vision 2050 the change to a sustainable energy path by gunnar boye olesen, emil bedi & ann...

Vision 2050The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path

By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi & Ann Vikkelsoe

INFORSE-Europe

Article on Vision 2050 at www.inforse.orgInternational Network for Sustainable Energy – Europe

is a network of 55 NGOs.

INFORSE-Europe is supported by EU Commission DG Environment, Danish Open Air Council and others

Sustainable Energy for Europe – INFORSE-Europe seminar – Brussels 27-28 November 2002

http://www.inforse.org/

Vision 2050 - Background

The world energy system: is beyond the environmental limits does not provide basic energy needs as light and

healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of the world’s population

To avoid dangerous climate change we must limit global warming to 1ºC in the 21st Century

We should provide all with basic energy needs and allow developing countries to develop, including use of cheap energy supply

INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy

Environmental Limit: Climate Change

To be sure to keep global warming below 1ºC century, we must limit global CO2 emissions to about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century = 35 years of current consumption (assumed climate sensitivity of 3.5ºC)

The climate sensitivity is commonly accepted to be in the range of 2 to 5ºC with an average of 3.5ºC.

A Global Sustainable Scenario

CO2 (MtC)/y

0100020003000

4000500060007000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

After 2000: 240 GtC


1990-2000:64 GtC

Scenario: Energy Services Industrialised countries Developing countries

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000 2050 2000 2050

Transport

El.+mechanical

Medium+high t.

Low temp.


Energy Services per capita

Energy Demand Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced

several times before 2050: new generations of equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology learning can drive prices down.

One exception is houses. In EU houses could use only 1/7 of todays heat demand in 2050. This will require renovation/re-building of 2% p.a. / heat consumption 20-40 kWh/year per m2

For transport is expected increase in efficiency from todays 15-20% to 50%, and re-gain of “break energy”. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions together with electrical driven vehicles.

Energy service demand will increase, also in industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.

Primary Energy (TWh/y)Industrialised countries Developing countries

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2000 2050 2000 2050

Nuclear

Fossil

Biomass

Hydro

Solar

Wind


Energy Supply

Wind: Follow Windforce10 growth from todays 20,000 MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then maybe less afterwards

Large wind power development programs are cost-effective: extra costs today will be paid back with future cost reductions due to technology learning. Some sites give cost-effective electricity today.

Solar: PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and then grow 25% pr. year

Biomass and hydro: Increase 30-50% in totalBiomass can be used as transport fuel


Renewable Energy Potential

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Potential Scenario

Gig

awat

t co

ntin

ues

cons

umpt

ion

Solar centrals

PV on houses

Biomass

Hydro

Windpower on farmland

Wind, off-shore etc.

52200 GW


Electricity - Worldwide (TWh/y)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Nuclear

Fossil tot.

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Example – DenmarkPrimary Energy Supply for Denmark (PJ)

Coal Oil

Gas

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

30

20

50

Statistics VisionProposal


Electricity Supply - Denmark

Fossil

Waste

Biomass

PV

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030 2050

Proposal (Scenario) VisionStatistics

Electricty Production( kWh/person pr. year)

Wind/hydro/waves

Economy - DK scenario until 2030

The low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than the business-as-usual scenario with zero discount rate

It is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rate If environmental costs are included or if fossil fuel

prices increases more than estimated by IEA, the low-energy scenario is considerably cheaper than business as usual.

expected lower growth in energy services: need for decoupling of economy and energy services


Example - Slovakia


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Today Possibleconsumption

2050

RE potential

PJ/

year

Electricity

Heat

Biomass-Heat+fuel

Liquids-transport

Gas

Coal-black/brown

OBS: Preliminary data

Slovakian Renewable Energy Potentials:

Heat-fuel reneweables - 256 PJ

Energy crops

Wood

Biogas Straw

Solar thermal

Geothermal INFORSEInternational Network for Sustainable Energy

Electricity - renewables 101 PJ

Hydro

Wind

PV

OBS: Preliminary data

Energy Infrastructure Electricity grid still needed, as today Electricity grid needs more regulation with many

decentralised production units ”intelligent grid” Need for electricity storage to compensate wind &

PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark probably chemical storage after 2030

New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps, international energy trade

Nuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlier Because of large learning rates for the new

technologies, minimal costs.


More on Infrastructure

decentralised power production, to use local renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP)

more investments in demand-side efficiency, less in energy supply, after transition phase 2000-2030

gas demand stable until 2025, then decline hydrogen – fuel cell systems for transport and to

replace gas where local renewables insufficient some gas networks can be used for hydrogen heat networks to remain in densely built areas


Vision 2050simple spread-sheet model

Based on energy balance Trends for

RE-supply, energy consumption, other fuels 1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval

2002 Denmark, Slovakia and EU2003 Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)

TABLE 1 Fuel

Year 2000Oil products Coal &

Coke

Natural

gas 1)

PJ Crude oilOrimul-sion

Petro-coke

Fueloil+waste oil

Diesel+heatingoil

Petrol+kerosene Jet fuel LPG

Refinary gas

Other oil products

Primary Production 764,53 310,30Klimakorrektion (forbrug) 0,86 0,57 5,15 0,01 0,08 0,05 3,53 6,59Refineries (conversion to end products) - 346,27 69,78 139,19 99,76 21,59 8,06 15,56 0,25Import / export (incl. bunkring and international flights) - 416,62 33,54 5,67 - 61,31 9,26 - 14,89 - 18,56 - 4,66 23,35 158,43 - 120,68Net storage, reuse and statistical difference - 1,64 0,61 1,12 11,05 1,97 2,97 0,06 0,10 - 1,50 7,49 - 3,11Total Net supply - 0,00 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,57 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10Oil, coal and gas sector

Exploitation own consumption, flaring 25,03Refinaries own consumption 1,27 13,63 10,07

Electricity and District heating stations 1,60 1,09 0,04 2,83District heating sector Geothermal stations

Condensing power stations 0,33 0,05 20,30 0,01Cogeneration stations 35,01 4,55 0,31 1,98 136,67 90,89RE (solar, wind, hydro, wave, tidal)HydrogenGrid losses etc. 0,15

Final Energy consumption Non-energy purposes 12,03Transport Road 68,66 86,08 0,53

Rail 3,08 0,01Domestic aviation 0,05 1,94Navigation 1,51 3,37 0,00Defense 0,37 0,00 1,16

Production Farming etc. 0,01 2,03 24,62 0,14 0,23 1,23 3,81Manufacturing 6,76 8,34 8,95 0,10 1,83 11,16 33,46Construction 0,04 6,39 0,03 0,17 0,21

Service sector Private 0,01 0,26 3,38 0,02 0,06 4,29Public 0,01 0,12 2,00 0,01 0,06 2,09

Housheholds 0,01 0,04 33,29 1,40 0,70 0,05 30,33Final Energy consumption - total, ex. non-energy 6,79 12,34 154,10 87,85 3,09 3,58 12,43 74,19Total Consumption 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,56 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10

Specific CO2-emissions (ton CO2/PJ) 2), 3), 4), 5) 80.000 92.000 78.000 74.000 73.000 73.000 65.000 56.900 95.000 56.900CO2-emissions (million ton CO2) 2,80 0,62 1,57 11,51 6,41 0,23 0,23 0,89 16,10 10,99

TABLE 4Consumptions parameters

Net Heat consump Heat. Eff.

Fin. heat consump

Shareoil

Sharegas, coal, waste

Share

RE7)Shareelectricity

Sharedistrict h.

Sharetotal

mill. m2 Factor MJ/m2 Factor PJ % PJ % % % % % %Private service 49,9 100 0,49 100 24,4 83% 29,3 13% 20% 2% 3% 63% 100%Public service 38,9 100 0,36 100 14,0 90% 15,6 14% 13% 4% 2% 66% 100%

Households 1 (multifamily) 77,4 100 0,50 100 39,0 93% 42,1 6% 11% 0% 2% 80% 100%

Households 2 (detached) 165,0 100 0,56 100 93,2 80% 116,3 28% 22% 17% 6% 27% 100%

Farming, etc.8) 100 100 37,5 72% 13% 9% 6% 100%

Manufacturing8) 100 100 82,3 32% 54% 6% 8% 100%

Construction 8) 100 100 6,85 97% 3% 100%Total 330,0

Heated floorspace6) / ProductionSpecificconsumption

vision 2050 the change to a sustainable energy path by gunnar boye olesen, emil bedi & ann...

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