vrl tci gati 10% india 10% 8% transportation and logistics...

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Equity Research July 3, 2016

BSE Sensex: 27145

Transportation

VRL Logistics (ADD)

Price chart

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Listed on : 29-Apr-2015

Transportation and Logistics

India road freight trends and GST opportunity Sector Thematic

Research Analysts:

Sandeep Mathew [email protected]

+91 22 6637 7188

Chart 1: Tonnage kms growth declined in FY16 post the recovery in FY15

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Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Analysis of core road freight segment revenues of publicly listed road operators (VRL, TCI, and GATI) suggests that FY16 tonnage kilometres growth declined in FY16 (average peer group growth of ~2% versus ~6% in FY15). Decline in tonnage km growth was reflective of the weak underlying economy in FY16 (rural economy impacted by drought, IIP growth averaged ~2.4%, etc). Road freight segment accounts for more than 70% of revenues for VRL, TCI and GATI. Freight rates which have historically moved in-line with diesel prices albeit with a lag, decoupled in FY16 as road operators largely maintained or marginally increased freight rates despite fuel prices being lower (by ~12% YoY). Despite the decrease in fuel prices, which is a key cost element (>25% of sales for transport operators like VRL), segment EBIT margins remained under pressure due to continued increase in other costs (employees, toll charges, etc). With hopes of GST reviving and anticipated domestic recovery in FY17, the sector (comprising VRL, TCI and GATI) is anticipated to witness a volume recovery. Segment EBIT margins also remain well below prior cyclical peaks. Current sector valuations (~19x FY17E PE) are in-line with historical through-cycle averages for the road freight sector. We prefer VRL Logistics which has the highest RoCE, a strong balance sheet, and consistent FCF generation track record among the road freight plays.

Core road transportation revenues tepid: FY16 road transportation revenues comprising VRL’s goods transport segment, GATI’s KWE segment, and TCI’s Freight, XPS and Supply Chain Solutions divisions averaged 3% YoY growth as tonnage kms growth remained muted due to weak domestic demand and freight rates remained under pressure due to lower fuel prices (a key input cost). Segment margins which had begun to reflate in FY15 remained under pressure despite lower fuel price. Working capital situation witnessed a marginal improvement in FY16.

Structural GST beneficiaries; VRL well positioned: Among the listed domestic logistic peers, road transport operators are likely to see the highest positive impact from GST implementation (improved efficiency, shift in freight traffic from unorganized to organized, more outsourcing of in-house logistics, etc). Potential for both multiple and earnings expansion remain with benefit of higher volumes, and cost efficiencies. We maintain ADD rating on VRL Logistics and target price of Rs332 based on 18x FY18E EPS.

INDIA

Transportation and Logistics, July 3, 2016 ICICI Securities

2

Key Focus Charts

Chart 2: Tonnage kms growth has been muted in FY16 for most road transport players

Chart 3: Freight rates decoupled from fuel prices in FY16

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Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 4: Segment EBIT margins have been weak Chart 5: Working capital cycles have improved

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Chart 6: Trucking industry remains highly fragmented and could see consolidation with GST

Chart 7: Segment EBIT margins are well below cyclical peaks and can reflate with cost efficiencies

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1978-79 1993-94 2002-03 2008-09

SFOs (operators own upto 5 trucks) MFOs (operators own 6 to 20 trucks)

LFOs (operators own more than 20 trucks)

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Chart 8: VRL has the most attractive RoCEs Chart 9: Valuations near through-cycle averages

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Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Road freight transportation segment analysis ............................................................. 4

VRL, TCI and GATI derive >70% of revenues from road freight business ..................... 4

Top-line growth has been tepid in FY16 ......................................................................... 4

Freight rates decoupled from fuel prices ......................................................................... 5

Tonnage km growth deteriorated – VRL was most impacted ......................................... 5

Segment margins impacted by non-fuel cost pressures ................................................. 6

Working capital cycle has improved ................................................................................ 7

GST implementation likely to be beneficial for road freight players .......................... 8

Multiple expansion is likely to sustain for domestic transportation focused businesses 9

Road freight operator valuations remain in-line with through-cycle averages .............. 10

We prefer VRL in the sector .......................................................................................... 11


4

Road freight transportation segment analysis

VRL, TCI and GATI derive >70% of revenues from road freight business

The listed surface transportation space comprises full-truck load, less-than-truckload

and express delivery players including VRL Logistics, TCI, and GATI.

Road freight segment revenues contribute >70% to total consolidated revenues for

VRL, TCI and GATI.

FY16 road freight revenues comprise VRL’s goods transport segment, GATI’s KWE

segment, and TCI’s Freight, XPS and Supply Chain Solutions divisions.

Chart 10: >70% of revenues derived from road freight for three biggest transportation players in India

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Goods transportation Others


Top-line growth has been tepid in FY16

FY16 road freight revenue growth for VRL, TCI and GATI averaged 3% YoY due to

weak freight rates and weak tonnage km growth.

In the case of VRL which focuses on the less-than-truckload segment, the entire

growth can be largely attributed to freight increase of nearly 4% since its tonnage km

growth remained flat.

In the case of TCI and GATI whose businesses are more institutional driven, the top-

line growth was primarily tonnage km growth driven.

Table 1: Key road freight segment revenues

(Rs mn)

FY14 FY15 YoY FY16 YoY

VRL (GT segment) 11,281 12,908 14% 13,563 5% TCI (Freight, XPS, SCS segment) 21,307 23,323 9% 24,157 4% GATI (KWE) * 10,448 11,424 9% 11,420 0%

Source: Company data, I-Sec research; * FY14 segment revenue of GATI has been annualized for comparison


5

Freight rates decoupled from fuel prices

Freight rates have historically been highly correlated to diesel price movement in India

since fuel is a key cost component (more than 25% of revenues).

Freight rates decoupled from fuel prices in FY16 as road transport operators tried to

maintain rates despite a significant drop in fuel prices.

Chart 11: Freight rates have decoupled from diesel prices in FY16

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Source: Company data, Industry sources, I-Sec research

Tonnage km growth deteriorated – VRL was most impacted

FY16 tonnage kilometres growth declined in FY16 (average peer group growth of ~2%

versus ~6% in FY15). Tonnage km growth has been derived by subtracting average

industry freight growth from total revenue growth.

Decline in tonnage km growth was reflective of the weak underlying economy in FY16

(rural economy impacted by drought, IIP growth averaged ~2.4%, etc).

Tonnage km growth deteriorated for all three players with VRL being more affected

due to its higher dependence on rural economy and small and medium enterprises.


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Chart 12: Tonnage kms growth declined in FY16 post the recovery in FY15

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Segment margins impacted by non-fuel cost pressures

Segment EBIT margins remained under pressure in FY16 despite a decrease in fuel

costs due to continued increase in other costs (employees, toll charges, etc).

In the case of VRL, the company had effected ~20% across the board pay hike for its

employees in July 2015, which offset the gains from lower diesel prices. Going

forward, VRL management indicated that key costs (employee, etc) are likely to move

in-line with inflation.

Chart 13: EBIT margins declined for VRL and GATI in FY16

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7

Working capital cycle has improved

Working capital is an important operational metric for a road transport operator, and

the net working capital cycle has improved over the last two years for operators.

VRL enjoys the most favourable working capital cycle due to its significantly lower

receivable days (15 days as opposed to 65 days and 63 days for TCI and GATI

respectively).

VRL’s efficient working capital cycle is due to its low concentration of institutional

customers and high dependence on the less-than-truckload business where

customers typically make payments upon receipt of goods.

Chart 14: VRL enjoys a superior working capital cycle due to lower receivable days

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GST implementation likely to be beneficial for road freight players

GST is anticipated to be introduced in the Upper House (Rajya Sabha) for passage in

the forthcoming Monsoon session (from July 18). GST implementation is anticipated to

be beneficial for the road freight sector with improved efficiency, shift in freight traffic

from unorganized to organized, more outsourcing of in-house logistics, etc.

Scope for consolidation in a highly fragmented market

Freight transporters are broadly classified as small fleet operators (SFOs), medium

fleet operators (MFOs) and large fleet operators (LFOs) on the basis of number of

trucks they own or control.

Typically, a LFO owns more than 20 trucks, while SFO owns less than 5 trucks. VRL is

one of the largest LFOs in India with a fleet of 3,649 trucks.

Road freight transportation is highly fragmented, with SFOs cornering a high market

share of approximately 77%, as per CRISIL. Low entry barriers have led to a

proliferation of small truck operators, resulting in fragmentation of the segment.

Chart 15: LFOs gain share, but SFOs still dominate

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SFOs (operators own upto 5 trucks) MFOs (operators own 6 to 20 trucks)

LFOs (operators own more than 20 trucks)

Source: Company data, CRISIL,I-Sec research

The GST regime is expected to benefit the logistics sector, particularly inter-state

movement of goods. GST implementation can be a key driver as we anticipate freight

volumes to gradually shift from the unorganised to organised sector, and larger

established players to build more scale.

Our checks with supply chain experts also indicate that companies which currently

manage supply chain in-house due to lack of input tax credits and higher cost of

transport are likely to start outsourcing supply chain activities post GST to third-party

vendors. Resultant buildup of scale for operators is likely to help reduce overall

logistics costs.


9

Improvement in cost efficiencies

GST is anticipated to reduce, and in some cases eliminate, checkposts at staborders,

which can lead to improved trucking efficiency.

Being a highly cyclical sector, we note that segment EBIT margins still remain below

prior peaks, and could structurally trend higher with benefit from cost efficiencies post

GST implementation.

Chart 16: Segment EBIT margins remain well below peak in a cyclical industry

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Multiple expansion is likely to sustain for domestic transportation focused businesses

GST implementation is anticipated to positively impact domestic transportation based

companies such as VRL Logistics, TCI, GATI.

In the listed space, Gateway Distriparks, Gujarat Pipavav, Navkar Corporation and

Container Corporation have greater than 80% revenue and EBIT exposure to EXIM

related cargo, and are highly exposed to EXIM prospects.


10

Table 2: India Logistics Universe

Segments

Company

Mkt Cap

($ mn)

EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) P/B (x) Net D/E

(x) FY16A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY16A FY17E FY18E FY16A FY17E FY18E

Container Rail Freight/CFS/ ICDs

CONCOR 4,232 20.2 19.7 16.5 33.9 30.0 25.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 (0.1)

Gateway Distriparks 503 13.6 12.9 10.4 27.8 25.6 18.6 3.2 2.9 2.7 0.0

Allcargo Logistics 675 8.0 7.5 6.7 14.5 13.9 10.4 1.8 1.9 1.7 0.1

Segment Average

13.9 13.4 11.2 25.4 23.2 18.1 2.8 2.7 2.5

Multimodal/ Road transport/ Express delivery

VRL Logistics 425 10.6 9.9 8.5 27.1 20.2 16.3 5.4 4.9 4.2 0.3

Transport Corp of India

360 12.6 11.5 10.0 24.9 22.3 20.1 3.4 3.1 2.8 0.4

GATI 221 10.6 10.6 10.3 25.9 18.0 14.2 1.7 2.6 2.3 0.5

Blue Dart 2,097 35.1 36.4 26.0 74.5 62.8 51.6 34.7 17.4 22.2 0.2

Segment Average

17.3 17.1 13.7 38.1 30.8 25.5 11.3 7.0 7.9

Ports

Adani Ports 6,291 14.6 12.0 10.6 17.9 15.2 14.2 3.9 2.7 2.3 1.4

Gujarat Pipavav 1,168 22.0 16.4 13.4 36.0 26.2 21.8 4.5 3.7 3.3 (0.2)

Segment Average

18.3 14.2 12.0 27.0 20.7 18.0 4.2 3.2 2.8

Liquid storage logistics

Aegis Logistics 626 20.6 17.7 12.4 33.1 26.5 17.8 7.4 7.0 5.5 0.1

Kesar Terminals 41 11.9 9.5 8.7 13.0 14.9 13.2 3.3 NA NA 1.2

Segment Average

16.2 13.6 10.5 23.1 20.7 15.5 5.4 7.0 5.5

Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

Road freight operator valuations remain in-line with through-cycle averages

Freight transport sector valuation multiples in the past 3 years have rerated from

trough levels to average through-cycle levels on the back of volume growth

expectations driven by e-commerce growth potential, expectations on GST, falling

diesel prices (key input cost), and scarcity premium (relatively under-owned sector).

Chart 17: TCI historical 1-year forward P/E chart Chart 18: GATI historical 1-year forward P/E chart

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11

Foreign institutional ownership remains low in the sector with highest FII ownership

seen in VRL (~12%), GATI (8%), and TCI (2.5%).

Table 3: Ownership summary as of Mar’16

Company Promoter holding % FII holding % Others%

VRL 69.6 11.9 18.5 GATI 41.0 8.3 50.7 TCI 66.5 2.5 31.0

Source: I-Sec research, Company reports

We prefer VRL in the sector

We prefer VRL Logistics which has the highest RoCE, a strong balance sheet, and

consistent FCF generation track record (FCF positive in five of last six years) aided by

an efficient working capital cycle.

Chart 19: Road freight segment RoCEs are highest for VRL

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VRL TCI GATI


Chart 20: VRL also has the highest consolidated RoCE

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Segment Consol Segment Consol

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TCI GATI VRL



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Chart 21: VRL is expected to trade at a premium over peers due to a superior working capital, and is cheaper when factoring in growth (FY18E)

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Source: I-Sec research, Bloomberg

Table 4: Stock performance across Indian logistics sector

(%) YTD 6 month 12 month 3 years 5 years

CONCOR 4 4 (13) 33 98 Gateway Distriparks (4) (4) (13) 185 144 Allcargo Logistics (11) (11) 12 93 104 VRL Logistics (28) (28) 2 NA NA Transport Corp of India 3 3 30 510 268 GATI (3) (3) (2) 505 168 Blue Dart (12) (12) (2) 137 303 Adani Ports (23) (23) (34) 37 32 Gujarat Pipavav 6 6 (25) 239 147 Aegis Logistics 18 18 53 882 466

Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research


13

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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)

BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

We /I, Sandeep Mathew, MMS; Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research

report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly

related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and are not associated persons of the

ICICI Securities Inc.

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