vermont renewable power supply acquisition authority...

Vermont Renewable Power Supply Acquisition Authority

Project UpdateOctober 2, 2003

2© 2003 Lexecon Inc. All rights reserved.

Topics for Discussion• Bankruptcy Status

• Asset Profile

• Valuation Approach

• Market for Output

• Financing

• Risks and Benefits

• Next Steps

• Executive Session


Bankruptcy Process and Status• PG&E and six wholly-owned subsidiaries, including USGen New England,

filed for Chapter 11 protection on July 8, 2003.

• USGen NE’s petition is separate from the other subsidiaries.

• Some PG&E NEG entities have not filed.

• Based on discussions with PG&E’s Chief Executive and Restructuring Officer (Joe Bondi, Alvarez & Marsal) and the Company’s financial advisor (Lazard):

– A restructuring plan, including both ongoing enterprise and M&A alternatives, is under consideration.

– There is a good deal of uncertainty among creditors regarding their preferred path.– Lazard will conduct any asset sales; they hope to solicit interest in some/all assets in 30-45

days.– Interest in all and parts of USGen NE’s assets is expected (based on unsolicited interest).– Disposition of Bear Swamp, Salem Harbor, Brayton Point and Manchester Street will be

key issues.– Alvarez & Marsal and Lazard are aware of Vermont’s interests in the hydros.


USGen NE Assets

Facility Fuel LocationBrayton Point 1,599 Coal /Oil Somerset, MA

Salem Harbor 745 Coal /Oil Salem, MA

Bear Swamp 573 Hydro-Pumped Storage Monroe Bridge, MA

CT and Deerfield River Systems 573 Hydro VT, NH, MA

Manchester Street 495 Natural Gas Providence, RI

Total 3,985

Source: PG&E NEG Website.

Capacity


NHVT

COMERFORD – 164 MW

MOORE - 192MW

MCINDOES – 13MW

WILDER – 36MW

NHMA

BELLOWS FALLS – 41MW

SOMERSET

SEARSBURG – 4MW

HARRIMAN – 34MW

SHERMAN – 7MW

DEERFIELD 2, 3, 4, & 5 – 32MW

HYDRO ASSET OVERVIEW

VERNON – 22MW

CONNECTICUT RIVER FACILITIES

DEERFIELD RIVER FACILITIES


Hydroelectric Generation Profile

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

MooreComerfordMcIndoesWilderBellows FallsVernonSearsburgHarrimanShermanDfld #5Lower Dfld (#2-4)

Connecticut River Facilities

Deerfield RiverFacilities

Mon

thly

Ene

rgy

Qua

ntiti

es (M

Wh)

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

April

May

June

July

Augu

st

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r


Valuation Approach

Valuation based on“typical” industry buyer

Valuation based onVermont financing, cost structure, and market for output

Base case

Low case

High case

Lower market pricesDry hydro conditionsHigher capital and operating expenses


Base Case Modeling Assumptions for Hydroelectric Facilities(Modeling Period 2004-2013)

• Facility average water year monthly energy production projections:– 50+ years of CT and Drfld river flow gauge data used to define averages;– Values for CT river facilities, Harriman and Searsburg based on historical data

recorded by facility owners between 1978-1999.– Drfld facilities below Harriman based on recently collected flow data adjusted

to represent an average water year.

• Facility monthly minimum capacities based on operational constraints defined by re-licensing agreements (monthly minimum river flows).

• Oil and Gas Prices:– Starting prices based on ex post market data and FERC Form 423 filings;– Gas price forecast based on Nymex futures for first three years and EIA AEO

2003 thereafter. Oil price forecast based on AEO 2003.

• ISO New England inputs based on NEPOOL 2003 CELT Report:– 2004 unrestricted peak demand of 26,463 MW, 1.5% per annum growth;– 2004 energy consumption of 129,743GWh, 1.4% per annum growth;– Reserve margins range from 21-29% for the modeling period.


Fuel Price Assumptions

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Nom

inal

$ /

mm

Btu

Natural Gas FO2 FO6

Compound Annual Grow th Rate: Natural Gas 3.72% FO2 2.60% FO6 2.25%

Oil and Gas Price Chart

200420042004

200520052005

200620062006

200720072007

200820082008

200920092009

201020102010

201120112011

201220122012

201320132013

Compound Annual Growth Rate: Natural Gas 3.72% FO2 2.60% FO6 2.25%

Natural Gas

FO2

FO6

Nominal $ / mmBtu

5.0736666667

5.6508333333

4.3308333333

4.5748333333

5.62

4.31

4.6276666667

5.81

4.46

5.05

5.68

4.47

5.4237

5.857216

4.549119

5.7653931

6.0481612416

4.7515547955

6.1805014032

6.2906925074

4.8689181989

6.4672766683

6.5586760082

5.0339745259

6.7880535911

6.7961000797

5.1487491451

7.0493936543

7.1182352235

5.2903397466


Average Annual ISO New England Energy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$/M

Wh

Note: Years 200, 2001, and 2002 represent actual ISO New England spot market energy prices.Years 2004 – 2013 represent estimated MA Hub spot market energy prices obtained from modeling analysis.


Expense Assumptions• Operating and Maintenance Expenses

– CT River: Per USGen, February 2002 study by PA Consulting– Deerfield River: 1996 FERC Form 1, inflated– 5% added for profit of O&M service vendor in Vermont-as-Buyer case

• A&G Expenses: $250,000 / year (50% of VPPSA administrative expenses), inflated

• Energy Management Expenses: $750,000 / year, inflated (midpoint of Calpine indicative bid)

• Property Taxes: Actual payments by USGenNE for most recent fiscal year, inflated, except in the case of Comerford, McIndoes, Vernon and Deerfield 5 which are estimated proportionally using taxes paid by Moore (for the CT River) and Deerfield 2-4 (for the Deerfield River)

• Depreciation: 20-year MACRS

• Income Tax Rate– Corporate Buyer: 35% Federal; applicable State rates– VT-as-Buyer: State rates only

• Capital Expenditures– CT River: Per USGen, February 2002 study by PA Consulting; FMF Enhancement Fund included per FERC

relicensing settlement– Deerfield River: Assumed same $/kW as McIndoes; also includes estimated capital expenditures required

by FERC relicensing settlement

• Economic life of the plants: Through 2053

• Inflation: 2.5%


Market for the Output

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

NE Municipals VT Peak Demand US Gen Hydros

PeabodyBraintree

ChicopeeNorwoodHudson

LittletonMadison

VPPSA

BED

NEPOOL Peak – 26,463 MW

Sum

mer

Pea

k C

apac

ity (M

W)

Reading

CMEEC

MMWEC

GMP

CVPS

Chart1

NE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE MunicipalsNE Municipals

VT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak DemandVT Peak Demand

US Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen HydrosUS Gen Hydros

Peabody

Braintree

Chicopee

Norwood

Hudson

Littleton

Madison

VPPSA

BED

631

351

138.89

103.3

82.9

79.7

68.13

54.9

38.5

36.63

150

0

397

348

92.1290175102

55.16

545

For Graph

631

351

631351139103838068553937150

NE Municipals3973489255

VT Peak Demand545

US Gen Hydros

NE Municipalities

MunicipalityStateSummer Peak (MW)Winter Peak (MW)Revenue (millions)

Massachusetts Municipal Wholesale Electric Co.MA631276

Connecticut Municipal Electric Energy Coop.CT351278112

Reading Municipal Light Dept.MA13911461

Peabody Municipal Light PlantMA1038645

Braintree Electric Light Dept.MA837135

Chicopee Electric Light Dept.MA808133

Norwood Municipal Light Dept.MA685226

Hudson Light & Power Dept.MA555129

North Attleboro Electric Dept.MA544224

Littleton Electric Dept.MA393218

Madison Electric Works Dept.ME373715

South Hadley Electric Light Dept.MA262616

26463

Ashburnham4.59

Belmont26.49

Boylston5.2

Concord34.52

Croton11.28Groton11.28

Danvers66.01

Georgetown

Hingham33.88

Holden18.66

Holyoke64.2

Hull10.49

Ipswich18.53

Mansfield19.8

Marblehead27.92

Merrimac5.53

Middleton20.68

N. Attleboro47.54

Paxton3.5

Rowley7.75

Shrewsbury42.65

S. Hadley26.03

Sterling8.73

Templeton9.33

Wakefield38.05

W. Boylston10.08

Westfield69.72

TOTAL631


Vermont Supply and Demand Profile

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Other

Duke

Millstone

BED GT

CV Thermal

VT SPP

McNeil

CVPS Hydro

Berlin

Stonybrook

HQ

VT Yankee

Long

Ter

m C

ontr

acts

and

Ow

ned

Gen

erat

ion

(MW

)

Load with 15% Planning Margin

Vermont Chart

2004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004

2005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005

2006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006

2007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007

2008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008

2009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009

2010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102010

2011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011

2012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012

2013201320132013201320132013201320132013201320132013

2014201420142014201420142014201420142014201420142014

2015201520152015201520152015201520152015201520152015

2016201620162016201620162016201620162016201620162016

Load with 15% Planning Margin

VT Yankee

HQ

Stonybrook

Berlin

CVPS Hydro

McNeil

VT SPP

CV Thermal

BED GT

Millstone

Duke

Other

1026.1323701368

286.6642386667

287.467

59.03

44.7

40.72

35.54

31.4

27.79

23.6

19.82

20

199.005

1031.4498177135

286.6642386667

287.467

59.03

44.7

40.72

35.54

31.1906666667

27.79

23.6

19.82

20

199.005

1030.5148114727

286.6642386667

287.467

59.03

44.7

40.72

35.54

30.144

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

190.545

1036.0964475204

286.6642386667

287.467

59.03

44.7

40.72

35.54

30.144

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

190.11

1043.4337021266

286.6642386667

287.467

59.03

44.7

40.72

35.54

29.7312

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

168.4

1052.4883520952

286.6642386667

287.467

59.03

44.7

40.72

35.54

27.9072

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

155.74

1059.8603368008

286.6642386667

287.467

46.3

44.7

40.72

35.54

27.9072

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

145.75

1067.255522925

286.6642386667

287.467

46.3

44.7

40.72

35.54

27.9072

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

145.75

1077.5183902533

165.6214128889

282.9068333333

46.3

44.7

40.72

35.54

26.5632

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

145.75

1082.9591566653

0

257.036

46.3

0

40.72

35.54

17.76

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

144.31

1088.9049784044

0

257.036

46.3

0

40.72

35.54

17.0784

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

144.31

1096.5703200687

0

241.6606666667

46.3

0

40.72

35.54

17.0304

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

144.31

1103.6934070998

0

25.695

46.3

0

40.72

26.5

15.6864

27.79

23.6

19.82

0

144.31


Vermont Utility Perspectives• Baseload supply needs generally satisfied until 2010

• Some peaking and energy needs prior to then

• Hydro’s considered a large resource in relation to VT supply profile

• Open to the potential for replacing HQ or VT Yankee

• Support economic development uses as long as customers not cherry-picked


Options for Financial Structure

1. Tax Exempt Government Entity

2. Taxable Government Entity

3. Public / Private Partnership


Options Considered for FinancingMarket for OutputType of Financing Considerations

Tax ExemptRevenue

Bond

Taxable Revenue

Bond

- Smaller market+ No contract term limits

3. Spot, IOU and Municipal Contracts in VT, NE (?) (no volume cap used)

+ Larger market- Contracts with IOUs must be

< 3 years- Difficult to finance

4. Spot, IOU and Municipal Contracts in VT, NE (volume cap used)

+ No market limitations- Takes volume cap from other

VT uses for at least 2 years

2. All output allocated to VT utilities

- “Tax” on retail use collected by utility

- Too much power for needs

5. Spot, IOU and Municipal Contracts in VT, NE

+ No market limitations- Higher financing costs - Contracts required to finance

6. Private partner offtake; contracted back to VT utilities as needed

+ No market limitations- Higher financing costs

1. Municipals in VT, NE (?)


Financing Costs – Vermont as Buyer

8.75% 6.50%

11.00% 7.25%

Taxable Tax-Exempt

MostlyContracted

MostlyMerchant

Gross Base Case

$100 Moral Obligation – Less 0.25%

7.00% Net Base Case

• Financing Assumption: 100% tax-exempt; new VT Authority purchases facilitiesand sells power in the day-ahead ISO-NE market untilcontracts of 3-year duration or shorter can be obtained.

Note: Bond insurance may be a source of incremental interest cost savings. The Base Case does not include bond insurance.


Moral Obligation Bonds• If a pre-established project reserve fund is depleted, the State agrees to

approach the legislature for replenishment funds

• Potential for full notch of credit improvement, translating into an approximate 0.5% interest expense savings, or up to a $2.5 million annual savings on a $500 million purchase

• VT has over $500 million in moral obligation programs in place, primarily serving the Bond Bank

• No legal commitment to approve funding, but a disapproval would have negative credit implications for the State

• Should be used as an interest expense savings tool, not a transaction enabler

• Base Case assumes $100 million of moral obligation, creating a savings of 0.25%.


Financing Costs – Taxable Buyer• 12.3% used in Base Case

• Assumptions– 50% Debt / Equity (Source: Standard & Poor’s ratings criteria)– 18% Cost of Equity (Lexecon estimate)– 11% Cost of Debt (Lehman estimate)


Primary Risks• Market price risk

– Risk of price decline in New England power market– Scenario analysis will quantify this risk

• Marketing and Operating Risk– Inability to fulfill contracted power supplies– Mechanical failure causes power loss and cost of repair

• FERC License Renewal Risk– 80% of MW are under license until 2037 and 2042– FERC license expires 2018 for the remaining 20% (lower CT)– License renewals may contain flow restriction and/or required capital additions

• State ownership risks– Reduction in State credit rating if MO or GO is used– Operational suboptimization


Public Benefits• Potential for financial benefit

– Potential for cash generation to fund State programs– Economic Development potential to sell power at below-market rates or

stable long-term rates

• Environmental / watershed control

• Price hedge for participating utilities and their customers –operating expenses and financing costs are relatively fixed

• Pride of ownership


Considerations• Not confident of contracts by time of transaction

– Single resource in VT where load is satisfied– Cannot load-follow for a specific load– Utility POLR market requires a portfolio of resources

• Vermont’s supply needs are met until 2008– Real needs are 2012 and beyond– Realistic potential to utilize 50% of the resources for VT load

• Greatest potential is realized if assets are blended into a larger supply portfolio– Private wholesaler with other resources in the region (Constellation, FPL, Calpine)– Combined ownership with other supply agencies (MMWEC, CMEEC, VPSSA)

• Financing will be a challenge– Lack of contracts out-of-the-box– State reluctant to place taxpayers at risk (GO or MO) or forego other programs (volume cap)– Best tax-exempt options have requirements we are not confident can be fulfilled– Cannot be financed at fair market value without equity or State credit support


Considerations (continued)• Assets are encumbered

– Bankruptcy process does not ensure availability– If available, part of larger integrated asset portfolio– Auction will be competitive with an uncertain outcome

• Uncertain public benefit– Bulk of power exported for at least the next 10 years– Economic development contracts are a positive, but require time and flexibility to develop the

opportunities– Watershed and environmental management are under existing authorities

• Potential economic benefits are substantial– At fair market value, significant benefits could be derived– But financing limitations constrain the ability to capture benefits– Potential for public benefit in a carefully structured transaction with a private partner

• Execution would be complex– Bankruptcy– Private partner involvement– Legal and bond issues– Public approval process

Vermont Renewable Power Supply Acquisition Authority��Project UpdateTopics for DiscussionBankruptcy Process and StatusUSGen NE AssetsSlide Number 5Hydroelectric Generation ProfileValuation ApproachBase Case Modeling Assumptions for Hydroelectric Facilities�(Modeling Period 2004-2013)Fuel Price AssumptionsAverage Annual ISO New England EnergyExpense AssumptionsMarket for the OutputVermont Supply and Demand ProfileVermont Utility PerspectivesOptions for Financial StructureOptions Considered for FinancingFinancing Costs – Vermont as BuyerMoral Obligation BondsFinancing Costs – Taxable BuyerPrimary RisksPublic BenefitsConsiderationsConsiderations (continued)

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