Numbers infected, sick and dead, ASSA2000
By 2010, orphans will account for 15-25% of all children in 12 countries in SSA
0 5 10 15 20 25
Lesotho
Swaziland
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Zambia
Namibia
Malawi
Rwanda
South Africa
Burundi
Central African RepublicNon-AIDS
AIDS
AGGREGATE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACTS
• Survival from HIV sero-conversion is about 8 years
• Risk of infection is greater for women than men
• Age is a significant factor
• Different patterns (mortality rates; socio-economic impacts) due to variation in maturity of each national epidemic
• Current AIDS impacts represent incidence rate of about 10 years ago
• Surveys in Tanzania and South Africa suggest that mortality patterns are unique to Africa.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
IMPACT AND VULNERABILITY
MORTALITY
MORBIDITY
Smaller local pop. Slower national pop. growth
Change in age structure
INDIVIDUAL
FIRM/SECTOR
GOVERNMENT
MACROECONOMY
HOUSEHOLD
LABOURMARKET
HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDS
Channels of Economic Impact
Individual level
• Incubation period – 5-8 years from infection until the onset of
AIDS– very little economic impact during this time
• AIDS– Period of escalating illness – Ability to work is reduced– While the cost of care increases
What makes women more vulnerable to infection?
Biological:• Larger exposed mucosal surface.• Semen has a higher concentration of HIV • Young girls mucosal surface is immature.• STD infections are asymptomatic.• Semen stays in the vagina.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS:
• Women are economically dependent on men
• Burden of care falls on women
• Girls may be withdrawn from school
• ‘Revival’ of ‘traditional’ social norms about subordinate role of women challenges
‘empowerment’ and ‘emancipation’ interventions
What makes women more vulnerable?
Household Impacts
• Due to the sexual nature of transmission often more than one household member is infected.
• Infections are concentrated among the primary carers and earners
• Double impact of reduced income and increased costs of care
Rural household responses to being infected/affected by HIV/AIDS
FOOD SECURITY INCOME LABOR
Eat cheaper foods Diversify income Reallocate labor – e.g.children leave school
Reduce consumption Migrate Work extra hours
Borrow (from informalsector/relatives)
Hire labor & draftanimals
Call in social &familial obligations
(send children torelatives) Sell assets (dissaving) Decrease cultivated
areasEat wild foods Use savings or
investments (dissaving)Call in social &
familial obligations(ask relatives to help)
Beg Beg Diversify income
Effect of HIV on Household Security
Vulnerability Line
Household with weaker safety net
Early stages Frequent hospital visits
BedriddenDeath /Burial
Care for orphans
Household with stronger safety net
INDICATORS & INTERCONNECTIONS
• Morbidity and mortality: determinants of socio-economic impacts on families and households (variation in income levels, likely to suffer severe poverty; household dissolution and child migration)
• Gender and the position of the deceased family member in the household are significant indicators of HIV/AIDS effect on household economic and social viability
• Illness and death of mother an indicator of child mortality (under 5-mortality increasing)
• Extended effects of HIV/AIDS are highlighted in the impacts on organisations: (e.g. Loss of experience and skills, Lower productivity; higher absenteeism and leave rates)
Company costsProgression of HIV/AIDS
in the WorkforceEconomic Impact on the Company
Morbidity begins
Employee becomes infected
Employee leaves workforce (resigns or dies)
Company hires replacement employee
No costs to company at this stage
Morbidity-related costs are incurred(e.g. absenteeism, individual & workforce productivity, management resources, medical care & insurance)
Termination-related costs are incurred(e.g. payouts from pension or provident fund, funeral expenses, loss of morale, experience, & work-unit cohesion)
Turnover costs are incurred (e.g. recruiting, training, reduced productivity)
Timeline
Year 0
Year 1-5
Year 6or 7
Year 7 or 8
Government Finance
• Increased demand on government services
– Health
– Welfare
– Poverty reduction etc etc
• Although demand will increase the level of spending on services will be determined by policy decisions
• Decreased Tax Base
– AIDS effects most economically active
– Government has less resources at its disposal
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORKS FOR ASSESSING THE IMPLICATIONS OF
HIV/AIDS
Medical interventions for HIV-AIDS
ImmunisationMicrobicidesAnti-
retroviraltreatment
Individual Behaviour
Support
Incapacity & absenteeism inprivate sector &
civil service
cure
s exte
nds
reduces
Viral mutation
redu
ce prevent
Increaces?decreases?
prev
ents
Sex industry interventions
Healthy lifestyle
Condom use
increaces
sustains
impr
ove
AIDS education & awareness
caus
es
redu
ces
prod
uctiv
ity
more orphans
Mores & customs (multiple sets of these) Education
Diet &nutrition
affect
Migrant & mobile workers
Stable & settled workers
brings better
Govtpolicies
Funding for health care, infrastructure, sanitation
scarce educators die
challenges
& influences provides skilled people
Red
uces
de
man
d
sustains
creates vacancies
inhibits
support Drain on
Shareholderexpectations
& values
drive
risk taking &risk avoidance
Role of women
NGOinvolvement
Circumcision
Notions of masculinity
Social cohesion
Spiritual & political authority
Religion challenges
& influences
Beliefs
Above average survivors:chaste & faithful,
long term thinkers,tertiary educated,
non-migrant families,settled LT employees,high income, cohesive
& candid societies, grandparents
Aboveaverage survivors
Above average mortality:unemployed, orphans,soldiers, sex workers,
hazardous occupations, migrants, temps, contract
workers, newly prosperous, young women,
uncircumcised men, & partners of all the above
Population stops
growing, and ages
Businesssector
involvement
Autonomy of HIV in Complex Societies - A systems model of the S’n Africa AIDS epidemic
TreatingSTD’s
HIVEpidemic
(prevalence)
HIV Transmission
LatencyPeriod
(avg 8 yrs)
AIDS related Disease & Deaths
(death rate)
Motherto child
treatment
ham
pers
prev
ents
Treatingopportunistic
diseases
Africantraditionalhealers
promiscuity
incr
eass
Economicorganisation
Personal responsibility
Self-confidence
Chastity,Fidelity
reduces
Business sector involvement
Migration & mobility
Impr
oves
wea
kens
changes
Tension of two worlds
Life force,procreation,
sex urge
Drives
affects
affects uptake of
AIDS testing & counselling
impr
oves
Promote / hamper
increase
s
Leadershipin society
Bus
ines
s se
ctor
invo
lvem
ent
reduces
Promote / hamper
G i v e s r i s e t o
Global competition &
economy
Weather & climate
change
Jobs
Economy
Cost of hiring &
retraining
affe
ctaffe
ct
affect
skilledworkers
die
Who dies & who survives:
(population. Demographics &
particularities)
values, profits, patents, prices, research
Determinesnature of
influ
ence
s
create
provides
prov
ides
prov
ides
promotes
increases
create
incr
ease
s
perceptions of risk Hazardous
occupations
crea
te
affects
Housing & land Urbanisation
affect
Safety, crime & war
I n f l u e n c e
Cost to individuals & households : medication, care, burial,
& orphans
reduces
affects
extends
Epidemic Curves, HIV
27Aug01 - Report I: Epidem’gy & Lit. p. 27
T1 T2 Time
Numbers
A1
A2
HIV prevalence
A
B
Epidemic Curves, HIV and AIDS
27Aug01 -Report I: Epidem’gy & Lit. p. 27
T1 T2 Time
Numbers
A1
A2
HIV prevalence
AIDS - cumulative
B1
A
B
Epidemic Curves, HIV, AIDS & Impact
27Aug01 -Report I: Epidem’gy & Lit. p. 27
T1 T2 Time
Numbers
A1
A2
HIV prevalence
B1
A
B
AIDS - cumulative
Impact
HIV Epidemic – Where we should respond
Determinants
STD treatment
Blood safety
Anti-retroviral therapy during pregnancy
Provision of condoms
Behaviour change communication
Change beliefs, attitudes, ‘mindsets’
Condom promotion and marketing
Micro-environment
Social Policy
Economic Policy
Legal Reform
Employment legislation
Macro-environment
Social policy – redistribution
Legal Reform
Human Rights
Taxation
Debt relief
Terms of Trade
Interventions
Sexual behaviour
Biomedical
A Virtuous Circle
HIV Prevention
Treatment and care
Pre-empts need for treatment
Mitigation of Impact
Reduces risk, strengthens communities
Makes communities less vulnerable
Pre-empts need for future mitigation
Makes communities less susceptible
Pre-empts need for future mitigation
Strengthens systems for delivery of care
42
STRATEGIC PLANNING APPROACHES
(RESEARCH) (MANAGEMENT)
(Research)
Reactive Creative
‘Multi-sectoral (work out how to achieve vision: Response’ define objectives; pool resources
collaboration) = ‘integration’
HOW? TO WHAT END? VISION
STRATEGICPLANS
RE-THINK APPROACHTheory; Methodology; Criticalthinking; Values/Philosophy
IMPACTASSESSMENT
(Research)
INTERVENTION(e.g. PR; monitoring –derivefrom approach;)
Participatory exercises
INTEGRATEDSTRATEGIC PLANS