vehicle technology and insurance losses
TRANSCRIPT
iihs.org
Vehicle technology and insurance losses
CAS Annual MeetingNovember 12, 2018
Matt Moore, Senior Vice President HLDI
IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and
educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries and property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads.
HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance
data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
IIHS – HLDI supporting groupsAAA Carolinas Goodville Mutual Casualty Company Qualitas Insurance Company
Acceptance Insurance Grange Insurance Redpoint County Mutual Insurance Company
Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation Grinnell Mutual The Responsive Auto Insurance Company
Alfa Insurance Hallmark Financial Services Rider Insurance
Allstate Insurance Group Hanover Insurance Group Rockingham Group
American Agricultural Insurance Company The Hartford RSA Canada
American Family Mutual Insurance Company Haulers Insurance Company, Inc. Safe Auto Insurance Company
American National Horace Mann Insurance Companies Safeco Insurance
Ameriprise Auto & Home Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company
Amica Mutual Insurance Company Indiana Farm Bureau Insurance SECURA Insurance
Auto Club Enterprises Indiana Farmers Insurance Selective Insurance Company of America
Auto Club Group Infinity Property & Casualty Sentry Insurance
Auto-Owners Insurance Kemper Corporation Shelter Insurance Companies
Bitco Insurance Companies Kentucky Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Companies Sompo America
California Casualty Group Liberty Mutual Insurance Company South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
Celina Insurance Group Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
Censtat Casualty Company The Main Street America Group State Farm Insurance Companies
CHUBB Mercury Insurance Group Stillwater Insurance Group
Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company MetLife Auto & Home Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
Concord Group Insurance Companies Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
COUNTRY Financial MMG Insurance The Travelers Companies
CSAA Insurance Group Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. United Educators
Desjardins Insurance Mutual Benefit Group USAA
ECM Insurance Company Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company Utica National Insurance Group
Elephant Insurance Company Nationwide Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance
EMC Insurance Companies New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group West Bend Mutual Insurance Company
Erie Insurance Group Nodak Mutual Insurance Company Western National Insurance Group
Esurance Norfolk & Dedham Group Westfield Insurance
Farm Bureau Financial Services North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan Northern Neck Insurance Company
Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho Ohio Mutual Insurance Group
Farmers Insurance Group Old American Indemnity Company Funding associations
Farmers Mutual of Nebraska Oregon Mutual Insurance Company American Insurance Association
Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Paramount Insurance Company National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies
Frankenmuth Insurance Pekin Insurance Property Casualty Insurers Association of America
Gainsco Insurance PEMCO Insurance
GEICO Corporation Plymouth Rock Assurance
The General Insurance Progressive Insurance
Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company PURE Insurance
Evaluations of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)
HLDI collision avoidance analysis
The HLDI database includes data from companies that represent
85% of private passenger auto insurance in the U.S.
On a monthly basis, HLDI processes 320 million insurance data
transactions
The insurance data includes the garaging zip code and rated
driver demographics
Manufacturers shared with us 17 digit VINs and information about
collision avoidance systems fitted to those vehicles
Our collision avoidance analysis used the manufacturer supplied
feature data along with our geographic and demographic data
Large amount of timely data
Limited information on crash circumstances
Summary of technology effects on insurance claim frequencyResults pooled across automakers
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
FCW front AEB curve-adaptiveheadlights
LDW BSW parkingsensors
rearcamera
rear AEB
Collision Property Damage Liability Bodily Injury Liability MedPay PIP
Percent distribution of matched pairs of collision & PDL estimates by point of impact1981-2017 models, 2016 calendar year
Front
left
Rear
right
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Front left Rear right
PDL coverage repair
collision coverage repair
front rear
rear
front
Summary of technology effects on collision claim severityResults pooled across automakers
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
forwardcollisionwarning
fcw withautobrake
adaptiveheadlights
lanedeparturewarning
side-viewassist
(blind spot)
parkingsensors
rear camera rear AEB
Change in collision claim frequencyBy severity range
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
low severity(<$2,000)
mid-severity($2,000 - $11,999)
high severity($12,000+)
parking sensors and rear camera
rear automatic braking
Phase in of collisionavoidance systems
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
standard optional not available
New vehicle series with rear cameraBy model year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
standard optional not available equipped
Registered vehicles with rear cameraBy calendar year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
standard optional not available
New vehicle series with autonomous emergency brakingBy model year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
standard optional not available equipped
Registered vehicles with autonomous emergency brakingBy calendar year
Estimated registered vehicles by featureCalendar years 2017 and 2022
0%
20%
40%
60%
rear camera rear parkingsensors
blind spotmonitoring
front crashprevention
lane departurewarning
autonomousbraking
adaptiveheadlights
2017
2022
Turbo and supercharged engines
Turbo and supercharged enginesPooled
turbo/supercharged exposure
(years)12,925,939
non-turbo/supercharged
engines exposure (years)21,967,095
calendar years 2005-16
unique make, series, model,
engine price points
December 2016: 1,556
April 2017: 5,032
covariates
calendar year, model year, make, series, state,
vehicle density, rated driver age group,
gender, marital status, deductible, risk,
base price, horsepower-to-curbweight ratio
methodvehicle series that have models with and
without turbo/supercharged engines
Turbo and supercharged enginesCollision losses
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
claim frequency claim severity overall losses
Percent of vehicles with turbo and supercharged enginesBy model year
all-passenger-vehicle result = $88
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
turbocharged
supercharged
Hybrid and electric vehicles vs. conventional counterparts
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Registered hybrid vehiclesCalendar years 2000–17
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Percent of hybrid vehicles in registered vehicle fleetCalendar years 2000–17
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Registered electric vehiclesIncludes all electric vehicles, calendar years 2008-17
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percent of electric vehicles in registered vehicle fleetIncludes all electric vehicles, calendar years 2008-17
Average base price
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
hybrids hybrid conventionalcounterparts
electrics electric counterparts
Average curb weight (lbs.)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
hybrids hybrid conventionalcounterparts
electrics electric counterparts
2017 Porsche Cayenne 4WD
2017 Porsche Cayenne 4WD
Base price: $60,650
Curb weight: 4,488 lbs.
2017 Porsche Cayenne hybrid 4WD
Base price: $79,750
Curb weight: 5,181 lbs.
2017 Kia Soul station wagon
2017 Kia Soul station wagon
Base price: $18,400
Curb weight: 2,884 lbs.
2017 Kia Soul electric station wagon
Base price: $33,145
Curb weight: 3,289 lbs.
Average miles per day
0
10
20
30
40
hybrids hybrid conventionalcounterparts
electrics electric counterparts
Hybrid and electric vehicles and their conventional counterpartsPercent of study exposure
97%
conventional
8%hybrid
92%conventional
3%electric
97%conventional
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
claim frequency claim severity overall losses
hybrids electrics
Estimated collision lossesHybrid and electric vs. conventional
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
claim frequency claim severity overall losses
hybrids electrics
Estimated PDL lossesHybrid and electric vs. conventional