vietnam real estate - now or never · 2018-10-12 · 2015 source: cbre vietnam, q2 2015. highest...
TRANSCRIPT
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE -NOW OR NEVER
Presented by: Marc TownsendManaging Director, CBRE Vietnam
18th July, 2015
2 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
*All the above articles were retrieved in June 2015..
1Infrastructure Investment
4 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
HCMC METRO LINES
• Metro Line 1 is the first one to be kicked-off in 2012 and scheduled to operate by 2020.
• Metro Line 2 also broke ground in January 2015 and is expected to be operational by 2020.
5 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
METRO LINE 1 TRIGGERS RESIDENTIAL LAUNCHES
Vista Verde
The Vista
PARCSpring
The Krista
2Regulation Changes
7 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
1) Background:• Legal basis for foreign ownership of residential units (and
whether this varies as value and or number of units increases)• Typical legal and agent fees upon purchase/ sale• Likely taxes/stamp duty etc. including capital gains tax, tax on
rental income. Typical insurance costs2) Deal:
• Available properties and typical asking prices• A view on best locations for our purpose• Likely realisable rents and demand for properties• Property management fees3) Deal exit:
• Tax rules upon sale (as individual entity)• Restrictions on sale e.g. property holding period• Restrictions on repatriating capital or profits out of Vietnam
EFFECTIVE FROM 1ST JULY, 2015
FAQs
Buying a condo in Vietnam –A guide for foreigners
All you need to know…
LAW | ACCOUNTS | TRANFERRING FUNDS | DOCUMENTS REQUIRED | KEY TIPS
8 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
POSITIVE INTEREST LEVELSFROM FOREIGNERS FOR VIETNAM PROPERTY
3Condominium Market
10 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
Optimism ahead of regulation changesCONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Developers and buyers remain bullish
Absorption Rate
15,715 units launched in 1H 2015
174% y-o-y
10,494 units (of new launches)
sold in 1H 2015
67%
HCMC HANOI
10,187 units launched in 1H 2015
91% y-o-y
50%
5,130 units (of new launches)
sold in 1H 2015
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2015.
11 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
Busy Launches in Q2 2015: 19 projects – 8,528 units launchedCONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
~57% sold
1450
Project(s)Units
1285
1408
1740
1352
1250 2
3,054
1136
1335 6
1,653
1500
1209
1156
Highest number of launches ever for a single quarter
Continued to move to the East!
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2015.
19% q-o-q126% y-o-y
Implication for districts only, not exact project location
1H 2015: 15,715 unitsWhole year 2010: ~20,000
unitsWhole year 2007: ~10,300
units
HCMC
12 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
Optimism ahead of anticipation on regulation changesCONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Sold Units, HCMC
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1H2015
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2015.
Highest take-up for a single quarter
Q2 2015: ~10,000 units(both new and previous launches)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2015.
Take-up per period, HCMC
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2013 2014 1H 2015
High-end Mid-end Affordable
13 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
New vs. Old Products – HCMC CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Primary vs. Secondary Price of Typical Condominiums in HCMC
Primary Asking Price
Secondary Asking Price
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2015.
Absorption Rate67%
HCMC1H 2015
Launched15,715 units
Sold10,494 units(for only new launches in the review period)
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
Sel
ling
Pric
e (U
S$
psm
)
The Manor-Phase 1
Saigon Pearl - Sapphire
The Vista An Phu
Thao Dien Pearl
Cantavil Premier
Masteri Thao Dien
Estella Heights
Vinhomes Central Park
Gateway Thao Dien
14 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
Unit Type/ Size ChangesCONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Condominium Unit Type Change, HCMC
9%
7%
12%
3%
63%
59%
45%
35%
27%
27%
28%
45%
1%
7%
14%
16%
After 2012
Before 2012
After 2012
Before 2012
Sec
ond
tier
Firs
t tie
r
1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR+
45
50
48
65
62
91
78
110
80
110
100
125
120 sm
250 sm
200 sm
300 sm
After 2012
Before 2012
After 2012
Before 2012
Sec
ond
tier
Firs
t tie
r
1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR+
Condominium Unit Size Change, HCMC
(*): First tier: Luxury and high-end products; Second tier: Mid-end and affordable productsSource: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2015.
Vista Verde• 1BR: 63.62 sm• 2BR: 85.89 – 92.29 sm• 3BR: 135.02 – 139.72 sm• 4BR: 159.96 – 212.79 sm
The Krista:• 2BR: 70.58 – 71.53 sm• 3BR: 91.72 – 91.88 sm• Duplex: 152.5 sm
Estella Heights• 1BR: 54 sm• 2BR: 80 – 94 sm• 3BR: 118 – 137 sm
15 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
Vietnam’s Price CompetitivenessCONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
Hanoi HCMC Phnom Penh Manila Jakarta Bangkok
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q2 2015.
Primary Asking Price (US$ psm)
16 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
OutlookCONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
Potential higher prices for projects located in District 2, District 7 and developed by well-known developers
Singaporean and Korean developers are starting design, development plans and get ready to kick-off huge projects while Japanese investors and Joint Venture are looking for residential development sites.
Sales volumes are expected to continue improve as the market has seen the return of not only end-users but also investors (and speculators).
New launches will continue their strong run, esp. in Districts 2, 9, Thu Duc and Binh Thanh thanks to the improving infrastructure. The high-end segment will increase more strongly than the last 2 years
4District 2 Condominium Market
18 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
DISTRICT 2 – ACCESSIBILITY & INT’L SCHOOLS
District 1 CBD
To Vung Tau
BIS
AIS ISH
AIS
19 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
DISTRICT 2 – IP LINKSTAN AN
THIEN TAN
THANH PHU
SONG MAY
AMATA
AGTEX LOTECOHO NAI
BAU XEODAU GIAY
CAM MY
PHUOC BINH
GO DAU
ONG KEO
BIEN HOA IBIEN HOA II
BINH ANSONG THAN
BINH DUONGLINH TRUNG 1
SAIGON HI-TECH PARK
GIANG DIEN
TAM PHUOC
AN PHUOC
LONG DUC
LOC AN - BINH SON
LONG THANH
NHON TRACH I
NHON TRACH II – NHON PHU
NHON TRACH II – LOC KHANG
NHON TRACH IV
NHON TRACH V
NHON TRACH III
20 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
British International School Australian International School Hoan My Thao Dien International Clinic Metro An Phu
Facilities and AmenitiesDISTRICT 2
Existing local facilities and amenities
……Within 20 minutes ride
International schools: AIS, HIS, BIS
Shopping centres: Parkson, Lotte cinema, Megastar
Supermarkets: Big C, Metro An Phu, An Phusuppermarket
Metroline
Metro An Phu
Saigon Bridge
City centre
Thu Thiemtunnel
ParksonCantavil
DISTRICT 2
5 m
ins
4 min
s
21 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
High rental yield encouraging investorsCONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
(*) Selected projects:•District 7: Sunrise City, Sky Garden, Panorama;•District 2: Xi Riverview Palace, The Estella – phase 1, The Vista An Phu.
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
Rental yield at selected high-end projects
7.4%
7.5%
7.7%
7.80%7.8%
8.0%
8.1%8.05%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
7.8%
8.0%
8.2%
2012 2013 2014 Q2 2015
District 7 District 2
22 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
DISTRICT 2 CONDOMINIUM FOR SALEA Green Living
Prime location of District 2
• Established high-end community;
• Low population density;
• Good supported facilities and amenities: easy to access to supermarkets, international schools.
IP Link• Suitable living place for executives working at the
surrounding industrial parks
Security • Good management – Gated and guarded
development
Easy Connectivity
• In proximity to D1 via Saigon Bridge, Thu ThiemTunnel/Bridge and Metro Line No. 1;
• Two marinas: Riverside and Thao Dien Village.
23 CBRE | VIETNAM REAL ESTATE – TIME TO RECALIBRATE | JULY 2015
AT CBRE, WE LIVE AND BREATHE THE BUSINESS OF REAL ESTATEEvery quarterQUARTERLY REPORT
Ad-hocVIEWPOINT & SPECIAL REPORT
Every week NEWS UPDATE
Every monthDASHBOARD
Every quarterMARKETVIEW
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information containedherein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubtits accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessingthe relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only,exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribefor securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may bealtered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorisedpublication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arisingby reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
For more information regarding this presentation please contact:CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & ConsultingT +84 8 3824 6125 F +84 8 3823 8418Email: [email protected]