victoria chemicals student template

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VA chemicals case study

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(A) Exh. 2 Exhibit 2VICTORIA CHEMICALS (A)Frank Greystock's DCF Analysis of Merseyside Project(Financial values in millions of British Pounds)

AssumptionsAnnual Output (metric tons)250,000Discount rate7.0%Output Gain/Original Output7.0%Tax Rate30%Price/ton (pounds sterling)675Investment Outlay (mill.)14.0Inflation Rate 3%Inflation Rate (prices and costs)0.0%Depreciable Life (years)152 MilGross Margin (ex. Deprec.)12.50%Salvage Value0Old Gross Margin11.5%WIP Inventory/Cost of Goods3.0% Energy Savings/SalesYr. 1-51.25%Months Downtime, Construction1.5 Yr. 6-100.75%Preliminary Engineering Costs0.5Yr. 11-150.0%Overhead/Investment3.5%

123456789101112131415YearNow2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120221. Estimate of Incremental Gross ProfitNew Output (tons)267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500267,500Lost Output--Construction(33,438)New Sales (Millions)142.19162.51162.51180.56180.56180.56180.56180.56180.56180.56180.56180.56180.56180.56180.56New Gross Margin13.8%13.8%13.8%13.8%13.8%13.3%13.3%13.3%13.3%13.3%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%New Gross Profit19.5522.3422.3424.8324.8323.9223.9223.9223.9223.9222.5722.5722.5722.5722.57Old Output250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000250,000Old Sales168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75168.75Old Gross Profit19.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.41Incremental Gross Profit0.152.942.945.425.424.524.524.524.524.523.163.163.163.163.16

2. Estimate of Incremental WIP inventoryNew WIP inventory4.674.204.204.674.674.704.704.704.704.704.744.744.744.744.74Old WIP inventory4.484.484.484.484.484.484.484.484.484.484.484.484.484.484.48Incremental WIP inventory0.19-0.28-0.280.190.190.220.220.220.220.220.260.260.260.260.263. Estimate of Incremental DepreciationNew Depreciation1.871.621.401.221.050.910.790.690.590.510.670.670.670.670.674. Overhead0.490.490.490.490.490.490.490.490.490.490.490.490.490.490.495. Prelim. Engineering Costs0.50 Pretax Incremental Profit-2.710.831.053.723.883.123.243.343.433.512.002.002.002.002.006. Cash Flow Adjustments Less Capital Expenditures-14.00 Add back Depreciation1.871.621.401.221.050.910.790.690.590.510.670.670.670.670.67 Less Added WIP inventory-0.190.470.00-0.470.00-0.030.000.000.000.00-0.040.000.000.000.007. Free Cash Flow-14.00-0.222.672.133.353.773.073.063.033.002.972.032.072.072.072.07NPV =8.26IRR =14.7%Shares Outstanding92.87124New Gross Profit19.551533203122.34460937522.34460937524.8273437524.8273437523.9245312523.9245312523.9245312523.9245312523.9245312522.570312522.570312522.570312522.570312522.5703125New Depreciation1.86666666671.61777777781.40207407411.21513086421.05311341560.91269829360.79100518770.68553782940.59413278550.51491508070.6693896050.6693896050.6693896050.6693896050.669389605EBT17.684866536520.726831597220.942535300923.612212885823.774230334423.011832956423.133526062323.238993420623.330398464523.409616169321.90092289521.90092289521.90092289521.90092289521.900922895New After Tax 30%12.379406575514.508782118114.659774710616.528549020116.641961234116.108283069516.193468243616.267295394416.331278925216.386731318515.330646026515.330646026515.330646026515.330646026515.3306460265Old Gross Profit19.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.4119.41Old After Tax 30%13.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.58437513.584375Incremental Gross Profit-1.20496842450.92440711811.07539971062.94417402013.05758623412.52390806952.60909324362.68292039442.74690392522.80235631851.74627102651.74627102651.74627102651.74627102651.7462710265-0.0129746133