vietnam food processing market 2016

‹#›

Vietnam Food Processing Market 2016

Date of the report: 1st August 2016

Part of StoxPlus’s Market Research Report Series for Vietnam www.biinform.com

@ 2016 StoxPlus Corporation.

All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of StoxPlus, and as such no part of this publication may be

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2

Date: 1st August, 2016

Dear Our Valued Customer,

Re: The publication of Vietnam Food Processing Market Report 2016

I am pleased to pleased to announce the publication of Vietnam Food

Processing Market Report 2016.

The purpose of research work is to have an in-depth understanding of

food processing market in Vietnam and assessing potential of the

market. We also highlighted current market size as well as potential

demand of commercial cold storage for each segment. We believe it

should be further studied and evaluated.

In addition to our experience in this industry, we have conducted

various discussions and interviews with industry players, distribution

partners at executive levels to grasp local insights and the practical

ways of the market in Vietnam.

We understand that this is a targeted but also an open research. We

would be happy to provide any further information to address any

questions that you may have, for any specific sector or target business

in Vietnam. Our ultimate objective is to bring real values to our clients

via in-depth research and practical local insights.

Should you have any questions, please contact I myself or our Managing

Director, Ms. Lan Nguyen at +84-4-35626962 (ext. 109) or her email:

[email protected]

Yours sincerely,

Nguyen Quang Thuan

CEO

StoxPlus Corporation

StoxPlus Joint Stock Company

Head Office

5th Floor, Anh Minh Building

36 Hoang Cau, Dong Da

Hanoi, Vietnam

telephone: +84 (4) 3562 6962

facsimile: +84 (4) 3562 5055

stoxplus.com

Ho Chi Minh City Branch

2nd Floor, May Plaza

63D Vo Van Tan Street, District 3

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

telephone: +84 (8) 3823 3485

facsimile: +84 (8) 3827 3068

mailto:[email protected]

3

Table of Contents

Part Content Page

Executive Summary

1 Vietnam Food Processing Market Overview

1.1 Market structure and description

1.2 Market Size

1.3 Value chain structure

1.4 Major M&A

2 Segment Analysis

2.1 Processed Seafood

Seafood Industry

Supply Analysis

Demand Analysis

Distribution

Competitive Landscape

2.2 Processed Meat

Meat Industry

Supply Analysis

Demand Analysis

Distribution

Part Content Page


2.3 Milk products

Milk Industry

Supply Analysis

Demand Analysis

Distribution


2.4 Processed Fruit & Vegetables

Fruit & Vegetables Industry

Supply Analysis

Demand Analysis

Distribution


3 Macroeconomic Situation & Regulatory Framework

Macroeconomics

Regulatory Framework

4

Executive Summary

This content is intentionally removed for demo purpose

5

Executive Summary (cont.)


6

Abbreviation

No. Abbrev. Stand for

1 bn billion

2 Agifish An Giang Fisheries Import & Export Co.

3 CHOLIMEX Cho Lon Import & Export Co.

4 CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

5 FPO Farmer Producer Organization

6 FMCG Fast-Moving Consumer Goods

7 FDI Foreign Direct Investment

8 F&V Fruit & Vegetables

9 Hanfoco Halong Canned Food Co.

10 IDP International Dairy Producers

11 IDI International Development Investment

12 MT Metric Ton

13 mn million

14 MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

15 SAGRI Saigon Agriculture & Processed Food

16 SATRA Saigon Trading Group

17 STAPIMEX Soc Trang Seafood Jsc

18 SOE State-owned Enterprise

19 VEGETIGI Tien Giang Vegetables & Fruit Jsc

20 Tbd To Be Determined

21 US$ US Dollar

22 VASEP Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers

7

Contents

Section 1: Vietnam Food Processing Market Overview


1.2 Market Size


1.4 Major M&A

8

Food processing market is comprised of 4 segments: Processed Seafood, Processed

Meat, Milk Products and Processed Fruit and VegetablesFigure 01: Market Structure


Market Structure

Food Processing

Processed Meat

Processed Seafood

Milk Products

Processed Fruit and

Vegetables


9

Contents



1.2 Market Size


1.4 Major M&A

10

Vietnamese food industry witnessed steady growth over the last few years fueled by

increasing expenditure of consumer


Market Size & Segmentation

Figure 02: Total Food consumption 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus, BMI

18.8

21.2

23.6

27.6

32.1

0

5

10

15

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US$bn

Food Consumption (USbn) % y-o-y

Figure 03: Average food and total expenditure per capita, 2006-

2014

Source: GSO, StoxPlus estimate

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

'000 V

ND

Food Expenditure Total Expenditure


11

Key Development Milestones of Vietnam Food Processing Market



Figure 04: Food processing industry key development milestones (including major companies in each segment)

Source: StoxPlus

1957

20162014 2015

1954 1990 2001 2011 2016

We are here

Vinamilk

1976

1995CP Vietnam

19982001

Vissan

1970

20091954


12

Food processing industry is divided into 4 segments



FOOD PROCESSING

PROCESSED SEAFOOD

PROCESSED FRUIT AND VEGETABLES

PROCESSED MEAT

Milk products


13

Besides processed seafood, most food processing segments have grown, on average,

15% annually since 2011



Figure 05: Food processing market size, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus

Processed Seafood Processed Meat

Milk productsProcessed Fruit &

Vegetables

Food Processing

CAGR

CAGR CAGR

CAGR*CAGR is calculated for period 2010-2014. The sharp

decline in 2015 is excluded as an outlier.


14

Contents



1.2 Market Size


1.4 Major M&A

15

Vietnamese food processing industry is still fragmented and mainly focuses on

preliminary processing stage


Value Chain Structure

ProductionLocal Trading & Processing

Secondary Processing

Packaging Distribution Export/Retail


16

Contents



1.2 Market Size


1.4 Major M&A

17

Vietnam food processing industry witnessed some major M&A deals, especially from

South Korea


Major M&A

Acquirer Country Target company Deal value Year

1 South

Korea

2015

2 Japan 2015

3 Thailand 2015

4 South

Korea

2015

5 Vietnam 2016

Figure 06: Significant M&A deals in food processing industry, 2015-2016

Source: StoxPlus


18

Contents

Section 2: Segment Analysis


2.2 Processed Meat

2.3 Milk Products


19

Vietnam seafood domestic production continues the upward trend with total volume

of *** million tonnes in 2015


Processed Seafood

Figure 07: Domestic production of seafood, 2011-2015

Figure 08: Growth of Vietnam seafood market

• Vietnam seafood production consists of two main components,

namely (i) wild-caught and (ii) farm-raised. As of 2015, total

production volume reached *** million tonnes, of which approx.

***% are wild-caught.

Source: StoxPlus, VASEP


Seafood Industry


20

Both imported and exported seafood are used mainly as raw materials for

reprocessing


Processed Seafood

Figure 09: Vietnam seafood import and export value

Source: StoxPlus, General Customs

Seafood Industry


21


Processed Seafood

Figure 10: Domestic production of processed seafood, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus, MARD

Supply

Domestic production of processed seafood was equivalent to ***% of total seafood

production, of which ***% went into export


22

The *** regions possess a much higher capacity as well as more diverse product

types


Processed Seafood

Figure 11: Capacity of seafood processing companies, 2015


North

Average Real Capacity/Designed

Capacity of Region

Mekong Delta

Southeast

%

Central

Types of BusinessAverage Capacity

(MT/year)

State-owned

Private/JSC

FDI

Main processed products:




Supply


23

The concentration and high capacity of companies in *** and the *** are due to ***


Processed Seafood

Figure 12: Distribution of seafood processing companies, 2015


North

Mekong Delta

Southeast

Central

Supply


24

Most of the new factories are built in the South; however the biggest comes from

the leading player, ***, in Central Vietnam


Processed Seafood

Figure 13: New investments in seafood processing

No Owner Type of

investment

Location Year in

Operation

Capacity Total area

(m2)

Total

Investment

(US$)

1 New 2015

2 New 2016

3 Expansion 2016

4 New 2016

5 Expansion 2018

6 New 2016

7 Expansion 2015

8 New 2016

Source: StoxPlus

Supply


25

Growth of processed seafood sales depends mostly on growth of ***


Processed Seafood

Figure 14: Total sales of processed seafood by value, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus

Figure 15: Growth of processed seafood sales, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus*Conversion from VND to USD might lower the growth rates by 2-3% due to

depreciation of VND

Demand


26

...while domestic market contributed little but has experienced steady growth


Processed Seafood

Source: StoxPlus

Demand

Figure 16: Domestic sales of processed seafood by volume, 2011-2015


27

*** seafood are most preferred by both markets while domestic market also

consumed a relatively high amount of shelf stable seafood


Processed Seafood

Figure 17: Breakdown of sub-segment of domestic processed

seafood by value, 2014-2015

Figure 18: Breakdown of sub-segment of export processed

seafood by value, 2014-2015

Domestic market Export market

Source: StoxPlus Source: StoxPlus

Demand


28


Processed Seafood

Figure 19: Processed seafood value chain

Domestic

Export

Distribution


29

For domestic market, processed seafood is distributed mostly through traditional

grocery retailers


Processed Seafood

Figure 20: Distribution Channels, % value 2015

Convenience Stores

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Source: StoxPlus

Distribution


30

Processed seafood still has great potential with the government support if supply is

adequately controlled and anti-dumping law is successfully negotiated


Processed Seafood SWOT

WEAKNESSSTRENGTH

THREATSOPPORTUNITIES


31

DomesticExport

*** companies dominate export segment while *** is the leader in domestic with half

the market share


Processed Seafood

Figure 21: Processed Seafood Market share, % retail value 2015


Source: StoxPlus


32

The segment is dominated by *** with half the market share


Processed Seafood Competitive Landscape

Export Market Import Market


33

Overall, most processed seafood exporters had better returns compared to

companies serving domestic market


Processed Seafood

Figure 22: EBITDA % ratio of major processed seafood companies, 2015


Source: StoxPlus

Top domestic sale

Mainly export


34


Processed Seafood

Ha Long Canned Food Joint Stock Corporation

Ownership structure

Company Profiling Products and Services

Financial highlights

Source: Reported FS



35


Processed Seafood

Special Aquatic Products Joint Stock Company – SEASPIMEX VIETNAM

Ownership structure



Source: Reported FS



36


Processed Seafood

Angiang Fisheries Import Export Join Stock Company

Ownership structure



Source: Reported FS



37

Contents



2.2 Processed Meat

2.3 Milk Products


38

Vietnam domestic meat production continues the upward trend with total volume of

*** million MT in 2015

Figure 23: Domestic production of meat, 2015

Figure 24: Meat import to Vietnam, 2015

• We estimated that total meat production for three categories

namely pork, poultry and beef amount to approximately *** by

2015.



Processed Meat

Source: StoxPlus, Department of Livestock (MARD)

Source: StoxPlus, Department of Livestock (MARD) from General Customs

Volume

'000 tonnesPrice

US$/kg

Market size

US$mn

Pork

Poultry

Beef & Veal

Meat Indsutry


39

Domestic production of processed meat is still at a fairly underdeveloped stage

Figure 25: Domestic production of processed meat, 2011-2015



Processed Meat Supply


40

*** companies have a much bigger capacity than *** ones due to ***

Figure 26: Distribution of meat processing companies, 2015



Processed Meat


Capacity of Region

North

Central

South


(MT/year)

State-owned

Private/JSC

FDI

Supply


41

Vietnam only has *** companies with industrial processing capacity of *** products

per year

Figure 27: Distribution of meat processing companies, 2015



Processed Meat

Government-owned

Private/JSC

North

Central

South

Supply


42


Processed Meat

Figure 28: New investments in meat processing

No Owner Type of

investment

Location Year in

Operation

Capacity Total area

(m2)

Total

Investment

(US$)

1 Expansion P1:2015

P2:2020

2 New 2015

3 New 2016

4 New 2016

Source: StoxPlus

Supply


43

More competition resulted in *** growth rate of processed meat segment


Processed Meat

Figure 29: Total sales of processed meat by value, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus

Figure 30: Total sales of processed meat by volume, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus

*Conversion from VND to USD might lower the growth rates by 2-3% due to

depreciation of VND

Demand


44

Shelf stable meat and chilled processed meat took up more than ***% of total value

and volume of processed meat


Processed Meat

Figure 31: Breakdown of sub-segment of processed meat by

value, 2011-2015

Figure 32: Breakdown of sub-segment of processed meat by

volume, 2011-2015

Demand


45

The Vietnamese food market is witnessing an increasingly fierce competition

between sausage manufacturers


Processed Meat

Figure 33: Breakdown of Processed Poultry Product, % of sales

value, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus, Euromonitor

Figure 34: Market share of sausage manufacturers, 2015

Source: StoxPlus estimation

Demand


46

Vissan is a prime example showing remarkable profitability from processed meat

segment, especially in the *** category


Processed Meat

Figure 35: Breakdown of Vissan gross profit margin structure,

9M2015

Source: StoxPlu, Vissan’s annual report

Demand

Steady and high gross profit margin


47


Processed Meat

Figure 36: Processed meat value chain

Distribution


48


Processed Meat

Figure 37: CP “3F” model (Feed – Farm – Food)

• All owned by CPCP Branding &

Marketing

Distribution


49

Similar to processed seafood, traditional grocery retailers is the dominating

distribution channel of processed meat



Processed Meat

Source: StoxPlus

Distribution


50


Processed Meat

WEAKNESSSTRENGTH


SWOT


51

Figure 39: Processed meat Market share, % retail value 2015


Processed Meat

Source: StoxPlus



52


Processed Meat

Domestic Companies Foreign-owned Companies



53


Processed Meat

Figure 40: Gross profit margin of major processed meat companies, 2014

Source: StoxPlus



54


Processed Meat

Vissan Co., ltd

Ownership structure



Source: Reported FS



55


Processed Meat

Cau Tre Export Goods Processing Joint Stock Company

Ownership structure



Source: Reported FS



56

Company Profiling Production Sites

C.P Vietnam

Key financial indicators of C.P Vietnam in 2014

Source: StoxPlus

Production sites of C.P Vietnam (food processing business)

Source: Vietnam Fishery Society, Company Website

Phu Nghia – Ha Noi

• 01 food processing plant Ben Tre

• 01 seafood processing plant

Thua Thien – Hue

• 01 frozen shrimp processing

plant

Key Financials


Processed Meat Competitive Landscape


57

Contents



2.2 Processed Meat

2.3 Milk Products


58

Vietnam domestic milk production could only fulfill ***% of domestic demand,

leading to high import value of milk and milk products

Figure 41: Domestic production of milk, 2010-2015 Figure 42: Milk and milk products import to Vietnam, 2015



Milk Products


Supply


59

As Milk products is a concentrated industry, most factories belong to a few major

players with *** owning the most factories

Figure 43: Distribution of Milk products factories, 2015

Source: StoxPlus


Milk Products

North

Central

South

Vinamilk

TH True Milk

Nutifood

Supply


60

Even though there are more factories in the ***, the ones in the *** have bigger

capacity since they were built more recently thus owning better technology

Figure 44: Capacity of major Milk products companies (mn liters),

2015

Source: StoxPlus


Milk Products

North

Central

South

Total

***mn liters

Total

Total

Supply


61

To serve the growing industry, all main players in the industry continue to expand

or build new factories to increase their capacity


Milk Products

Figure 45: New investments in Milk products

No Owner Type of

investment

Location Year in

Operation

Capacity Total area

(m2)

Total

Investment

(US$)

1

2

3

Source: StoxPlus

Supply


62

Valued at ***US$bn, Milk products is the largest food processing segment


Milk Products

Figure 46: Total sales of Milk products by value, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus

Figure 47: Total sales of Milk products by volume, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus


depreciation of VND

Demand


63

*** dominated two thirds of the segment thanks to increasing *** consumption per

capita in the last 5 years

Figure 48: Breakdown of sub-segment of Milk products by %

value, 2011-2015


Milk Products

Figure 49: Breakdown of sub-segment of Milk products by %

volume, 2011-2015

Demand


64

Growth was experienced across all segments with *** products having the highest

CAGR during 2011-2015 at ***%


Milk Products

Figure 50: Breakdown of total sales of Milk products by value

(US$mn), 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus

Demand

CAGR ***%

CAGR 12%

CAGR ***%CAGR ***%


65


Milk Products

Figure 51: Milk products value chain

Distribution


66

Milk is distributed mainly in traditional grocery retailers…

Figure 52: Milk Distribution Channels, % value 2015


Milk Products

Source: StoxPlus

Supermarkets and

hypermarkets share the

equally low contribution

Distribution


67

… while Yoghurt is becoming popular in modern grocery retailers

Figure 53: Yoghurt Distribution Channels, % value 2015


Milk Products

Source: StoxPlus

Distribution


68


Milk Products

WEAKNESSSTRENGTH


SWOT


69

Vinamilk and Friesland Campina maintain their leading position with ***% total

market share

Figure 54: Milk products Companies Market share, % retail value

2015


Milk Products

Source: StoxPlus



70


Milk Products

Figure 55: Breakdown of market share per segment, 2015

Source: StoxPlusSource: StoxPlus

Milk and milk products

Others

Cheese Yoghurt

Milk products



71


Milk Products




72


Milk Products

Figure 56: Gross profit margin of major Milk products companies, 2013-

2014

Source: StoxPlus



73

Vietnam Dairy Product Joint Stock Company (VINAMILK)

Ownership structure




Milk Products

Source: Reported FS



74

FrieslandCampina Vietnam

Ownership structure




Milk Products

Source: Reported FS



75

TH Food Chain Joint Stock Company (TH True Milk)

Ownership structure




Milk Products

Source: Reported FS



76

Contents



2.2 Processed Meat

2.3 Milk Products


77

Vietnam fruit & vegetables sector posts a good performance in the period 2010–

2015 with export value of US$***bn in 2015

Figure 57: Fruit & vegetables import/export value in Vietnam

Figure 58: Fruit & vegetables export volume by products

Source: Vinafruit


Processed Fruit & Vegetables


Fruit & Vegetables Industry


78

Domestic production of processed fruit & vegetables depends on the growth of

export market

Figure 59: Domestic production of processed F&V, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus estimation


Processed Fruit & Vegetables Supply


79

Figure 60: Distribution of F&V processing companies, 2015




%

%

North

Central

South


Capacity of Region%


(MT/year)

State-owned

Private/JSC

FDI

Supply


80

There are only *** industrial-grade companies produce processed fruit & vegetables

in Vietnam

Figure 61: Distribution of F&V processing companies, 2015




Government-owned

Private/JSC

FDI

North

Central

South

Supply


81

Most new investments come from companies that mainly serve the export market



Figure 62: New investments in processed fruit & vegetables

No Owner Type of

investment

Location Year in

Operation

Capacity Total area

(m2)

Total

Investment

(US$)

1 New 2017

2 New 2017

3 New 2016

4 New 2017

5 New 2016

Source: StoxPlus

Supply


82

Vietnamese customers’ *** is the biggest barrier for domestic market to grow



Figure 63: Domestic sales of processed F&V by value, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus

Figure 64: Domestic sales of processed F&V by volume, 2011-2015

Source: StoxPlus


depreciation of VND

Demand


83

The most popular products were *** due to its diverse uses

Figure 65: Breakdown of sub-segment of processed F&V by

value, 2011-2015

Figure 66: Breakdown of sub-segment of processed F&V by

volume, 2011-2015


Processed Fruit & Vegetables Demand


84



Figure 67: Processed fruit & vegetables value chain

Distribution


85




Source: StoxPlus

Distribution


86



WEAKNESSSTRENGTH


SWOT


87

Figure 69: Processed Fruit & Vegetables Market share, % retail value

2015



Source: StoxPlus



88






89



Figure 70: Net profit margin of major processed fruit & vegetables companies, 2013-2014

Source: StoxPlus



90

Vietnam National Vegetable, Fruit and Agricultural Product Corporation JSC (Vegetexco)

Ownership structure





Source: Reported FS



91

An Giang Fruit-Vegetables and Foodstuff Joint Stock Company (ANTESCO)

Ownership structure





Source: Reported FS



92

Contents

Section 3: Macroeconomics & Regulatory Framework

3.1 Macroeconomics

3.2 Regulatory Framework

93

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Q1/05

Q2/05

Q3/05

Q4/05

Q1/06

Q2/06

Q3/06

Q4/06

Q1/07

Q2/07

Q3/07

Q4/07

Q1/08

Q2/08

Q3/08

Q4/08

Q1/09

Q2/09

Q3/09

Q4/09

Q1/10

Q2/10

Q3/10

Q4/10

Q1/11

Q2/11

Q3/11

Q4/11

Q1/12

Q2/12

Q3/12

Q4/12

Q1/13

Q2/13

Q3/13

Q4/13

Q1/14

Q2/14

Q3/14

Q4/14

Q1/15

Q2/15

Q3/15

Q4/15

Q1/16

Q2/16

GDP Growth CPI


Macroeconomics

Vietnamese economy to slow down after a strong year

Figure 71: Vietnam’s GDP growth (q-o-q) and CPI over the last 11 year

Source: StoxPlus, GSO

GDP Growth 1H2016

↑ 5.55%

CPI 1H2016

↑ 2.35%

Well performed

Struggled

Restructured & recovered


94

No. Country No. of projects US$mn

1 South Korea

2 Japan

3 Singapore

4 Taiwan

5 Hong Kong

6 China

7 BritishVirginIslands

8 Malaysia

9 Cayman Islands

10 Other

TOTAL


Macroeconomics

Foreign direct investment (“FDI”) to climb up in 1H2016

Figure 72: Registered and disbursed FDI in Vietnam, 2015-1H2016

Source: StoxPlus, MPI

Registered 1H2016

US$11.3bn (↑105%)

Disbursed 1H2016

US$7.3bn (↑15%)

Figure 73: Registered FDI into Vietnam, 1H2016

Source: StoxPlus, MPI


95


Macroeconomics

Figure 74: FMCG growth 2015 vs. 2014

Source: StoxPlus, Nielsen

Figure 75: Value contribution by categories

Source: StoxPlus, Nielsen

Q4 2015 +/- vs Q3 2015

VIETNAM +

INDONESIA +

THAILAND +

PHILIPPINES -

MALAYSIA -

TAIWAN +

HONG KONG -

SINGAPORE -

CHINA -

FMCG: Vietnam’s volume growth 2015 vs. 2014 is only behind Thailand and

Philippines


96

Contents


3.1 Macroeconomics

3.2 Regulatory Framework

97



The government has set clear goals for segments within the food processing industry


98



The government has set clear goals for segments within the food processing industry

(cont.)


99



Hygiene and Food safety is becoming a main focus of regulation


100



Hygiene and Food safety is becoming a main focus of regulation (cont.)


101

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Publishing License No. 2651 – 2016/CXBIPH/95 -47/HĐ dated on August 13th, 2016

‹#›

Contact us at StoxPlus

Lan Nguyen

Managing Director

+84 (0) 43562 69 62 (ext. 109)

+84 (0) 964 946 760

[email protected]

Hoang Le

Associate Research Manager

+84 (0) 43562 69 62 (ext. 109)

+84 (0) 985 152 028

[email protected]

Head Office

5th Floor, Anh Minh Building

36 Hoang Cau Street

Hanoi, Vietnam

+ 84 (4) 3562 6962

Ho Chi Minh City Branch

2nd Floor, May Plaza

63D Vo Van Tan Street, District 3

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

+84 (8) 3823 3485

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