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© Fraunhofer ISE VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030 Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 27.01.2014 www.ise.fraunhofer.de Workshop „IEA Technology Roadmaps: Solar Electricity, 2014 Updates“

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Page 1: VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030 · 20 9.0% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% Wind Off- shore 20 400/0 600/0 14.00/0 7.0% 9.8% (8.80/0)* 7.7% (6.70/0)* Brown coal 40 400/0 13.5% 6.0% 9.0% 6.9% Hard

© Fraunhofer ISE

VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030

Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

27.01.2014

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

Workshop „IEA Technology Roadmaps: Solar Electricity, 2014 Updates“

Page 2: VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030 · 20 9.0% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% Wind Off- shore 20 400/0 600/0 14.00/0 7.0% 9.8% (8.80/0)* 7.7% (6.70/0)* Brown coal 40 400/0 13.5% 6.0% 9.0% 6.9% Hard

© Fraunhofer ISE

2

Study »Levelized Cost of Electricity – RE technologies« November 2013

LCOE calculation for different renewable technologies

Technology specific CAPEX

Conventional power plants as reference

Projection until 2030

Download der Studie unter: www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/daten-zu-erneuerbaren-energien

Page 3: VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030 · 20 9.0% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% Wind Off- shore 20 400/0 600/0 14.00/0 7.0% 9.8% (8.80/0)* 7.7% (6.70/0)* Brown coal 40 400/0 13.5% 6.0% 9.0% 6.9% Hard

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Technology specific financing parameters for Germany

Page 4: VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030 · 20 9.0% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% Wind Off- shore 20 400/0 600/0 14.00/0 7.0% 9.8% (8.80/0)* 7.7% (6.70/0)* Brown coal 40 400/0 13.5% 6.0% 9.0% 6.9% Hard

© Fraunhofer ISE

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LCOE of different technologies in Germany 2013

Page 5: VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030 · 20 9.0% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% Wind Off- shore 20 400/0 600/0 14.00/0 7.0% 9.8% (8.80/0)* 7.7% (6.70/0)* Brown coal 40 400/0 13.5% 6.0% 9.0% 6.9% Hard

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Global PV market projection until 2030

2000 GW

3750 GW

850 GW

2013

2010

Page 6: VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030 · 20 9.0% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% Wind Off- shore 20 400/0 600/0 14.00/0 7.0% 9.8% (8.80/0)* 7.7% (6.70/0)* Brown coal 40 400/0 13.5% 6.0% 9.0% 6.9% Hard

© Fraunhofer ISE

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LCOE projection until 2030

Source: Study „Levelized Cost of Electricity“, Nov. 2013, Fraunhofer ISE

Bio gas

Wind Offshore

PV

Wind Onshore

PV-system PR of 14%

Page 7: VISION ON THE LCOE OF PV UNTIL 2030 · 20 9.0% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% Wind Off- shore 20 400/0 600/0 14.00/0 7.0% 9.8% (8.80/0)* 7.7% (6.70/0)* Brown coal 40 400/0 13.5% 6.0% 9.0% 6.9% Hard

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Thank-you for your attention!

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

[email protected]


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