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VIETNAM RECORDS GROWTH SLOWDOWN IN Q1’16

Source: Government Statistics Office (2016)

GDP Q1’16

5.5% vs. YA

6.1 8.7

5.7

2.1

5.5 6.7 6.1

-1.2

GDP Industrial &Construction

Services Agriculture,Forestry &Fisheries

Q1'15 Q1'16

GDP % growth vs. YA breakdown by Sector

Driven by slowdown of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries, Industrial & Construction

CPI Q1’16

+1.3% vs. YA

6.9

4.8

0.7 1.3

Q1'13 Q1'14 Q1'15 Q1'16

Higher CPI growth vs. Q1’15 but still low

6.9

16.3 8.1

12.0 4.1

-4.8 EXPORT IMPORT

Q1/15 2015 Q1/16

TRADE SECTOR

Vietnam is also impacted by global economic difficulties

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RELIANCE ON EXPORT MAKES OUR INDUSTRIAL SECTOR SENSITIVE TO GLOBAL TURMOIL

Source: General Statistics Office (2016)

6.7 9.5

4.4

-1.2

7.9 9.9

Mining &quarrying

Manufacturing Construction

Q1'15 Q1'16

Slowdown of Industrial sector is driven by both Mining & Manufacturing

% Growth vs. YA by Sub-sector

OIL COAL COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS

COMING FROM SLOWDOWN OF :

IMPACT FROM REDUCED DEMAND FROM OTHER ECONOMIES, ESPECIALLY CHINA

Coal ↓ 93%

Crude Oil ↓ 53%

SHARP DROP OF OIL PRICE

Chemicals ↓ 14%

EXPORTS SOFTEN DUE TO:

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49%

STILL A DIFFICULT YEAR AHEAD FOR AGRICULTURE

Source: General Statistics Office (2016), “Vietnam: Drought and Saltwater Intrusion Update” by United Nations Vietnam (2016, Apr)

CROPS comprise half of agriculture production value, with main products such as rice, pepper, coffee, cashew nuts…

IMPACT OF DROUGHT & SALTWATER INTRUSION ON CROPS

• Start: Late-2014 due to El Nino phenomenon • Areas: from South Central Coast to Mekong Delta • Damage:

Food/water shortages Agricultural land damage

2.3 MILLION People affected

39/63 provinces affected

US $232m Estimated total

damage to agriculture sector

□ Affected Areas

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RETAIL VOLUME GROWTH STILL MUCH HIGHER THAN 2014 YET SLOWING DOWN

Source: General Statistics Office (2016)

Retail Sales Growth Y-O-Y (inc. Services)

7

5.1 5 4.9 4.3

0.8 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.2

5.6

5.1 5.7 6.2 6.3

9.2 8.3 9.1 8.4 7.9

12.6

10.2 10.7 11.1

10.6 10 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.1

Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16

Unit change Retail Volume Sales Retail Value Sales

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0.5% 2.8%

-5.2%

-1.9%

1.1%

0.5% 2.9%

0.0%

3.6% 4.9%

3.0%

2.2%

3.7%

-2.0%

0.5%

3.1%

1.8%

3.4%

0.9%

4.5%

5.7%

3.6%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth

FMCG GROWTH REMAINS POSITIVE, A BIT SLOWER

Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago

Fast Moving Consumer Goods dynamics - Total 6 cities

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Super Category Contribution and Growth - Total 6 Cities

BEVERAGE IS STILL SHINING STAR, DRIVEN BY BEER

Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago; % is value contribution to Total FMCG MAT TY

-0.9% -4.4%

5.2% -2.5%

-1.3% 0.9% -3.8%

6.9% 8.1% 8.1% 4.7%

7.3% 7.7% 8.1%

8.2% 9.7% 9.6%

6.7%

9.9% 9.7% 10.0%

-0.6% -0.1%

-3.0% -3.5%

3.0%

3.7% 2.6%

BEVERAGE FOOD MILK BASED

39% 15% 16%

Unit Value Change Volume Change Nominal Value Growth

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WHILE OTHER CATEGORIES STILL STRUGGLE

Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago; % is value contribution to Total FMCG MAT TY

4.5%

-0.6% 3.4%

-0.3% -0.8% 6.3%

-1.4%

5.6%

3.9%

7.1%

2.1% -0.1%

-0.4%

-5.0%

-2.8%

-5.2% -4.8%

-4.0% 2.8%

6.9% 6.1%

0.6%

-10.8%

-11.2%

-5.9%

4.0% 4.1%

-3.7%

HOME CARE PERSONAL CARE CIGARETTE BABY CARE

6% 8% 13% 4%

Super Category Contribution and Growth - Total 6 Cities

Unit Value Change Volume Change Nominal Value Growth

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CONSUMERS ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

Source: Nielsen Global Survey Consumer Confidence Section (Q1’16), Retailer Sentiment Report Q1’16

71 72 76 75 74

Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16

RETAILER CONFIDENCE INDEX (RCI)

Retailer Confidence Index Calculation • State of retail industry • State of retailer’s own business • Stocking intention in the next 12Ms

106 112 104 105 108 109

Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI)

Consumer Confidence Index Calculation • Perceptions of local job prospects • Perceptions of state of personal finances over

the next 12 months • Perceptions of good/bad time for people to buy

the things they want and need over the next 12 months

+6 +1

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AFTER Q2’16, FUTURE STILL LIES MANY CHALLENGES FOR MANUFACTURERS

• EXPECTED AVERAGE FORECAST as the most likely scenario , 95% chance will be within 2-3% of this scenario • EXPECTED MAX FORECAST most likely happens in optimistic market, with the signal of:

• Big increase in FDI. • Strengthening Forex • Big increase in consumer confidence.

• EXPECTED MIN FORECAST most likely happens in pessimistic market, with the signal of: • Recession – 2 periods of declining GDP growth • Tax hikes – introduction of GST, gas prices tax increase • Political turmoil