Visioning Alternatives in Visioning Alternatives in the Sacramento Regionthe Sacramento Region

Lake Arrowhead ConferenceOctober 14, 2007Mike McKeeverSACOGExecutive Director

Sacramento Area Council Sacramento Area Council of Governmentsof Governments

6 counties

22 cities

2.2 million people

How to Best Manage How to Best Manage Growth?Growth?

Data from Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy

An Aging PopulationAn Aging Population

Housing Preferences – 55 and Housing Preferences – 55 and over moving in 1 to 5 years over moving in 1 to 5 years (Robert Charles Lessor (Robert Charles Lessor survey, 2003)survey, 2003)

• 34% want attached product • 32% want detached small lot single family• 32% want detached large lot single family

PRODUCT TYPE % ALL NEW UNITS

TOTAL NEW UNITS

Attached Products 28% 231,280

Small Lot Single Family 33% 272,580

Large Lot Single Family 36% 297,360

Other 3% 24,780

New Home Product Mix – Growth through 2050

Adjustments for Adjustments for Economic Realities?Economic Realities?

• Today 38% rent• In survey, 25% say their next move will be

“rental”• Average expected home purchase price is

$214,000• How much should we:

– Plan products they can afford to buy?.. vs.– Assume the will continue to have to rent

Base Base CaseCase

Urban Urban Footprint Footprint — 2050— 2050

Total1,058 Sq. Mi.

PreferredPreferredScenarioScenario

Urban Urban Footprint Footprint — 2050— 2050

Total701 Sq. Mi.

Urban Urban Footprint Footprint — 2035— 2035

Total324 Sq. Mi.

Regional Poll, 2004 Regional Poll, 2004 (Wirthlin Worldwide): (Wirthlin Worldwide): Growth Dominates List of Growth Dominates List of IssuesIssues

5

9

13

14

56

Education

Environment

Social Issues

Pocketbook /Economic

GrowthIssues

What would you say is the most important issue facing the Sacramento region at this time? (results among total sample)

Overall, Current Overall, Current Feeling About Growth Feeling About Growth Is NegativeIs Negative

-66 26

-63 30-76 19

-80 16

-73 20-69 31

-69 29

-71 25

Yuba County

Sutter CountyYolo County

El Dorado County

Placer CountrySacramento City

Sacramento County

Region TOTAL

Bad Thing Good Thing

Based on what you know, would you say this growth will be generally a good thing or a bad thing for quality of life in this area?

Growth Principles Growth Principles TestedTested

• Preserve open space• Transportation choices• Use existing assets• Jobs closer to where

people live• Offer housing choices

• Distinctive, quality design• Manage real growth

boundaries• Encourage compact

development• Mixed land uses

Positive or negative impact on quality of life?Positive or negative impact on your retirement years?

All Principles Seen As All Principles Seen As Having Positive ImpactHaving Positive Impact

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Positive RetirementNegative Quality of Life

Negative RetirementNegative Quality of Life

Negative RetirementPositive Quality of Life

Positive RetirementPositive Quality of Life

Attitudes Change if Attitudes Change if Principles FollowedPrinciples Followed

62

25

35

71

AfterDiscussing

Principles ofGrowth

BeforePrinciples of

GrowthDiscussed

Growth Good Thing Growth Bad Thing

37-point jump in “good thing”

-46

+27