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ViEWS PREDICTING CONFLICT ViEWS: a political Violence Early Warning System Presentation to the SIWI World Water Week H˚ avard Hegre 1 1 Department of Peace and Conflict Research Uppsala University 29 August 2019 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022343319823860 1/4

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  • ViEWSPREDICTING CONFLICT

    ViEWS: a political Violence Early Warning SystemPresentation to the SIWI World Water Week

    Håvard Hegre1

    1Department of Peace and Conflict ResearchUppsala University

    29 August 2019https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022343319823860

    1 / 4

  • ViEWSPREDICTING CONFLICT

    ViEWS Forecasting task

    The forecasting task in ViEWS

    Forecast incidence of organizedpolitical violence

    Onset, continuation,deescalation

    36 months into the future

    Monthly updates

    All UCDP forms of violence:

    1 state-based armed conflict

    2 one-sided violence

    3 non-state conflict

    Maximal transparency

    Forecasts, one-sided violence, August 2019

    2 / 4

  • ViEWSPREDICTING CONFLICT

    Current predictions Geographic level

    Current predictions and predictors, geographic level

    Ensembles combining themes:

    Conflict history

    Natural geography (vegetation,resources)

    Social geography (populationdensity, remoteness, borders)

    Country-level factors

    Conflict historyDemographics (size, poverty)Economics (growth, oil)Political institutions

    New from October 2019, i.a.:

    Droughts

    Crisis Watch alerts

    Military coups

    Forecasts, state-based conflict, August 2019

    3 / 4

  • ViEWSPREDICTING CONFLICT

    Current predictions Changes in predictions

    Change in predictions from July 2019 to August 2019, sb

    Increased risk (red) in i.a.

    Egypt

    Liberia

    Madagascar

    Reduced risk (blue) in i.a.

    Ethiopia

    Cameroon

    Kenya4 / 4

    ViEWSForecasting task

    Current predictionsGeographic levelChanges in predictions


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