© 2011 COMMETRIC. Influence Analyser Report

www.commetric.com

Volatility of Global Commodity Prices

– a stakeholder mapping analysis

Jan – Mar 2011

2© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA Analysis – An Overview

OverviewInfluencer Network Analysis (INA) is a patented methodology which combined natural language processing and automated entity extraction, human analysis

and sophisticated mapping techniques. It enables the processing of a volume of data on press coverage and shows the inter-connections between all parties.

This opens up the chance for communication professionals to ask informed questions about these links, which in turn provides a report offering actionable

data which can enhance a press team‟s performance moving forward. It layman‟s terms – INA mapping shows up good questions to ask, a report such as this

answers them – the PR team can then act upon these findings.

Media SetThe analysed media set comprised 638 articles published in media in the 3-month period between 01 January 2011 and 31 March 2011. The stories were

mostly English-language in origin and coming from online sources from across the world.

This ‘sample report’ on the volatility of food pricesFor anyone who wishes to influence a debate on a topic of national or international importance it is important to understand who the key participants are, and

how they are connected with each other. This report attempts to do that by identifying the top connections and explaining what they mean.

In exploring these connections in a deeper way, the INA methodology guides you into a better understanding of how experts, journalists, government officials

or company executives are linked. It shows you areas of common ground, it shows you where there are exceptions which may be of particular importance.

Objectives of INA studies include:– Profile the organisations and organisation spokespeople engaged in media discussion

– Uncover the issues and topics that drive media discussion

– Discover unknown commentators, influencers and experts

– Discover common themes among seemingly unrelated commentators or media outlets

– Identify stakeholder opportunities to leveraging programs

– Analyze diffusion patterns and information flow

– Identify secondary media outlets outside the scope of key targets

3© 2011 COMMETRIC

Executive Summary – The Growing Problem

Food Prices now at 2008 levels – the global benchmark year of food riots around the world

• According to the February edition of Food Price Watch, the World Bank‟s food price index rose by 15% between

October 2010 and January 2011, it was 29% above its level a year earlier, and was only 3% below its 2008 peak.

Panic buying, particularly by worried Arab nations

• With „revolt in the air‟ in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere this pressure on

demand has forced already high food price still further - “Importers are paying 20% more for a metric ton of wheat on

the Paris NYSE Euronext bourse than on the Chicago Board of Trade because they need cargoes now,‖ said Gautier

Le Molgat, a consultant at Paris-based Agritel, in early February.

• Speaking at the Sustainable Phosphorus Summit at Arizona State University in early February, academic experts

Dana Cordell & Stuart White saw dangers in instability in the Middle East causing alarm in food security as near

monopolies of phosphate supplies that constitute (to a large part) fertiliser could be threatened if Morocco fell to the

current unrest.

Weakening dollar due to U.S. Fed quantitative easing has inadvertently pushed prices higher

• The US Federal Reserve‟s policy of quantitative easing inadvertently raised asset prices by buying U.S. Treasury

bonds to attack deflation. One side effect of this policy is that the dollar has weakened against other currencies, and

that is what commodities such as wheat or corn trade in; hence the rise.

Extreme examples of weather related incidents hitting crop yields in major food producer nations

• Climate change, or weather-related incidents have added to worries over supply being able to meet fast growing

demand. For instance, Argentina, Australia & Pakistan all suffered from particularly heavy rains which hit crop yields.

Russia was recovering from a devastating 2010 drought and is reluctant to resume exports.

Affluence or increasing prosperity in emerging markets has led to increased demand

• Emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil soaked up a rapidly bigger market share of crops while recovery

in the world‟s biggest economy in the U.S was beginning, boosting demand. And news of a drought in north-eastern

China emerged, potentially making matters even worse; Shandong Province, which traditionally grows 20 per cent of

China's wheat, is facing its worst drought in 200 years. In other areas the big dry is the worst in 60 years.

The elephant in the room - oil prices

• The Moscow Times recently explained the sharp oil price spikes thus: “Now oil prices are determined not so much

by supply and demand — as was long thought to be the primary factor — but by financial markets. Most oil is

currently traded using derivative financial instruments that are not based on the physical exchange of crude oil

between seller and buyer. In the1990s, physical transactions accounted for about 30% of oil traded, but they now

number less than 1%. In effect, oil has become a speculative commodity whose price is determined by how investors

anticipate its value will increase or decrease at a given point in the future.‖

Queensland floods

Sinaloa (Mexico) flash frosts

North-eastern China drought

4© 2011 COMMETRIC

Executive Summary – The Lack of Solutions

Lack of investment in new agricultural techniques

• The yield growth in cereals during the 60‟s was around 3% a year. Today it is only 1.1%. There is a big decline because

we are investing less, the population is growing, incomes are increasing and people are moving to urban areas. The

result is that we are getting tighter markets: any small shock in the market will have a big effect, as we are seeing.

Climate change effects are liable to make matters worse

The modest warming that the world has experienced so far may not be the main cause of the floods, droughts and violent

storms, but the rise in temperature will continue because the world cannot find the political will to stop the greenhouse-

gas emissions. Computer modelling suggests that a rule of thumb is that we lose about 10% of world food production for

every rise of 1C in average global temperature.

Where are the policies to avert the impact of climate change on agriculture?

• ―Nobody has really thought yet about how and if we can mitigate climate change in agriculture," admitted Dr Josef

Schmidhuber, head of the global perspectives study unit at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO),

indicating that although there is a lot of talk about averting the impact of climate change, no policies have been

implemented yet to solve the problem.

The Foresight Report on Global Food and Farming Futures

Presented by the UK government‟s chief scientific adviser, Professor John Beddington, the report warned of a “perfect

storm” of a growing population, climate change and diminishing resources for food production. The findings were the

culmination of a two-year study involving 400 experts from 35 countries and as Beddington put it, highlights the case for

“decisive action and collaborative decision-making across multiple areas including development, investment, science and

trade” to tackle food challenges.

World may see up to 50m environmental refugees by 2020

• Predictions made by Professor Cristina Tirado at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement

of Science: “When people are not living in sustainable conditions, they migrate.” She was backed by the University of

Michigan‟s Ewan Todd who spoke on how food scarcity was affecting world politics with likely migrant flows northwards

from Africa and the USDA‟s Ray Knighton who saw climatic incidents as tipping the balance. He also cited droughts that

make plants vulnerable to disease, floods that cause fungal infections, changing wind currents that spread disease

spores, suggesting that the transmission of Asian soya bean rust was a classic case.

Food & Energy security now critical to avoid conflict

• In advance of G20 meetings at the end of January, Indonesia‟ s President Bambang Yudhoyano publicly called on the

G20 to focus on food and energy security to avoid conflict as rising populations increase competition for natural

resources.

President Sarkozy – Head of G20

Robert Zoellick

President of World Bank

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Executive Summary – Solutions beginning, but conflicts continue

Arguments over GM/nanotechnology & other new technologies are still raging

• Scientists have warned that food prices could double unless farming undergoes the "greenest revolution"

including genetic modification, cloned livestock and nanotechnology, but Kirtana Chandrasekaran, Friends of the

Earth‟s Food Campaigner, warned that GM is not a silver bullet. “Hopes are pinned on GM technology but crop

science has moved on. Other technologies have delivered drought-resistant plants while GM crops have proved to

be a disaster for the environment and farmers,” she said referring to John Beddington‟s Foresight Report.

Solutions cannot be found with money & technology alone

• The World Watch Institute‟s ’State of the World’ report for 2010, spoke of „impressive success in terms of

productivity in major grain producers and some parts of Asia that have raised yields and reduced poverty.‟ It also

said that much of south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa was less successful due to under investment in agriculture. It

added that until recently most policymakers believed that the only route to advancing agriculture in these places

was to accelerate the so-called Green Revolution – provide more productive seeds and fertilizer and thereby raise

yields. In many cases this has not worked. The notion that world hunger can be eliminated with money and

technology alone is being discredited not just by its own shortcomings, but by evidence that new approaches to

building a sustainable, nourishing agricultural system can supplement the innovations found in the standard

agricultural toolbox.

Need for standardised derivatives trading, & clear information on shared stockpiles to avoid

speculation

• Having been badly burnt by the banking crisis of no more than two years ago, there were signs that leading

western nations were particularly anxious about letting the market decide matters in such a finely-balanced

situation. So, the period was marked by frenetic activity by the G20 in the form of the incoming French Presidency.

Sarkozy argued that unlike oil, information on physical commodity stockpiles must improve (there was not a single

real calculation when Russia banned grain exports after a damaging drought in 2010). There was talk of investors

setting aside a deposit equal to part of the value of the raw material traded. There was also talk of a stronger body

being set up to make the trading of „standardised derivatives‟ more transparent, but, with funding being cut by

incoming U.S Republicans to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the European Market

Standards Authority having a staff of less than 100 to cover trading across 27 countries – the talk has yet to convert

to deed.

New thinking starting to come through

• Problems of this scale are bringing forward new thinking: in the UK, the James Hutton Institute was formed from

the merger of the Scottish Crop Research Institute (SCRI) and the Macaulay Land Use Institute, creating a

powerhouse for research into food, land use and climate change that will be the first of its kind in Europe.

Food & energy prices go on rising

6© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Organisations on Publications

Note: The Organisation to Publication map links the participating organisations in the debate (represented by circles) to the publications(represented by squares) in which they received coverage. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions theorganisation received, the colour shows the category it falls into. The width of the line is indicative of the number of articles in which thepublication mentions the organisation.

7© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Organisations on Publications - Key Findings

Organisations on Publications

On an organisational level, businesses, international organisations followed by NGOs figure

most on the Influencer Map. Noteworthy is just how few national government organisations

figure per se, with the exception of the USDA. Although it is fair to say that individuals from

national government level seem to have exerted more influence in terms of mentions than

the institutions they represent have done – particularly when the debate is considered at a

Sub Topic level (see earlier map).

In contrast, AAAS, the ISAAA, Rockefeller Foundation and Gates Foundation are far

better connected into the main food price dialogue. However, both sets of groups are

located away from the strongest organisational drivers of the food debate: FAO, UN, World

Bank and the EU.

Most businesses appeared to be to be found closely around the USDA. Although the map

points to connections only between Organisations and Publications , the location of

companies around the USDA can in some part be said to be reflecting the American

market‟s crucial commercial importance to the agrochemical and food industry.

Many of the main agrochemical companies are clustered between 33.4 (Dow

Agroscience) and 35.4 (DuPont). This organisation table reflects the clustering of

companies around key commercial markets (and the publications within them): in the EU &

the USA – with the USDA and European Commission appearing in the Top 10 centrality

table.

To a lesser degree, if these companies from the food and agrochemical sector are

automatically appearing whenever food price volatility is under discussion, it may well

reflect the fact that journalists/publications see them as being likely sources for possible

longer term solutions to the wider issues (e.g. How to feed the world in 2050). This would

in most instances be seen as an opportunity by communication professionals to shape the

debate still further.

However, a note of caution is needed, this point may be less true in terms of short term

solutions (where prices in commodity markets are driven by factors beyond anyone‟s

control).

With floods in Australia figuring prominently in the news in January, it is no surprise to see

regional antipodean newspapers The Age and Scoop NZ in the Top 10 list.

The prominence of Commodity Online is no surprise as it plays a leading role in shaping

the food price discussion. . Once again there are Antipodean publications in this top ten list,

as a result of the floods in Queensland at the start of the year. The Canadian publication

Globe & Mail reflects the importance of farming in Canada, a major food commodities

producer and therefore a close follower of the debate on the volatility of the food price

market.

Organisation Index

Monsanto 42.7

FAO 41.1

UN 37.4

DuPont 35.4

U.S. Department of Agriculture 35.2

Syngenta 34.9

Cargill Inc. 34.8

World Bank 34.5

European Commission 34.0

Dow AgroSciences 33.4

Publication Index

Reuters.com 42.9

Bloomberg.com 41.0

theage.com.au 40.4

Guardian.co.uk 39.6

commodityonline.com 39.1

Trust.org 39.1

theglobeandmail.com 38.8

hostednews.google.com 37.3

Scoop.co.nz 37.0

BusinessWeek.com 35.6

8© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Organisations on Reporters

Note: The Organisation to Reporter map links the participating organisations in the debate (represented by circles) to the reporters(represented by squares) who mentioned them. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the organisationreceived, the colour shows the category into which it falls. The width of the lines is indicative of the number of articles in which the reportermentions the organisation.

9© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Organisations on Reporters - Key Findings

Organisations to Reporters

Monsanto‟s influence (in terms of mentions in this study) is ahead of all other

organisations. There was a high profile legal challenge by activist groups of the USDA‟s

decision to permit Monsanto‟s GM alfalfa to be grown.

With the data for this study drawn principally from English language online sources, it

may explain the big lead Monsanto has over its competitors in terms of Centrality

score. The fact is, though, with the dominant influence of US newswires and English-

speaking media, Monsanto is closely associated in the press with the future and

prospects of new biotechnological solutions to address the issues of increased crop

yields. This study reflects that point and that is how it relates to the debate on the

volatility of world commodity prices.

Behind Monsanto one sees higher levels of influence on the map for FAO, the World

Bank and the UN - all of whom issued important reports that created a press impact

upon the debate surrounding the volatility of commodity.

However, given the preponderance of international organisations at the top of the table

opposite, there might be a case for more communication work raising the profile of the

agrochemical companies as providers of the solutions the world needs to these

particular problems.

Newswires dominate with only Kevin G Hall (McClatchy), Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

(The Age), Ingi Salgado (Independent Online) & Andrew Marshall (Farm Online

Australia) breaking up this group. This excludes Megan Rowling, who was working for

Trust.org which is part of the Thomson Reuters group, with this publication covering

humanitarian and famine relief news.

There are plethora of other interesting findings thrown up through this mapping that are

worthy of exploration: Michigan State University and University of California (via

reporter Karin Zeitvogel) have strong links with the U.S. Department of Agriculture

when measured against the stories for this period.

Journalist Kevin G Hall had strong connectivity with the U.S. Treasury, FAO and the

U.S Department of Agriculture.

Fellow writer Andrew Marshall with the People’s Bank of China, FAO and the United

Nations.

Newswires guru, Rudy Ruitenberg sits strongly between FAO and the United Nations.

Journalists Charlie Dunmore, Elizabeth Farrelly gave NGO activist groups a hearing

on these issues – suggesting an interest in these causes on her part.

Correspondent Rich Miller seemed well connected with market analysts – all useful for

a would be communications executive seeking to identify the best set of journalists to

talk to.

Organisation Index

Monsanto 41.3

FAO 37.2

UN 36.7

U.S. Department of Agriculture 34.6

DuPont 34.0

World Bank 33.8

Cargill Inc. 33.4

Syngenta 32.9

People’s Bank of China 30.7

BASF 30.3

Reporter IndexLuzi Ann Javier - Bloomberg.com 39.2

Jeff Wilson - Bloomberg.com 38.7

Megan Rowling - Trust.org 37.0

Carey Gillam - Reuters.com 32.8

Kevin G. Hall - McClatchy Newspapers 32.5

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - theage.com.au 31.8

Rich Miller - Bloomberg.com 31.5

Rudy Ruitenberg - Bloomberg.com 31.4

Ingi Salgado - Iol.co.za 30.7

Charlie Dunmore - Reuters.com 29.8

Andrew Marshall - farmonline.com.au 29.8

10© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Influencer on Sub-Topics

Note: The Influencer to Topic map links the participating influencers in the debate (represented by circles) to the topics (represented by squares) with which they were associated in the coverage.The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the influencer received, the color shows the category he into which he falls. The width of lines is indicative of the number ofarticles in which an influencer was associated with the topic.

11© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Influencer on Sub-Topics - Key Findings

Influencer on Sub-TopicsIn terms of Influencers, the five topics listed in this chart seem somewhat fragmented

suggesting there is chance for spokespeople or experts than can build a narrative across

all areas to drive debate.

The map indicates that three groups dominate: Government Officials, Experts &

International Organisation Representatives. Although in one area of debate: „How to Feed

the World in 2050‟ - there is an unusual cluster of Interest Group Representatives and in

the debate on International Commodity Prices one finds a batch of expert market

analysts. Though, in the latter case, this is not unsurprising. This phenomena repeats itself

for International Political Leadership, where you find International Organisations and for

Climate Incidents (often crisis based) where one finds a preponderance of government

officials.

However, there is a sense from these maps that political players are now actively pursuing

solutions to the growing fear of a potential global food price crisis. At the centre of the

map major political figures link more than one issue: Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy -

and lesser ones; Caroline Spelman and Bruno le Maire who do so also.

There are other figures playing a fairly central role who are more „in reach‟ in terms of the

potential to influence from an organisation‟s perspective; UK Chief Scientist, John

Beddington introduced his groundbreaking report based on the findings of some 400

scientists entitled: „Global Food and Farming Futures‟ late January. Another is UCLA‟s

Cristina Tirado who predicted millions of environmental refugees by 2020, at the annual

meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in February. The

impact of her comments - and fellow panellists Ewan Todd‟s, on how food scarcity was

affecting world politics with likely migrant flows point to the type of topics that the global

press are keen to report and the routes through which an organisation seeking to influence

world opinion could make them.

Indeed, experts (more often than enough University or Institute based) have a big role to

play in shaping what is perceived to be such an uncertain and unclear debate. "Nobody

has really thought yet about how and if we can mitigate climate change in agriculture"

admitted Dr Josef Schmidhuber, head of the global perspectives study unit at the United

Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), indicating that although there is a lot of

talk about averting the impact of climate change, no policies have been implemented yet

to begin to address the problem.

Gwynne Dwyer – ―Climate change is going to make the situation worse. The modest

warming that we have experienced so far may not be the main cause of the floods,

droughts and violent storms that have hurt this year's crops, but the rise in temperature

will continue because we cannot find the political will to stop the greenhouse-gas

emissions. A rule of thumb is that we lose about 10 per cent of world food production for

every rise of 1C in average global temperature.”

Therefore, comments by such experts can quickly set off a fire storm of press interest in

a particular area. Speaking at the AAAS event in February, the USDA‟s Ray Knighton

saw climatic incidents tipping the balance . He cited droughts that make plants vulnerable

to disease, floods that cause fungal infections, changing wind currents that spread

disease spores – suggesting that a classic case was the transmission of Asian soya

bean rust.

Dana Cordell & Stuart White from the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University

of Technology saw dangers in instability in the Middle East causing alarm in food security

as phosphate supplies could become in jeopardy. They spoke at the Sustainable

Phosphorus Summit at Arizona State University in early February.

The sense of the unknown worrying the world commodity markets persists, even so, as

influential Australian media (http://theland.farmonline.com.au/ commented: ―Drought

across five provinces responsible for more than half China's 100 million tonne wheat crop

could trigger a major foray into global markets - including Australia - by a nation which

prides itself on being largely self sufficient in wheat. Shandong Province, which

traditionally grows 20 per cent of China's wheat, is facing its worst drought in 200 years.

In other areas the big dry is the worst in 60 years.”

Topic Index

International Commodities Market 43.1

Political Reactions 39.9

International/Political Leadership 38.2

How to Feed the World in 2050 35.7

Climate Incidents 32.9

12© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Reporter on Sub-Topics

Note: The Reporter to Topics map links the participating reporters in the debate (represented by squares) to the topics (representedby circles) which they mentioned in coverage. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the topicreceived. The width of lines is indicative of the number of articles in which a topic was mentioned by the reporter.

13© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Reporter on Sub-Topics- Key Findings

Reporter on Sub-Topics

Runner up in the centrality table went to Rudy Ruitenberg, writing for Bloomberg. He

published influential commentary that was picked up by many news sources such

as:―Smaller stockpiles may mean more gains in food prices the UN says reached a record

last month. Rising food costs contributed to protests across northern Africa and the Middle

East, driving up inflation and spurring central banks to consider higher interest rates that

may slow global growth.‖

Reporting on a survey of market analysts by Bloomberg at the end of March, most

influential writer (he was joint top – see table to the right) Jeff Wilson recorded “U.S. corn

planting will expand this year to cover the second-largest area since World War II and still

fail to meet demand for feed and ethanol, driving prices to their highest in at least 34

years.”

Fellow „leading opinion reporter‟ – joint top with Wilson - Nicholas Larkin‟s work helped

drive the debate with stories such as ―Food costs are at ―dangerous levels‖ after pushing

44 million people into poverty since June, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said last

month. That adds to the more than 900 million people around the world who go hungry

each day, he said. It’s ―an incredibly difficult humanitarian story because the poorest

countries will be hit the hardest, as the average person is going to be swamped by food

inflation. The new arms race is food and energy.‖

INA maps throw up specialists with „additional influence‟ in certain areas under review –

one example is Associated Press‟ Malkhadir M. Muhumed, an expert writer on African

comment.

Then there is AFP‟s Karin Zeitvogel, who reported on Rajiv Shah, administrator of the US

Agency for International Development (USAID), pleading with Congress for support on the

food aid budget as it faced the prospect of steep cuts: "This is the moment when America

must decide if we're going to engage and lead the world, actively using diplomacy,

development and defence to improve human welfare and freedom," said Shah. "Or we can

decide to retract, leaving many of the poorest people, many of the most fragile countries

without assistance and support, and leaving other global powers like China to continue to

make tremendous inroads and investments in places like Africa, and promote alternative

economic and political models.―

Reporter Index

Jeff Wilson - Bloomberg.com 43.7

Nicholas Larkin - Bloomberg.com 43.7

Rudy Ruitenberg - Bloomberg.com 40.0

Malkhadir M. Muhumed - The Associated Press 38.2

Karin Zeitvogel - Agence France Presse 37.9

Chanyaporn Chanjaroen - Bloomberg.com 37.9

Luzi Ann Javier - Bloomberg.com 37.6

John Heilprin - The Associated Press 35.1

Peter Hartcher - smh.com.au 35.1

Sandrine Rastello - Bloomberg.com 35.1

Nigel Hunt - Reuters.com 35.1

Brian Milner - CTV.ca 35.1

Damian Carrington - Guardian.co.uk 35.1

14© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Influencer on Reporters

Note: The Influencer to Reporter map links the participating influencers in the debate (represented by circles) to the reporters(represented by squares) who mentioned them. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions theinfluencer received, the colour shows the category into which they fall. The width of arrows line is indicative of the number ofarticles by the reporter that mention the influencer.

15© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Influencer on Reporters- Key Findings

Influencers & ReportersInfluencers (marked with orange circles) sit at the heart of this relationship between the

press and the debate and headed up by Robert Zoellick and Barack Obama, one politician

and one leader of a global institution

With the volatility of food prices taxing political minds there are several politicians amongst

the Top 10. These include Bolivian Finance Minister Luis Arce, and several others that all

own the agricultural or environmental ministry briefs in their respective governments.

Many well connected reporters are clustered in the central region of the map; Nicholas

Larkin, Sandrine Rastello, Luzi Ann Javier, Jeff Wilson, David P Goldman, Rudy

Ruitenberg, Kevin G Hall and others (marked with red circles).

These journalists form the hub (in most cases) of a large web of inter-connections with

influencers and comment – hence their prominence on this chart. Where a story is

syndicated ,and featured more often, the line is at its thickest, the work of Karin Zeitvogel,

Kevin G Hall & Ingi Salgado being the most obvious example on this chart. The map

points to links between journalists that are sourcing expert comment and the Industry

Association Representative they tend to ask on this topic (example Kevin G Hall).

Robert Zoellik‟s prominence stems directly from the influence that the World Bank Food

Price Index has on press comment. It also reflects the impact of the frequent World Bank‟s

„Food Price Watch „ reports. His influence on the topic is enormous: ―Global food prices are

rising to dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people around the world,”

said World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick. “The price hike is already pushing

millions of people into poverty, and putting stress on the most vulnerable, who spend more

than half of their income on food.‖ According to the February edition of Food Price Watch,

the World Bank‟s food price index rose by 15 percent between October 2010 and January

2011, is 29% above its level a year earlier, and is only 3% below its 2008 peak.

It would be fair to say that in a debate of this size it is hard for some organisations to reach

and influence the leading world figures that are driving this debate directly. However,

although their huge influence is undeniable, as this study shows, it is possible to talk to the

same journalists that cite them or to do so to the leading experts or market analysts that

advise them.

One of the advantages of INA mapping is that these connections become clearer. The map

suggests that a set of journalists have clustered around these key figures in the course of

reporting this study – of course many will be reporting based on a press release, others

though would have been briefed by spokespersons for this figure or may even have had

access directly. This means organisations and the communications teams can be using

mapping to find possible ways to talk to leading influencers directly or to discover channels

via which they can do so.

For instance movers and shakers in the Top Ten for the global commodities debate in

the first three months includes commodity market analysts: ―There’s no room for error

anymore on farms around the world,‖ said Dan Basse, the president of AgResouce Co.,

a commodity consultant in Chicago. ―With any weather issues, we’re going to make new

all-time highs in corn and soybeans, and to a lesser degree, wheat futures.‖ Drought

ruined wheat fields in Russia last year, and too much rain now has diminished supplies

of the grain from Canada. Similarly, adverse weather has led to a drop in 2010 corn

production in the U.S. and a smaller harvest of soybeans than expected, government

data show.

Food prices are going higher because there is competition for limited arable land to

boost supplies, said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman

Sachs Group Inc. in London. “Each time there were food price spikes in the last

decade, there would be rotation from one crop to the next, meaning you would go from

a bull market in one crop to the next crop each year,” Currie said. “What is different this

time is that there is less capability to rotate land because strong demand is exhausting

total arable land.”

Influencer Index

Robert Zoellick - President, World Bank 17.1

Barack Obama - President, U.S. 16.4

Han Changfu - Minister of Agriculture, China 15.7

Jeff Currie - Global Head of Commodities Research, Goldman Sachs

15.6

Dan Basse - President, AgResouce Co. 15.4

Farha Aslam - Analyst, Stephens Inc. 15.4

Luis Arce - Minister of Finance, Bolivia 15.3

Caroline Spelman - Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

15.0

Bruno Le Maire - Minister of Food, Agriculture and Fishing, France

14.6

Han Sung Min – Broker, Korea Exchange Bank Futures Co.

13.9

16© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Influencer on Publications

Note: The Influencer to Publication map links the participating influencers in the debate (represented by circles) to the publications(represented by squares) in which they received coverage. The size of a circle is indicative of the overall number of mentions theinfluencer received, the colour shows the category he falls into. The width of the line of the number of articles in which the publicationmentions the influencer.

17© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Influencer on Publications - Key Findings

Publication Index

Reuters.com 27.8

Bloomberg.com 26.4

BusinessWeek.com 22.9

Canada.com 21.8

Guardian.co.uk 21.6

NEWS.com.au 21.1

bbc.co.uk 20.9

theage.com.au 20.9

timeslive.co.za 20.9

Influencers & Publications

The list of most influential in terms of direct links with tracked Influencers includes

many that relate closely to their home or national market. However, the top four

figures stand out for the „international‟ nature of the message.

Chief Science Advisor to the UK Government Professor Sir John Beddington

presented, via his groundbreaking report based on the findings of some 400

scientists entitled: „Global Food and Farming Futures‟ late January the notion that

the world was facing a “Perfect Storm” and is at significant risk of facing multiple

interacting environmental and natural resource challenges by 2030.

The Perfect Storm scenario is based on the interaction and cross-amplification of

emerging food, water and energy shortages, which, on reaching a critical threshold,

could lead to public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration. His Minister,

Caroline Spelman was to the fore in the presentation of his findings, explaining the

prominence of both in the centrality table.

Nicolas Sarkozy, in his role as Chair of the G20, spent the early months of 2011

pushing a plan to regulate the international commodity markets – based in part on

the fears that advisers such as Beddington were suggesting. 'We want regulation of

primary commodity financial markets,' said Sarkozy, who holds the rotating 2011

presidency of the Group of 20. 'How can you explain that we regulate money

markets and not commodities? 'If we don't do anything we run the risk of food riots in

the poorest countries and a very unfavourable effect on global economic growth.

'The day there are food riots, what country at the G20 table will say this does not

concern them? I don't see a single one.”

As Minister of State for Agriculture in South Africa, Tina Joematt-Pettersson saw

floods hitting farmers in South Africa in the Northern Cape area, and she was

pushing to get biofuels higher on the political agenda – hence the presence of at

least one South African source in the Top Ten for this INA map.

Clive James‟s ISAAA delivered a progress report on the extent and spread of GM

crops worldwide – an instant hit with the media, that extensively reported on how

much land had been set to grow GMO crops since the subject matter came on the

scene.

There was a big set piece visit of the Chinese Premier to the US in January, which

placed these two world leaders (Obama and Wen Jiabao) in the chart – as

commodity prices & trade deals played a central role in their talks.

Influencer Index

Caroline Spelman - Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK

26.5

Robert Zoellick - President, World Bank 24.8

Nicolas Sarkozy - President, France 23.9

John Beddington - Chief Scientific Adviser, UK Government 23.2

Tina Joemat-Pettersson - Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, South Africa

22.0

Clive James - Chairman, ISAAA 21.7

Barack Obama - President, U.S. 21.2

Wen Jiabao - Premier, China 20.8

Bruno Le Maire - Minister of Food, Agriculture and Fishing, France

20.8

Dan Basse - President, AgResouce Co. 20.7

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INA MAP: Country links on Reporters

Note: The Country to Reporter map links the participating influencers in the debate (represented by circles) to the topics (represented by squares) with which they wereassociated in the coverage. The size of a circle is representative of the overall number of mentions the influencer received, the color shows the category into which it falls.The width of lines is indicative of the number of articles in which an influencer was associated with the topic.

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INA MAP: Country links on Reporters - Key Findings

Countries & Reporters

The Top Six countries in the Centrality Maps are all major „producer‟ countries: USA,

China, India, Australia, Brazil and Russia. Common to all are climate change impact

incidents, uncertainty over production levels, political worry over subsidies (ethanol in USA)

or concern over food security (Indian Parliament is shaping a food bill to this effect).

This period saw further growth in the Chinese-USA relationship with the Chinese PM, Hu

Jintao, visiting Washington in January, and trade deals being done on the back of this visit.

It also saw initial reports of the worst drought in China in 60 years, which is threatening the

nation‟s wheat crop and leading many to worry about the potential effect on already high

global food prices. With so many mouths to feed and urbanisation meaning less land is

producing, a jump in demand for staple crops from China or, even India for that matter,

would shatter the careful balance between food supply and demand. Hence the worry

reflected in the markets.

Next in the table came Europe, whose principal concern as a group, at the start of the

year, was fear of sharp rises in food prices could exacerbate Arab unrest, which was

spreading in the Middle East. Fear of environmentally inspired (lack of food) mass

migrations northwards into the European continent alarmed European leaders. This

accounted for Egypt and Tunisia‟s place in the Top Ten most discussed countries. Making

up the numbers at the top table were Argentina and Canada, both suffering from similar

issues to the top six: often climate driven and inevitably connected to failure or far lower

crop yields due to poor weather.

Given the trans-national nature of the issue of commodity prices, a lot of valuable comment

is wrapped up in stories on pricing movement, where expert traders offer views on the

causes of sharp market fluctuation. Therefore, top journalists (those featuring in the Top 10

centrality tables that wrote more copy on the issue or who had stronger specialism in this

area) reflected this in their stories. They were also mostly from the Newswire background –

providing communication specialists with a group of influential writers that they can easily

track or target in placing messaging of their own.

Top 4 journalists – example stories

Jeff Wilson – Russia, Canada, Argentina & China

• "There's no room for error anymore" on farms around the world, said Dan Basse,

the president of AgResouce. "With any weather issues, we're going to make new all-

time highs in corn and soybeans, and to a lesser degree, wheat futures.― (Seattle

Times: 12/01/11).

Luzi Ann Javier – Middle East, Singapore, Haiti, Europe, Egypt, Russia, Canada &

USA

• Global warming may help lift the prices of corn, wheat and rice by at least two-

thirds by 2050, a study by the International Food Policy Research Institute showed in

December. ―There is an increasing likelihood of a food crisis globally due to climate

change,‖ South Korean President Lee Myung Bak told his secretaries on Feb. 7,

according to a statement. (Bloomberg: 15/02/11).

Rudy Ruitenberg - Egypt, China, Russia

• ―Importers are paying 20 percent more for a metric ton of wheat on the Paris NYSE

Euronext bourse than on the Chicago Board of Trade because they need cargoes

now,‖ said Gautier Le Molgat, a consultant at Paris-based Agritel. (Business Week:

09/02/11).

Kevin G Hall – Asia & Middle East

• Ed Yardeni joked that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke should be added to a list of

revolutionaries, since his quantitative easing policy has provoked unrest and change

in the developing world."Since he first indicated his support for such a revolutionary

monetary change last August, the prices of corn, soybeans and wheat have risen

53%, 37% and 24.4%," he noted. "The price of crude oil rose 19.8% over this period

from $75.17 to $90.09. Soaring food and fuel prices are compounding anger

attributable to widespread unemployment in the countries currently experiencing

riots.‖ (Star Phoenix: 31/01/11).

• Other names featuring on the Top Ten most important journalists lists included:

John Heilprin (Associated Press); Megan Rowling (www.trust.org.com); Tony

Dreibus (www.bloomberg.com); Carry Gillam (www.reuters.com) and Edith

Lederer (www.ap.org). The work of this group of ten reflected the global nature of

the food price volatility issue that they were collectively covering, with some

specialising in aid related areas of the food shortage debate (Rowling) and others

being more conduits for commentary from the expert analyst community (Gillam).

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INA MAP: Country links on Publications

Note: The Country to Publication map links the participating reporters in the debate (represented by squares) tothe topics (represented by circles) which they mentioned in coverage. The size of a circle is representative of theoverall number of mentions the topic received. The width of lines is indicative of the number of articles in whicha topic was mentioned by the reporter.

21© 2011 COMMETRIC

INA MAP: Country links on Publications - Key Findings

Countries & Publications

Closer investigation of the stories underpinning the USA‟s position at the top of the

centrality table lists brings out the frequently cited issue of timing, though it is clear it is not

just a single issue such as quantitative easing, as some pundits argue. Although the policy

was announced in August 2010, the U.S Federal Bank didn't begin purchasing bonds until

November and commodity prices were rising before then. "There are a lot of different

sticks in the fire here," said Jerry Gidel, the president of Midland Research Inc. What

happens to the price of one food crop affects others, he added, because "it is a human-

consumption commodity, and things can get emotional, and they do get emotional. And

right now, we're kind of in one of those periods.“

Then there is China, not too far behind as a potential cause of market uncertainty –

according to the results of this study. According to the New York Times: ―China has been

essentially self-sufficient in grain for decades, for national security reasons. Any move by

China to import large quantities of food in response to the drought could drive international

prices even higher than the record levels recently reached”.

Other highlights of the period included the Indonesian President calling for urgent action

on food security measures such as controlling commodity price speculation at the G20 at

the end of January.

There were also some interesting country-focused special reports that reflected ties

between publications and countries – The Economist ran a „Special Report on Feeding the

World‟ – at the end of February. It strongly links into China, Mexico, India & Russia –

suggesting these were among its strongest areas of focus.

With this map showing a slightly second level degree of granularity, Newswires still figure

strongly, but there are other stand out national news sources: www.bbc.co.uk and

www.guardian.co.uk another. The more frequently cited set of national publications were

Australian – a country which had seen devastating floods in Queensland and droughts in

the west of the country. So noting the following: www.theage.com.au,

www.farmonline.com.au, www.dailytelegraph.com.au and www.ninemsn.com.au amongst

the Top ten most cited was no surprise.

Similarly, as a major grain and wheat producer seeing www.theglobeandmail.com from

Canada, www.businessweek.com and www.sfgate.com from the USA were very much in

line with expectations.

•,

Geography Index

USA 56.2

China 48.2

India 42.2

Egypt 41.2

Europe 40.7

Australia 40.7

Middle East 40.2

Russia 39.8

Brazil 39.3

Indonesia 39.3

Tunisia 39.3

Argentina 39.3

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APPENDICES

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Key Influencers Influential Organisations

Which type of individuals shape the debate• In terms of Influencer Roles Government Officials shaped the debate with 37% of the mentions.

•Other forms of decision-making groups make up 11% of the mentions. These include: Politicians (7%), Government Agency Representatives (3%) and EU Officials (1%)

• Experts/Academics have a strong 17% of all comment, outstripping Corporate or Market Analysts – that have 7% & 8% shares, respectively

• Notable is the low share that people belonging to Interest Groups have in this discussion with only 8% of all mentions

Which organisations shape the debate• Interest Groups (15%) as a „cohesive group‟ have more weight than they do as individuals in terms of potential influence in the commodity prices discussion. There are no

charismatic figureheads commanding media attention.

• Companies (25%) and International Organisations (26%) dominate, with more than half of all mentions.

• Just behind these two opinion forming groups sit Governments (10%) and Universities/Research Centres (9%)

• Market Analysis comment is small (3%) in relative terms, but punches above its weight in terms of Influencer roles (see chart on far left showing 8%)

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Which influencers or organisations drive this debate?

Which organisations influenced most?

• The agrochemical industry has a strong presence in the debate on food prices & food security, with its prominence in the table reasonably reflecting its position or strength in the

debate (find companies: 1st, 5th, 7th, 8th, 12th, 13th & 19th).

• However, four out of the top six places are held by institutions not companies (FAO, UN, USDA & AAAS). These bodies are driving the debate more than the food industry, leaning

heavily on science based reports & on public comments at meetings or press conferences.

• As science-based findings often originate from universities commissioned to carry this work out, this explains why there are also four Universities (in the shape of advisers or field

experts).

• Only one NGO – Friends of the Earth, who produced a report highlighting the cost of segregating GM crops around the world, made this list. In this report it argued that GM costs

would push food prices even higher.

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Top reporters Top publications