volcanic ash crisis 2010 seminar belgrade, 7 th september 2010 european organisation for the safety...
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Volcanic Ash Crisis 2010 Seminar Belgrade, 7th September 2010
European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
Brian FLYNNEUROCONTROL/CFMU
Network Operations
1.14th April – 28th April2.European coordination 3.3rd May to 23rd May4.The next one …?
It all started on 14th April …
From contingency
to crisis
VAAC London - First Volcanic Ash Advisory - 14th April
CFMU activates its volcanic ash contingency procedure
• Early warning – issue information on volcanic ash activity
• On request of national ATC providers : CFMU applies measures effectively closing airspace
• Inform the network e.g. organise teleconferences, help desk
Europe enters an ash aviation crisis on Thursday 15 April
Impact on the European traffic (15 April – 21 April)
Daily Traffic per Volcano Activity Week
2857
8
2859
7
2265
3
2496
5
2812
6
2750
8
2808
7
2084
2
1165
9
9330
5204
5335
2191
1
1310
1
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
W201015 W201016
• 54% of flights not operated
• More than 100,000 flights
• 1% of annual traffic
Traffic in Europe 14th to 21st April 2010
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
PARIS CH DE GAULLE
FRANKFURT MAIN
LONDON/HEATHROW
MADRID BARAJAS
MUENCHEN 2
SCHIPHOL AMSTERDAM
ROME FIUMICINO
BARCELONA
WIEN SCHWECHAT
ISTANBUL-ATATURK
COPENHAGEN KASTRUP
ZURICH
PARIS ORLY
OSLO/GARDERMOEN
DUESSELDORF
BRUSSELS NATIONAL
STOCKHOLM-ARLANDA
ATHINAI/ELEFTHERIOS VENIZELOS
MILANO MALPENSA
GENEVA
W201016
W201015
Impact on Airports (traffic)
In the area directly affected by the ash – 70% reduction
Outside of the area directly affected by the ash – 23% reduction
Impact on Aircraft Operators (traffic)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
LUFTHANSA
RYANAIR
EASYJET
AIR FRANCE
SCANDINAVIAN AIRLINES SYSTEM
AIR BERLIN
TURKISH AIRLINES
KLM ROYAL DUTCH AIRLINES
ALITALIA
BRITISH AIRWAYS
IBERIA AIRLINES
AUSTRIAN AIRLINES
SWISS INTERNATIONAL AIR LINES
AIR NOSTRUM
NORWEGIAN AIR SHUTTLE
WIDEROES FLYVESELSKAP
TAP PORTUGAL
VUELING AIRLINES
LOT POLISH AIRLINES
OLYMPIC AIRLINES
W201015 W201016
In the area directly affected by the ash – average reduction of 67%
Outside affected areas - average reduction of 20%
Several airlines lost more than 80% of foreseen traffic
• Coordination – EC & EUROCONTROL– EC – political leadership – EUROCONTROL – network management
expertise
• EUROCONTROL proposes three options
• Teleconference of the EUROCONTROL Provisional Council (AM) & EU Council of Ministers (PM) – option 3
Unlocking the crisis: 19th April
OPTION 3
- NO FLY ZONE - Contaminated Zone
- Ash Free Zone
EUROCONTROL charts:•to assist states in
determining NO FLY ZONE•buffer of 60NM
States to decide on
NO FLY ZONE
NEW ROLE FOR EUROCONTROL/CFMU
• Early warning – issue information on volcanic ash activity
• On request of national ATC providers : CFMU applies measures
• Facilitate information exchange e.g. organise teleconferences, help desk
• Publish charts to assist states in deciding on NO FLY ZONE
• NOP used as central data repository
• Closures in UK and Ireland, then Portugal, Spain, Italy, Morocco
• 11th May – UK CAA/Met Office remove the 60NM buffer following a safety assessment - States retain prerogative to add the 60NM buffer
• 18th May - UK CAA/Met Office issue a new CHART: black, grey, red
• 21st May – EASA issue a Safety Information Bulletin:
• NO FLY ZONE, – ENHANCED PROCEDURES ZONE: GREY AND
RED, – NORMAL ZONE
3rd May – Volcanic ash procedures restarted…
NEW UK MET OFFICE CHART
Country 15/04/10 16/04/10 17/04/10 18/04/10 19/04/10 20/04/10 21/04/10 Total
EB 6 1 1 1 1 5 3 18
ED 17 61 58 69 39 44 58 346
EE 1 1 1 1 3 7
EF 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 33
EG 40 34 31 29 29 47 5 215
EH 13 10 10 11 13 28 13 98
EI 12 10 10 6 7 7 52
EK 8 2 2 2 2 5 2 23
EN 8 7 7 7 4 8 41
EP 1 6 1 1 3 12
ES 26 9 8 7 25 26 24 125
LB 2 2
LD 6 4 2 12
LE 4 22 26
LF 29 46 72 67 30 39 4 287
LH 1 1 1 1 4
LI 1 8 13 16 22 60
LJ 4 3 2 9
LK 2 1 1 1 5
LO 12 9 9 6 36
LR 2 9 9 9 29
LS 8 15 13 12 10 58
LW 1 1
LY 2 2 4
LZ 1 1 1 1 4
MA 11 17 10 6 5 5 54 UK 2 18 20 4 1 45
Total 177 236 293 312 213 261 114 1606
Daily Number of ATFM Regulations Applied
Hourly number of Exclusions Applied - Tuesday
Total
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Total
Day (All)
Count of S_FLT_LOBT
Hour
• European Aviation market : a €140 billion business • Air traffic control/management costs €8 billion for >9 million flights/year• Airlines incurred €9 billions losses in 2009 because of the economic crisis• • In 2007, delays generated €1.3 billion of costs to airlines (2010 – €1.7 billion?).• Flight inefficiencies generate substantial additional fuel burn – estimated at more than €1 billion per year - and generate some additional 16 million tonnes of CO2 per year.
Crisis – What Crisis
•The volcanic ash cloud crisis cost airlines €1.26 billion in a week
• Close or advise• Who closes – ATS, CAA ……….• What scientific criteria?• What times to close, notice, duration, reopen?• Network Information Sharing• Managing scarce resources• Role of Network manager
Questions
• Have we got dramatically different approaches Europe v North America?
• What criteria are used to close, restrict airspace, airports?
• How, where are these published?
• Even if harmonised criteria, application is still at national level
• Who decides (CAA, Regulator, ANSP….)?
Issues - Dealing with ICAO, States and Regulators
• Dynamic closures of airspace volumes not yet a functionality of European ATM (responsibility for penetration)
• Legal basis of ATFM measures
• Unsustainable workload for central unit
• Uncertainty regarding periods of closure
• Emergency ATFCM Operating Procedures
Issues - ANSP / FMP / CFMU
• Teleconferences chaotic and unmanageable
• Teleconferences not secure
• Uncertainty regarding periods of closure
• NOP Portal pushed to limits
• Reading of NOTAM, SIGMET, NOP, etc.
• E-mail help line
• Airline Representative associations
Issues – AO – Information – Complexity - Tools
• Can the “contact your local airline”, go to the airport”, etc. approach continue for major international events.
• Who should play and pay for this role – EC, EUROCONTROL, IATA?
• Passenger rights
Issues - Dealing with the Public
Discussion Points• Crisis cells are not executive bodies. They are there to
coordinate, collect and provide advice and information. There should be no duplication or usurping of decisions that are in the competence of states and regulatory agencies.
• The concept of safe / unsafe operations based on 6 hourly predictions is not valid. We need to move away from the notion that we can use airspace regulations to solve an air worthiness issue. The objective is to find what sort of conditions aircraft can operate in, i.e. how we can move to option 2 satisfying air worthiness considerations.
• Whatever thresholds and guidance are established need to be accepted and applies on a European wide basis.
Final Remarks
• Even if the current crisis has passed and more tolerant contamination thresholds have been established we could still have a very major disruption if the volcano were to recommence
• How prepared are we for another type of crisis?