verification highligths by wg5. 9° general meetingathens 18-21 september working package/task on...
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VERIFICATIONHighligths
by WG5
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Athens 18-21 September9° General Meeting
Working package/Task on “standardization”The “core”
Continuous parameters: • T2m, Td2m, Mslp, Wspeed• ME, RMSE• period Monthly means and SON, DJF, MAM, JJA (if
possible)• at least 00 UTC run
Precipitation:• 6h, 12 h and 24 cumulated• thresholds 0,2 2 5 10 mm/6h and mm/12h • thresholds 0,2 2 10 20 mm/24h• scores FBI, ETS
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SONMSLP
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DJFPRECFBI
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DJFPRECFBI
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MAMPRECFBI
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MAMPRECFBI
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MAMPRECETS
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MAMPRECETS
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Monthly precipitation, model, stations, January 2008
Minimum: 025%-tile: 36Median: 47.575%-tile: 61.3Maximum: 157
Minimum: 35.3425%-tile: 51.65Median: 64.4975%-tile: 72.95Maximum: 110.62
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Monthly precipitation, model, stations,
April 2008
Minimum: 025%-tile: 36.2Median: 49.375%-tile: 66Maximum: 133.3
Minimum: 29.4225%-tile: 50.14Median: 59.2675%-tile: 77.66Maximum: 118.47
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QPF verification of the 4 model versions at 7 km res. (COSMO-I7, COSMO-7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-ME) with the 2 model versions at 2 km res. (COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT)
Specifications:• Dataset: high resolution network of rain
gauges coming from COSMO dataset and Civil Protection Department 1300 stations
• Method: 24h/6h averaged cumulated precipitation value over 90 meteo-hydrological basins
Precipitation verification comparison among COSMO-I7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-7, COSMO-
ME, COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT(Elena Oberto, Massimo Milelli - ARPA Piemonte)
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Seasonal trends BIAS th 0.2mm/24h
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Seasonal trends BIAS th 20mm/24h
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Seasonal trends ETS th 0.2mm/24h
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Seasonal trends ETS th 20mm/24h
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• Not so strong differences
• COSMO-7 sligtly better on average
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• Strong differences during the single season
• COSMO-EU quite stable overestimation
• COSMO-7 bias and pod decrease (far reduction)
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• Not so strong differences
• COSMO-ME sligtly better on average
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• Strong differences during the single season
• COSMO-ME quite stable overestimation
• COSMO-I7 bias and pod decrease
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• COSMO-I2 sligtly better on average
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• COSMO-I2 trend seems to follow COSMO-I7 trend
• COSMO-I2 worsening: strong positive bias last summer (deep convection on), negative bias this spring (deep convection off)
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• No significant differences
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• Generally the same trend
• bias > 1
• Sligltly improvement for pod, ets,far
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• Bias overestimation peak during midday
• Best value peak for pod, ets, far during afternoon
• Spin-up problem for all the models especially COSMO-I7 and COSMO-I2
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• General worsening with forecast time
• The spin-up seems to disappear except for COSMO-I2
• Anomalous behaviour for COSMO-I2
• COSMO-7 underestimates
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10° COSMO General Meeting – Cracow 15-19 Sept 2008
SON 2007 CIT - CME
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10° COSMO General Meeting – Cracow 15-19 Sept 2008
SON 2007 CIT - CME
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10° COSMO General Meeting – Cracow 15-19 Sept 2008
DJF 2007-2008 CIT - CME
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10° COSMO General Meeting – Cracow 15-19 Sept 2008
DJF 2007-2008 CIT - CME
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10° COSMO General Meeting – Cracow 15-19 Sept 2008
MAM 2008 CIT - CME
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10° COSMO General Meeting – Cracow 15-19 Sept 2008
MAM 2008 CIT - CME
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10° COSMO General Meeting – Cracow 15-19 Sept 2008
JJA 2008 CIT - CME
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10° COSMO General Meeting – Cracow 15-19 Sept 2008
JJA 2008
CIT - CME
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COSMO GM 2008 Cracow
RMSE of Tmax 2m September 2006 - August 2007, COSMO-DE, vv=18, and vv =42, Start 00 UTC
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COSMO GM 2008 Cracow
RMSE of Tmax 2m September 2007 - August 2008, COSMO-DE, vv=18, and vv =42, Start 00 UTC
Introduction of new diagnosis for T2m
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The effect of new diagnosis of 2m temperature on forecast quality of COSMO-EU‘s maximum
temperature over Germany
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2m temperature diagnosticsimpact on mean diurnal cycleSummer 2007 Summer 2008
The (well known) errors of:- too strong temperature increase in the morning- maxima reached ~ 1.5-2 h too earlyis removed with the new 2m temperature diagnostics (introduced operationally 09.06.08)
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The effect of new diagnosis gusts on forecast quality of COSMO-EU‘s gusts over Germany
2006:Mean of observation: 6.8 m/sMean of forecast : 8.8 m/sRMSE at 72 h :4.2 m/s
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The effect of new diagnosis gusts on forecast quality of COSMO-EU‘s gusts over Germany
2008:Mean of observation: 6.6 m/sMean of forecast : 7.7 m/sRMSE at 72 h :3.5 m/s
2006:Mean of observation: 6.8 m/sMean of forecast : 8.8 m/sRMSE at 72 h :4.2 m/s
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41 Verification results of COSMO at MeteoSwiss in 2008 and experiences with CVSWG5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15.09.2008
windgust: old vs new for 16.01.-17.03.08
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42 Verification results of COSMO at MeteoSwiss in 2008 and experiences with CVSWG5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15.09.2008
windgust: old vs new for 16.01.-17.03.08
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43 Verification results of COSMO at MeteoSwiss in 2008 and experiences with CVSWG5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15.09.2008
Verification global radiation: Kloten
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44 Verification results of COSMO at MeteoSwiss in 2008 and experiences with CVSWG5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15.09.2008
Verification global radiation: Kloten
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45 Verification results of COSMO at MeteoSwiss in 2008 and experiences with CVSWG5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15.09.2008 10th COSMO
General Meeting, Cracow, Poland
T2m
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
COSMOGR SKIRON ECMWF
BIASRMSE Td2m
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
COSMOGR SKIRON ECMWF
BIASRMSE
MSLP
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
COSMOGR SKIRON ECMWF
BIASRMSE Wind Speed
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
COSMOGR SKIRON ECMWF
BIASRMSE
Comparison of all operational models at HNMS
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46 Verification results of COSMO at MeteoSwiss in 2008 and experiences with CVSWG5 Parallel Session of COSMO GM, 15.09.2008 10th COSMO
General Meeting, Cracow, Poland
>0.1mm/6h POD FAR ETS POFD KSS FBI HSS ORSS
COSMOGR 0.723 0.610 0.293 0.092 0.631 1.852 0.454 0.925 SKIRON 0.747 0.601 0.305 0.093 0.656 1.872 0.468 0.934 ECMWF 0.953 0.770 0.165 0.258 0.694 3.346 0.284 0.966
POD-FAR: >0.1mm/6h
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
POD
FAR
Precipitation statistical scores…
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Observations: Autumns 2005-2007
ECMWF AUT2005-2007
North-West North Appenine N-East Centre of Italy Sout of Italy Sardinia
99 th perc
90 th perc
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COSMO-I7: Autumns 2005-2007
North-West North Appenine N-East Centre of Italy Sout of Italy Sardinia
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ECMWF: Autumns 2005-2007
OSSERVATI AUTUNNO 2005-2007
North-West North Appenine N-East Centre of Italy Sout of Italy Sardinia
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Observations: Spring 2005-2006-2007
North-West North Appenine N-East Centre of Italy Sout of Italy Sardinia
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COSMO-I7: Spring 2005-2006-2007
North-West North Appenine N-East Centre of Italy Sout of Italy Sardinia
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Observations: Summer 2005-2006-2007
North-West North Appenine N-East Centre of Italy Sout of Italy Sardinia
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COSMO-I7: Summer 2005-2006-2007
North-West North Appenine N-East Centre of Italy Sout of Italy Sardinia
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3. Use and interpretation of models
COSMO-2 RADAR
mm/24h
Forecasters: we all started to use WRF for precipitation!
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COSMO-IT (2.8km): CNMCA-Rome
To forecasters:Please, give to COSMO model one more chance!