· web vieworiginal robot designers and suppliers who market robots as a branded product;...

IndustriALL Europe Cecimo EUnited Ceemet

Study to anticipate the consequences of environmental sustainability policies on employment and skills in the Machine tools and Robotics sector

Final Report 19 October 2016

Study to anticipate the consequences of environmental sustainability policies on employment and skills in the Machine tools & Robotics sector

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CONTENTS

1 Executive summary 42 Introduction 73 The Machine tools and Robotics sectors 9

3.1 Robotics 93.1.1 Structure of the sector...........................................................................................93.1.2 Main application markets.....................................................................................10

3.2 Machine-tools 113.2.1 Structure of the sector.........................................................................................113.2.2 Main application markets.....................................................................................13

4 Methodology 144.1 Qualitative analysis of technology trends and future skills needs 15

4.1.1 Step 1: Policy mapping and identification of drivers and market opportunities.. .154.1.2 Step 2: Interviews to forecast technology trends and related future skills needs21

4.2 Quantitative analysis of changes in employment 225 Results of the analysis 25

5.1 Key technology trends resulting from sustainability policies 255.1.1 Robotics...............................................................................................................25

5.1.1.1 Technological trends in the robotics sector..................................................255.1.1.2 Light weighting.............................................................................................255.1.1.3 Energy efficiency optimization......................................................................255.1.1.4 Smaller robots..............................................................................................265.1.1.5 Refurbishment and reprogramming of robots...............................................265.1.1.6 Robots in precision farming..........................................................................275.1.1.7 Robots in waste sorting................................................................................285.1.1.8 Other trends.................................................................................................29

5.1.2 Machine tools sector............................................................................................305.1.2.1 Technological trends in the machine tools industry......................................305.1.2.2 Machine tools light weighting.......................................................................325.1.2.3 Lower consumption of lubricants..................................................................325.1.2.4 Machine power management.......................................................................335.1.2.5 Application markets and the impact on the machine tools industry.............33

5.2 Future skills needs 345.2.1 Programming.......................................................................................................345.2.2 (Big) data analytics..............................................................................................355.2.3 Material sciences.................................................................................................355.2.4 Advanced sensors...............................................................................................355.2.5 Energy management...........................................................................................365.2.6 Environmental management................................................................................365.2.7 Mechanical Engineering......................................................................................385.2.8 Eco-Design and maintenance.............................................................................38


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5.2.9 Green business model management...................................................................385.2.10 Knowledge of end-user requirements in new markets........................................38

5.3 Employment changes395.3.1 Machine tools sector............................................................................................395.3.2 Robotics sector....................................................................................................405.3.3 Sensitivity analysis..............................................................................................425.3.4 Summarized results.............................................................................................42

6 Conclusions 446.1 Future technology trends and related skills needs 446.2 Changes in employment 466.3 Other insights 47

7 Policy recommendations 48Glossary 56


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1 Executive summary

The report outlines the consequences of sustainability policies for skills and employment in the European machine tools and robotics sectors. It is part of a project commission by industriAll European Trade Union, Cecimo, EUnited, and Ceemet, and financed through a grant by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion under the heading ‘Support to social dialogue’. The aim of the report is to identify policy recommendations that can facilitate a smooth transition to sustainability in the machine tools and robotics sector.

The starting point of the analysis was a mapping of sustainability policies that are likely to affect the industrial sector in general and the machine tools and robotics sectors in particular. The studied policy areas included energy and climate change policies, circular economy and resource efficiency policies, eco-design and eco-innovation, and other relevant sectoral policies. Based on this mapping, a number of market opportunities arising from sustainability policies were identified, most notably in precision farming and waste sorting for the robotics sector. The further analysis was split into a qualitative and quantitative part. In the qualitative part, 27 interviews with stakeholders1 from the machine tools and robotics sectors were carried out in order to identify technological trends induced by sustainability policies and related changes in skills needs. In the quantitative part, the effects of sustainability policies on employment were modelled through input-output-analysis.

The qualitative analysis showed that a number of (technological) trends are likely to arise or be spurred by sustainability policies. In the robotics sector these is light weighting, energy efficiency optimization, smaller robots, refurbishment and reprogramming of robots, robots in precision farming, robots in waste sorting, offering more services, and integrating sustainability concerns more strongly into operational processes. For the machine tools sector, the main trends are (also) light weighting, lower consumption of lubricants, and machine power management. Based on these trends, a number of future skills needs were identified, most importantly: programming, (big) data analytics, material sciences, advanced sensors applications, mechanical engineering, environmental management, energy management, and green business model management.2 These skill needs mostly refer to highly skilled specialists (e.g. engineers, programmers) who are designing and building the robots and machine tools. The interviews did not provide evidence that the skill needs of lower skilled workers who actually connect machine tools and robots would be altered significantly. Table 1 shows how these skills needs relate to the identified technology trends.

1 Including companies, trade unions, vocational training professionals, academic and other sectoral experts2 Some skills needs are the same for the robotics and machine tools sector, while others are unique to one sector.


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Table 1: skills needs by technology trend

Technology Trends

Robotics Machine tools

Light-weighting

Energy efficiency optimization

Smaller robots

Refurbishment of robots

Reprogramming of robots

Robots in precision farming

Robots in waste sorting

Life-Cycle Assessment

Dry Lubrication or MQL

Light-weighting

Power management

Skill

s

Mechanical engineeringProgramming

(Big) data analyticsEnvironmental managementEnergy managementMaterial sciencesAdvanced sensorsGreen Business Model Management

The quantitative analysis showed that sustainability policies in general are anticipated to have a marginally negative effect on the employment in the machine tools and robotics sectors, but to trigger a strong decrease in carbon emissions. However, this is to be cautiously interpreted, as there are many variables in assessing the effects of sustainability policies, especially given the 15 years horizon and indirect (highly dissipated) effects such as light-weighing. In the case of global implementation of sustainability policies (one of three scenarios), a reduction of 9.000 jobs, equivalent to circa only 3% of all jobs in the two sectors, by 2030 was calculated, compared to the projected employment in 2030 with the current set of policies (to be compared with carbon emissions being reduced by 27% when comparing the same two scenarios). This trend is explained by the relative decline in the energy sector and a further shift to the service-oriented economy under stringent sustainability policies. Furthermore, the increasing focus on the eco-design of products means that consumers would buy less durables and spend more on repairing services. This leads to an overall reduction of the industrial sectors in production volume and a rise for service providers.No significant difference in employment effects was observed between a scenario in which Europe alone implements sustainability policies and a scenario in which sustainability policies are implemented globally. However, this can probably be attributed to the fact that border adjustment measures were adopted (e.g. a border tax) to help to maintain the competitive position of the European industries in the scenario in which Europe alone implements sustainability policies. Furthermore, the results indicate unequivocally that new market opportunities arising from sustainability policies are crucial for the creation of new jobs in the


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sectors. The new opportunities created in the robotics sector through the rise of precision farming and new uses of robots in waste recycling are expected to create around 4.300 new robotics jobs in Europe.

The results of the analytical work show that much can be gained by putting in place the right policies. Implementing well-targeted R&D&I and skills policies will help the two sectors to mitigate the negative effects of sustainability policies and reap the benefits of newly arising market opportunities.


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2 Introduction

The recent United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) held in Paris powerfully illustrated that the global economy is at the beginning of a transitional phase towards more sustainability. The future economy will be more resource-efficient and less carbon-intensive. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, minimizing environmental pressures (e.g. water and air pollution), maintaining biodiversity and establishing a true circular economy will be key areas for action. While these adjustments are necessary to maintain the basis of human civilisation on the planet as we know it, they will also require a major transformation of the way our economies function. Without doubt there will be winners and losers in this shift towards greater sustainability. Some industries, such as renewable energy production or environmental technologies, are likely to profit, while other sectors, such as the coal sector, are already now in the process of declining.

Much attention has been devoted to identifying the effects of possible sustainability policies on our economies. Large European projects, such as EMInInn, DESIRE, Carbon-Cap, or POLFREE are only a few examples to mention. By studying how sustainability policies will affect the economy and employment in particular, policy makers hope to be able to take counter measures to mitigate the any undesirable side effects of sustainability policies. In fact there is a lot policy makers can do in order to ensure a “smooth” transition to sustainability. Firstly, they can design sustainability policies in such a way that they ensure a level playing field internationally. Secondly, they can stimulate the economy to invest in those sectors that are likely to profit from the shift towards sustainability. Thirdly, they can provide the right framework conditions, for example by providing a skilled work force or investments in public research, that enable companies to re-orientate themselves and cope with the transformation.

This study has the overarching objective to identify policy recommendations to facilitate a smooth transition to sustainability in the machine tools and robotics sectors. It has been commissioned by industriAll European Trade Union, as coordinator, Cecimo and EUnited, as co-applicants, and Ceemet as associate organization. It is financed through a grant by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion under the heading “Support to social dialogue”. The machine tools and robotics sectors were chosen because of their importance to the European manufacturing sector. The study focuses on future skills needs and expected employment changes induced by sustainability polices in the two sectors in particular. The study has a pilot character, meaning that similar studies investigating other sectors could be envisaged in the future. These could greatly benefit from the methodology developed in this project.

The study is carried out in the following three phases:1) anticipating the consequences of environmental sustainability policies on employment

and skills in the machine tool & robotics sectors;


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2) defining the concrete content of a smooth transition to sustainability in the sectors and the means to leverage sustainability policies to improve the sectors’ long-term skills and technology-based competitiveness;

3) recommending public policies aiming at the sectors’ long-term skills and technology-based competitiveness, and at its smooth transition to sustainability.


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3 The Machine tools and Robotics sectors

3.1 Robotics

3.1.1 Structure of the sector

The European robotics sector is not comprised of a homogeneous mass of companies, but of a variety of several distinctly different types of companies; where each type has a specific position in the robotics value chain. Based on the study ‘A Helping Hand for Europe: The Competitive Outlook for the EU Robotics Industry’3 (2010) the following types of companies can be identified:

Original robot designers and suppliers who market robots as a branded product; Suppliers of standard components (e.g. sensors, motors, actuators, electronics) who

provides parts to robot producers; Suppliers of specialised components (e.g. laser welding applications); Systems integration specialists who integrate robots in a wider system (e.g. in an

automobile plant); Companies providing other services around robotics (e.g. refurbishment of robots); Software suppliers.

A rough overview of the position of each of these types of companies in the robotics value chain is depicted in figure 1 below. To obtain a broad overview of the impact of sustainability policies on the whole robotics sector, companies of different types were interviewed.

3 See http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC61539.pdf


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http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC61539.pdf

Figure 1: Position of different types of companies in robotics value chain (TNO adaptation based on IPTS report)

R&D and IPR

Manufacturing

Marketing

Aftersales

Systems integration

Testing and correction

After sales

Basic robot manufacturing

Integration of robot in operationalenvironment

Original robot designers and

suppliers

Suppliers of standard

components

Companies providing other

services

Systems integration specialists

Software suppliers

Suppliers of specialised

components

The robotics value chain

3.1.2 Main application markets

In recent years a shift has been observed in the application areas of robots. While historically the majority of robots were employed in industrial manufacturing, an increasing market for service robotics is emerging (e.g. robots in households or robots in health care). The study ‘A Helping Hand for Europe: The Competitive Outlook for the EU Robotics Industry’4 (2010) identifies the following application markets as being the most relevant for the European robotics sector:

Medical and care; Security; Transport; Industrial manufacturing; Food processing; Hazardous environments; Agriculture; Domestic service;

4 See http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC61539.pdf


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http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC61539.pdf

Professional service, and Toys.

It should be noted that some application markets are more strongly affected by sustainability policies than others. For example the agricultural and manufacturing sector have a much higher impact on the environment and are therefore more strongly targeted by sustainability policies than other sectors that have smaller impacts, such as domestics services or medical and care.

3.2 Machine-tools

3.2.1 Structure of the sector

Providing a definition of the machine tools sector is not an easy task because there is a limited common understanding of a machine tool, and standards and legislation do not provide an unambiguous definition of “machine tools”. The Energy-Using Product Group Analysis - Lot 5 on Machine tools and related machinery5 provides a useful definition based on the engineering consideration that cutting, shaping and joining are typically those technologies employed by machine tools, together with economic classifications, standards on process technologies, and taking into account the existing legal framework (the Machinery Directive, 2006/42/EC). The study defines a machine tool as a:

“stationary or transportable assembly, which is neither portable by hand nor mobile, and which is dependent on energy input (such as electricity from the grid or stand-alone / back-up power sources, hydraulic or pneumatic power supply, but not solely manually operated) when in operation, and consists of linked parts or components, at least one of which moves, and which are joined together for a specific application, which is the geometric shaping of workpieces made of arbitrary materials using appropriate tools and forming, cutting, physico-chemical processing or joining technologies, the use of which results in a product of defined reproducible geometry, and intended for professional use”.

From the study mentioned above it emerges that there the machine tools industry is not standardised in terms of environmental performance. This is a fundamental characteristic of the sector and it regards three main areas of manufacturing:

Inputs; Outputs; Controls.

5 Fraunhofer, Energy-Using Product Group Analysis - Lot 5 Machine tools and related machinery Executive Summary – Final Version, Sustainable Industrial Policy - Building on the Ecodesign Directive - Energy-using Product Group Analysis/2, 2012


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These three domains represent the components of what can be considered a closed system, as reported in the figure below.

Figure 2: Factors influencing the environmental impact of a machine tool

Source: own adaptation from G. Campatelli, Reducing the environmental footprint of machining operations, 2013

The inputs include the elements that machine tools need to operate on a specific material through the turning process. This process can be controlled first of all by switching among power use modes (such as on, off, stand by), as well as by modifying the speed of cutting and feed, the depth of the cut, the amount of lubricant used. By interacting in this way on the machine, it is possible to obtain different finished goods, with different scraps and exhaust fluids. If we try to classify machine tools based on the ways in which they can used and controlled based on the elements specified above, it emerges that there the machine tools sector is not standardised. Specifically there are still many differences in marking/ labelling of materials/ components (e.g. identification of hazardous substances), power consumption measurements (machines and modules), power modes, power management, consumption of lubricants (measurements, assessment), consumption of compressed air (measurements), and process waste generation measurement including yield losses6.

In the field of machine tools design several studies have been carried out in order to evaluate the environmental impact of certain combinations of materials and/or technical solutions, thanks to the development of structured and database-based tools such the LCA (Life Cycle Assessment, defined by the ISO 14000 standards) and following LCM (Life Cycle Management). The environmental impact of a machining process could be studied as a close

6 Fraunhofer, Energy-Using Product Group Analysis - Lot 5 Machine tools and related machinery Executive Summary – Final Version, Sustainable Industrial Policy - Building on the Ecodesign Directive - Energy-using Product Group Analysis/2, 2012


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system. The factors that must be taken into account are energy, raw materials, coolant, tools while in the output must be considered the scraps and the exhaust fluids7.

Many studies have been focused on the environmental impact of lubrication in the machining process. One important result which has recently come to light is that dry lubrication decreases the total power consumption of machine tools. Dry lubrication uses more power for cutting (about +11% compared to flooded lubrication) but eliminates the need for power in the lubrication system (pumps, filters), thus resulting in an overall decrease in power consumption.

From the interviews conducted with companies in the sector, academic and industry experts it emerges that the machine tools sector is populated by a few very large multinational market leaders, surrounded by thousands of small enterprises. Companies can also be differentiated based on their product strategy. Experts of the sector clarified indeed that some companies offer a bespoke product for their customers, designed on specific technical requirements specified by the client and dedicated to a specific use within the customer production process. Other companies, on the other hand, have a standard range of products.

The non-standardisation of the sector is of importance for the objectives of this study of identifying technology trends and skills needs because specific technologies, technology developments, market opportunities and drivers, skills needs vary substantially across the sector. This feature of the sector means that it is not possible to perform a rigid classification of application markets, technology trends, skills needs, which could be valid for the entirety of the sector. In order to obtain the results specified in the present study, the team prompted the interviewees in order to acquire data that could be valid horizontally for the various typologies of machine tools companies.

3.2.2 Main application markets

Machine tools are widely used in all manufacturing sectors in which production processes include the modification of metal, plastic, wood, stone, ceramics and also new materials. It is hence very difficult to draft a list of application markets which does not include all industrial sectors. However, from the interviews conducted in the context of the present study it is possible to state that the most important markets for machine tools are:

Automotive; Railways; Aviation; Medical; Energy production; Civil infrastructure.

7 G. Campatelli, Reducing the environmental footprint of machining operations, 2013


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4 Methodology

Anticipating the consequences of policies is complex, as many interfering factors might influence the future and therewith make it difficult to link certain effects to a specific policy. It is therefore important to have a clear understanding of the different factors that influence the variables to be observed, which are in this case technological trends, skills needs and employment in the European machine tools and robotics sectors. Figure 3 presents the analytical framework adopted for the study.

Figure 3: analytical framework

Forecast: Machine-tool & Robotics sector

Environmental sustainability

policies- E.g. energy and climate

policies, circular economy policies

Application markets

- E.g. Automotive, waste sector

Other factors - E.g. Global economic

conditions, technological breakthroughs

Indirect effects

Direct effects

Employment

Technologies

Skills

Qualitative analysis

Quatitative analysis

As shown in the model we differentiate between direct and indirect effects of environmental sustainability policies on the machine tools and robotics sectors. Indirect effects (e.g. additional demand created for robots by more stringent sustainability requirements in agriculture) might even generate greater impacts than sustainability policies directly targeting the machine tools and robotics sectors, as they can create substantial shifts in demand patterns.

Moreover, it should be noted that skills needs and employment in the machine tools and robotics sectors are influenced by many other factors, which range from global economic conditions (e.g. another financial crisis) to technological breakthroughs that are hard to predict. The study focuses solely on changes in the machine tool and robotics sectors that are to some extent induced by environmental sustainability policies. The consequences of other major trends, such as the digitalisation of industry (“Industrie 4.0”) and additive manufacturing, that will massively impact these sectors, were not examined. This is because these developments


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happen autonomously, and are not caused by environmental policies per se, and are therefore outside of the scope of the study.

To forecast future technology trends and related skills needs, a qualitative analysis, based on a literature review and interviews, was employed. To predict changes in employment a quantitative analysis based on input-output modelling was carried out. The methodology used for the qualitative and quantitative analysis are described in the sections below.

4.1 Qualitative analysis of technology trends and future skills needs

The objective of the qualitative analysis was to identify future technology trends and skills needs in the machine tools and robotics sectors that are likely to arise in the future due to the implementation of sustainability policies. Below the methodology of the qualitative analysis is described. The results of the qualitative analysis are presented in sections 5.1 and 5.2.

4.1.1 Step 1: Policy mapping and identification of drivers and market opportunities

A mapping of current and possible future EU environmental sustainability policies was carried out to serve as basis for anticipating technology trends and skills needs. The mapping focused on sustainability policies that are most likely to affect the robotics and machine tools sectors. It included a literature review concerning policies that are already in place and expected to be adopted in the near future, and a number of interviews with policy experts from academia and the European Commission to identify possible long-term policy trends.

Figure 4: Policy mapping

Energy and climate change policies

• EU climate change targets• EU Emission Trading

System • Carbon taxes and

mechanisms for border adjustment

• Energy Efficiency Plan • Energy Efficiency

Directive • Direct funding

programmes (e.g. NER 300, SILC I and II, the SET Plan)

Circular economy and resource efficiency

policies

• Circular Economy Package • Initiatives in the area of

of standardisation and information provision (e.g. ‘product passports’, the Product Environmental Footprint, the Organisational Environmental Footprint)

• EU waste legislation

Eco-design and eco-innovation policies

• Eco-Design Directive• Eco-innovation action

plan• Ecolabel• EU Eco-Management and

Audit Scheme (EMAS)

Sector policies

• Sustainability policiestargeting the automotivesector

• Sustainability policiestargeting the energy sector, especially energygeneration and distribution


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Some of the identified policies are more likely to have a significant impact on the robotics and machine tools sectors. In particular, the Eco-design of Energy related Products Directive 2009/125/EC is a framework directive that primarily focuses on energy used by products. It sets minimum requirements for certain energy consuming products. The directive concerns the following categories of products8:

Products that have a volume of sales that exceeds 200,000 units per year throughout the internal European market (it is a cumulative total and not one calculated on an individual producer basis.

• Products that have a significant environmental impact within the internal market.• Products that present significant potential for improvement in environmental impact

without incurring excessive costs.

The objective is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other adverse environmental impacts throughout the life-cycle of a product with emphasis placed on the design and development stages of a product with a view to improving its energy efficiency.The Eco-design Directive provides with consistent EU-wide rules for improving the environmental performance of energy related products (ERPs) through eco-design. It prevents disparate national legislations on the environmental performance of these products from becoming obstacles to the intra-EU trade. This should benefit both businesses and consumers, by enhancing product quality and environmental protection and by facilitating free movement of goods across the EU.

Energy related products (the use of which has an impact on energy consumption) account for a large proportion of the energy consumption in the EU and include:

Energy-using products (EuPs), which use, generate, transfer or measure energy (electricity, gas, fossil fuel), such as boilers, computers, consumer electronics (specifically in their stand-by mode), televisions, transformers, industrial fans, industrial furnaces etc.

Other energy related products (ErPs) which do not use energy but have an impact on energy and can therefore contribute to saving energy, such as windows, insulation material, shower heads, taps etc.

The eco-design framework positively affects the European market, as confirmed by the interviews carried out. It creates a level plane field for all the products that are going to be put on the market, improving the competition levels because it sets and clarifies a uniform set of rules for all the companies in a specific economic sector. Furthermore, the market is pushed towards more efficient products and companies have incentives to develop better and more efficient products, knowing that they will have a competitive edge in a receptive market. During the interview with DG Energy the study team confirmed that these positive effects can be quantified. The eco-design framework creates benefits accountable for 25 billion € for the industry, taking into account manufacturing, wholesale and retail.

8 The transports sector is excluded from the scope of the directive


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The next phase of Eco-design will happen during 2015-2017. This will include setting the priorities for developing new product standards. The European Commission has commissioned a study to look at potential options: candidates include TVs, kettles, solar panels, and lifts among others. Smart phones are also on the list but in informal discussion the Commission has stated it is unlikely to regulate since there are strong market drivers (focused on the consumer desire for long battery life) for efficiency improvements. This has been confirmed during the interviews carried out with DG Energy and DG Environment. The new 2015-2017 working plan should be published by the end of 2015.

Another policy area which influences the two sectors will be the Circular economy package. The Circular Economy Package consists of an EU Action Plan for the Circular Economy that establishes a concrete and ambitious programme of action, with measures covering the whole cycle: from production and consumption to waste management and the market for secondary raw materials. The proposed actions included in the new package should contribute to greater recycling and re-use and bring benefits for both the environment and the economy. The new package has been published in December 2015 by the European Commission and it includes a number of targets, which are outlined in the box below.

Box 1: Targets proposed in the new Circular Economy Package Better product design: increased product requirements under the Eco-design Directive that makes

products more durable, and easier to repair and recycle. As a first step, the Commission will propose rules for easier and safer dismantling, reusing and recycling of electronic displays. This comes on top of existing energy efficiency requirements for products, which by 2020 will bring savings of €465 per year, per household on their energy bills

Incentives: the Commission will propose to differentiate financial contributions paid by producers in extended producer responsibility schemes based on the end-of-life costs of their products.

Improved production process: promotion of best practices in a range of industrial sectors through Best Available Techniques Reference documents (BREFs) for various industrial sectors.

Innovative industrial processes: clarified rules on by-products and on end-of-waste status to support the development of industrial symbiosis – a process by which the waste of one company can become the resource of another company. Financial support is provided through H2020 and the Cohesion Policy Funds.

A common EU target for recycling 65% of municipal waste by 2030; A common EU target for recycling 75% of packaging waste by 2030; A binding landfill target to reduce landfill to maximum of 10% of all waste by 2030; A ban on landfilling of separately collected waste; Promotion of economic instruments to discourage landfilling ; Simplified and improved definitions and harmonised calculation methods for recycling rates throughout

the EU; Concrete measures to promote re-use and stimulate industrial symbiosis - turning one industry's by-

product into another industry's raw material; Economic incentives for producers to put greener products on the market and support recovery and

recycling schemes (e.g. for packaging, batteries, electric and electronic equipment, vehicles).

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/circular-economy/index_en.htm

Furthermore, policies in the energy and climate areas are also very important. The EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is the core policy in this domain, though until now it has fallen short of delivering the promises it held. The dip in economic activity in the EU in the


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http://ec.europa.eu/environment/circular-economy/index_en.htm

aftermath of the crisis resulted in a massive surplus of CO2 allowances, leading to low CO2 prices, which provide only a weak incentive for companies to reduce emissions.9 Though an extensive reform of the EU ETS is underway with the objective to stabilise CO2 prices at a sufficiently high level to spur investment in cleaner energy.10 Hence, by 2020 the EU ETS will probably have been ‘fixed’, providing strong incentives for companies to reduce CO2 emissions. If such a positive development continues it seems likely that by 2030 the EU ETS will have incentivised many companies to invest in low-carbon technologies. Moreover, if the reform of the EU ETS is successful, it is expected that materials with a high carbon-content (e.g. steel, iron, aluminium) will become more expensive. Though this might also depend on whether the EU will adopt border adjustment measures to avoid carbon leakages.

The introduction of a carbon tax has been discussed several times at EU level as a mean to internalise the (social) costs of carbon emissions into the price of a product. In several EU countries, such as Denmark, Finland, Germany, and the Netherlands, energy taxes based partly on carbon content have been adopted. However, the political appetite at EU level to start a new attempt to introduce an EU-wide uniform carbon tax is low, given the focus on the ‘growth and jobs’ agenda at the moment. Moreover, taxation is historically a competence of Member States; whether EU action in this field will be possible in the future depends very much on the general development of the EU as such (e.g. whether the European integration process will continue or stall).

Whether policies aiming to reduce CO2 emissions through market incentives, such as the EU ETS or carbon taxation, are compatible with the competiveness of the European industry and hence politically feasible, depends very much on whether mechanisms for border adjustment will be adopted to avoid carbon leakages. While border adjustment mechanisms, such us levying a border tax on imports based on their carbon-content and paying this tax back for exports, have long been considered incompatible with WTO rules, recent analysis suggests that they are not in principle in conflict with trade law.11 New attempts by the EU to introduce border adjustment mechanisms are therefore thinkable, though such measures won’t be politically feasible without the buy-in of China and the US. Hence, much would depend on negotiations with these two countries.

Furthermore there is a range of policies in place at EU level to increase energy efficiency, such as the Energy Efficiency Plan (2011) and the Energy Efficiency Directive (2012). As about 20% of the EU's primary energy consumption is accounted for by the industry, many specific measures to increase energy efficiency in the industrial sector are envisaged in the Energy Efficiency Plan. 12 These include:

9 https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/opinion/co2-emissions-trading-overhaul-will-drive-eu-towards-low-carbon-economy10 https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/opinion/co2-emissions-trading-overhaul-will-drive-eu-towards-low-carbon-economy11 http://www.pacbiztimes.com/2015/06/05/carbon-tax-right-policy-for-tri-counties/12 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:441bc7d6-d4c6-49f9-a108-f8707552c4c0.0002.03/DOC_1&format=PDF


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Removing obstacles to investment in energy efficient technologies for SMEs by encouraging the member states to provide them with information (for example about legislative requirements, criteria for subsidies to upgrade machinery, availability of training on energy management and of energy experts) and develop appropriate incentives (such as tax rebates, financing for energy efficiency investments, or funding for energy audits);

Building capacity on energy management in SMEs through facilitating the exchange of best practices and the set-up of energy efficiency projects;

Introducing mandatory energy audits for large companies; Introducing an energy management system (for example as set out in standard EN

16001); Developing energy performance requirements for standard industrial equipment.

It is expected that energy efficiency policies will continue and be strengthened in the short and long-term. However, under the new Commission it seems likely that market incentives will be prioritised (such as the EU ETS), while classic ‘command and control’ regulations (such as the introduction of mandatory energy audits) will be viewed more critically.

As it is impossible to estimate the exact impact of each of the examined policy initiatives on technologies and skills in the machine tools and robotics sectors, especially because companies themselves generally do not know the policies and their (potential) effects on them, it was decided to “translate” the policy trends into concrete drivers13 and market opportunities that can be recognized by companies. For example, while companies generally do not know how a carbon tax would affect them, they can relate much more clearly to how an external driver to use less carbon-intensive materials would affect the technologies they use and relevant skills needed to use that technologies. Box 2 depicts the drivers felt by companies as identified by the study team.

Box 2: Drivers and market opportunities for machine tools and robotics companies resulting from European environmental sustainability policies (differentiated by life-cycle stages)

The list below outlines a number of drivers that “push” machine tools and robotics companies toward more sustainable behaviour, as result of European environmental sustainability policies. These drivers are likely to intensify in the future.

Product design

Design products that require less material inputs (e.g. light weighting) Design products that replace carbon-intensive materials with alternative materials (e.g. use less steel,

iron, aluminium) Design products that use secondary or recycled materials Design more durable products Design products that are easier to maintain and repair Design products that can be easily recycled (e.g. refrain from using hazardous substances in products) Design products that are more energy efficient Design products with improved power management Design products with increased and improved power modes

13 A driver can be understood as an external influence on a company to change its behavior in a certain way (e.g. to change the properties of a product series)


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Design products that consume less lubricants Design products that consume less compressed air and less water Design products in response to specific changes in the demand (for different technical capabilities)

resulting from legislative developments

Production process

Reduce energy use during production Reduce material use during production Avoid waste along the production chain Reduce the use of lubricants Reduce the use of compressed air and less water

Use and maintenance

Enable consumers to monitor and adjust the energy-efficiency of products Provide guidance to consumers on how to use products in an environmentally friendly way Facilitate the maintenance and repair of products (e.g. use remote monitoring, offer repair services)

End of life

Attach labels to products that specify which components and materials content, and how it can be disassembled and recycled at the end of its life

Offer disposal services to consumers or participate in schemes that offer such services (e.g. Extended Producer Responsibility schemes)

Other options

Conduct Life-Cycle Assessments (LCA) to assess the environmental impact of robots and machine tools

Carry out energy audits Introduce an energy management system (for example as set out in standard EN 16001) Use sustainability criteria in purchasing Introduce non-financial reporting related to sustainability criteria Offer products for renting / leasing Participate in environmental footprint schemes for products and companies

For the robotics sector, two key market opportunities arising from sustainability policies were identified. These lay in the areas of waste sorting and precision farming (see box below).

Box 3. Market opportunities arising from sustainability policies for the robotics sector


An area where market opportunities could arise based on the EU’s sustainability policies is agriculture. Making agriculture more sustainable, e.g. by using less fertilisers which produce greenhouse gases, has been on the European agenda for several years. Mainstreaming precision farming has been identified as a promising option by the European Commission to reduce the use of fertilisers.14 Robots can play an important role in precision farming, for example in monitoring crop health and applying fertilisers to only those areas where needed. Already now the EU is funding research projects15 to tap the potential of robotics for agriculture. Hence, the domain of agriculture, and precision farming in specific, bears considerable market opportunities, given that robots are developed further to meet technical requirements.

14 https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/precision-agriculture-opportunity-eu-farmers15 See http://robohub.org/2-agricultural-robotics-projects-funded-under-latest-horizon-2020/


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EU waste policy dates back to 1975 and is one of the success stories of EU policy making, having pushed Member States towards increasingly environmentally-friendly waste management. Also in the future the EU is likely to continue to tighten waste legislation and raise recycling and reuse targets. As manual sorting of waste is expensive and not an attractive task for humans, waste processing companies are increasingly looking to robotics to take over the waste sorting process. However, whether they are actually significant market opportunities in the area of waste sorting is highly uncertain. While some waste sorting companies express a strong interest in waste sorting robots16, other sector experts assume that robots itself will only play a minor role in waste sorting in the future (as there will rather be a trend towards fully automatic sorting pants instead of robots).

4.1.2 Step 2: Interviews to forecast technology trends and related future skills needs

A large number of interviews with stakeholders from the two sectors were then carried out to find out how the drivers and market opportunities stemming from sustainability policies would affect technology trends and skills needs in the future. In total 27 experts were interviewed from different organisations, including companies, trade unions, research institutes, universities, and industry associations. Generally, interviewees were first asked to identify technology trends. Thereafter, the interviewees were asked to give their view on potential consequences of these technology trends on future skills needs of workers of the respective sector.

It should be noted that most interviewed companies and other experts were not able to relate specific sustainability policies to future technology trends and possible changes in skills needs. Instead, they could relate much better to the drivers and market opportunities identified by the study team and estimate their effect on technology trends and skills needs. As a result, the technological trends and future skills needs presented in this report can to a large extent not be clearly related to European sustainability policies. Instead they are a rather a result of a combination of numerous factors, such as an increasing focus on sustainability in policy making (at EU, national and regional level), greater awareness in society of the finite nature of natural resources, market forces (e.g. client demand, possibilities for cost reduction), and general economic and technological trends.

The overall approach to the qualitative analysis with the objective to identify future skills needs is depicted in figure 5 below.

16 For example the company ZenRobotics has developed a waste sorting robot. To see how their waste sorting robot works see this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAf_iVuZ-vU


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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAf_iVuZ-vU

Figure 5: approach to the identification of future skills needs

InterviewsPolicy mapping

Future sustainability

policies

Drivers & market

opportunities

Technological trends

Future skills needs

4.2 Quantitative analysis of changes in employment

The goal of the quantitative analysis was to identify changes in employment that are likely to occur in the future due to the implementation of sustainability policies. Below the methodology of the quantitative analysis is described. The results of the quantitative analysis are presented in section 4.3.

In order to perform the quantitative assessment of the effects environmental sustainability policies could have on employment we are relying on the Input-Output (IO) Analysis. In the framework of IO analysis, it is assumed that an economy consists of a number of productive sectors, and each sector requires inputs from other sectors in order to produce its outputs. The inter-sectoral economic transactions are recorded in an Input-Output Table (IOT), which represents interconnections between the economic sectors within and possibly between different geographic regions. Via these interlinkages, the IO analysis shows how policy effects from one directly affected sector propagate, or multiply, through other sectors of the economy17.

The underlying database for the IO analysis in this study is the global, detailed multi-regional Environmentally-Extended-Input-Output database EXIOBASE v2.218. EXIOBASE is a unique database resulting from several FP6 and FP7 projects (EXIOPOL, CREEA, and DESIRE) in which TNO collaborated. The required level of details on machine tools and robotics sectors has been added to the database based on output, trade and employment statistics from Eurostat and on the Global Machine Tool Outlook 2014 and World Robotics 2015 reports.

The Input-Output analysis is a standard technique used for policy impact assessment. The key advantage of the IO analysis is that the working of the model and the results are usually quite transparent. With the development of environmentally extended and energy detailed IO databases, such as EXIOBASE, the IO-based methods are widely used for assessment of environmental and energy policies.

17 For further details on Input-Output analysis see Miller, R.E. and P.D. Blair (2009), “Input-output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions”, 2nd edition, Cambridge University Press, New York.18 http://www.exiobase.eu/


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The effects of sustainability policies on employment in the two sectors are modelled for three deliberately contrasted scenarios:

Scenario A: the EU adopts only to a very limited extent environmental sustainability policies. The main characteristics of this scenario are low rate of EU funding for low-carbon technologies and green public procurement, not functioning EU Emission Trading System (ETS), absence of ambitious targets for circular economy and resource efficiency, decreasing support for eco-design and eco-innovation. The Rest of the world (RoW) keeps its environmental sustainability policies of 2015 unchanged.

Scenario B: the EU adopts to a large extent environmental sustainability policies. This scenario is characterized by EU financial support of low-carbon technologies, reformed EU ETS, introduction of EU-wide carbon tax, introduction of border adjustment mechanisms in order to keep the EU competitive position and avoid carbon leakage. Ambitious targets are set and reached for circular economy, eco-design and eco-innovation. RoW keeps its environmental sustainability policies of 2015 unchanged.

Scenario C: the EU adopts to a large extent environmental sustainability policies, as in scenario B. The rest of the world adopts environmental sustainability policies comparable to those of the EU. In short, this means increased cuts of CO2 emission, introduced or widened resource efficiency policies, financial support for sustainable industry.

Modelling the effects of sustainability policy packages is typically quite complex and involves changes in many sectors via different policy instruments, e.g. taxes, standards, efficiency requirements etc. Detailed modelling of these policy instruments goes beyond the scope of this study. However, in order to capture the global economic forces and changes in the demand for products of application markets we make use of the CGE modelling results of the FP7 project POLFREE19. The POLFREE project analysed resource efficiency and sustainability issues and the project team has considered a very similar set of scenarios. Box 4 presents a summary of POLFREE scenarios.

Box 4. Key elements of POLFREE scenarios

Scenarios in POLFREE project are represented in the form of policy packages aimed at reaching resource efficiency targets defined under alternative plausible, future socio-economic pathways until 2050.

In the scenario ‘Europe goes alone’ sustainability and resource efficiency policy measures are implemented only in the EU. Scenario ‘Global cooperation’ is characterized by international cooperation on environmental policy. The main policy measures and assumptions included in these scenarios are the following:

Reformed ETS and carbon tax for non-ETS sectors, boarder adjustment tax. Quota for renewable energy. Increase renovation rate leading to improved energy efficiency of buildings. Mandatory eco-design standards. Recycling quota for metals, non-metallic minerals and paper. Reduction of food waste by households and producers. CO2 intensity standards for cars and regulation of e-mobility in cities Stimulation of public transport.

19See http://www.polfree.eu/publications/publications-2014/integrated-scenario-interpretation, in particular D3.7bReport about integrated scenario interpretation EXIOMOD / LPJmL results from page 134


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The “baseline” scenario of the POLFREE project underpins the “Scenario A” of the present study. The “Europe goes alone” scenario of the POLFREE project supports the “Scenario B” of the present

study, while the “Global cooperation” scenario of the POLFREE project corresponds to the “Scenario C”.


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5 Results of the analysis

5.1 Key technology trends resulting from sustainability policies

5.1.1 Robotics 5.1.1.1 Technological trends in the robotics sector

The interviews highlight that several key technology trends in the robotics sector are induced or spurred by environmental sustainability policies. The two most important trends are light weighting and energy efficiency optimisation. In addition, a number of other trends were mentioned, such as building smaller robots and the refurbishment of robots. Considering that robotics is assimilated to automation, indirect but very profound and widespread effects will occur via light weighting, energy efficiency, but also recycling and recovery, product quality, durability, yields, less scrap (defective goods) etc. In certain specific sectors such as agriculture and waste management, new market opportunities could arise due to sustainability policies, which could influence the technological developments of robots. The following sections lists and describes the identified trends.

5.1.1.2 Light weighting

Designing lighter robots has been identified as key technological trend during the interviews. Lighter robots are generally more environmentally friendly, as heavier materials, which often have a bigger impact on the environment (e.g. iron), are replaced by lighter materials such as carbon fibre, composites, or aluminium. Another option to make robots lighter is to reduce the amount of material inputs all together. In practice, this will mean that in the future companies will experiment more with alternative materials, researching how the required functionalities of robots can be maintained while using lighter materials.

The shift towards light weighting is primarily driven by two factors: firstly, lighter robots require less energy to operate. As the application domains of robots, such as the automotive sector, have to increase energy efficiency, they also demand more energy-efficient robots. Secondly, the shift towards lighter robots is promoted by a general trend towards collaborative robots that work side-by-side with humans. Lighter robots are safer in human-robot interaction, because in a case of collision they are less likely to cause severe harm to humans. Another possible driver for a shift towards light weighting is that energy-intensive metals, such as aluminium and steel, might become more expensive in case that policies that internalise carbon prices (e.g. a carbon tax) are introduced.

5.1.1.3 Energy efficiency optimization


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Energy efficiency was mentioned as “huge topic” several times during the interviews. To make robots more energy-efficient several technological developments are expected. Firstly, robot producers will try to optimise the efficiency of electric circuits. The goal here is to minimise the loss of energy in the process between the first electric impulse that commands to carry out a movement and the actual performance of the movement. Secondly, there will be an increasing focus on energy efficiency monitoring and adjustment. For example, it will be more common to offer next to the physical robot an energy efficiency monitoring system to clients. Through this system the client (e.g. a car factory) receives real-time information on the energy consumption of its robot system. This information can be used by the client to reduce the performance of robots in non-peak times. Another option is that the robot system itself is equipped with a “smart software” which decides autonomously during which time slots energy consumption should be reduced. Additional improvements in robots to achieve higher energy efficiency are the use of more energy- efficient motors and the use of gears with less frictional losses.

Energy efficiency optimisation is driven by an increasing demand for more energy-efficient robots. It was mentioned during the interviews that especially in the automotive industry the pressure to be more energy-efficient is significant. This is a consequence of policies imposing minimal energy-efficiency requirements for vehicles and of higher prices for electricity (which in some countries, like Germany, are a consequence of a shift towards renewable sources and of the application of a price for carbon emissions in the electricity-producing sector).

5.1.1.4 Smaller robots

Some interviewees also mentioned a trend towards smaller robots, especially concerning industrial robots. Smaller robots have the advantage that they require less floor area and can therefore contribute to reducing the size of production plants. As the costs for the heating and lighting of buildings have increased during recent years, clients aim to reduce the floor area of their production plants and therefore also demand smaller robots.

5.1.1.5 Refurbishment and reprogramming of robotsExtending the life span of durable goods is currently being discussed in European policy circles as a potential measure to support the circular economy. The reason behind this is the concept of “embedded energy and materials” during the production of the existent stock of consumer and durable goods. The complete decommissioning of the existing stock is by definition a waste of resources. Interviewees presented conflicting views on whether there is a trend towards increasing refurbishment and reprogramming of robots extending their lifespan. The average lifespan of an industrial robot, such as those supplied by Fanuc, ABB, or KUKA, is twelve to fifteen years. A major overhaul generally takes place after half of the lifespan. Some interviewees perceived an increasing trend towards extending the lifespan far beyond the usual fifteen years. One interviewee, the owner of a robot refurbishment company, even had the vision that “robots don’t have to age anymore”. By regularly updating their hardware


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(critical mechanical, electric and electronic parts etc.) and software (operating system), the functionalities of robots could be constantly adapted to new tasks. Already now major robot manufacturers offer the refurbishment of robots and also sell used robots.

Regarding the software, industrial robots generally depend on manufacturer specific software, for reasons which include operational safety and other challenges typical of large scale continuous and dedicated applications. There are proponents of ‘open source software’ (for example the US Open Source Robotics Foundation ‘OSRF’), which some observers believe has potential in specialized areas in service robotics. However apart from the challenges of developing software to operate on industrial scales, interviewees noted that open source software solutions will need to overcome important barriers such as the absence of legal framework, and associated liability and guarantee problems.

Some interviewees also doubted the rise of refurbishment of robots, due to the fact that clients often prefer to buy new robots to avoid downtime in production. As one interviewee put it: “production is sacred”. Risking downtime in production processes that often run 24/7 by using older refurbished robots is therefore not an option for many industrial clients. Clients would rather pay more money for a new robot than purchase a less expensive second-hand robot that has a higher risk of downtime. One also has to keep in mind that an older robot does not include modern energy-optimisation measures and thus consumes more energy.

5.1.1.6 Robots in precision farming

Several interviewees mentioned the diffusion of precision farming (see Box 5) as a very important business opportunity for the robotics sector. Precision farming by mere definition offers great opportunities for sustainability via increases in materials and energy efficiency in agricultural activities. However, technological advances are needed to reap the benefits of this growing market. Using robots in agriculture is distinctly different from their application in manufacturing. Beyond the fact that robots in agriculture are mounted on vehicles (while industrial robots are most often fixed), the main difference is that the objects that the robots handle and work on are never identical in farming. Every plant, fruit or vegetable is unique, as they vary in shape, size, weight and many other features. There are already several examples of companies experimenting with agricultural robots, such as Valta (Agco) who has presented a ‘tractor of the future’.20

Box 5: Defining “precision farming”

There are many definitions for precision farming. A simple one defines precision farming as “using every acre within its capability and treat it according to its needs.”21 Another one defines precision farming as “a farming management concept based on observing and responding to inter and intra-field variations. Today, precision agriculture is about whole farm management with the goal of optimising returns on inputs while preserving resources. It relies on new technologies like satellite imagery, precision navigation (e.g. satellite-based GPS or

20 http://www.tuvie.com/valtra-robotrac-tractor-for-future-farms/21 http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb1043474.pdf


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Galileo, or low-cost inertial systems), information technology, and geospatial tools.”

Technologies that are likely to develop in this area due to precision farming are, among others: advanced sensing (including vision systems) to collect information on plant health and

soil conditions; software for data analytics and automated decision making to determine which

treatment should be applied to a certain area; advanced handling taking into account the specificities of each object; autonomous robots (including flying robots/drones) that are able to navigate fields

and farms safely. Though it should be considered that robots are only one element of smart farming (like robots are also only one element of Industry 4.0). It might rather be updated agricultural machinery (including GPS and different sensors) that is used in the future than a “classical” robot.

5.1.1.7 Robots in waste sorting

While not as firmly on the sector’s agenda as precision farming, the awareness of opportunities for robotics in waste sorting is increasing. The EU waste policy is likely to raise recycling and reuse targets for waste even further in the future. As manual sorting is expensive and not an attractive task for humans, waste processing companies are increasingly looking to robotics to take over the waste sorting process. However, whether there are actually significant market opportunities for robots in the area of waste sorting is highly uncertain. While some waste sorting companies express a strong interest in waste sorting robots as offered by ZenRobotics (see Box 6), other sector experts assume that robots themselves will only play a minor role in waste sorting in the future (as there will rather be a trend towards fully automatic sorting plants instead of robots). Also in the disassembly of cars robots might play a role in the future, even though this is still highly uncertain.

Box 6. Robots in waste sorting: the example of ZenRobotics

The Finnish company ZenRobotics has recently launched the “ZenRobotics Recycler”, “the first robotic waste sorting station in the world”. 22 This robotic recycler uses “multiple sensors (visible spectrum cameras, NIR, 3D laser scanners, etc.) to create an accurate real-time analysis of the waste stream. Based on this analysis, the system makes autonomous decisions on what objects to pick and how.” ZenRobotics anticipates that its waste sorting robots will “a game-changer” for the waste industry.

In April 2015 ZenRobotics was also successful in securing a 1,4 million € grant from the EU’s Executive Agency for SMEs (EASME) for its project “Robotic Recycling Revolution” in which it will further advance its waste sorting technology.

Sources: http://zenrobotics.com/advanced-robotics/case-zenrobotics-recycler/ https://ec.europa.eu/easme/en/sme/5693/robotic-recycling-revolution

Seen from a technological viewpoint, waste sorting bears, similarly to agriculture, the difficulty that the objects of interest (here the pieces of waste) are unique. Therefore, technological advances in several areas are necessary to reap the benefits of these new market

22 To see how their waste sorting robot works see this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAf_iVuZ-vU


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https://ec.europa.eu/easme/en/sme/5693/robotic-recycling-revolution

http://zenrobotics.com/advanced-robotics/case-zenrobotics-recycler/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAf_iVuZ-vU

opportunities. Technologies that are likely to be developed further in the future are elaborated below.

Firstly, sensing needs to be further advanced, as it is essential in identifying whether a piece of waste can be recycled or reused. Sensing in waste sorting usually covers the following type of sensors:

X-ray; Infra-red; Thermal (e.g. to identify material, how it reacts to heat); Visual (e.g. to identify brands); Spectrometers (to distinguishes items based on colour); 3D laser scanners (to identify shape of an object); Weight measurements; Metal detectors; Touch sensors (e.g. to provide information on how hard or soft an object is).

Secondly, pattern recognition technologies need advancement. This refers to information from different sensors to be combined by a software who can interpret and draw conclusions from it (e.g. whether a certain object can be recycled or not).

Thirdly, handling technologies (e.g. how much pressure to apply to lift things) needs to be refined, for example to lift items and place them in a certain box.

5.1.1.8 Other trends

Next to technological trends, there are a number of other trends that will possibly be induced by environmental sustainability policies. Firstly, several interviewees mentioned that there will be a shift, among robotics companies, towards offering more services next to the physical robot. For example, several of the interviewees saw possibilities for offering data analysis services (e.g. analysing the energy use of robots) to their clients. Secondly, some interviewees anticipated that sustainability policy will lead companies to integrate sustainability concerns more strongly into their operational processes. For example, it is likely that more companies will start carrying out LCAs or introduce an environmental or energy management system. One interviewee from a large robot designer and supplier company stated that already now clients demand to see their environmental audit reports before entering into a contractual business relationship with them. A few interviewees also stressed that nowadays companies usually do not know whether the material inputs they use are produced in a sustainable manner. Hence, it is be thinkable that sustainable sourcing will become more common in the future. However, the interviews highlighted as well that these trends are more relevant in larger enterprises. Smaller companies often do not have the financial leeway to adopt extensive environmental management schemes, apply sustainability criteria in sourcing, or carry out LCAs.


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5.1.2 Machine tools sector

Machine tools are used in a wide range of manufacturing sectors in which the production process requires the modification of a material (in particular metallic materials). For this reason interviewees specified that it is not possible to identify only few application markets and technology trends. However, it is possible to identify horizontal processes that can be related to any type of machine tool, used in any application market for any specific use.

The first aspect the research team investigated is the extent to which current and future environmental sustainability policies in place at EU level are affecting or will affect the machine tools sector in relation to technological developments, skills and employment. The responses provided by the interviewees contribute to elaborate a preliminary scenario where, at this moment in time, no specific legislative act or policy in the environmental sustainability domain can be identified as having a direct impact on the sector, in terms of technological development, skills needs and/or employment levels.

In relation to future policy developments, interviewees identified the Eco-design Directive as likely to have an impact on the technology used for machine tools. However, at the moment of writing the machine tools sector is not regulated by the Eco-design Directive yet, as well as by any other environmental sustainability legislation. The specific requirements and parameters of the directive are yet to be identified and agreed upon at EU level. One of the interviewees specified that “first of all we have to decide what energy efficiency is for machine tools, then we have to be able measure it and compare it”. Currently, it emerges that there is no standard comparison tool between machines to classify them according to energy efficiency levels. Furthermore, the machine tools industry is not homogeneous, energy consumption is very different from machine to machine, as they function differently and they are deployed for different uses. The perception of the interviewees is that it will still take a long time before the machine tools sector will be included in the Eco-design Directive. Further potential measures might arise from legislative measures currently in discussion regarding life extension of consumer and durable goods that could have consequences for the machine tools sector.

5.1.2.1 Technological trends in the machine tools industry

From the interviews, it emerges clearly that the machine tools sector is driven mainly by market forces. The technological development in the sector is driven primarily by the demand of the clients and by the competitors’ position in terms of products and offer. The role played by legislation and environmental sustainability policies is perceived as very much marginal by stakeholders, which also specify that most of the legislation is and will be


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focused on safety issues related to machine tools, in particular to the human-machine relationship.

Nevertheless, the research team has been trying to analyse whether the demand side might contain elements of significance from the environmental sustainability point of view. In other words, we have tried to understand if the variations on the demand side have been indirectly the results of new policy trends in the environmental sustainability domain. It clearly emerges that the demand is focused mainly on costs reduction and productivity, in order to increase the competitiveness against low cost competitors from outside Europe. This demand represents a driver for technological developments trends in the machine tools industry.

While costs reduction is self-explanatory, we investigated in more detail the demand for productivity. This led us to identify an issue related to productivity levels of the machines and their sustainability and energy consumption, arising from the market demands for increased productivity, which entails primarily higher speeds and more engine power. Higher speeds and more engine power require more energy, so increases in productivity ask for even higher increases in energy consumption, because it is a non-linear relationship. An interviewee clarified that “an increase of 10% in the productivity capacity of a machine equals a 20% increase in its energy consumption”.

The main demands of the market are focused on: Precision; Productivity; Less lubricants used; More intelligent and usable machines; Smart machines (advanced control and management software); Easy maintenance and repair.

Energy efficiency is not mentioned by interviewees as one of the most important features driven by market demands. When prompted regarding this feature of the machines, one interviewee stated that “definitely there is not high demand for energy efficiency, probably because the energy consumption of machines is generally not high, so customers do not have high energy bills”.

The energy cost related to the use of machine tools seems to be a very small fraction of the total production costs for manufacturing companies, in particular compared to raw materials and labour costs. This represents the main reason behind the difference in the importance attributed to energy efficiency between robots and machine tools customers, which main demands as stated above are more focused on precision, productivity, lower lubricant consumption etc.

With regard to cost reduction, stakeholders clarified that it is directly connected to global competitiveness capacity of companies in this sector. Any external pressure on machine tools manufacturers comes from the need of ensuring productivity at lower costs. One very


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important element in cost reduction is represented by lubricants. The reduction of their use (or new types of lubricants) is not driven by legislation, even though one of the outcomes of their reduction is more environmental sustainable machines, being instead the result of the effort of companies to reduce machine costs, with lubricants representing “up to 17% of the total manufacturing process [for a company using machine tools in their production processes]”.

These drivers coming from the market originate a context in which companies operating in the machine tools sector need to develop new solutions in order to respond to new demands. The main technological developments identified by the interviewees are:

Machine tools light weighting; Lower consumption of lubricants; Machine power management.

5.1.2.2 Machine tools light weighting

Light weighting is identified as a very important method to increase manufacturing precision and to reduce processing times. Ensuring small machine tools loads is key to achieve increased acceleration and high feed axis speeds, high speed cutting and machining operations, which are fundamental in achieving the increase in performance required by the market.The consistent use of lightweight design techniques can significantly contribute to achieve this objective, for example by using metal foams for sub-assemblies (units assembled separately but designed to be incorporated with other units into a larger manufactured product).

5.1.2.3 Lower consumption of lubricants

Lubricants represent a very important category of cost in the machining process, as well as having a high environmental impact. One of the key technology trends in this sector is the reduction of the use of lubricant fluids (E.g. Tamturbo in Finland produces air compressors with no lubricant).Dry lubricants are materials which despite being in the solid phase, are able to reduce friction between two surfaces sliding against each other without the need for a liquid oil medium.In normal machining operations, lubrication fluids are used to flood the area of contact between the tool and the work piece. The complete elimination of lubrication fluid poses serious challenges in terms of machine design, so it emerges that the use of Minimal Quantity Lubrication (MQL) is an optimal way to significantly reduce the cost of the machining process by significantly decreasing the costs associated to lubrication.

The research in this field has been focussing in particular on the effect of lubrication of the process on the environmental impact of the machining process, with one of the recent main


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result being that dry lubrication would decrease the total power consumption of machine tools, because it uses more power for cutting (about +11% respect to flooded lubrication) but eliminates all the power needed for the lubrication system (pumps, filters) and the related power consumption.

5.1.2.4 Machine power management

The digital control of power consumption of a machine is another key technological development that will be more and more important in the sector in the forthcoming years. This can have a clear direct beneficial impact in terms of reduction of costs (even though the energy bills is not the principal cost category for manufacturing companies), as well as of improved energy efficiency. Improved power management tools necessitate of the incorporation in the machine of power consumption measurement instruments and controlling and scheduling software. The overall energy consumption of an operating machine can be significantly reduced if during idle times (time associated with waiting, or when a piece of machinery is not being used but could be) the machine peripheral devices can be turned into a complete stand by or off phase.In addition, some technologies could be mobilised to reduce power consumption, such as adequately used direct drives in place of gear boxes.

5.1.2.5 Application markets and the impact on the machine tools industry

The research team wanted to investigate whether there is a correlation between the impact of European environmental sustainability policy on the application markets of the machine tools industry, which might have an impact on skills and employment (due for example to changes in the quantity and quality of the demand).From a general point of view, all interviewees stated that most application markets with complex production and metal working processes are affected by EU environmental legislation and that these market can have a direct impact on the machine tools industry. When prompted regarding specific sectors, all the stakeholders identified the automotive industry as the most important of these sectors. Cars manufacturers ask for energy efficient production lines and want to be able to manage their power consumption, which will in turn create a pressure on the machine tools to develop machines equipped with new low power consumptions technologies and integrated power meter monitors.

At the moment of writing, however, it emerges that one manufacturer23 is leading the way, with the introduction on the market of a new tool integrating a power meter on the front screen of the controller and equipping its machines with high efficiency motors.Interviewees identified other sectors relevant for the machine tools industry, in particular aviation, railways and large infrastructures. However, it seems not possible to establish a

23 DMG Mori Seiki AG, a German mechanical engineering company and machine tool builder, which is one of the market leaders in this sector


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correlation between the environmental sustainability legislation affecting these sectors and the machine tools industry. The changes in the demand, if any, are qualitative rather than quantitative (for example machines with different capabilities rather than more machines), which can be easily absorbed by the industry.

Another correlation highlighted by the stakeholders is with the electric engines sector, which is already included in the eco-design directive. The impact on the machine tools sector relates to higher costs, due the increased prices for purchasing the electric engines, which form of course a fundamental component of the machines. In the future, the relevant costs might further rise due to the scarcity of raw materials, which will likely have an impact in terms of costs of the electric engines.

5.2 Future skills needs

In this section we present a description of the skills needs identified during the interviews with the stakeholders, which will be relevant for the machine tools and robotics sectors. It should be noted that the skills requirements outlined below refer almost exclusively to those workers who design machine tools and robots. The interviews did not provide evidence that the skills requirements for workers who manufacture machine tools and robots will change significantly as a result of sustainability policies and technology trends.

5.2.1 Programming

Many of the identified technology trends require programming skills. For example, to enhance the energy efficiency of robots, innovative software is needed that adjusts energy usage of robots automatically based on performance requirements. Also in waste sorting advanced algorithms are necessary in order to interpret the data generated by sensors and to make decisions on whether a piece of waste is suitable for reuse or recycling. One interviewee highlighted that mathematicians, and not necessarily programmers, are well suited to develop solutions to such complex problems. They have the capability to understand the underlying structure of a problem and to develop mathematical algorithm that solve it. The role of programmers is then to translate these mathematical solutions into a computer programme. Some interviewees also mentioned the increasing importance of open-source software, though more research is needed to confirm whether there is indeed a shift towards the use of open-source software in robotics.

In the machine tools sectors programming skills will be more and more important as the demand for improved power management of the machines increases. Some interviewees highlighted that mechanical engineers will need to obtain the necessary programming skills in the machine tools sector, as they already possess the required knowledge in terms of machine design and are best placed for integrating power management in the design of the product.


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As the relative importance of programming increases in the design of Machine tools and Robots, it may be expected that programming languages and software development environments evolve towards more abstract languages and more efficient environments – which will affect the nature of the skills necessary to software engineers.

5.2.2 (Big) data analytics

Another area of skills which is likely to become more relevant for the robotics sector is data analytics. For the machine tools sector this skill is less relevant. Data analytics will for example be crucial in the energy efficiency monitoring of automated production lines. Advanced data analytics and decision making algorithms will also be necessary in precision farming in order to determine which treatment should be applied to a certain area. Specific skills needed in the area of data analytics are for example statistical and quantitative analysis, programming, data visualization, and data security. It should be noted that data analysis is usually not a core task of robots. Rather robots supply data and execute activities that are the result of data analysis. However, it is becoming more common that robotic companies offer data analysis services as add-on on top of their robots.

5.2.3 Material sciences

The trend towards light weighting will increase the demand for personnel that is skilled in material sciences. Besides having knowledge of different materials, personnel will need to be able to analyse how the use of alternative materials will influence the performance and safety of robots and machine tools and how they can be integrated in the broader system.

This skills set will be of strategic importance also for the machine tools industry in particular: the demand coming from various application markets is going towards an increase in the machines’ capabilities, in terms of precision, productivity and materials that can be modified by the machine. New materials to be worked require indeed a different design for the machine (e.g. in the case of ceramic or magnetic bearings). However, from the interviews it emerges that this demand can easily be assimilated by the current engineers and designers working in companies in the machine tools sector. Nevertheless, these skills will become more and more important.

5.2.4 Advanced sensors

Another future skills need lays in the area of sensing. A sensor is a device that detects some type of input from the physical environment. In robotics sensors are crucial in the domain of precision farming and waste sorting. But also in the area of energy efficiency, sensors are


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used to monitor energy performance of robots. Skills in a variety of different sensing techniques will be needed, such as thermal sensors, spectrometers, 3D laser scanners, and tactile sensors. Moreover, in order to ‘make sense’ of the information provided by sensors, software will need to be developed, which requires programming skills. Programming and working on advanced sensors will be crucial in the machine tools sector as well, as more and more companies will integrate power management and energy monitoring software and tools in their products.

5.2.5 Energy management

As increasing energy efficiency is one of the most important trends, more people with skills in energy management will be needed, in the robotic as well as in the machine tool sector. Energy management has the objective to save energy within a company or another type of organisation. It usually covers processes such as monitoring, controlling, and conserving energy (see for more information Box 4). Energy management thus goes beyond technological advances in the area of energy efficiency but takes a holistic approach that takes into account the whole organisation. Already now a number of Master degrees in the area of Energy Management exist, such as the MBA ‘Energy Management’ at the Vienna University of Economics and Business or the M.Sc. ‘Environmental and Energy Management’ at the University of Twente. Next to university education, energy management skills can also be obtained by offering dedicated ‘energy management’ trainings to employees.

Box 7: Steps in energy management as set out in ISO 50001:2011

ISO 50001:2011 (‘Energy Management System’) lays down a number of steps that certified organisations have to follow in the area of energy management. These are:

Develop a policy for more efficient use of energy Fix targets and objectives to meet the policy Use data to better understand and make decisions about energy use Measure the results Review how well the policy works, and Continually improve energy management.

5.2.6 Environmental management

Next to energy management, also more skills in the more general area of environmental management will be needed, again both in the robotic and machine tool sector. Some companies stated during the interview that they already had an environmental management system, such as ISO14001, in place. ISO14001 adheres the Plan-Do-Check-Act methodology and stipulates that organisations that want to be certified should follow four steps:

Plan: establish the objectives and processes necessary to deliver results in accordance with the organization's environmental policy.

Do: implement the processes.


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Check: monitor and measure processes against environmental policy, objectives, targets, legal and other requirements, and report the results.

Act: take actions to continually improve performance of the environmental management system.

Next to more generic environmental management it is thinkable that more companies, especially the larger ones, will carry out LCAs for their products. In this case more skills in the area of LCA would be needed. Skills in environmental management and LCA can either be obtained by hiring personnel with a specialized degree or relevant working experience, or by providing trainings to the existing workforce.


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5.2.7 Mechanical Engineering

Mechanical engineering is a skills set that is already widely present in the machine tool and robotics sector. However, in the machine tool sector new skills in terms of application of dry lubrication and MQL technologies and light weighting techniques will require the updating of these skills within the companies. Interviews show that the current set of skills that engineers working in the companies have will need to be updated as new research is conducted in this field and new game changing technologies in this field are available on the market.

5.2.8 Eco-Design and maintenance The pressure arising from Eco-design requirements regarding the repairability, maintainability or upgradability of Machine tools or Robots may increase over time. This would increase the need for skills to design products with increased life duration, and that are easier to repair, maintain or upgrade. These competences are already present in the sectors being considered, but their relative importance in the skills mix may need to grow.

Similarly, the business model of firms in the Machine tools and the Robotics sectors may evolve towards a leasing model, where they keep the ownership of the equipment and provide the maintenance and upgrade services themselves. If this were the case, then skills to maintain and upgrade equipment will increase in relative importance in the work force.

5.2.9 Green business model management

Companies are increasingly recognising that developing new products and services based on new green and clean technologies, or by making changes to their business models, can help them become more competitive on the market. These changes can be referred to as innovation towards a company green business model. Companies might innovate by substituting to greener inputs, reusing or recycling resources, offering their product as a service function while continuing to have ownership of the products, or by developing greener products, services and processes. As an interviewee specialized in the professional training suggested, “new business models for companies to adapt to circular economy” will be needed in order to respond to environmental pressures that sooner or later will affect companies, which will translate in legal and market pressure in the forthcoming period. This shift towards greener business models must be driven by the top management levels of the companies, which will need to incorporate new and updated economics and business modelling skills.

5.2.10 Knowledge of end-user requirements in new markets As new markets develop, such as waste sorting or precision farming, the companies active in Robotics will need to develop in-house the competences necessary to fully understand the


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constraints and requirements of these new customers, and to provide them with the solutions that they need.

5.3 Employment changes

In this section we present the results of the Input-Output analysis. The anticipated effects of environmental sustainability policies on employment in the machine tools and robotics sectors in the EU are presented separately in Figure 6 and Figure 7 below. Due to the nature of developed scenarios and the working of the Input-Output model the presented figures show long-term anticipated trends in employment. The actual figures could fluctuate according to the business cycle, but relative differences between scenarios are expected to stay the same.

5.3.1 Machine tools sector

The machine tools sector is expected to continue to grow in the future, due to the growth in the global economy and in the main application markets, as shown in Figure 6. In Scenario A24, which we consider as the baseline case in this study, the machine tools sector in the EU is expected to employ around 165.000 people in 2020 and around 220.000 in 2030. The implementation of sustainability policies in Scenarios B and C is showing negative effect on employment in the machine tools sector. Scenario C leads to an approximate loss of 5.000 jobs in 2020 and 11.500 by 2030 in the sector.

A number of factors explain this outcome. Firstly, sustainability policies such as the carbon tax and the Emission Trading System are leading to increased energy efficiency in all economic sectors and therefore to a relative reduction in the size of the energy production sector, compared to Scenario A. This means that the whole supply chain of energy companies, including machine tools, would see this reduction. Secondly, the focus on eco-design means that consumers would buy less durables and spend more on repairing services. This leads to an overall reduction of the industrial sectors in production volume and a rise for service providers. Here again, the machine tools sector is affected because it operates in the supply chain of many industrial sectors. Scenario C shows a larger reduction in employment figures than Scenario B, which is explained with the decrease in energy and other industrial sectors in the rest of the world, and therefore the lower volume of export of the European machine tools industry. In Scenario B the European machine tools manufacturers are able to maintain their global competitive position due to the introduction of border adjustment measures.

And lastly, we have broken down Scenarios B and C in order to be able to see separately the effects of developing market opportunities, as described in section 4. For the machine tools industry this activity does not show any significant effect, mainly due to the fact that the experts interviewed are not foreseeing significant new opportunities with effect on the number

24 A description of the three scenarios (A, B and C) can be found in section 4.2.


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of people employed per unit being manufactured (e.g. per car). It should be noted that the overall seemingly modest effect of sustainability policies on employment of -5%, compared to the baseline, is explained by the fact the currently discussed policy packages are mainly expected to have effect on how energy is produced and how efficiently it is being used. These packages are not foreseeing substantial changes in the size of the main machine tools application markets, e.g. reduction in the number of cars sold due to increased lifetime of cars or decline in demand for individual mobility. However, if the number of units being manufactured varies, the number of machine tools being sold would also vary accordingly. The structure of the main application markets of the machine tools industry is not expected to change due to the considered environmental sustainability policies, the reduction across different industrial sectors is expected to be uniform. It should be noted that the shift is not visible at the level of detail of NACE 2-digit sectors, the level of the IO model. There could be shifts within the sectors, e.g. the industry would need to adapt to produce different types of machine tools for manufacturing of components for electric cars, rather than for fuel combustion cars. This level of details cannot be investigated with the NACE 2-digit level IO model.

Figure 6. Effect on EU employment in machine tools sector in 2020 and 2030 for different scenarios

Source: TNO, calculation with input-output version of EXIOMOD model.

5.3.2 Robotics sector

The results for the robotics sectors are presented in Figure 7. The market for industrial and professional service robots is dynamic and expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future. These trends are reflected in the anticipated employment figures in our baseline case, Scenario A. The robotics sector is expected to employ in Europe around 36.000 people in 2020 and around 64.000 people in 2030. Similar to the machine tools sector, due to a relative reduction in energy production and further shift from industrial production to a service


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economy, the initial effect of sustainability policies is negative for the robotics employment (see bars for Scenario B and C excluding new market opportunities). The results for EU-only (Scenario B) and global (Scenario C) scenarios are rather similar. In Scenario B again the European producers are protected from international competition due to implementation of the border adjustment measures25. In Scenario C the employment in the robotics sector is expected to reduce by around 500 jobs by 2020 and by approximately 1.500 jobs by 2030. When taking into account the full Scenario B and C, new jobs are created in the robotics sector, in Scenario C the sector is expected to have an additional 3.000 jobs, as compared to the baseline Scenario A. These extra jobs would come from the newly created or further developed market opportunities, such as precision agriculture and increased waste recycling rates.

In line with the results for the machine tools, the sustainability policies excluding new market opportunities lead to a reduction of employment in the robotics sector of -2.5%. Here again we observe the fact that the policy packages are mainly targeting energy systems. The more substantial effects on employment are anticipated due to the new market opportunities promoted by the sustainability policies. These new opportunities are also reflected in the shift of the structure of the application markets: increase for field robots from 5% to 10% share and waste sorting taking almost 1% share. Overall, if these new market opportunities are included, employment in the European robotics sector is anticipated to rise by 11 000 jobs by 2020 and 42 000 by 2030, compared to the number of jobs in 2014.

Figure 7. Effect on EU employment in robotics sector in 2020 and 2030 for different scenarios

Source: TNO, calculation with input-output version of EXIOMOD model

25 For example, carbon tax or purchase of emission allowances for imported products, carbon tax rebates or re-selling of emission allowances for exported products.


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5.3.3 Sensitivity analysis

Estimating the long-term growth trajectory of a specific sector is a complex process that builds on various assumptions. The anticipated employment figures shown above are in part based on the assumption that the machine tools and robotics sectors will continue to grow faster than other manufacturing sectors, with the difference in growth rates similar to the one observed from 2005 to 2014. More specifically, the machine tools sector is expected to grow by 1.8% p.a. faster and the robotics sector by 5.4% p.a. faster than the aggregated “machinery and equipment n.e.c.” sector. If one takes the growth difference from the period of 2009-2014 instead, the machine tools sector would be growing by 1.2% p.a. faster and the robotics sector by 8.1% p.a. faster than the aggregated sector. Taking different rates of long-term growth would result in the different employment projection in the baseline, but as shown in the Figure 8 the direction and relative effects of environmental sustainability policies stay the same. In Scenario C excluding new market opportunities the change in employment in the machine tools sector is -5% (188.000 vs. 198.000 in the baseline) and in the robotics sector -2.5% (99.000 vs. 101.400 in the baseline) by 2030. When the new market opportunities are also taken into account, an additional 4.5% jobs are created in the robotics sector, compared to the baseline, resulting in an overall gain of 2%, compared to the baseline.

Figure 8. Effect on EU employment in machine tools and robotics sector in 2030, alternative long-term growth projections

Source: TNO, calculation with input-output version of EXIOMOD model.

5.3.4 Summarized results


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The table below give the overall summary of the expected employment changes. Since the focus of this report is on the effects caused by sustainability policies, the measures of efficiency of these policies, expressed in the amount of carbon dioxide emissions, are also shown. Carbon dioxide emissions were not calculated specifically in this study, the results are taken from the corresponding scenarios of POLFREE project.

Table 2. Summary of employment and carbon dioxide results in the EU.

2014 2020 2030Level Index (2014=100) Level Index (2014=100)

Employment in Machine tool sector in EU (in thousands jobs)Scenario A

138165 119 221 134

Scenario B 161 116 212 132Scenario C 160 115 209 131Employment in Robotics sector in EU (in thousands jobs)Scenario A

25.235.8 142 64.3 180

Scenario B 36.0 143 66.0 183Scenario C 36.2 144 67.1 186Carbon dioxide emissions in EU (Gt)Scenario A

3 4983 118 89 2 653 76

Scenario B 2 666 76 1 917 55Scenario C 2 634 75 1 873 54


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6 Conclusions

Our analysis has provided new insights concerning future technology trends and related skills needs, and changes in employment in the European robotics and machine tools sectors as a result of EU environmental sustainability policies.

6.1 Future technology trends and related skills needs

The qualitative analysis showed that a number of (technological) trends are likely to arise or be spurred by sustainability policies. In the robotics sector these are light weighting, energy efficiency optimization, smaller robots, refurbishment and reprogramming of robots, robots in precision farming, robots in waste sorting, offering more services, and integrating sustainability concerns more strongly into operational processes. For the machine tools sector the main trends are light weighting, lower consumption of lubricants, and machine power management. A detailed description of each trend is provided in section 5.1.

Table 3: Technological and other trends in the robotics and machine tools sectors

Robotics sector Machine tool sector26

Technological trends

Light weighting Light weighting

Energy efficiency optimization Lower consumption of lubricants

Smaller robots Machine power management

Refurbishment and reprogramming of robots



Non-technological trends

Offering more services

Integrating sustainability concerns more strongly into operational processes

26 These are the technology trends identified through the involvement of the stakeholders. However, CECIMO clarified that the machine tools industry is actively pursuing developments also in the following areas: monitoring of leaks and losses of gas and fluids and consumables, recovery of waste heat, reduction in moving masses. Also Additive Manufacturing is becoming more and more an important technological development for the Machine tools sectors, representing a potentially game changer technology with applications that span the whole manufacturing industry.


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The table shows that some trends are the same for both sectors, while others are unique to one sector. The interviews did not provide an explanation for the observed differences. Though some might be attributable to the fact that the two sectors are inherently different, concerning the technologies they use but also with regard to the proneness to innovations.

Based on these trends a number of future skills needs were identified, most importantly: programming, (big) data analytics, material sciences, advanced sensors applications and analytics, mechanical engineering, environmental management, energy management, and green business model management.27 Again, some skills needs are the same for the robotics and machine tools sector, while others are unique to one sector. The identified skills needs mostly refer to highly skilled specialists (e.g. engineers, programmers) that are designing and building the robots and machine tools. The interviews did not provide evidence that the skills needs of lower skilled workers that actually put the machine tools and robots together would be altered significantly. Table 4 below provides an indication of which skills will be needed to address which trends.

Table 4: Relevance of skills to (technology) trends

Technology Trends

Robotics Machine tools

Light-weighting

Energy efficiency optimization

Smaller robots

Refurbishment of robots

Reprogramming of robots



Life-Cycle Assessment

Dry Lubrication or MQL

Light-weighting

Power management

Skill

s

Mechanical engineeringProgramming

(Big) data analyticsEnvironmental managementEnergy managementMaterial sciencesAdvanced sensorsGreen Business Model Management

In the robotics sector the typical skills set, which lays mainly in the area of mechatronics, will remain largely relevant in the future. However, certain specific skills within this area are likely to become more important in the next ten to fifteen years, such as programming, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering, or systems engineering. Other future skills needs that were identified through the interviews are (big) data analytics, material sciences, and

27 Some skills needs are the same for the robotics and machine tools sector, while others are unique to one sector.


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advanced sensors. In addition to these technical skills also some non-technical skills will become more relevant, namely energy management and environmental management.

With regard to the machine tools sector, it is possible to conclude that the main skills that will be needed will be in the areas of mechanical engineering, programming, energy management, materials sciences, environmental management, advanced sensors applications and analytics, and green business management. The trends in technological developments have been so far market-driven, resulting from the general demand for a reduction in cost with increased performances. Reducing costs can be achieved by limiting the use of lubricants, the amount of raw materials and, even though energy bills are not the largest costs for manufacturing companies, power consumption. For these reasons, engineers will need to be able to integrate various skills and competences in the design of the machines, bringing together skills that belong to very different sectors, such as programming and materials sciences. These new set of skills are to be acquired through the implementation of vocational training course for the technicians already employed in the companies, more than outsourced or obtained by employing new personnel.

6.2 Changes in employment

The quantitative analysis showed that sustainability policies in general are anticipated to have a light negative effect on the employment in the machine tools and robotics sectors. In case of global implementation of sustainability policies, a reduction of 9.000 jobs (circa 3% of all jobs in the two sectors) by 2030 was calculated, compared to the projected employment in 2030 with the current set of policies. This trend is explained by the decline in the energy sector and a further shift to the service-oriented economy under stringent sustainability policies. Furthermore, the increasing focus on the eco-design of products means that consumers would buy less durables and spend more on repairing services. This leads to an overall reduction of the industrial sectors in production volume and a rise for service providers. No significant difference in employment levels was observed between a scenario in which Europe alone implements sustainability policies and a scenario in which sustainability policies are implemented globally. However, this can probably be attributed to the fact that border adjustment measures are assumed to be adopted (i.e. applying the same tax or emission allowance regime to importers as to local manufacturers) to help maintain the competitive position of European industries in the case Europe alone implements sustainability policies. Furthermore, the results indicate that new market opportunities arising from sustainability policies are crucial for the creation of new jobs in the sector. A number of such new opportunities for robotics sector have been suggested by expert during the interviews, including the rise of precision farming and new uses of robots in waste recycling. In case these opportunities do indeed realize, an estimated number of 4.300 new robotics jobs in Europe can be created. This conclusion strongly depends on the assumption that precision farming and waste sorting in the future will be automatized with robots, but not with other types of machinery.


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Estimation of employment effects in 2020 and 2030 requires to make assumptions about long-term growth trajectory. In order to validate the results of the estimation we have performed sensitivity analysis. The relative losses and gains in jobs between different scenarios in the sensitivity analysis are the same as in the results presented above.

6.3 Other insights

Interestingly, the interviews with the stakeholders showed that most companies are generally not aware of how sustainability policies affect their daily business operations or might influence them in the future. Moreover, it was observed that if companies adopt a “more sustainable behaviour” (e.g. using less resources) this is in the majority of cases driven by market forces. Either being more sustainable helps them to save money (for example in case they use less resources), or being more sustainable enhances their market opportunities (for example if their clients demand more energy-efficient products). If such market incentives and price signals are not present, companies are very reluctant to adopt more sustainable behaviour. In line with this observation some interviewees stressed that policy interventions to stimulate greater sustainability in the industrial sector should make use of market incentives as much as possible (as opposed to “command and control regulation”); in the words of one interviewee: “they should ensure that it pays off to be sustainable”.


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7 Policy recommendations

Two workshops were organised in Munich (2nd and 3rd of February 2016) and Brussels (8th of March 2016) to present the results of the study in order to collect the insights, understanding, ideas and recommendations of the stakeholders who participated in the event. The objective of the workshops was to identify the problems and policy recommendations in the following three main areas identified by the stakeholders:

The intra-sector mobility due to the shifts in application markets (shift to e-mobility for cars, shift from air transport to rail), at (almost constant) employment volume;

The integration in the companies of the additional skills identified; The quantitative rise in the work force due to the overall trend in the sectors of

Machine tools and Robotics and to the emergence of new application markets for Robots (precision farming; waste sorting).

The table below presents the proposals for policy support ideas identified during the workshop.

Preliminary statement by Cecimo on social dialogue: CECIMO does not have a mandate from its members to engage on social issues within the social dialogue framework.


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Table 5: POLICY PROPOSALS

Area Issue Policy idea Type of stakeholder

Examples of similar or supporting

initiativesSector attractiveness

Perception by young persons that the working conditions in the Machine tools and Robotics sectors may be less attractive than in the services sector.

Gather information on successful practices or models that improve the perception of industry among young people.

Social partners Social dialogue project “Leather is my job”

Increase the opportunities of exchange between companies and trade unions, on the one hand, and teachers and students on the other hand.

Social partnersNational ministries of Education

Gather information on working conditions to identify possible ameliorations, e.g. by designing ergonomically optimised work-places

Social partners Bipartite “Kommission Arbeitsschutz und Normung – KAN” in Germany

Lack of awareness by young people of the career opportunities in the Machine tools and Robotics sectors.

Communicate towards young people on career opportunities in the Machine tools and Robotics sectors and advertise on their positive long-term prospects based on innovation, even in the case of ambitious policies towards environmental sustainability, as demonstrated in the study.

National ministries of EducationSocial Partners

Social dialogue project “Leather is my job”

Improve career guidance at school and university, based on successful models at national or regional level.

National ministries of EducationEuropean CommissionSocial Partners

An model provided by Switzerland, with independent career and educational guidance centres

When considering engaging in a technical or engineering specialisation, students fear being trapped in

Collect and analyse information about effectiveness and financing models of existing (national or regional) Sectoral Training Funds. Consider the support of existing or creation of Sectoral Training Funds to support the up-skilling

European Commission Social Partners at all levels,National

http://www.sdbb.ch/

http://www.sdbb.ch/

https://www.kan.de/en/





initiativestheir technical speciality if their sector evolves over the 40+ years of their career.

and re-skilling of technical experts in the sectors if and when they need to adapt within their company to changes in the market (e.g. those required by environmental sustainability policies), under a Life-Long Learning concept.

authorities (as re-skilling mainly is in the responsibility of the state.

Collect and analyse information about effectiveness and financing models of existing training funds supporting professional transitions between companies and sectors. Consider the support of existing or creation of a “Fund for Career Transitions”, to anticipate and support the professional transition of technical experts in the sectors if and when they need to change sector or company (from or towards the Machine tools & Robotics sectors), under a Life-Long Learning concept.

European Commission Social Partners

European Globalisation Adjustment Fund

Young people are sensitive to the more general meaning of their professional activity, and could be motivated by sustainability arguments in their career choices.

Communicate towards young people on innovation- and sustainability aspects of the Machine tools sector

National ministries of EducationEU policy-makersSocial Partners

Education The report identified a set of skills gaps in the field of sustainability management.

Include the technical “sustainability skills” identified in the report (mechatronics, eco-design and re-use, mechanical engineering, green business management), in technical education curricula

National ministries of EducationUniversitiesSocial partners


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initiativesThe design requirements coming from customer requirements and from legislation are increasingly diverse, also because of sustainability requirements. This diversity demands a technical capacity to integrate these requirements, and a human capacity to reach agreement between diverging interests.

Include System Design in technical education curricula.

Include soft skills, e.g. cooperation, communication, ability to take responsibility, problem-solving and negotiation, in technical education curricula.

Adaptability and Mobility between companies within the Machine tools and Robotics sectors

Some skills needs do not represent a work volume large enough to justify employing a person full time, but can be of strategic importance for the development of the business. This is specifically relevant for emerging skills, such as those identified in the report to address sustainability requirements, but applies also e.g. to big data analytics.

A multi-employer contract following the French experience. Enable several companies (typically: SMEs located in the same area, but not competing with one another) to share the permanent employment contract of the same expert, in the form of several part-time contracts, while effectively securing good working conditions, and specifically that the total work load remains within legal limits.

Social partners French multi-employer contractGerman regional equivalent (North Rhine Westphalia)


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initiativesAdaptability and Mobility between companies in the Machine tools and Robotics sectors and other sectors within the MET domain

Workers’ mobility between sub-sectors of the MET domain may be restricted by the functional scope of certifications and qualifications.

Broaden the functional scope of certifications and qualifications to the whole MET sector.

National policy-makers

International mobility of workers may be restricted by geographic limitations to the recognition of industry-specific certificates and diplomas.

Continue to work on international transparency of qualifications to broaden the geographical scope of technical, industry-specific certificates and diplomas to the whole EU and beyond.

National policy-makers

European transparency tools for national qualifications (not sectoral so far – with a few exceptions)

International mobility of workers is hampered by their lack of familiarity with the working environment in other Member States of the European Union.

Explore means to support the international mobility of adult workers, specifically in SMEs. E.g. funding for short-term stay abroad while retaining contract; disseminate best practices of firms welcoming workers from other Member States.

European CommissionSocial partners

Erasmus+ programme for students currently enrolled in vocational education and training (VET), company-based apprentices and recent VET graduates.

Life-Long Learning

While Life-Long Learning is crucial for the sustainable employability of workers and for the long-term adaptability of the company, it may be difficult to reconcile with day to day activities, specifically in SMEs.

On the basis of a defined exchange of good exercise, set up guidelines for establishing structural solutions, at regional level. This would include defining how work should be organised when workers are off for Life-Long Learning courses. These structural solutions could be established at company level, or at sectoral level, specifically to pool the needs of SMEs.

Social partnersRegional/local stakeholders


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http://ec.europa.eu/programmes/erasmus-plus/opportunities-for-individuals/trainees/vocational_en



https://ec.europa.eu/ploteus/search/site?f%5B0%5D=im_field_entity_type%3A97





initiativesThe quality of on-line and distance Life-Long Learning programmes can be further enhanced in order to encourage the adoption of this promising form of teaching and learning.

Define quality standards and set up a certification scheme for online and distance Life-Long Learning programmes.

EU and national policy-makers

Report “Quality Assurance of E-learning” by the European Association for Quality Assurance in Higher Education (2009)

Increase R&D support to identify and improve the best platforms for online and distance Life-Long Learning.

The whole idea of Lifelong Learning is still new in Europe. As a result, many people are unfamiliar with this concept of career development.

Develop a clear strategy and guidelines on communicating on real-life experience and career development of persons having followed successful/employability enhancing Life-Long Learning courses, specifically in the direction of younger people.Earmark investments on lifelong training projects at EU level.

EU policy-makersSocial Partners

Measures to increase productive investment in the EU

In general, European manufacturing suffers from too low levels of investment, also in production.

Stable regulatory environment in order to allow for companies to invest in innovation and production optimization and trigger gains in terms of energy saving and sustainability.

EU policy-makers Feed-in tariffs for renewable electricity in Germany, SpainPreferential credit rates for energy-saving investment provided by KfW bank in Germany.

Broader political debates

Support the development of sustainable long-term investments, such as education and training

Incentivise long-term allocation of assets.Collect good examples of incentives for long-term productive investment in industry and in the transition to sustainability. On that basis develop guidelines on how to implement these in a

European Commission

UNEP “Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System” (2015)


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http://unepinquiry.org/



https://www.kfw.de/inlandsfoerderung/Unternehmen/Auslandsvorhaben/index-2.html



http://www.enqa.eu/indirme/papers-and-reports/workshop-and-seminar/ENQA_wr_14.pdf





initiativesand LLL sustainable, employment- and competitiveness-

enhancing manner.The digitalisation of production processes offers challenges and opportunities for the European machine-tool and robotics industry. Whereas productivity increases through digitalisation could lead to re-shoring of industrial activities to Europe, added value might move towards the owners of proprietary digital platforms and devalue the competitiveness of European industry.

In order to maintain the added value within the sectors, and therefore their long-term attractiveness, apply and enforce competition rules in a solid way in order to avoid potential abuses of a dominant position of digital platforms which would carry negative effects on the entire value chain.

European CommissionMember StatesIndustry associations

DG Competition’s recent case against dominant players in the on-line search sector

Create a regulatory framework for the access to and transfer of industrial data, where can be exchanged fairly and in a secure manner between firms, all while paying due consideration to IP rights. The regime of worker-related data is not included in this recommendation.

EU “Strategic Policy Forum on Digital Entrepreneurship”:Report on Big data andB2B digital platforms (Apr-2016)

Establish open standards for the digital integration of manufacturing equipment, the access to and use of which must be subject to Fair, Reasonable and Non-Discriminatory (FRAND) economic & legal conditions, for all players in the Machine tools and Robotics sectors.

Ericsson proposal for cooperative licensing platform for Internet of Things (IoT) applications (Sep-2015)

Support “digital innovation hubs” in all European regions

Joint monitoring

Jointly monitor the evolutions of skills requirements to address environmental sustainability policies, in a permanent dialogue at all levels.

Social partnersIndustry associations


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https://www.ericsson.com/news/150910-ericsson-invites-industry-players-to-join-its-licensing-effort-for-internet-of-things_244069645_c

http://ec.europa.eu/growth/sectors/digital-economy/entrepreneurship/strategic-policy-forum/




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Glossary

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

EC European Commission

ERP Energy Related Product

ETS Emission Trading Scheme

EU European Union

EUP Energy Using Product

EXIOBASE Environmentally-Extended-Input-Output database

FP7 7th Framework Programme for R&D

IO Input – Output model

IOT Input – Output Table

ISO International Organisation for Standardisation

LCA Life-Cycle Assessment

LCM Life-Cycle Management

MQL Minimum Quantity Lubrication

NACE Nomenclature statistique des activités économiques dans la Communauté européenne

OSRF Open Source Robotics Foundation

R&D Research and Development

RoW Rest of the World

SME Small and Medium Enterprise

WTO World Trade Organisation


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· web vieworiginal robot designers and suppliers who market robots as a branded product;...

Documents