VOTING BEHAVIORVOTING BEHAVIOR

FAMILYFAMILY

Tremendous influence upon the way one Tremendous influence upon the way one votes.votes.

80% of the populace votes the same way as 80% of the populace votes the same way as their parents do.their parents do.

FRIENDSFRIENDS

Highest percentage Highest percentage amongst amongst ““self-chosenself-chosen”” friends.friends.

Co-workers share Co-workers share some tendencies as some tendencies as well.well.

AGEAGE

Younger people tend Younger people tend to vote Democratic.to vote Democratic.

They tend to be more They tend to be more idealistic--realism hasidealistic--realism hasnn’’t set in yet.t set in yet.

Age 35 or older tend to Age 35 or older tend to vote Republican.vote Republican.

SOUTHSOUTH

From Civil War to From Civil War to approximately the approximately the Reagan Revolution the Reagan Revolution the ““Solid SouthSolid South”” tended to tended to vote democratic.vote democratic.

Since then, the Since then, the Republicans have Republicans have made inroads and now made inroads and now have established have established control. control. ““New South.New South.””

MIDWESTMIDWEST

Tends to vote Tends to vote Republican.Republican.

Conservative values Conservative values and slower pace of life.and slower pace of life.

““Bible Belt.Bible Belt.””

GREAT LAKESGREAT LAKES

Tends to vote Tends to vote Democratic.Democratic.

Especially in traditional Especially in traditional manufacturing centers.manufacturing centers.

ROCKY MOUNTAINSROCKY MOUNTAINS

Generally Republican, Generally Republican, but lately the but lately the Democrats are coming Democrats are coming on in states like on in states like Colorado.Colorado.

WEST COASTWEST COAST

Tends to vote Democratic.Tends to vote Democratic. Though there are specific conservative Though there are specific conservative ““pocketspockets””, ,

like San Diego and Orange County.like San Diego and Orange County.

URBANURBAN

Tends to vote Democratic. Tends to vote Democratic. Traditional labor and minorities tend to live in Traditional labor and minorities tend to live in

cities.cities.

SUBURBIASUBURBIA

Due to Due to ““white flightwhite flight”” from from the inner cities, the inner cities, historically suburbs historically suburbs tend to vote tend to vote Republican.Republican.

The more diverse the The more diverse the suburb is, then the suburb is, then the greater possibility of greater possibility of Democratic inroads.Democratic inroads.

FARMERSFARMERS

Rural families tied to Rural families tied to the land.the land.

Conservative usually Conservative usually with possible with possible evangelical evangelical connections.connections.

Agribusiness--Agribusiness--Combination of Combination of farming and large farming and large businesses.businesses.

LABORLABOR

Traditionally considered Traditionally considered ““blue collarblue collar”” workers. workers.

Tends to vote Tends to vote overwhelming Democratic.overwhelming Democratic.

Union membership plays a Union membership plays a major influence.major influence.

PROFESSIONALPROFESSIONAL

Traditionally Traditionally considered considered ““white white collarcollar”” workers. workers.

Tend to vote Tend to vote Republican due to Republican due to greater association greater association with business.with business.

MINORITIESMINORITIES

Tend to vote Tend to vote Democratic.Democratic.

Immigrant groups Immigrant groups historically linked with historically linked with the Democratic Party.the Democratic Party.

African-Americans African-Americans overwhelmingly vote overwhelmingly vote Democratic.Democratic.

WASPSWASPS

White Anglo-Saxon Protestants tend to vote White Anglo-Saxon Protestants tend to vote Republican.Republican.

Power elite in U.S. historically.Power elite in U.S. historically.

RELIGIONRELIGION

Protestants: RepublicanProtestants: Republican Jews: Democrat (80%+)Jews: Democrat (80%+) Catholic: DemocratCatholic: Democrat Muslim: DemocratMuslim: Democrat Born-Again Christians: RepublicanBorn-Again Christians: Republican Other: DemocratOther: Democrat

EDUCATIONEDUCATION

The more highly The more highly educated you are, the educated you are, the greater the tendency to greater the tendency to vote Republican.vote Republican.

GENDERGENDER

Males are more likely Males are more likely than females to vote than females to vote Republican.Republican.

Females are more Females are more likely to vote likely to vote Democratic than Democratic than males.males.

INCOMEINCOME

The wealthier you are, The wealthier you are, then the greater then the greater likelihood you vote likelihood you vote Republican.Republican.

$60,000 barrier--$60,000 barrier--below, then below, then Democratic; above, Democratic; above, GOP.GOP.

IDEOLOGYIDEOLOGY

Liberal: Democratic (by far)Liberal: Democratic (by far)

Moderate: DemocraticModerate: Democratic

Conservative: Republican (by far)Conservative: Republican (by far)

POLITICAL PARTY POLITICAL PARTY AFFILIATIONAFFILIATION

Probably the strongest predictor in voting.Probably the strongest predictor in voting. However, more people today However, more people today ““vote the man, vote the man,

not the partynot the party””.. Straight ticket voting has declined.Straight ticket voting has declined. Split ticket voting has recently increased.Split ticket voting has recently increased. Strong vs. weak party members.Strong vs. weak party members. Independents and Independents and ““LeanersLeaners””..

CROSS PRESSURESCROSS PRESSURES

The more factors The more factors involved in the same involved in the same direction, then the direction, then the more likely to vote that more likely to vote that way.way.

Mixture of factors, then Mixture of factors, then vote in question.vote in question.

Some factors can be Some factors can be predominant. (Race)predominant. (Race)

COATTAIL EFFECTCOATTAIL EFFECT

Presence of an Presence of an especially strong especially strong presidential candidate presidential candidate can influence voters.can influence voters.

VOTER TURNOUTVOTER TURNOUT

Suffrage qualifications eliminated:Suffrage qualifications eliminated: 1. Religion (state legislatures)1. Religion (state legislatures) 2. Property (state legislatures)2. Property (state legislatures) 3. Race (15th Amendment)3. Race (15th Amendment) 4. Gender (19th Amendment)4. Gender (19th Amendment) 5. Income (24th Amendment-poll tax)5. Income (24th Amendment-poll tax) 6. Literacy (Voting Rights Act of 1965)6. Literacy (Voting Rights Act of 1965) 7. Minimum age of 21 (26th Amendment)7. Minimum age of 21 (26th Amendment)

CURRENT QUALIFICATIONSCURRENT QUALIFICATIONS

Set by states:Set by states: 1. Citizenship1. Citizenship 2. Residency2. Residency 3. Age3. Age 4. Registration (in all states but ND)4. Registration (in all states but ND)

VOTER TURNOUT IN U.S. VOTER TURNOUT IN U.S. COMPAREDCOMPARED

U.S. Presidential Election: 2000—54.2%; 2004--U.S. Presidential Election: 2000—54.2%; 2004--60.1%; and 2008—61.6%(Highest turnout since 60.1%; and 2008—61.6%(Highest turnout since 1992--68%)1992--68%)

U.S. Midterm Election: 1998--35.3%, U.S. Midterm Election: 1998--35.3%, 2002—39.5%, 2006—40.4%, and 2010—40.9%.2002—39.5%, 2006—40.4%, and 2010—40.9%.

http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2010G.html Comparable industrialized nations in the West are Comparable industrialized nations in the West are

as high as 90%. This is deceiving because…as high as 90%. This is deceiving because…

The U.S. does not impose The U.S. does not impose penalties for voting like penalties for voting like Australia, France, Belgium Australia, France, Belgium and others.and others.

Other nations have multi-Other nations have multi-party systems that allow party systems that allow for more choice, and, for more choice, and, perhaps, a more perhaps, a more meaningful vote.meaningful vote.

Other nations have Other nations have automatic/same day automatic/same day registration.registration.

WHY LOW TURNOUT?WHY LOW TURNOUT?

Registration (CongressRegistration (Congress’’s Motor Voter Act [1993] has s Motor Voter Act [1993] has helped some, but 2001 study found that motor-voter helped some, but 2001 study found that motor-voter registrants had a lower turnout rate than other new registrants had a lower turnout rate than other new voters.)voters.)

Long BallotLong Ballot Election type (General v. Primary; Presidential v. Election type (General v. Primary; Presidential v.

Midterm; and, National v. State)Midterm; and, National v. State) Absentee ballot difficultiesAbsentee ballot difficulties Too many electionsToo many elections Age restrictionsAge restrictions Single day electionsSingle day elections

There are also political reasons:There are also political reasons: Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, and Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, and

politics in general--voter apathy.politics in general--voter apathy. Lack of strong 2-party competition.Lack of strong 2-party competition. Weakness of parties in mobilizing voters.Weakness of parties in mobilizing voters.

SO, WHO VOTES?SO, WHO VOTES?

Those who are registered to vote already (89% in Those who are registered to vote already (89% in 2004).2004).

Those with high levels of educational achievement, Those with high levels of educational achievement, regardless of race, gender, or income status are regardless of race, gender, or income status are more likely to vote than those with low levels.more likely to vote than those with low levels.

And, those with higher levels of income are more And, those with higher levels of income are more likely to vote.likely to vote.

And, those who are older are likely to vote.And, those who are older are likely to vote. And, those who are white are more likely to vote.And, those who are white are more likely to vote.

WHY CARE?WHY CARE?

If voters accurately represented a cross-section of If voters accurately represented a cross-section of the U.S., then low voter turnout would be relatively the U.S., then low voter turnout would be relatively unimportant.unimportant.

However, the problem is that older whites with However, the problem is that older whites with higher levels of income and educational higher levels of income and educational achievements are over-represented.achievements are over-represented.

This is critical in understanding why it might be This is critical in understanding why it might be easier to elect a Republican rather than a easier to elect a Republican rather than a Democrat, as the profile above predicts GOP.Democrat, as the profile above predicts GOP.