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WOULDBANNINGFIREARMSREDUCEMURDERANDSUICIDE?

AREVIEWOFINTERNATIONALANDSOMEDOMESTICEVIDENCE

DONB.KATES*ANDGARYMAUSER**

INTRODUCTION ............................................................650 I. VIOLENCE:THEDECISIVENESSOF

SOCIALFACTORS ...................................................660 II. ASKINGTHEWRONGQUESTION ..........................662 III.DOORDINARYPEOPLEMURDER?........................665IV.MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME?....................................670 V. GEOGRAPHIC,HISTORICALANDDEMOGRAPHIC

PATTERNS...............................................................673 A. DemographicPatterns ..................................676B. MacrohistoricalEvidence:Fromthe

MiddleAgestothe20thCentury .................678C. LaterandMoreSpecificMacroHistorical

Evidence..........................................................684 D. GeographicPatternswithinNations..........685

*DonB.Kates(LL.B.,Yale,1966)isanAmericancriminologistandconstitutionallawyerassociatedwiththePacificResearchInstitute,[email protected];3606662688;22608N.E.269thAve.,BattleGround,WA98604.**GaryMauser(Ph.D.,UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine,1970)isaCanadiancrimi

nologistanduniversityprofessoratSimonFraserUniversity,Burnaby,BCCanada.Hemaybe contacted atwww.garymauser.net,[email protected], and 6042913652.WegratefullyacknowledgethegenerouscontributionsofProfessorThomasB.Cole(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill,SocialMedicineandEpidemiology);Chief SuperintendentColinGreenwood (WestYorkshireConstabulary, ret.);C.B.Kates;AbigailKohn (UniversityofSydney,Law);DavidB.Kopel (IndependenceInstitute); Professor Timothy D. Lytton (Albany Law School); Professor WilliamAlex Pridemore (University of Oklahoma, Sociology); Professor Randolph Roth(Ohio StateUniversity,History);ProfessorThomasVelk (McGillUniversity,EconomicsandChairmanof theNorthAmericanStudiesProgram);ProfessorRobert

Weisberg(Stanford

Law

School);

and

John

Whitley

(University

of

Adelaide,

Eco

nomics).Anymeritsofthispaperreflecttheiradviceandcontributions;errorsareentirelyours.


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650 HarvardJournalofLaw&PublicPolicy [Vol.30

E. GeographicComparisons:EuropeanGunOwnershipandMurderRates..........687

F. GeographicComparisons:GunOwnershipandSuicideRates ...........................................690

CONCLUSION ................................................................693 INTRODUCTION

Internationalevidenceandcomparisonshavelongbeenofferedasproofofthemantrathatmoregunsmeanmoredeathsandthatfewerguns, therefore,mean fewerdeaths.1Unfortunately, suchdiscussionsarealltoooftenbeenafflictedbymisconceptionsandfactualerrorandfocusoncomparisonsthatareunrepresentative.Itmaybeuseful tobeginwitha fewexamples.There isacompoundassertionthat(a)gunsareuniquelyavailableintheUnited

Statescomparedwithothermoderndevelopednations,whichiswhy (b) theUnited States hasby far the highestmurder rate.Thoughtheseassertionshavebeenendlesslyrepeated,statement(b)is,infact,falseandstatement(a)issubstantiallyso.Sinceatleast1965,thefalseassertionthattheUnitedStateshas

theindustrializedworldshighestmurderratehasbeenanartifactofpoliticallymotivatedSovietminimizationdesignedtohidethetruehomiciderates.2Sincewellbeforethatdate,theSovietUnion

1.See, e.g.,JOHNGODWIN,MURDERUSA:THEWAYSWEKILLEACHOTHER281(1978) (Areaswith thehighestproportionof gunowners alsoboast thehighesthomicide ratios; those with the fewest gun owners have the lowest.); N. PETESHIELDS,GUNSDONTDIE,PEOPLEDO64(1981)(quotingandendorsinganEnglishacademics remark:Wecannothelpbutbelieve thatAmericaought toshare thebasicpremiseofourgun legislationthat the availabilityof firearmsbreedsviolence.);Janice Somerville,Gun Control as Immunization, AM. MED.NEWS,Jan. 3,1994,at9 (quotingpublichealthactivistKatherineChristoffel,M.D.:Gunsareavirusthatmustbeeradicated....Getridoftheguns,getridofthebullets,andyougetridofthedeaths.);DeaneCalhoun,FromControversytoPrevention:BuildingEffective Firearm Policies, INJ. PROTECTION NETWORK NEWSL., Winter 198990, at 17([G]unsarenotjustan inanimateobject[sic],but infactareasocial ill.);seealsoWENDYCUKIER&VICTORW.SIDEL,THEGLOBALGUNEPIDEMIC:FROMSATURDAYNIGHTSPECIALSTOAK47S(2006);SusanBaker,WithoutGuns,DoPeopleKillPeople?75AM.J.PUB.HEALTH587 (1985);PaulCotton,GunAssociatedViolenceIncreasinglyViewedasPublicHealthChallenge,267J.AM.MED.ASSN1171(1992);DianeSchetky,ChildrenandHandguns:APublicHealthConcern,139AM.J.DIS.CHILD.229,230(1985);Lois A. Fingerhut &Joel C. Kleinman, International and Interstate Comparisons ofHomicidesAmongYoungMales,263J.AM.MED.ASSN3292,3295(1990).

2.See

William

Alex

Pridemore,

Using

Newly

Available

Homicide

Data

to

Debunk

Two

MythsAboutViolenceinanInternationalContext:AResearchNote,5HOMICIDESTUD.267(2001).


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No.2] WouldBanningFirearmsReduceMurderandSuicide? 651

possessedextremelystringentguncontrols3thatwereeffectuatedbyapolicestateapparatusprovidingstringentenforcement.4Sosuccessfulwas that regime that fewRussianciviliansnowhavefirearmsandveryfewmurdersinvolvethem.5Yet,manifestsuc

cess inkeeping itspeopledisarmeddidnotprevent the SovietUnionfromhavingfarandawaythehighestmurderrate inthedevelopedworld.6Inthe1960sandearly1970s,thegunlessSovietUnionsmurderratesparalleledorgenerallyexceededthoseofgunriddenAmerica.WhileAmericanratesstabilizedandthensteeplydeclined,however,Russianmurder increased sodrastically thatby the early 1990s the Russian ratewas three timeshigherthanthatoftheUnitedStates.Between19982004(thelatestfigureavailableforRussia),RussianmurderrateswerenearlyfourtimeshigherthanAmericanrates.Similarmurderratesalsocharacterize theUkraine,Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,andvariousothernowindependentEuropeannationsoftheformerU.S.S.R.7

Thus,in

the

United

States

and

the

former

Soviet

Union

transition

ingintocurrentdayRussia,homicideresultssuggestthatwhere

3.See GEORGE NEWTON & FRANKLIN ZIMRING, FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE INAMERICANLIFE:ASTAFFREPORTSUBMITTEDTOTHENATIONALCOMMISSIONONTHECAUSESANDPREVENTIONOFVIOLENCE119&n.3(1970).

4.Russian law flatly prohibits civilian possession ofhandguns and limits longguns to licensedhunters. Id.Formoreon thestringencyofenforcement,seeRaymondKessler,GunControlandPoliticalPower,5LAW&POLYQ.381,389(1983),andRandy E. Barnett & Don B. Kates,Under Fire: TheNew Consensus on the SecondAmendment,45EMORYL.J.1139,1239(1996)(notinganunusualfurtherelementofSovietgunpolicy:theSovietArmyadopteduniquefirearmcaliberssothat,evenifitssoldierscouldnotbepreventedfromreturningwithforeigngunsouvenirsfrom

foreignwars,ammunitionforthemwouldbeunavailableintheSovietUnion).5.SeePridemore,supranote2,at271.6.Russianhomicidedatagiveninthisarticle(foryears196599)werekindlysup

pliedusbyProfessorPridemorefromhisresearchinRussianministrysources(onfilewithauthors).SeealsoinfraTable1(reportingRussianhomicidedatafor2002).7.ThehighestU.S.homiciderateeverreportedwas10.5per100,000in1980.See

JefferyA.Miron,Violence,Guns,andDrugs:ACrossCountryAnalysis,44J.L.&ECON.615,62425tbl.1(2001).Asof2001,theratewasbelow6.Id.ThelatestratesavailablefortheUkraine,Belarus,andotherformerSovietnationsinEuropecomefromthemid1990s,whenallwerewellabove10andmostwere50%to150%higher.Id.NotethattheU.S.ratesgivenaboveareratesreportedbytheFBI.Therearetwo

differentsourcesofU.S.murderrates.TheFBImurderdata isbasedonreports itobtainsfrompoliceagenciesthroughoutthenation.Thesedataaresignificantlylesscompletethanthealternative(usedinthisarticleunlessotherwiseexplicitlystated)ratesoftheU.S.PublicHealthService,whicharederivedfromdatacollectedfrom

medicalexaminers

offices

nationwide.

Though

the

latter

data

are

more

comprehen

sive,andthePublicHealthServicemurderrateisslightlyhigher,theyhavethedisadvantageofbeingslowertoappearthantheFBIhomicidedata.


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gunsarescarceotherweaponsaresubstitutedinkillings.8WhileAmericangunownershipisquitehigh,Table1showsmanyotherdeveloped nations (e.g., Norway, Finland, Germany, France,Denmark) with high rates of gun ownership. These countries,

however,havemurder ratesas lowor lower thanmanydevelopednationsinwhichgunownershipismuchrarer.Forexample,Luxembourg,wherehandgunsaretotallybannedandownershipof any kind of gun isminimal, had amurder rate nine timeshigherthanGermanyin2002.9

Table1:EuropeanGunOwnershipandMurderRates(ratesgivenareper100,000peopleandindescendingorder)

Notes:This

table

covers

all

the

Continental

European

nations

for

which

the twodatasetsgivenarebothavailable. Ineverycase,wehavegiventhehomicidedata for2003ortheclosestyeartheretobecausethat is theyearofthepublicationfromwhichthegunownershipdataaretaken.Gunownership data comes from GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONALSTUDIES,SMALLARMSSURVEY64tbl.2.2,65tbl.2.3(2003).

The homicide rate data comes from an annually published report,CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA,JURISTAT,fortheyears20012004.Eachyearsreportgiveshomicidestatistics for adozen or so foreignnations in a section labeled HomicideRatesforSelectedCountries.Thissectionofthereportsgivesnoexplana

8.GARYKLECK,TARGETINGGUNS:FIREARMSANDTHEIRCONTROL20(1997)(discussingpatternsrevealedbystudiesintheUnitedStates).

9.Our

assertions

as

to

the

legality

of

handguns

are

based

on

COMMN

ON

CRIME

PREVENTION & CRIM. JUSTICE, U.N. ECON. & SOC. COUNCIL, UNITED NATIONSINTERNATIONALSTUDYONFIREARMSREGULATION26,tbl.21(1997draft).

Nation MurderRate RateofGunOwnership

Russia 20.54[2002] 4,000

Luxembourg 9.01[2002] c.0

Hungary 2.22[2003] 2,000

Finland 1.98[2004] 39,000

Sweden 1.87[2001] 24,000

Poland 1.79[2003] 1,500

France 1.65[2003] 30,000

Denmark 1.21[2003] 19,000

Greece 1.12[2003] 11,000

Switzerland 0.99[2003] 16,000

Germany 0.93[2003] 30,000

Norway 0.81[2001] 36,000

Austria 0.80[2002] 17,000


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tionofwhyitselectsthevariousnationswhosehomicidestatisticsitcovers. Also without explanation, the nations covered differ from year toyear.Thus,for instance,murderstatistics forGermanyandHungaryaregiven inall fourof thepamphlets (2001,2002,2003,2004), forRussia inthreeyears(2001,2002,and2004),forFranceintwoyears(2001and2003),

andfor

Norway

and

Sweden

in

only

one

year

(2001).

Thesamepatternappearswhencomparisonsofviolence togunownershiparemadewithinnations.Indeed,dataonfirearms ownershipby constabulary area in England, like datafromtheUnitedStates,showanegativecorrelation,10thatis,wherefirearmsaremostdenseviolentcrimeratesarelowest,andwhereguns are leastdenseviolent crime rates arehighest.11Manydifferentdata sets fromvariouskindsof sourcesaresummarizedasfollowsbytheleadingtext:

[T]here is no consistent significant positive associationbetween gun ownership levels and violence rates: across (1)

time

within

the

United

States,

(2)

U.S.

cities,

(3)

counties

within Illinois, (4) countrysized areas like England, U.S.states, (5) regions of the United States, (6) nations, or (7)populationsubgroups....12

AsecondmisconceptionabouttherelationshipbetweenfirearmsandviolenceattributesEuropesgenerally lowhomicide

10.JOYCE LEE MALCOLM, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE ENGLISH EXPERIENCE 204(2002).11.HansToch&AlanJ.Lizotte,ResearchandPolicy:TheCaseforGunControl, in

PSYCHOLOGY& SOCIALPOLICY 223, 232 (Peter Suedfeld&PhilipE.Tetlock eds.,1992);seealsoid.at234&n.10([T]hefactthatnationalpatternsshowlittleviolentcrimewheregunsaremostdenseimpliesthatgunsdonotelicitaggressioninany

meaningfulway....Quitethecontrary,thesefindingssuggestthathighsaturationsofgunsinplaces,orsomethingcorrelatedwiththatcondition,inhibitillegalaggression.).Approaching thematter fromadifferentdirection, theearliestdata (nineteenth

centuryon)revealsthattheAmericanjurisdictionswiththemoststringentguncontrolsare ingeneral theoneswiththehighestmurderrates.Conversely,Americanstateswithhomicideratesas lowasWesternEuropeshavehighgunownership,andimposenocontrolsdesignedtodenygunsto lawabiding,responsibleadults.Manypossible reasonsmaybeoffered for these two facts,butnonesuggests thatguncontrolreducesmurder.Forexaminationofawidevarietyofstudiesfindinglittleevidenceinsupportof

theefficacyofgun controls in reducingviolence, seeJAMESB.JACOBS,CANGUNCONTROLWORK?11120(2002);KLECK,supranote8,at35177;JOHNR.LOTT,JR.,MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME:UNDERSTANDING CRIMEANDGUNCONTROLLAWS1920(1998);JAMESD.WRIGHTETAL.,UNDERTHEGUN:WEAPONS,CRIMEANDVIOLENCE

IN

AMERICA

30708(1983);

MatthewR.

DeZee,

Gun

Control

Legislation:

Impact

and

Ideology,5LAW&POLYQ.367,36971(1983).12.KLECK,supranote8,at2223.


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ratestostringentguncontrol.Thatattributioncannotbeaccurate sincemurder inEuropewasatanalltime low before theguncontrolswereintroduced.13Forinstance,virtuallytheonlyEnglishguncontrolduringthenineteenthandearlytwentieth

centurieswas thepractice thatpolicepatrolledwithoutguns.DuringthisperiodguncontrolprevailedfarlessinEnglandorEurope than in certain American states which neverthelesshadand continue tohavemurder rates thatwere and arecomparativelyveryhigh.14Inthisconnection,tworecentstudiesarepertinent.In2004,

theU.S.NationalAcademyofSciencesreleased itsevaluationfromareviewof253journalarticles,99books,43governmentpublications,andsomeoriginalempiricalresearch. Itfailed toidentify anygun control thathad reducedviolent crime, suicide,orgun accidents.15The same conclusionwas reached in2003bytheU.S.CentersforDiseaseControlsreviewofthen

extantstudies.16

Stringent gun controls were not adopted in England andWesternEuropeuntil afterWorldWar I.Consistentwith theoutcomesoftherecentAmericanstudiesjustmentioned,thesestrictcontrolsdidnotstem thegeneral trendofevergrowingviolent crime throughout thepostWWII industrializedworldincluding theUnited States and Russia. ProfessorMalcolmsstudyofEnglishgun law andviolent crime summarizes that

13.Barnett&Kates,supranote4,at13842.14.Intheperiodbetween1900and1935,Arkansas,Hawaii,Michigan,Missouri,

NewJersey,NewYork,NorthCarolina,Oregon,andSouthCarolinaadoptedlawsvariouslyrequiringa license toownorbuyahandgunorbanninghandgunpurchasealtogether,andSaturdayNightSpecialtypebansexistedinTennessee,Arkansas, and various other Southern states.Don B.Kates,Jr., Toward aHistory ofHandgunProhibition in theUnitedStates, inRESTRICTINGHANDGUNS:THELIBERALSKEPTICSSPEAKOUT7,1415(DonB.Kates,Jr.ed.,1979).

15.CHARLES F. WELLFORD ET AL., NATL RESEARCH COUNCIL, FIREARMS ANDVIOLENCE:ACRITICALREVIEW610(2004).It isperhapsnotamisstonotethatthereviewpanel,whichwassetupduringtheClintonAdministration,wascomposedalmostentirelyofscholarswho,totheextenttheirviewswerepubliclyknownbeforetheirappointments,favoredguncontrol.16.TaskForceonCommunityPreventitiveServs.,Ctrs.forDiseaseControl,First

ReportsEvaluatingtheEffectivenessofStrategiesforPreventingViolence:FirearmsLaws,52MORTALITY&MORBIDITYWKLY.REP.(RR14RECOMMENDATIONS &REP.)11,16(2003), available at http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm.

TheCDC

is

vehemently

anti

gun

and

interpreted

its

results

to

show

not

that

the

moregunsequalmoredeathmantraiserroneous,butonlythatthescoresofstudiesitreviewedwereinconclusivelydone.


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nations nineteenth and twentieth century experience as follows:

ThepeacefulnessEnglandusedtoenjoywasnottheresultofstrictgun laws.When ithadno firearms restrictions [nine

teenthandearly twentieth century]Englandhad littleviolent crime,while thepresent extraordinarily stringent guncontrolshavenot stopped the increase inviolenceor eventheincreaseinarmedviolence.17

Armed crime,neveraproblem inEngland,hasnowbecomeone.HandgunsarebannedbuttheKingdomhasmillionsof illegal firearms.Criminalshaveno trouble findingthemandexhibitanewwillingnesstousethem.Inthedecadeafter1957, theuseofguns inseriouscrime increasedahundredfold.18

Inthelate1990s,Englandmovedfromstringentcontrolstoacompleteban of allhandguns andmany types of longguns.

Hundredsof

thousands

of

guns

were

confiscated

from

those

owners lawabiding enough to turn them in to authorities.Withoutsuggestingthiscausedviolence,thebans ineffectivenesswas such thatby theyear2000violent crimehad so increased thatEnglandandWaleshadEuropeshighestviolentcrimerate,farsurpassingeventheUnitedStates.19Today,English news media headline violence in terms redolent of thedoleful,melodramatic language that for so longcharacterizedAmerican news reports.20One aspect of Englands recent ex

17.MALCOLM,supranote10,at219.18.Id.at209.

19.SeeEstherBoutenetal.,CriminalVictimizationinSeventeenIndustrializedCountries, inCRIME VICTIMIZATION IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE: RESULTS FROM THEINTERNATIONALCRIMEVICTIMSSURVEY,19892000at13,1516(PaulNieuwbeertaed.,2002).Thesurveysinvolvedwereconductedundertheauspicesofthegovernmentsofeachnationand thegeneralsupervisionof theUniversityofLeidenandtheDutchMinistryofJustice.20.See, e.g., Gun Crime Growing Like Cancer, BBC NEWS, May 21, 2003,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/England/3043701.stm;DavidBamber,GunCrimeTreblesasWeaponsandDrugsFloodBritishCities,TELEGRAPHONLINE(London),Feb.27,2002,http://www.telegraoh.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/02/24/nguns24.xml; JasonBennetto,FirearmsAmnestytoTackleSurgeinGunCrime,INDEPENDENT(London),Dec.27,2002,at1; IanBurrell,PoliceMovetoTackleHugeRise inGunCrime,INDEPENDENT(London),Jan.15,2001,at3;DanielFoggo&CarlFellstrom,WeAreReelingwiththeMurders,WeAreinaCrisiswithMajorCrime,SUNDAYTELEGRAPH(London),Mar.13,2005,at4;JohannHari,TheBritishBecomeTriggerHappy,NEW

STATESMAN(London),

Nov.

5,

2001,

at

35;

Philip

Johnston,

Gun

Crime

Rises

Despite

DunblanePistolBan,DAILYTELEGRAPH(London),Jul.17,2001,at05;DavidLeppard&RachelDobson,MurderRateSoars toHighestforaCentury,SUNDAYTIMES (Lon


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periencedeservesnote,givenhowoftenand favorablyadvocateshavecomparedEnglishgunpolicytoitsAmericancounterpartover thepast35years.21Agenerallyunstated issue inthisnotoriouslyemotionaldebatewastheeffectoftheWarren

CourtandlaterrestrictionsonpolicepowersonAmericangunpolicy.Criticsof thesedecisionspointed to soaringAmericancrime rates and argued simplistically that such decisionscaused,orat leasthampered,police insuppressingcrime.Butto somesupportersof thesejudicialdecisions, theexampleofEnglandarguedthatthesolutiontocrimewastorestrictguns,notcivilliberties.Toguncontroladvocates,England,thecradleof our liberties,was anationmade sopeacefulby strictguncontrol that its police did not even need to carry guns. TheUnited States, it was argued, could attain such a desirablesituationby radically reducinggunownership,preferablybybanningandconfiscatinghandguns.

Theresults

discussed

earlier

contradict

those

expectations.

On

theonehand,despiteconstantandsubstantially increasinggunownership, theUnitedStates sawprogressive anddramatic reductionsincriminalviolenceinthe1990s.Ontheotherhand,thesame time period in the United Kingdom saw a constant anddramatic increase inviolent crime towhichEnglands responsewasevermoredrasticguncontrolincluding,eventually,banningand confiscating all handguns andmany types of long guns.22Nevertheless, criminal violence rampantly increased so thatby2000Englandsurpassed theUnitedStates tobecomeoneof thedevelopedworldsmostviolenceriddennations.

don),Oct.13,2002,at1;AdamMitchell,GunKillingsDoubleasPoliceClaimProgress,DAILYTELEGRAPH(London),Aug.17,2001,at13;JohnSteele,PoliceFearaNewCrimeWaveasSchoolAgeMuggersGraduate toGuns,DAILYTELEGRAPH (London),Jan.3,2002,at04;JonUngoedThomas,KillingsRiseas3mIllegalGunsFloodBritain,SUNDAYTIMES(London),Jan.16,2000;PeterWoolrich,BritainsToughGunControlLawsTermedTotalFailure:LandofHopeandGunrunning,PUNCHMAG.,May3,2000.21.See,e.g.,CARLBAKAL,THERIGHTTOBEARARMS1011,31,279(1966);RAMSEY

CLARK,CRIME INAMERICA10405,109 (1970);AMITAIETZIONI&RICHARDREMP,TECHNOLOGICALSHORTCUTSTOSOCIALCHANGE136 (1973);NatlCoalitiontoBanHandguns,AShootingGalleryCalledAmerica(undated,unpaginatedpamphlet);SHIELDS, supranote1,at6364; IrwinBloch,GunControlWouldReduceCrime, reprintedinWouldGunControlReduceCrime197(DavidBendered.,1989);RobertS.Drinan,BanningHandgunsWouldReduceCrime, reprinted inGUNS&CRIME 4546

(TararaRoleff

ed.,

1999).

22.MALCOLM,supranote10,at164216.Weshouldclarify that the twin trendstowardmoreviolentcrimeandmoreguncontrolbeganlongbeforethe1990s.Seeid.


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To conserve the resourcesof the inundated criminaljusticesystem,Englishpolicenolongerinvestigateburglaryandminorassaults.23Asof2006,ifthepolicecatchamugger,robber,orburglar,orotherminorcriminalintheact,thepolicyisto

releasethemwithawarningratherthantoarrestandprosecutethem.24 Itused tobe thatEnglishpolicevehementlyopposedthe ideaofarmedpolicing.Today,evermorepolicearebeingarmed. Justifying the assignment of armed squads to blockroadsandcarryoutrandomcarsearches,apolicecommanderasserts:Itisamassivedeterrenttogunmeniftheythinkthattherearegoingtobearmedpolice.25Howfaristhatfromtherationaleonwhich40Americanstateshaveenacted lawsgivingqualified,trainedcitizenstherighttocarryconcealedguns?Indeed,newsmediaeditorialshaveappearedinEnglandarguingthatciviliansshouldbeallowedgunsfordefense.26Thereiscurrently a vigorous controversy over proposals (which the

Blairgovernment

first

endorsed

but

now

opposes)

to

amend

the lawofselfdefensetoprotectvictimsfromprosecutionforusingdeadlyforceagainstburglars.27The divergencebetween the United States and the British

Commonwealth became especially pronounced during the

23.Daniel Foggo,Dont BotherAbout Burglary, Police Told, SUNDAY TELEGRAPH(LONDON),Jan.12,2003,at1(Policehavebeenorderednottobotherinvestigatingcrimes such asburglary, vandalism and assaultsunless evidencepointing to theculpritsiseasilyavailable,TheSundayTelegraphcanreveal.Undernewguidelines,officershavebeeninformedthatonly serious crimes,suchasmurder,rapeorsocalledhatecrimes,shouldbe investigatedasamatterofcourse.Inallothercases,unless there is immediateand compellingevidence, suchas fingerprintsorDNA

material,thecrimewillbelistedfornofurtheraction.).24.SteveDoughty,LetBurglarsOffWithCautionPoliceTold,DAILYMAIL(London),

Apr.3,2006,at4.25.Matthew Beard,Armed Police toMan Checkpoints in London asDrugRelated

CrimeSoars,INDEPENDENT(London),Sept.7,2002,at2.26SeeSimonHeffer, If theStateFailsUs,WeMustDefendOurselves,TELEGRAPH

ONLINE(London),Feb.24,2002,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/ opinion/2002/02/24/do2401.xml; see also IanBell,DublaneMadeUsAllThinkAboutGunControl...SoWhatWentWrong?, SUNDAYHERALD (Scotland),Feb. 24, 2007,http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.1217778.0.dunblane_made_us_all_think_about_gun_control_so_what_went_wrong.php;Comment,TheNightMyDaughterWasStabbedAndMyLiberal InstinctsDied,DAILYMAIL (London),Mar. 5, 2007, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/femail/article.html?in_ar ticle_id=440318&in_page_id=1766&ito=1490.27.SeeMelissaKite,ToriesLaunchBill toGiveHouseholders thePower toTackle In

truders,SUNDAY

TELEGRAPH

(London),

Dec.

26,

2004,

at

4;

see

also

Renee

Lerner,

The

WorldwidePopularRevoltAgainstProportionality inSelfDefenseLaw,2J.L.ECON.&POLY(2007).


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1980sand1990s.Duringthese twodecades,whileBritainandthe Commonwealth were making lawful firearm ownershipincreasinglydifficult,more than25states in theUnitedStatespassed laws allowing responsible citizens to carry concealed

handguns.Therearenow40stateswherequalifiedcitizenscanobtainsuchahandgunpermit.28Asaresult,thenumberofU.S.citizens allowed to carry concealed handguns in shoppingmalls,onthestreet,and intheircarshasgrownto3.5millionmenandwomen.29EconomistsJohnLottandDavidMustardhavesuggestedthatthesenewlawscontributedtothedropinhomicideandviolentcrime rates.Basedon25yearsofcorrelatedstatisticsfromallofthemorethan3,000Americancounties,LottandMustardconcludethatadoptionofthesestatuteshas deterred criminals from confrontation crime and causedmurder andviolent crime to fall faster in states that adoptedthispolicythaninstatesthatdidnot.30

28.InMarch2006,KansasandNebraskabecamethe39thand40thstates,respectively,topassshallissueconcealedcarrylegislation.InKansas,thestate legislaturevotedtooverturnthegovernorsvetoofthebipartisanlegislation.KansasHouseOverridesConcealedGunsBillVeto,DESERETMORNINGNEWS,Mar.24,2006. InNebraska, the governor signed the bill as passed by the state legislature. KevinOHanlon,ConcealedWeaponsBillAdopted,LINCOLNJOURNALSTAR,Mar.31,2006.

29.DonKates,TheLimitedImportanceofGunControlfromaCriminologicalPerspective,inSUINGTHEGUNINDUSTRY:ABATTLEATTHECROSSROADSOFGUNCONTROLANDMASSTORTS62,64(TimothyD.Lyttoned.,2005).30.SeeJohnR.LottJr.&DavidB.Mustard,Crime,Deterrence,andRighttoCarry

ConcealedHandguns,26J.LEGALSTUD.1,1(1997);seealsoJOHNR.LOTT,JR.,MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME19(2d.ed.2000).Thisconclusionisvehementlyrejectedbyantigunadvocatesandacademicswhoopposearmedselfdefense.See,e.g.,AlbertW.Alschuler,TwoGuns,FourGuns,SixGuns,MoreGuns:DoesArmingthePublicReduceCrime?,31VAL.U.L.REV.365,366(1997);IanAyres&JohnJ.DonohueIII,ShootingDowntheMoreGuns,LessCrimeHypothesis,55STAN.L.REV.1193,1197(2003);DanA.Black&DanielS.Nagin,DoRighttoCarryLawsDeterViolentCrime?,27J.LEGALSTUD.209,209 (1998);FranklinZimring&GordonHawkins,ConcealedHandguns:The CounterfeitDeterrent,RESPONSIVE COMMUNITY, Spring 1997, at 46;DanielW.Webster,TheClaimsThatRighttoCarryLawsReduceViolentCrimeAreUnsubstantiated(JohnsHopkinsCenterforGunPolicyandResearch,1997).SeveralcriticshavenowreplicatedLottsworkusingadditionalordifferentdata,

additional control variables, or new or different statistical techniques theydeemsuperiortothoseLottused.Interestingly,thereplicationsallconfirmLottsgeneralconclusions;someevenfindthatLottunderestimatedthecrimereductiveeffectsofallowinggoodcitizenstocarryconcealedguns.SeeJeffreyA.Miron,Violence,Guns,andDrugs:ACrossCountryAnalysis,44J.L.&ECON.615(2001);DavidB.Mustard,TheImpactofGunLawsonPoliceDeaths,44J.L.&ECON.635(2001);JohnR.Lott,Jr.&JohnE.Whitley,SafeStorageGunLaws:AccidentalDeaths,Suicides,andCrime,44J.L.

&ECON.

659

(2001);

Thomas

B.

Marvell,

The

Impact

of

Banning

Juvenile

Gun

Posses

sion,44J.L.&ECON.691(2001);JeffreyS.Parker,Guns,Crime,andAcademics:SomeReflectionsontheGunControlDebate,44J.L.&ECON.715(2001);BruceL.Benson&


11/46


Asindicatedintheprecedingfootnote,thenotionthatmoreguns reduce crime is highly controversial. What the controversyhasobscuredfromviewisthecorrosiveeffectoftheLottand Mustard work on the tenet that more guns equal more

murder.Aspreviously stated, adoption of state lawspermittingmillionsofqualifiedcitizenstocarrygunshasnotresultedinmoremurderorviolentcrimeinthesestates.Rather,adoptionofthesestatuteshasbeenfollowedbyverysignificantreductionsinmurderandviolenceinthesestates.To determine whether this expansion of gun availability

caused reductions inviolent crime requires takingaccountofvarious other factors thatmight alsohave contributed to thedecline.For instance,twoofLottsmajorcritics,DonohueandLevitt,attributemuchofthedropinviolentcrimethatstartedin1990stothelegalizationofabortioninthe1970s,whichtheyargue resulted in the nonbirth of vast numbers of children

whowould

have

been

disproportionately

involved

in

violent

crimehadtheyexistedinthe1990s.31The LottMustard studies did not address the Donohue

Levittthesis.LottandMustarddidaccount,however,fortwopeculiarlyAmericanphenomenawhichmanypeoplebelievedmayhavebeen responsible for the1990scrime reduction: thedramatic increase of theUnitedStatesprisonpopulation andthenumberofexecutions.TheprisonpopulationintheUnitedStates tripledduring this timeperiod,jumping fromapproximately100prisonersper100,000inthelate1970stomorethan300per100,000people in thegeneralpopulation in the early1990s.32 In addition, executions in the United States soared

Brent D. Mast, Privately Produced GeneralDeterrence, 44J.L. & ECON. 725 (2001);DavidE.Olson&MichaelD.Maltz,RighttoCarryConcealedWeaponLawsandHomicideinLargeU.S.Counties:TheEffectonWeaponTypes,VictimCharacteristics,andVictimOffender Relationships, 44 J.L. & ECON. 747 (2001); Florenz Plassmann & T.Nicolaus Tideman, Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter CountableCrimes?OnlyaCountAnalysisCanSay,44J.L.&ECON.771(2001);CarlisleE.Moody,TestingfortheEffectsofConcealedWeaponsLaws:SpecificationErrorsandRobustness,44J.L.&ECON.799(2001);seealsoFlorenzPlassman&JohnWhitley,ConfirmingMoreGuns,LessCrime,55STAN.L.REV.1313,1316 (2003). In2003,Lott reiteratedandextendedhisfindings,whichweresubsequentlyendorsedbythreeNobellaureates.SeeJOHNR.LOTT,JR.,THEBIASAGAINSTGUNS(2003).

31.SeeJohnJ.DonohueIII&StevenD.Levitt,TheImpactofLegalizedAbortiononCrime,116Q.J.ECON.379(2001).32.SeeBureauofJusticeStatistics,KeyFactsataGlance:IncarcerationRate,1980

2004(Oct.

23,

2005),

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrttab.htm,

citing

ALLEN BECK & PAIGE HARRISON, BUREAU OFJUSTICE STATISTICS,CORRECTIONALPOPULATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES 1997 (2000), available at


12/46


fromapproximately5peryearintheearly1980stomorethan27peryear in theearly1990s.33Neitherof these trends is reflectedinCommonwealthcountries.Althoughthereasonisthusobscured,theundeniableresult

is that violent crime, and homicide in particular, has plummeted intheUnitedStatesoverthepast15years.34Thefall intheAmerican crime rate is evenmore impressivewhen comparedwiththerestoftheworld.In18ofthe25countriessurveyed by the British Home Office, violent crime increasedduring the 1990s.35 This contrast should induce thoughtfulpeople to wonder what happened in those nations, and toquestionpoliciesbasedonthenotionthatintroducingincreasinglymorerestrictive firearmownership lawsreducesviolentcrime.Perhaps theUnited States isdoing something right inpromotingfirearmsforlawabidingresponsibleadults.Orperhaps theUnited States success in lowering its violent crime

raterelates

to

increasing

its

prison

population

or

its

death

sen

tences.36Furtherresearchisrequiredtoidentifymorepreciselywhich elements of theUnited States approach are themostimportant,orwhetherallthreeelementsactinginconcertwerenecessarytoreduceviolentcrimes.

I. VIOLENCE:THEDECISIVENESSOFSOCIALFACTORSOnereasontheextentofgunownershipinasocietydoesnot

spur themurder rate is thatmurderersarenotspreadevenlythroughout the population. Analysis of perpetrator studiesshows that violent criminalsespecially murderersalmost

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cpus97.pdf, and ALLEN BECK & PAIGEHARRISON, BUREAU OFJUSTICE STATISTICS, PRISONERS IN 2004 (2005), available athttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/p04.pdf.).33.THOMAS BONCZAR & TRACY L. SNELL, BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS

BULLETIN,CAPITALPUNISHMENT2003,(2004),availableathttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cp03.pdf.

34.See generally FBI, VIOLENT CRIME, http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/offenses/violent_crime/index.html;FBI,CRIMEINTHEUNITEDSTATESBYVOLUMEANDRATEPER100,000INHABITANTS,19862005,http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_01.html. 35.SeeGordonBarclayetal.,InternationalComparisonsofCriminalJusticeStatistics

1999,HOMEOFFICESTAT.BULL.(ResearchDevelopmentandStatistics,U.K.HomeOffice, London, U.K.), 2001, available at http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/hosb601.pdf.36.Severalrecentstudiesbyeconomistscalculate thateachexecutiondeters the

commissionof

19

murders.

See

Cass

R.

Sunstein

&

Adrian

Vermuele,

Is

Capital

Pun

ishmentMorallyRequired?Acts,Omissions,andLifeLifeTradeoffs,58STAN.L.REV.703(2005).


13/46


uniformlyhavealonghistoryofinvolvementincriminalbehavior.37 So it would not appreciably raise violence if all lawabiding,responsiblepeoplehadfirearmsbecausetheyarenottheoneswhorape,rob,ormurder.38Bythesametoken,violent

crimewouldnotfallifgunsweretotallybannedtocivilians.Asthe respectiveexamplesofLuxembourgandRussia suggest,39individualswho commit violent crimeswill either find gunsdespiteseverecontrolsorwillfindotherweaponstouse.40Startlingastheforegoingmayseem, itrepresents thecross

nationalnorm,notsomebizarredeparturefromit.Ifthemantra more guns equalmoredeath and fewerguns equal lessdeath were true, broad based crossnational comparisonsshouldshowthatnationswithhighergunownershippercapita consistently have more death. Nations with higher gunownershiprates,however,donothavehighermurderorsuicideratesthanthosewithlowergunownership.Indeedmany

highgun

ownership

nations

have

much

lower

murder

rates.

Consider, for example, the wide divergence in murder ratesamong Continental European nations with widely divergentgunownershiprates.The noncorrelationbetween gun ownership andmurder

is reinforcedby examination of statistics from larger numbersofnations across thedevelopedworld.Comparisonofhomicide and suicidemortality data for thirtysix nations(including the United States) for the period 19901995 togun ownership levels showed no significant (at the 5%level)associationbetweengunownership levelsand the totalhomiciderate.41Consistentwiththis isa laterEuropean

studyof

data

from

21

nations

in

which

no

significant

corre

lations[ofgunownershiplevels]withtotalsuicideorhomiciderateswerefound.42

37.SeeDelbertS.Elliott,LifeThreateningViolence isPrimarilyaCrimeProblem:AFocusonPrevention,69COLO.L.REV.1081,1089(1998)(emphasisadded).38.SeeinfraPartIII.39.Seesupranotes39andTable1.40.SeesupraTable1andinfraTables23.

41.KLECK, supranote 8, at 254.The study also foundno correlation to suiciderates.Id.42.MartinKilliasetal.,Guns,ViolentCrime,andSuicidein21Countries,43CAN.J.

CRIMINOLOGY&

CRIM.

JUST.

429,

430

(2001).

It

bears

emphasis

that

the

authors,

who

aredeeplyantigun,emphasizetheverystrongcorrelationsbetweenthepresenceofgunsinthehomeandsuicidecommittedwithagunasifthereweresomeimport


14/46


II. ASKINGTHEWRONGQUESTIONHowever unintentionally, the irrelevance of focusing on

weaponry ishighlightedby the mostcommon theme in the

moreguns

equal

more

death

argument.

Epitomizing

this

themeisaWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)reportasserting, The easy availability of firearms hasbeen associatedwithhigherfirearmmortalityrates.43Theauthors, innotingthatthepresenceofaguninahomecorrespondstoahigherrisk of suicide, apparently assume that if denied firearms,potential suicideswilldecide to live rather than turning tothenumerousalternativesuicidemechanisms.Theevidence,however, indicates that denying one particular means topeoplewhoaremotivated tocommitsuicidebysocial,economic,cultural,orothercircumstances simplypushes themtosomeothermeans.44Thus,itisnotjustthemurderratein

gunless

Russia

that

is

four

times

higher

than

the

American

rate;theRussiansuiciderateisalsoaboutfourtimeshigherthantheAmericanrate.45

tothedeathbeingbygunratherthanbyhanging,poison,orsomeothermeans.Id.;seealsoinfraPartIII.

43.WORLDHEALTHORGANIZATION,SMALLARMSANDGLOBALHEALTH11(2001)(emphasisadded).This irrelevancy isendlessly repeated.See, e.g.,WendyCukier,SmallArmsandLightWeapons:APublicHealthApproach,9BROWNJ.WORLDAFF.261,266,267(2002)(Researchhasshownthatratesofsmallarmsdeathand injuryarelinked to small arms accessibility....In industrialized countries, studies haveshownthataccessibilityisrelatedtofirearmdeathrates....Otherapproacheshaveexamined theratesofdeathfromfirearmsacrossregions,cities,high incomecountries, and respondents tovictimization surveys. (emphasis added) (internal cita

tionsomitted);seealsoNeilArya,Confronting theSmallArmsPandemic324BRITISHMED.J.990(2002);E.G.Krugetal.,FirearmRelatedDeathsintheUnitedStatesand35OtherHighandUpperMiddleIncomeCountries,27INTLJ.EPIDEMIOLOGY214(1988).44.SeeJACOBS, supranote11,at120 ([I]f theBradyLawdidhave theeffectof

modestlyreducing firearmssuicides...thiseffectwascompletelyoffsetbyan increaseofthesamemagnitudeinnonfirearmsuicideresultinginthesamenumberofdeaths);seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at26592(summarizingandreviewingstudiesregardinggunsandsuicide).Indeed,thoughwithoutnotingthesignificance,theWHOreportstatesthatoutofsampleof52countries,firearmsaccountedforonlyonefifthofallsuicides,justaheadofpoisoning....[Self]strangulation,[i.e.hanging] was the most frequently used method of suicide. WORLD HEALTHORGANIZATION,supranote43,at3.45.In1999,thelatestyearforwhichwehaveRussiandata,theAmericansuicide

ratewas10.7per100,000people,whiletheRussiansuicideratewasalmost41per100,000people.WilliamAlexPridemore&AndrewL. Spivak,Patterns ofSuicide

Mortalityin

Russia,

33

SUICIDE

&

LIFE

THREATENING

BEHAVIOR

132,

133

(2003);

DonnaL.Hoyertetal.,Deaths:FinalDatafor1999,NATLVITALSTAT.REP.,Sept.21,2001,at6.


15/46


There isno socialbenefit indecreasing theavailabilityofgunsiftheresultisonlytoincreasetheuseofothermeansofsuicide and murder, resulting in more or less the sameamountofdeath.Elementaryas thispoint is,proponents of

themoregunsequalmoredeathmantraseemoblivioustoit.OnestudyassertsthatAmericansaremore likelytobeshottodeath thanpeople in theworlds other 35wealthier nations.46 While this is literally true, it is irrelevantexcept, perhapstopeopleterrifiednotofdeathpersebutjust deathby gunshot. A fact that shouldbe of greater concernbutwhich thestudy fails tomentionis thatpercapitamurderoverallisonlyhalfasfrequentintheUnitedStatesasinseveralothernationswheregunmurderisrarer,butmurderbystrangling,stabbing,orbeatingismuchmorefrequent.47Ofcourse, itmaybespeculated thatmurderratesaround

theworldwouldbehigher ifgunsweremoreavailable.But

thereis

simply

no

evidence

to

support

this.

Like

any

specu

lation, it isnotsubject toconclusivedisproof;but theEuropeandatainTable1andthestudiesacross36and21nationsalreadydiscussed show no correlation of high gun ownership nations and greater murder per capita or lower gunownershipnationsandlessmurderpercapita.48To reiterate, the determinants ofmurder and suicide are

basic social, economic, and cultural factors, not the prevalenceofsomeformofdeadlymechanism.Inthisconnection,recallthattheAmericanjurisdictionswhichhavethe highestviolent crime rates areprecisely thosewith themost stringent gun controls.49 This correlation does not necessarily

46.SeeKrugetal.,supranote42,at21819.47.Id.at216.Twoofthosenations,BrazilandEstonia,hadmorethantwicethe

overallmurder rates of theUnited States.DavidC. Stolinsky,America:TheMostViolentNation?,5MED.SENTINEL199,200(2000).ReadersmayquestionthevalueofcomparingtheUnitedStatestothoseparticularnations;however,thiscomparisonwasfirstsuggestedbyKrug.Krugetal.,supranote43,at215(usingthirtysixcountries,havingamongthehighestGNPpercapitaaslistedintheWorldBanks1994WorldDevelopmentReport).Allwehavedoneisprovidefullmurderrateinformationforthesecomparisons.48.KLECK,supranote8,at254;Killiasetal.,supranote41,at430.49.Seeinfranotes12830andaccompanyingtext.Foratleastthirtyyears,gunad

vocateshave echoed inmore or less identical terms the observation that twentypercentofAmericanhomicide isconcentrated infourcitieswiththenationsmost

restrictivegun

laws.

See

Firearms

Legislation:

Hearing

Before

the

Subcomm.

on

Crime

of

theH.Comm.on theJudiciary,94thCong.2394 (1975) (statementofNealKnox). InOctober 2000, the head of a gun advocacy group ridiculed a Handgun Control


16/46


prove gun advocates assertion that gun controls actuallyencourage crimebydeprivingvictimsof themeansof selfdefense.Theexplanationofthiscorrelationmaybepoliticalratherthancriminological:jurisdictionsafflictedwithviolent

crime tend to severely restrict gun ownership. This, however,doesnot suppress thecrime, forbanninggunscannotalleviatethesocioculturalandeconomicfactorsthataretherealdeterminants ofviolenceandcrimerates.50

Table2:MurderRatesofEuropeanNationsthatBanHandgunsasComparedtoTheirNeighborsthatAllowHandguns

(ratesareper100,000persons)

Nation HandgunPolicy MurderRate Year

A.Belarus banned 10.40 late1990s[Neighboringcountrieswithgunlawandmurderratedataavailable]

Poland

allowed

1.98

2003

Russia banned 20.54 2002

B.Luxembourg banned 9.01 2002[Neighboringcountrieswithgunlawandmurderratedataavailable]

Belgium allowed 1.70 late1990sFrance allowed 1.65 2003Germany allowed 0.93 2003

C.Russia banned 20.54 2002[Neighboringcountrieswithgunlawandmurderratedataavailable]

Finland allowed 1.98 2004Norway allowed 0.81 2001

Notes:This tablecoversall theEuropeannations forwhich the infor

mation given is available.As in Table 1, thehomicide ratedata comesfrom an annually published report, CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICESTATISTICS,HOMICIDEINCANADA,JURISTAT.

Once again, we are not arguing that the data in Table 2shows that gun control causes nations to have much higher

scorecardforitsmisleadingattemptstoinverselycorrelateviolentcrimeratestotheextentofthevariousstatesguncontrols.Hepointsoutthat, infact,thestateswiththemostrestrictivegunlawsconsistentlyhavehighermurderratesthanstateswith lessrestrictive laws,whilethosewiththeleastcontrolshadthelowesthomicide rates.LarryPratt,HCIScorecard (2000),http://gunowners.org/op0042.htm; seealsoinfranote131.

50.It

is

noteworthy

that

the

correlation

between

more

gun

control

and

more

crime

seemstoholdtrueinothernations,thoughmuchlessstrikinglythanintheUnitedStates.SeeMiron,supranote30,at628.


17/46


murder rates than neighboring nations that permit handgunownership.Rather,we assert apolitical causation for theobservedcorrelationthatnationswithstringentguncontrolstendto have much higher murder rates than nations that allow

guns.The political causation is that nationswhich have violenceproblemstendtoadoptsevereguncontrols,butthesedonot reduce violence, which is determined by basic socioculturalandeconomicfactors.Thepoint is exemplifiedby the conclusions of thepremier

studyofEnglishguncontrol.DonebyaseniorEnglishpoliceofficial as his thesis at theCambridgeUniversity Institute ofCriminologyandlaterpublishedasabook,itfound(asoftheearly 1970s), Half a century of strict controls...has ended,perversely,witha fargreateruseof[handguns] incrimethaneverbefore.51Thestudyalsostatesthat:

Nomatterhowoneapproachesthefigures,oneisforcedto

the rather startling conclusion that the use of firearms incrimewas verymuch less [inEnglandbefore 1920]whentherewereno controlsof any sort andwhen anyone, convicted criminal or lunatic, couldbuy any type of firearmwithoutrestriction.52

Ofcoursethepointofthisanalysisisnotthatthelawshouldallowlunaticsandcriminalstoownguns.Thepointisthatviolencewillberarewhen thebasicsocioculturalandeconomicdeterminants sodictate;andconversely, crimewill rise in response to changes in those determinantswithout much regard to themere availabilityof someparticularweaponryortheseverityoflawsagainstit.

III. DOORDINARYPEOPLEMURDER?Themoregunsequalmoredeathmantraseemsplausible

onlywhenviewedthroughtherubricthatmurdersmostly involveordinarypeoplewhokillbecause theyhaveaccess toafirearmwhen theygetangry. If thiswere true,murdermightwell increasewherepeoplehavereadyaccess to firearms,butthe available dataprovides no such correlation.Nations and

51.COLIN

GREENWOOD,

FIREARMS

CONTROL:

A

STUDYOF

ARMED

CRIMEAND

FIREARMSCONTROLINENGLANDANDWALES243(1972).52.Id.


18/46


areaswithmoregunsper capitado nothavehighermurderratesthanthosewithfewergunspercapita.53Nevertheless, critics of gun ownership often argue that a

gunintheclosettoprotectagainstburglarswillmostlikelybe

usedtoshootaspouseinamomentofrage....Theproblemisyouandmelawabidingfolks;54thatbanninghandgunpossessiononlyforthosewithcriminalrecordswillfailtoprotectusfromthemostlikelysourceofhandgunmurder:ordinarycitizens;55 that mostgunrelatedhomicides...are the resultofimpulsive actions taken by individuals who have little or nocriminal background orwho are known to the victims;56 thatthemajorityoffirearmhomicide[soccur]...notastheresultofcriminalactivity,butbecauseofargumentsbetweenpeoplewhoknoweachother;57thateachyeartherearethousandsofgunmurdersby lawabidingcitizenswhomighthave stayedlawabidingiftheyhadnotpossessedfirearms.58

Thesecommentsappeartorestonnoevidenceandactuallycontradictfacts thathavesouniformlybeenestablishedbyhomicidestudiesdatingbacktothe1890sthattheyhavebecomecriminological axioms.59 Insofar as studies focus on perpetrators, theyshowthatneitheramajority,normany,norvirtuallyanymurderersareordinarylawabiding citizens.60Rather,almostallmurderers are extremely aberrant individuals with life histories ofviolence,psychopathology,substanceabuse,andotherdangerousbehaviors. The vast majority of persons involved in lifethreateningviolencehavealongcriminalrecordwithmanypriorcontactswiththejusticesystem.61Thushomicide[whether]ofa

53.SeesupraTables12andnotes1015;seeinfraTable3andnotes125127.54.DavidKairys,ACarnageintheNameofFreedom,PHILADELPHIAINQUIRER,Sept.

12,1988,atA15(emphasisadded),quotedinFrankJ.Vandall,APreliminaryConsiderationofIssuesRaisedintheFirearmsSellersImmunityBill,38AKRONL.REV.113,118n.28(2005).55.NicholasDixon,WhyWeShouldBanHandgunsintheUnitedStates,12ST.LOUIS

U.PUB.L.REV.243,26566(1993)(emphasisadded),quotedinVandall,supranote54,at119,n.32.56.ROBERTJ.SPITZER,THEPOLITICSOFGUNCONTROL147(3rded.1995)(empha

sisadded).57.ViolencePolicyCenter,WhoDies?ALookatFirearmsDeathand Injury in

America,http://www.vpc.org/studies/whointro.htm(lastvisitedNov.17,2006).58.NatlCoalitiontoBanHandguns,supranote21(emphasisadded).59.SeeDavidM.Kennedy&AnthonyJ.Braga,Homicide inMinneapolis:Research

forProblem

Solving,

2

HOMICIDE

STUD.

263,

267

(1998).

60.SeeElliott,supranote37,at1093.61.Id.


19/46


strangeror[of]someoneknowntotheoffenderisusuallypartofapatternofviolence,engagedinbypeoplewhoareknown...asviolenceprone.62Thoughonly15%ofAmericansovertheageof15havearrestrecords,63approximately90percentofadultmur

derershave adult records,with an average adult criminal career[involvingcrimescommittedasanadultratherthanachild]ofsixormoreyears, including fourmajoradult felonyarrests.64Thesenational statistics dovetail with data from local nineteenth andtwentiethcenturystudies.Forexample:victimsaswellasoffenders[in1950sand1960sPhiladelphiamurders]...tendedtobepeoplewith priorpolice records, usually for violent crimes such as assault.65 The greatmajority ofbothperpetrators andvictims of[1970sHarlem]assaultsandmurdershadprevious[adult]arrests,probablyover80%ormore.66Bostonpoliceandprobationofficersin the 1990s agreed that of those juvenileperpetrated murderswhereall the factswereknown,virtuallyallwerecommittedby

gangmembers,

though

the

killing

was

not

necessarily

gang

directed.67Oneexamplewouldbeagangmemberwhostabshisgirlfriendtodeathinafitofanger.68Regardlessoftheirarrestsforothercrimes,80%of1997Atlantamurderarresteeshadatleastoneearlier drug offensewith 70% having 3 ormore prior drug offenses.69ANewYorkTimesstudyofthe1,662murderscommittedinthatcityintheyears20032005foundthat[m]orethan90percentofthekillershadcriminalrecords.70Baltimorepolicefiguresshowthat92percentofmurdersuspectshad[prior]criminalrecordsin2006.71Severalofthemorerecenthomicidestudiesjustreviewed

62.GERALDD.ROBIN,VIOLENTCRIMEANDGUNCONTROL48(1991)(quotingGary

Kleck,

The

Assumptions

of

Gun

Control,

in

FIREARMSAND

VIOLENCE

23,

43

(Don

B.

Katesed.,1984)).63.MarkCooney,TheDeclineofEliteHomicide,35CRIMINOLOGY381,386(1997).64.GARYKLECK&DONB.KATES,ARMED:NEWPERSPECTIVESONGUNCONTROL

20(2001).65.ROGERLANE,MURDERINAMERICA:AHISTORY259(1997).66.A.SWERSKEY&E.ENLOE,HOMICIDEINHARLEM17(1975).67.AnthonyA.Bragaetal.,YouthHomicideinBoston:AnAssessmentofSupplemen

taryHomicideReportData,3HOMICIDESTUDIES277,28384(1999).68.Seeid.69.Dean G. Rojek, The Homicide and Drug Connection, in THE VARIETIES OF

HOMICIDEANDITSRESEARCH:PROCEEDINGSOFTHE1999MEETINGOFTHEHOMICIDERESEARCHWORKINGGROUP128(P.H.Blackmanetal.eds.,2000)[hereinafterTHEVARIETIESOFHOMICIDE].70.JoCravenMcGinty,NewYorkKillers, andThoseKilled, by theNumbers,N.Y.

TIMES,April

28,

2006,

at

A1.

71.GusG.Sentementes,PatternsPersist inCityKillings,BALTIMORESUN,Jan.1,2007,atA1.


20/46


weredoneattheKennedySchoolofGovernmentatHarvardandfoundalmostallarrestedmurdererstohaveearlierarrests.72That murderers are not ordinary, lawabiding responsible

adults is further documented in other sources. Psychological

studiesofjuvenilemurderersvariouslyfindthatatleast80%,ifnotall,arepsychoticorhavepsychoticsymptoms.73OfMassachusettsdomesticmurderersintheyears19911995,73.7%hadaprior[adult]criminalhistory,16.5%hadanactiverestrainingorderregisteredagainstthemat the timeof thehomicide,and46.3%oftheviolentperpetratorshadhadarestrainingordertakenoutagainstthemsometimebeforetheircrime.74This laststudy isoneofmanyexposing the falseargument

thatasignificantnumberofmurders involveordinarypeoplekillingspousesinamomentofrage.Althoughtherearemanydomestichomicides, suchmurdersdonotoccur frequently inordinaryfamilies,norarethemurderersordinary,lawabiding

adults.Thedaytodayrealityisthatmostfamilymurdersareprefacedby a long history of assaults.75One study of suchmurders found that ahistoryofdomesticviolencewaspresentin95.8%ofcases.76Thesefindingsarearoutinefeatureofdomestic homicide studies: [domestic] partner homicide ismost often the final outcome of chronicwomenbattering;77basedonastudyfromKansasCity,90%ofallthefamilyhomi

72.AnthonyA.Bragaetal.,UnderstandingandPreventingGangViolence:ProblemAnalysis andResponseDevelopment in Lowell,Massachusetts, 9 POLICE Q. 20, 2931(2006)(Some95%ofhomicideoffenders,82%ofaggravatedassaultoffenders,65%

ofhomicidevictims,and45%ofaggravatedgunassaultvictimswerearraignedatleastonce inMassachusettscourtsbefore theycommitted theircrimeorwerevictimized.Individualsthatwerepreviouslyknowntothecriminaljusticesystemwereinvolved in a wide variety of offenses and, on average, committed many priorcrimes....Onaverage,aggravatedgunassaultoffendershadbeenarraignedfor12prioroffenses,homicideoffendershadbeenarraignedfor9prioroffenses....).

73.WadeC.Myers&KerrilynScott,PsychoticandConductDisorderSymptoms inJuvenileMurderers,2HOMICIDESTUD.160,16162(1998).

74.LindaLangfordetal.,CriminalandRestrainingOrderHistoriesofIntimatePartnerRelated Homicide Offenders in Massachusetts, 19911995, in THE VARIETIES OFHOMICIDE,supranote69,at51,55,59.75.MurrayA. Straus,DomesticViolence andHomicideAntecedents, 62BULL.N.Y.

ACAD.MED.446,454(1986);seealsoMurrayA.Straus,MedicalCareCostsofIntrafamilyAssaultandHomicide,62BULL.N.Y.ACAD.MED.556,557(1986).76.PaigeHallSmithetal.,PartnerHomicideinContext,2HOMICIDESTUD.400,410

(1998)(reporting

cases

only

where

there

was

sufficient

background

information

on

theparties).77.Id.at411.


21/46


cideswereprecededbypreviousdisturbancesatthesameaddress,withamedianof5callsperaddress.78The only kind of evidence cited to support the myth that

most murderers are ordinary people is that many murders

arisefromargumentsoroccurinhomesandbetweenacquaintances.79Thesebare factsareonlyrelevant ifoneassumes thatcriminalsdonothave acquaintancesorhomes or arguments.Of the many studies belying this, the broadest analyzed ayearsnationaldataongunmurdersoccurring inhomes andbetween acquaintances. It found the most common victimoffender relationshipwas wherebothparties ...knew oneanotherbecauseofpriorillegaltransactions.80Thusthetermacquaintancehomicidedoesnotrefersolely

tomurdersbetweenordinaryacquaintances.Rather itencompasses,forexample:drugdealerskilledbycompetitorsorcustomers,gangmemberskilledbymembersofthesameorrival

gangs,andwomenkilledbystalkersorabuserswhohavebrutalizedthemonearlieroccasions,allindividualsforwhomfederalandstatelawsalreadyprohibitgunpossession.81Obviously there are certain people who should notbe al

lowedtoownanydeadlyinstrument.Reasonableassuchprohibitionsare,itisunrealistictothinkthosepeoplewillcomplywithsuchrestrictionsanymorereadilythantheydowithlawsagainst violent crime.82 In any event, studies analyzing ac

78.ROBIN,supranote62,at4748;seealsoKathrynE.Moraccoetal.,Femicide inNorthCarolina,19911993,2HOMICIDESTUD.422,441(1998).79.See, e.g.,SPITZER, supranote56;JeremiahA.Barondess,Letter to theEditor,

FirearmViolenceandPublicHealth,272J.AM.MED.ASSN1406,1409(1994)(respondingtocriticismofhisarticle,KarlP.Adleretal.,FirearmViolenceandPublicHealth:Limiting theAvailability ofGuns,271J.AM.MED.ASSN1281 (1994));Kairys, supranote54.80.KLECK,supranote8,at236(analyzingtheU.S.BureauofJusticeStatisticsdata

onmurderdefendantsbeingprosecutedin33U.S.urbancounties).

81.Current federal lawprohibits gunpossessionbyminors,drug addicts, andpersonswhohavebeeninvoluntarilycommittedtomentalinstitutionsorconvictedoffeloniesordomesticviolencemisdemeanors.18U.S.C. 922(g)(2000).Astostategunlaws,see,forexample,CAL.PENALCODE 12021,12072,12101,12551(Deering2006).Forasummaryofthegeneralpatternsoffederalandstategunlaws,seeJACOBS,supranote11,at1935.

82.SeeWRIGHTETAL.,supranote11,at13738([T]hereisnogoodreasontosupposethatpeopleintentonarmingthemselvesforcriminalpurposeswouldnotbeabletodosoevenifthegeneralavailabilityoffirearmstothelargerpopulationwere

sharplyrestricted.

Here

itmay

be

appropriate

to

recall

the

First

Law

of

Economics,

a

lawwhoseoperationhasbeensharplyinevidenceinthecaseofProhibition,marijuanaandotherdrugs,prostitution,pornography,andahostofotherbannedarti


22/46


quaintancehomicide suggest there isno reason for lawsprohibitinggunpossessionby ordinary, lawabiding responsibleadultsbecausesuchpeoplevirtuallynevermurder. Ifoneacceptsthatsuchadultsarefarmore likelytobevictimsofvio

lentcrimethantocommitit,disarmingthembecomesnotjustunproductivebutcounterproductive.83

IV. MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME?Antigunactivistsarenotalone in theirbelief thatwidespread

firearm ownership substantially affects violent crime rates. Thesameunderstandingalsocharacterizesmanyprogunactivists.Ofcourse,progunactivistsbeliefleadsthemtotheoppositeconclusion: thatwidespread firearmownershipreducesviolencebydeterring criminals from confrontation crimes and making moreattractivesuchnonconfrontationcrimesas theft fromunoccupied

commercialor

residential

premises.

Superficially,

the

evidence

for

thisbeliefseemspersuasive.Table1,forinstance,showsthatDenmarkhasroughlyhalf thegunownershiprateofNorway,buta50%highermurderrate,whileRussiahasonlyoneninthNorways

clesandsubstancesnamely,thatdemandcreatesitsownsupply.Thereisnoevidenceanywheretoshowthatreducingtheavailabilityoffirearmsingenerallikewisereducestheiravailabilitytopersonswithcriminalintent,orthatpersonswithcriminalintentwouldnotbeabletoarmthemselvesunderanysetofgeneralrestrictionsonfirearms.).83.ThisArticlewillnotdiscussthedefensiveuseoffirearmsbeyondmakingthe

followingobservations:whilethereisagreatdealofcontroversyaboutthesubject,it isamisleadingcontroversy inwhichantigunadvocates deepethicalormoralobjectionstocivilianselfdefensearepresentedintheguiseofempiricalargument.Theempiricalevidenceunquestionablyestablishesthatgunownershipbyprospectivevictimsnotonlyallows them to resistcriminalattack,butalsodetersviolentcriminals fromattackingthem in the firstplace.SeeJOSEPHF.SHELEY&JAMESD.WRIGHT,INTHELINEOFFIRE:YOUTHS,GUNS,ANDVIOLENCEINURBANAMERICA63(1995), and JAMES D. WRIGHT & PETER H. ROSSI, ARMED AND CONSIDEREDDANGEROUS:ASURVEYOFFELONSANDTHEIRFIREARMS154(1986)foradiscussionofDept.ofJusticefundedsurveysofincarceratedadultandjuvenilefelons.SeealsoLOTT,THEBIASAGAINSTGUNS,supranote30,at811,22740;DavidB.Kopel,Lawyers,Guns,andBurglars,43ARIZ.L.REV.345(2001);LawrenceSouthwick,Jr.,SelfDefensewithGuns:TheConsequences,28J.CRIM.JUST.351(2000).The legitimate question is not whether victim gun possession allows for self

defenseanddeterscriminalviolence,buthowextensiveandimportantthesebenefitsare.SeeKLECK&KATES,supranote64,at213342;LOTT,supranote11;PhilipJ.Cook&JensLudwig,DefensiveGunUses:NewEvidencefromaNationalSurvey,14J.QUANTITATIVE CRIMINOLOGY 111 (1998); PhilipJ.Cook&Jens Ludwig,Guns in

America:National

Survey

on

Private

Ownership

and

Use

of

Firearms,

Natl

Inst.

Just.:

Research inBrief (U.S.DeptofJustice,Washington,D.C.,1997);MarvinE.Wolfgang,ATributetoaViewIHaveOpposed,86J.CRIM.L.&CRIMINOLOGY188(1995).


23/46


gunownership ratebutamurder rate2500%higher.LookingatTables13,itiseasytofindnationsinwhichveryhighgunownershipratescorrelatewithverylowmurderrates,whileothernationswith very low gun ownership rates have much higher murder

rates. Moreover, there is not insubstantial evidence that in theUnitedStateswidespreadgunavailabilityhashelpedreducemurderandotherviolentcrimerates.Oncloseranalysis,however,thisevidenceappearsuniquelyapplicabletotheUnitedStates.More than 100 million handguns are owned in the United

States84primarily for selfdefense,85 and 3.5millionpeoplehavepermits to carry concealed handguns for protection.86 RecentanalysisrevealsagreatdealofselfdefensiveuseoffirearmsintheUnitedStates,infact,moredefensivegunuses[byvictims]thancrimescommittedwithfirearms.87Itislittlewonderthatthe

National InstituteofJustice surveysamongprison inmatesfindthatlargepercentagesreportthattheirfearthatavictim

mightbe armeddeterred them from confrontation crimes.[T]he felonsmost frightened aboutconfrontinganarmedvictim were those from states with the greatest relativenumberofprivatelyowned firearms.Conversely, robberyishighestinstatesthatmostrestrictgunownership.88

Concomitantly,aseriesofstudiesbyJohnLottandhiscoauthorDavidMustardconcludethattheissuanceofmillionsofpermitstocarryconcealedhandgunsisassociatedwithdrasticdeclinesinAmericanhomiciderates.89Ironically,todetailtheAmericanevidenceforwidespreadde

fensivegunownershipsdeterrentvalueisalsotoraisequestionsabouthowapplicable thatevidencewouldbeeven to theother

nations thathavewidespreadgunownershipbut lowviolence.TherearenodataforforeignnationscomparabletotheAmericandatajustdiscussed.Withoutsuchdata,wecannotknowwhethermillionsofNorwegiansownhandgunsandcarrythemforprotec

84.Kates,supranote29,at63.85.KLECK,supranote8,at74(collectingsurveyresponses).86.Kates,supranote29,at64.87.JACOBS,supranote11,at14(collectingstudies).

88.Kates,supranote29,at70(collectingstudies).89.LOTT,supranote11;JohnR.Lott&DavidB.Mustard,Crime,Deterrence,and

RighttoCarry, 26J.LEGAL STUD. 1 (1997);DavidB.Mustard,CultureAffectsOur

BeliefsAbout

Firearms,

But

Data

are

Also

Important,

151

U.

PENN.

L.

REV.

1387

(2003).

Thesestudiesarehighlycontroversial.SeeKates,supranote29,at7071,fordiscussionofcriticsandcriticisms.


24/46


tion, thereby deterring Norwegian criminals from committingviolent crimes.Nor canweknowwhetherguns are commonlykept fordefense inGermanhomes and stores, thuspreventingGermancriminalsfromrobbingthem.

Moreover,ifthedeterrenteffectofgunownershipaccountsforlowviolenceratesinhighgunownershipnationsotherthantheUnitedStates,onewonderswhy thatdeterrent effectwouldbeamplifiedthere.EvenwiththedropinUnitedStatesmurderratesthatLott andMustard attribute to themassive increase inguncarry licensing, theUnitedStatesmurderrate isstilleight timeshigherthanNorwayseventhoughtheU.S.hasanalmost300%higherrateofgunownership.That isconsistentwiththepointsmadeabove.Murderratesaredeterminedbysocioeconomicandculturalfactors.IntheUnitedStates,thosefactorsincludethatthenumber of civilianowned guns nearly equals thepopulationtriple the ownership rate in even the highest European gun

ownershipnationsand

that

vast

numbers

of

guns

are

kept

for

personaldefense.That isnotafactor inothernationswithcomparatively high firearm ownership. High gun ownership maywellbea factor in the recentdrasticdecline inAmericanhomicide.Butevenso,Americanhomicideisdrivenbysocioeconomicandcultural factors thatkeep it farhigher than thecomparablerateofhomicideinmostEuropeannations.Insum,thoughmanynationswithwidespreadgunownership

havemuch lowermurderrates thannations thatseverelyrestrictgunownership, itwouldbesimplistic toassume thatatalltimesandinallplaceswidespreadgunownershipdepressesviolencebydeterring many criminals into nonconfrontation crime. There is

evidencethat

itdoes

so

in

the

United

States,

where

defensive

gun

ownership is a substantial sociocultural phenomenon. But themoreplausibleexplanation formanynationshavingwidespreadgunownershipwith lowviolence is that thesenationsneverhadhighmurderandviolenceratesandsoneverhadoccasiontoenactsevereantigun laws.Ontheotherhand,innationsthathaveexperiencedhighandrisingviolentcrimerates,the legislativereactionhasgenerallybeentoenact increasinglysevereantigun laws.Thisisfutile,forreducinggunownershipbythelawabidingcitizenrytheonlyoneswhoobeygun lawsdoesnot reduceviolenceormurder.Theresultisthathighcrimenationsthatbangunstoreducecrimeenduphavingbothhighcrimeandstringentgun

laws,while

itappears

that

low

crime

nations

that

do

not

signifi

cantlyrestrictgunscontinuetohavelowviolencerates.


25/46


Thusboth sides of the gun prohibition debate are likelywronginviewingtheavailabilityofgunsasamajorfactorinthe incidence of murder in any particular society. Thoughmanypeoplemaystillclingtothatbelief,thehistorical,geo

graphic,anddemographicevidenceexplored in thisArticleprovidesaclearadmonishment. Whethergunavailability isviewed as a cause or as amere coincidence, the long termmacrocosmicevidence is thatgunownershipspreadwidelythroughout societies consistently correlates with stable ordecliningmurderrates.Whethercausativeornot,theconsistent international pattern is thatmoreguns equal lessmurderandotherviolentcrime.Even ifone is inclined to thinkthatgunavailability isan important factor,theavailable international data cannot be squared with the mantra thatmore guns equal more death and fewer guns equal lessdeath.Rather, if firearms availabilitydoesmatter, thedata

consistentlyshow

that

the

way

it

matters

is

that

more

guns

equallessviolentcrime.

V. GEOGRAPHIC,HISTORICALANDDEMOGRAPHICPATTERNS

Ifmoregunsequalmoredeathand fewergunsequal lessdeath, it should follow,all thingsbeing equal, (1) thatgeographicareaswithhighergunownershipshouldhavemoremurder than thosewith lessgunownership; (2) thatdemographicgroupswithhighergunownershipshouldbemorepronetomurderthanthosewithlessownership;and(3)that

historicaleras

in

which

gun

ownership

is

widespread

should

havemoremurder than those inwhichgunswere fewerorlesswidespread.As discussed earlier, these effects are notpresent. Historical eras, demographic groups, and geographic areas with more guns do not have more murdersthan thosewith fewerguns. Indeed, thosewithmoregunsoften,orevengenerally,havefewermurders.Of course, all other thingsmay notbe equal.Obviously,

many factors other than guns may promote or reduce thenumberofmurdersinanygivenplaceortimeoramongparticular groups. And it maybe impossible even to identifythesefactors,muchlesstotakeaccountofthemall.Thusany

conclusions

drawn

from

the

kinds

of

evidence

presented

ear

lierinthispapermustnecessarilybetentative.


26/46


Acknowledgingthisdoesnot,however,blunttheforceoftwo crucial points. The first regards the burden of proof.Thosewho assertthe mantra,and urgethatpublicpolicybebasedon it, bear the burden ofproving thatmoregunsdo

equalmoredeathand fewergunsequallessdeath.But theycannotbear thatburdenbecause there simply is no largenumber of cases in which the widespread prevalence ofguns among the generalpopulation has led tomoremurder.By the same token,but evenmore importantly, itcannot beshownconsistentlythatareductioninthenumberofguns available to the general population has led to fewerdeaths.Nor isthe burden bornebyspeculatingthatthe reason such cases do not appear is that other factors alwaysintervene.The second issue, allied to theburden ofproof, regards

plausibility.Ontheirface,the followingfactsfromTables1

and2suggest

that

gun

ownership

is

irrelevant,

or

has

little

relevance, to murder: France and neighboring Germanyhaveexactlythesame,comparativelyhighrateofgun ownership,yet the Frenchmurderrate isnearly twice theGerman; France has infinitely more gun ownership thanLuxembourg, which nevertheless has a murder rate fivetimesgreater, thoughhandgunsare illegaland other typesofgunssparse;Germanyhasalmostdoublethe gun ownership rate of neighboring Austria yet a similarly very low murder rate; the Norwegian gun ownership rate is overtwice the Austrian rate, yet the murder rates are almostidentical.

Andthen

there

is

Table

3,

which

shows

Slovenia,

with

66%

moregunownershipthanSlovakia,nevertheless hasroughlyonethird lessmurderpercapita;Hungaryhasmore than6timesthegunownershiprateofneighboringRomaniabutalowermurderrate;theCzechRepublicsgunownershiprateismorethan3timesthatofneighboringPoland,butitsmurderrateis lower;PolandandneighboringSloveniahaveexactly thesamemurderrate, thoughSloveniahasover triplethegunownershippercapita.


27/46


Table3:EasternEuropeGunOwnershipandMurderRates(ratesgivenareper100,000peopleandindescendingorder)

Nation MurderRate RateofGunOwnership

Russia 20.54*[2002] 4,000

Moldova 8.13**[2000] 1,000

Slovakia 2.65**[2000] 3,000

Romania 2.50**[2000] 300

Macedonia 2.31**[2000] 16,000

Hungary 2.22[2003] 2,000

Finland 1.98[2004] 39,000

Poland 1.79[2003] 1,500

Slovenia 1.81**[2000] 5,000

Cz.Republic 1.69**[2000] 5,000

Greece 1.12[2003] 11,000

Notes:ThistablecoversalltheEasternEuropeannationsforwhichwehavedataregardingbothgunownershipandmurderrates.GunownershipdatacomesfromGRADUATEINSTITUTEOFINTERNATIONALSTUDIES,SMALLARMSSURVEY(2003).

*CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2002,JURISTATat3.

**UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrime,TheSeventhUnitedNationsSurveyonCrimeTrendsandtheOperationsofCriminalJusticeSystems(19982000),Mar.31,2004,at82,260,287,370,405,398.

CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2003,JURISTATat3.

CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2004,JURISTATat3.

Ontheirface,Tables1,2,and3andthecomparisonsgleaned

fromthem

suggest

that

gun

ownership

is

irrelevant,

or

has

little

relevance, tomurder.Historical anddemographic comparisonsofferfurtherevidence.Again,allthedatamaybemisleading.Itisconceivablethatmoregunsdoequalmoremurder,butthatthiscausationdoesnotappearbecause someunidentifiableextraneous factoralways intervenes.That isconceivable,butultimatelyunlikely.AsHansToch,aseniorAmericancriminologistwho35years ago endorsed handgun prohibition and confiscation,butthenrecantedbasedonlaterresearch,arguesitishardtoexplainthatwherefirearmsaremostdense,violentcrimeratesarelowestandwheregunsareleastdense,violentcrimeratesarehighest.90

90.Toch&Lizotte,supranote11,at232.ProfessorTochwasaconsultantto the1960sEisenhowerCommission,anduntilthe1990sheendorseditsconclusionsthat


28/46


A. DemographicPatternsContrarytowhatshouldbethecaseifmoregunsequalmore

death, there are no consistent indications of a linkbetweengunownershipandcriminalorviolentbehaviorbyowners;infact, gun ownership is higher among whites than amongblacks,higheramongmiddleagedpeople thanamongyoungpeople,higheramongmarriedthanamongunmarriedpeople,higheramongricherpeoplethanpoorallpatternsthatarethe reverse of theway inwhich criminalbehavior isdistributed.91Theseconclusionsarereinforcedby focusingonpatternsof

AfricanAmerican homicide. Per capita, AfricanAmericanmurder rates are much higher than the murder rate forwhites.92Ifmoregunsequalmoredeath,andfewergunsequalless,onemightassumegunownership ishigheramongAfricanAmericans than among whites, but in fact AfricanAmerican gun ownership ismarkedly lower thanwhite gunownership.93

widespread handgun ownership causes violence and that reducing ownershipwouldreduceviolence.FranklinZimring,oneofthearchitectsofthoseconclusions,hasadmittedthattheyweremadespeculativelyandessentiallywithoutanempiricalbasis.FRANKLINE.ZIMRING&GORDONHAWKINS,THECITIZENSGUIDETOGUNCONTROL xixii (1987) (In the 1960s after the assassinationsofPresidentJohnF.Kennedy,Dr.MartinLutherKing,Jr.,andSenatorRobertF.Kennedy,it[guncontrol]becameamajorsubjectofpublicpassionandcontroversy...[sparkingadebate that] hasbeen heated, acrimonious and polarized....Itbegan in a factualvacuum[inwhich]...neithersidefeltanygreatneedforfactualsupporttobuttress

foregoneconclusions.

In

the

1960s,

there

was

literally

no

scholarship

on

the

relationship

betweengunsandviolenceandtheincidenceorconsequencesofinterpersonalviolence,andnoworkinprogress.(emphasisadded)).

Asforthefindingsofthesubsequentbodyofresearch,ProfessorTochhaswritten:

[W]henusedforprotectionfirearmscanseriouslyinhibitaggressionandcanprovideapsychologicalbufferagainstthefearofcrime.Furthermore,the fact thatnationalpatterns show littleviolent crimewheregunsaremostdenseimpliesthatgunsdonotelicitaggressioninanymeaningfulway....Quitethecontrary,thesefindingssuggestthathighsaturationsof guns in places, or something correlatedwith that condition, inhibitillegalaggression.

Id.at234&n.10.91.KLECK,supranote8,at71.92.SeeMALCOLM,supranote10,at23233;AlfredBlumstein,YouthViolence,Guns,

andthe

Illicit

Drug

Industry,

86

J.

CRIM.

L.

&

CRIMINOLOGY10,

21

(1995).

93.SeeLOTT, supranote 11, at 39 ([W]hite gun ownership exceed[ed] that forblacksbyabout40in1996);seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at71.


29/46


Particularlycorrosive to themantraare the factsas toruralAfricanAmericans gun ownership. Per capita, rural AfricanAmericansaremuchmore likelytoownfirearmsthanareurban AfricanAmericans.94 Yet, despite their greater access to

guns, the firearmmurderrateofyoungruralblackmales isasmallfractionofthefirearmmurderrateofyoungurbanblackmales.95Thesefactsareonlyanomalousinrelationtothemantrathat

moregunsequalmoredeathandfewergunsequallessdeath.Incontrast, these factsaccordwith theearlierpointregardingtheaberranceofmurderers.Whatevertheirrace,ordinarypeople simply do notmurder. Thus preventing lawabiding, responsibleAfricanAmericans fromowninggunsdoesnothingatalltoreducemurderers,becausetheyarenottheoneswhoare doing the killing.Themurderers are a smallminority ofextremeantisocialaberrantswhomanagetoobtaingunswhatever

thelevel

of

gun

ownership

in

the

African

American

community.

Indeed,murderers generally fall into a group some criminologistshavecalledviolentpredators,sharplydifferentiatingthemnotonly from theoverallpopulationbut fromothercriminalsaswell.96Surveysof imprisoned felons indicate thatwhennot imprisoned theordinary felonaveragesperhaps12crimesperyear.97Incontrast,violentpredatorsspendmuchormostof their time committing crimes,averaging at least 5assaults, 63 robberies, and 172 burglaries annually.98 A NationalInstituteofJusticesurveyof2,000felonsin10stateprisons, which focused on gun crime, said of these types ofrespondents:

[T]hemenwehave labeledPredatorswereclearlyomnibusfelons... [committing]moreorlessanycrimetheyhadtheopportunity to commit....The Predators (handgun andshotguncombined)...amounted toabout22%of the sampleandyetaccounted for51%of the totalcrime [admittedbythe2,000felons]....Thus,whenwetalkaboutcontrol

94.SeeLOTT,supranote11,at39;seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at71.95.ThemurderrateofyoungurbanAfricanAmericans isroughly600%higher

thanthatoftheirruralcounterparts.SeeLoisA.Fingerhutetal.,FirearmandNonfirearmHomicideAmongPersons15Through19YearsofAge,267J.AM.MED.ASSN3048,3049tbl.1.96.JANM.CHAIKEN&MARCIAR.CHAIKEN,VARIETIESOFCRIMINALBEHAVIOR

6263

(1982).

97.Id.at65.98.Id.at123,125,219tbl.A.19.


30/46


lingcrimeintheUnitedStatestoday,wearetalkinglargelyaboutcontrollingthebehaviorofthesemen.99

Thepoint isnotjustthatdemographicpatternsofhomicideand gun ownership in the AfricanAmerican community do

notsupportthemoregunsequalmoredeathmantra.Moreimportantly, thosepatterns refute the logicof fewerguns equalless death. The reason fewer guns among ordinary AfricanAmericansdoesnotleadtofewermurdersisbecausethatpaucitydoesnottranslatetofewergunsfortheaberrantminoritywhodomurder.Thecorrelationofveryhighmurderrateswithlowgunownership inAfricanAmerican communities simplydoesnotbearoutthenotionthatdisarmingthepopulaceasawholewilldisarmandpreventmurderbypotentialmurderers.

B. MacrohistoricalEvidence:FromtheMiddleAgestothe20thCentury

TheMiddleAgeswereatimeofnotoriouslybrutalandendemicwarfare.Theyalsoexperiencedratesofordinarymurder almost double the highest recordedU.S.murder rate.100ButMiddleAge homicide cannotbe explained in terms ofthe availability of firearms, which had not yet been invented.101Theinventionprovidessometestofthemantra.Ifit istruethatmoregunsequalmoremurderand fewergunsequal lessdeath,murder should have risenwith the invention, increasedefficiency,andgreateravailabilityof firearmsacrossthepopulation.Yet, using England as an example,murder rates seem to

have fallen sharplyasgunsbecameprogressivelymore efficientandwidelyownedduringthefivecenturiesaftertheinventionoffirearms.102Duringmuchofthisperiod,becausetheentireadultmalepopulationofEnglandwasdeemedtoconstituteamilitia,everymilitaryagemalewasrequiredtopossessarmsforuseinmilitiatrainingandservice.103

99.WRIGHT&ROSSI,supranote83,at76.100.LANE,supranote65,at14.101.Id.at151.Seegenerallyid.ch.1.

102.MALCOLM,supranote10,at1920.103.SeegenerallyJOYCELEEMALCOLM,TOKEEPANDBEARARMS:THEORIGINSOF

ANANGLOAMERICANRIGHT115(1994);STEPHENP.HALBROOK,THATEVERYMAN

BEARMED:

THE

EVOLUTION

OF

A

CONSTITUTIONAL

RIGHT

3753

(1984);

Don

B.

Kates,

HandgunProhibitionandtheOriginalMeaningoftheSecondAmendment,82MICH.L.REV.204,21416(1983).


31/46


Thesamerequirementwas true inAmericaduring theperiodofcolonialandpostcolonialsettlement.Indeed,thebasicEnglishmilitia lawswere supercededby the colonies evenmorespecificanddemanding legalrequirementsofuniversal

gunownership.Under those laws,virtuallyallcolonistsandeveryhouseholdwere required toownguns.Dependingonthecolonyslaws,maleyouthsweredeemedofmilitaryageat16,17,or 18,and everymilitary ageman,except for the insane, infirm, and criminals,had topossessarms.Theyweresubject tobeingcalled for inspection,militiadrill,orservice,allofwhich legallyrequired them tobringandpresent theirguns.Toarmthosetoopoortoaffordguns,thelawsrequiredthatgunsbepurchased for themand that theymake installmentpaymentstopaybackthecost.104Itbears emphasis that these gun ownership requirements

werenot limited to those subject tomilitia service.Women,

seamen,clergy,

and

some

public

officials

were

automatically

exemptfrommilitiacallup,asweremenovertheuppermili

104.MALCOLM,supranote103,at13841;Kates,supranote102,at21416.Typicallaws (quotedwith original spelling and punctuation) appear from the followingsources:ARCHIVESOFMARYLAND77(WilliamHandBrowneed.,Baltimore,MarylandHistoricalSociety1883) ([T]hateveryhousekeeperorhousekeeperswithinthisProvinceshallhavereadycontinuallyuponalloccasionswithinhisherortheirhouseforhimorthemselvesandforeverypersonwithinhisherortheirhouseabletobeararmesoneServiceablefixedgunneofbastardmuskettboarealongwithapoundofgunpowder,fourpoundsofpistolormusketshot,matchformatchlocksand of flints for firelocks);NARRATIVES OF EARLY VIRGINIA 273 (LyonGardinerTyler ed., photo. reprint 1974) (1907) (requiring that everyone attend church onSunday, furtherproviding that all suche asbeare armes shallbring theirpiecesswordes,poulderandshottewiththemtochurchonpenaltyofafine);RECORDSOFTHEGOVERNORANDCOMPANYOFTHEMASSACHUSETTSBAY INNEWENGLAND84(NathanielB.Shurtleffed.,Boston,WilliamWhite1853)(orderingtownstoprovidetheir residentswitharms if theycouldnotprovide theirownfor thepresent,&after to receive satisfaction for that they disburse when they shall be able);RECORDS OF THE COLONY OF RHODE ISLAND AND PROVIDENCE PLANTATIONS, INNEWENGLAND7980,94(JohnRussellBartletted.,Providence,A.CrawfordGreene&Brother,1856) (requiring, respectively:[T]hateverymandocomearmeduntothemeetinguponeverysixthday,andalsothatmilitiaofficersgotoeveryinhabitant[inPortsmouthand]seewhethereveryoneofthemhaspowderandbullets;andthatnoemanshallgotwomilesfromtheTowneunarmed,eytherwithGunnorSword;andthatnoneshallcometoanypublicMeetingwithouthisweapon.);THECODEOF1650,BEINGACOMPILATIONOFTHEEARLIESTLAWSANDORDERSOFTHEGENERALCOURTOFCONNECTICUT72 (Hartford,SilasAndrus1822)(Thatallpersons thatareabove the ageof sixteeneyeares,exceptmagistratesand church

officers,shall

beare

arms

...and

every

male

person

within

this

jurisdiction,

above

thesaidage,shallhaveincontinuallreadines,agoodmuskittorothergunn,fittforservice,andallowedbytheclarkoftheband.).


32/46


taryage,whichvaried from45 to 60,dependingon the colony.Buteveryhouseholdwasrequiredtohaveagun,evenifall itsoccupantswereotherwiseexempt frommilitiaservice,todeter criminals and other attackers.Likewise, all respect

ablemenweretheoreticallyrequiredtocarryarmswhenoutandabroad.105These laws may not havebeen fully enforced (except in

times of danger) in areas that had been longsettled andpeaceful. Nevertheless, by the eighteenth century, colonialAmericans were the most heavily armed people in theworld.106Yet,farfrommoregunsequalingmoredeath,murders in the New England colonies were rare, and fewmurderers in all the colonies involved guns despite theirwideavailability.107Americaremainedverywellarmedyethomicideremained

quite low forover twohundredyears, from the earliest set

tlementsthroughtheentirecolonialperiodandearlyyearsoftheUnitedStates.HomicideinmoresettledareasonlybeganrisingmarkedlyinthetwodecadesbeforetheCivilWar.108Bythat time theuniversalmilitiawas inoperative and theuniversality of American gun ownership had disappeared asmanypeople in longsettledpeacefulareasdidnothuntandhadnootherneedforafirearm.109

105.For collections ofmany of the relevant laws, seeClaytonE.Cramer,GunControl in Colonial New England, (unpublished manuscript, available athttp://www.claytoncramer.com/GunControlColonialNewEngland.PDF)(lastvisitedNov.19,2006);ClaytonE.Cramer,GunControl inColonialNewEngland,Part II

(unpublished manuscript, available at http://www.claytoncramer.com/ GunControlColonialNewEngland2.PDF) (last visited Nov. 19, 2006); Clayton E.Cramer,GunControlintheMiddle&SouthernColonies,(unpublishedmanuscript,available at http://www.claytoncramer.com/MiddleSouthernColonialGunControl.PDF) (last visited Nov. 19, 2006); Clayton E. Cramer, Militia Statutes,http://www.claytoncramer.com/primary.html#MilitiaLaws (last visited Nov. 19,2006).106.JOHNMORGANDEDERER,WARINAMERICATO1775,at116(1990).107.LANE,supranote64,at48,5960.108.Id.at344.109.Theenthusiasmmoderngunadvocatesexpressfortheancientmilitiafarex

ceeds the enthusiasm feltby the Englishmen andAmericanswhowere actuallysubjecttotheobligationsinvolved.Gunswereexpensiveitemsevenforthoseownerswhowere supplied themby thecoloniessince theywere required topay thecoloniesbackovertime.Andthedutyofmilitiadrillwasaconstantsourceofirrita

tionto

men

who

had

little

time

for

leisure

and

urgent

need

to

devote

their

time

to

makingalivingforthemselvesandtheirfamilies.Bytheturnofthenineteenthcentury,attheearliest,theuniversalmilitiawasindesuetudeandreplacedinthe1840s


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TheCivilWaracquaintedvastnumbersofmenwithmodern rapidfireguns,and, in itsaftermath,providedauniqueopportunity to acquire them. Before the Civil War, reliablemultishot rifles or shotguns did not exist and revolvers

(thoughtheyhadbeeninventedinthe1830s)weresoexpensivetheywereeffectivelyoutofreachformostoftheAmericanpopulace.110TheCivilWar changed all that.Officers onboth sides had tobuy their own revolvers, while sidearmswereissuedtononcommissionedofficersgenerally,aswellasthoseordinarysoldierswhowereintheartillery,cavalry,anddragoons.111ThefactthatovertwomillionmenservedintheUnionArmyatvarioustimeswhiletheConfederateshadoverhalf that number suggests the number of revolvers involved.112

bycolorfully

garbed

volunteer

formations

whose

activities

were

more

social

than

military.110.RevolverinventorSamuelColtsfirstbusinessfailedin1840.Itreviveditself

only with sales to officers and the military during the MexicanAmerican War(18461848),andsustaineditselfthroughthe1850swithsalestowealthyAmericansandEuropeans.SeeJOSEPHG.BILBY,CIVILWARFIREARMS157(1996);LEEKENNETT&JAMESLAVERNEANDERSON,THEGUNINAMERICA90(1975);LANE,supranote65,at109.ColtssalesflourishedasforeignarmiesadoptedhisrevolverandwidesalestookplaceinthecommercialmarketacrossEurope,KENNETT&ANDERSON,supra,at90,especiallyafterColtsprizewinningexhibitatthe1851GreatIndustrialExhibition in London. SeegenerallyJOSEPH G. ROSA, COLONEL COLT LONDON 1329(1976).111.SeegenerallyBILBY,supranote110,at15772.Therevolversinvolvedwereby

nomeans allColts: [T]heFederal government alsopurchased largenumbersofRemington,StarrandWhitneyrevolvers,aswellas thegunsofother [American]makers, including thebizarre lookingSavage,with itssecond ring triggerwhichcockedthearm,andthesidehammerJoslyn.Id.at158.VastnumbersofgunswerealsopurchasedinEuropewhere,inthefirst15monthsofthewar,theUnionboughtover738,000firearms(includinglongarmsaswellasrevolvers).ALLANR.MILLETT& PETER MASLOWSKI, FOR THE COMMON DEFENSE: A MILITARY HISTORY OF THEUNITEDSTATESOFAMERICA216(1984).SomeUnioninfantryunitswereissuedrevolversandmanyenlistedinfantrymeninotherunitsboughttheirown.BILBY,supranote110,at160.112.Thesefiguresarejustestimates.Whileatleastsomewhatreliablefiguresexist

forhowmanymenservedatanyonetimeintheUnionArmy,thatnumberisnotcoextensivewithhowmanyservedintotal.SomeUnionsoldiersservedthroughoutthewar,reenlistingwhentheiroriginalenlistmentswereup.Othersmusteredout andwere replacedwith new recruits. Still others deserted longbefore theirtermswereup,againrequiringreplacements.Somescoundrelsenlistedjustfortheenlistmentbonus,anddesertedassoonastheycould;someofthesewentthroughtheenlistmentanddesertionprocessmultipletimes,collectinganewbonusundera

newname

time

after

time.

THE

WORLD

ALMANAC

AND

BOOK

OF

FACTS

2006,

at

77

(2006)givesfiguresof2,128,948fortheUnionArmyand84,415fortheMarines;itestimatesthattheConfederateArmyssizewasbetween600,000to1,500,000.


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Atwarsend, theU.S.ArmyandNavywere leftwithvastnumbersofsurplusrevolvers,boththosetheyhadpurchasedand those captured from Confederate forces. As the Armyplummeted toslightlyover11,000men,113hundredsof thou

sands of military surplus revolvers were sold at very lowprices.Inaddition,when theirenlistmentswereup,orwhentheyweremusteredoutatwarsend,formerofficersands

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