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COVER STORY KIM JONG-UN’S NEW YEAR ADDRESS: POLICY GOALS & TASKS 2The main tasks to be achieved this year were presented with equal emphasis on internal politics, external affairs and policy toward South Korea.

SOUTH KOREA’S POLICY REVIEWSEOUL’S POLICY DIRECTION TOWARD N. KOREA IN 2014 10Park said there has been no change in her stance that she can meet with Kim Jong-un at any time if it is necessary for peace on the Korean Peninsula.

NEWS FOCUSDESPERATE EFFORTS TO IMPLEMENT STATE TASKS FOR 2014 14N. Korea is intensifying its propaganda efforts to encourage its people to emphatically join the national tasks set forward in Kim’s New Year’s address.

KIM JONG-UN’S BIRTHDAY & RODMAN'S VISIT TO PYONGYANG 18Dennis Rodman’s visit to Pyongyang drew mounting criticism in the United States when he sang “Happy Birthday” to Kim Jong-un.

N. KOREAN-BUILT ANGKOR WAT MUSEUM IN CAMBODIA 20Analysts say N. Korea constructed the museum at Angkor Wat with the aim of earning hard currency and expand its diplomatic influence on Cambodia.

OPINIONIMPLICATIONS OF JANG SONG-THAEK’S PURGE & ITS AFTERMATH 23Some analysts in Seoul interpreted Jang’s dramatic downfall as conflict over “rent-seeking” activities by North Korean ruling elites.

2014 ANNUAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTH KOREA 26North Korea will continue to pursue economic development policies in 2014 but the purge of Jang Song-thaek is highly likely to have a negative impact.

DATA ON NORTH KOREAMAJOR STATISTICS & INDICATORS FOR N. KOREAN ECONOMY 30North Korea’s total annual trade volume amounted to US$6.8 billion, which is 157 times smaller than $1.07 trillion for S. Korea.

MAJOR DEVELOPMENTSInternal Affairs / External Affairs / Inter-Korean Relations 33

STUDIES By Park Byeong-kwang, Ph. D.

THE TRUST-BUILDING PROCESS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR ISSUE: FOCUSING ON SEOUL-BEIJING COOPERATION 45

FOREIGN TIPS 57

PEOPLE & CHRONOLOGICAL REVIEW 60

CONTENTS

Vol.37 No.2

VANTAGE POINT DEVELOPMENTS IN NORTH KOREA

FEBRUARY 2014

COVER PHOTO : North Korean citizens resolve to accomplish the national tasks put forward by North Korean leader KimJong-un in his New Year's Day speech at a mass rally in Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang on Jan. 6.(KCNA-Yonhap Photo)

COVER STORY Vantage Point February 2014

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It has been a decades-old tradition for the North Korean leader toannounce the main tasks for the coming year on New Year’ Day.In his New Year’s address, North Korea’s young leader Kim Jong-

un called on the two Koreas to work toward better relations andemphasized economic growth and ideological consolidation in theNorth to build a “thriving socialist country.”

Kim defined 2014 as a year of “grandiose struggle to make a freshleap forward ushering in a golden age of Songun (military-first) Korea.”In the message delivered live on television and radio, Kim placedemphasis on agriculture and food production for improving the basiclivelihoods of the people.

Year of Grandiose Struggle

The main tasks to be achieved this year were presented with equalemphasis on internal politics and ideology, military, policy towardSouth Korea and external affairs as well as ordinary economic develop-ment programs, but also included the usual issues of education, cul-ture, sports, public health, art and literature.

It marked the second time that Kim has delivered a verbal NewYear’s message since he inherited power from his late father, Kim Jong-il, in December 2011. Late leader Kim Jong-il had never issued a verbalNew Year’s message, but only in the form of “joint editorials” carriedby the North’s leading newspapers of the party, military and youth mili-

The main tasks to be achieved this year were presented with equal emphasis on internal politics, external affairs and policy toward South Korea.

KIM JONG-UN’S NEW YEAR ADDRESS: POLICY GOALS & TASKS

■ By Lee Kwang-ho


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tia. Kim’s New Year’s message has beenscrutinized by South Korea and otherregional powers for clues to the North’spolicy goals in the New Year.

Specifically, Kim urged South Korea totake reciprocal measures to end the mali-cious verbal attacks each side has repeat-edly made against the other and pave theway for improved ties. This is a remarkabledeparture from last year’s threats of immi-nent war against South Korea and theUnited States. “We will make aggressiveefforts to improve relations between theNorth and South,” Kim said in the speechthat lasted 25 minutes. “The South sideshould also come forward to improve rela-tions between the North and the South.”Kim’s remarks appear to contain relativelyclearer reconciliatory signals than lastyear’s, which underscored the need fordefused tension on the Korean Peninsulaand efforts for national unification.

The 30-something leader stressed a

robust economy buttressed by agriculture,construction and science as key to a “newleap to a strong, prosperous socialistnation.” While last year’s speech focusedon agriculture and light industries for eco-nomic development, the latest one singledout construction, fisheries and protectionof underground resources and forests ascore areas. Notably, he placed emphasison even the development of “green ener-gy.” All of these economic policies wouldbe under the control of the ruling party, hesaid, signaling a greater role for theWorkers’ Party of (North) Korea (WPK).

Kim’s call for efforts to boost agriculturaloutput came in the context of food prob-lems facing the population of 24 millionpeople. North Korea’s food production isestimated to have been at about 5.03 mil-lion metric tons in 2013, up 5 percent fromthe previous year, the U.N. World FoodProgram said in a recent report. Still, thefood security situation remains serious,

On the front page of Rodong Sinmun, NorthKorean leader Kim Jong-un delivers a verbalNew Year’s speech on Jan. 1 on major stategoals and tasks to be carried out in 2014.(Yonhap Photo)


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with 84 percent of all households havingborderline or poor food consumption, thereport said.

During the speech, Kim did not explicit-ly refer to the nuclear program, though hevowed to maintain a “strong deterrent”against “external threats of a nuclear war.”Kim, however, lambasted frequent jointmilitary exercises by South Korea and theUnited States, calling them a rehearsal for anuclear war against the North. He warnedthat any accidental military skirmish on theKorean Peninsula could lead to “a deadlynuclear catastrophe” and that “the UnitedStates will never be safe.” The U.S., whichfought against North Korea in the 1950-53Korean War, still keeps about 28,500 troopsin South Korea to deter threats fromPyongyang.

Major Economic Plans in 2014

Reflecting on last year’s achievements,Kim noted, “The entire party, the wholearmy and all the people waged an all-outoffensive in support of the party’s new lineof developing the two fronts simultaneous-ly and thus achieved brilliant successes inbuilding a thriving socialist country.” Alsolooking back on his achievements from2013, Kim complimented North Korean sci-entists for developing state-of-the-art mili-tary technology for national defense andurged them to develop more modernizedweapons that are “light-weight, unmanned,intelligent and precisely functioning.”

Greeting the New Year, Kim said, “Let usraise a fierce wind of making a fresh leapforward on all fronts of building a thrivingcountry filled with confidence in victory!”

Referring to the country’s economic plan,he said, “This year we should ensure thatthe sectors of agriculture, construction andscience and technology hold the torch ofinnovation in the van and the flames of thetorch flare up on all the fronts of socialistconstruction.”

“We should clearly prove the validityand vitality of the theses on the socialistrural question by waging the ideological,technological and cultural revolutionsdynamically in the rural areas and bringingabout a decisive turn in agricultural pro-duction. The construction sector should setup world-class structures and build manyother structures that could contribute toimproving the people’s living conditions.”

In addition to the important role of sci-ence and technology in connection withthe defense industry and modernization ofmilitary equipment, Kim also talked aboutthe need to build a knowledge-basedeconomy. Instead of systemic reform, tech-nological modernization is supposed toprovide the desired boost in productivity.

On construction, Kim made it clear thatthe boom observed in 2013 is going tocontinue. In addition to the construction ofentertainment facilities and structures toimprove the people’s living conditions, hespecifically mentioned power stations, live-stock farming bases, a fruit farm, a water-way and tideland reclamation. Moredwelling houses and dormitories will bebuilt, as well as education, health care andcultural facilities. The beautification ofPyongyang is to be continued, but the restof the country is also mentioned.

Among the many other economic sectorsthat are included in the future outlook,


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power generation received particular atten-tion. For the first time in a New Year’smessage, there was a mention of energysaving. This demand was stated explicitly:“Economizing is precisely production anda manifestation of patriotism.” Alternativemeans of energy production, such ashydraulic resources, wind, geothermal,solar and other kinds of natural energywere also stressed.

He called for the supply of sufficientquantities of steel and varieties of chemicalgoods, adding the electric-power and coal-mining industries and the rail transport sec-tor should make coordinated innovationsand thus give strong impetus to the devel-opment of the national economy.

Another Striking Feature

“By stepping up modernization of com-puter numerical control (CNC) technologyat production lines and increasing the pro-portion of locally-available raw and othermaterials, light-industry factories shouldput production on a normal footing,” hesaid.

Another conspicuous aspect of thespeech on the economic front was thedemand to “bolster the fishing sector.” Inthe last days of December 2013, he hadmeetings with “activists in fisheries” of thearmy and handed out medals and othergestures of his deep appreciation. By mod-ernizing fishing vessels and implementsand launching a dynamic fishing campaignby scientific methods, the fishing sectorshould ensure that all ports resound withwhistles of vessels returning with fullloads. It should also conduct shallow-sea

farming on an extensive scale.“We should protect and increase the

country’s priceless natural resourcesincluding underground, forest and marineresources, and conduct an energetic masstree-planting drive to cover all the moun-tains with thick forests. All the sectors ofthe national economy should increase pro-duction, and at the same time launch abrisk economization campaign.”

While on the economic side, mention ofsocialist principles and central planning ismuch less explicit than in previous officialannouncements, there is no hint of eco-nomic reform. A new focal area of statespending is construction, which is not onlyaimed at creating monuments, but also onwinning the hearts of the population bybuilding more housing. The fact that thebuilders and construction projects are men-tioned numerous times shows that con-struction is a priority policy of the KimJong-un regime. A quantitative analysissupports this view: the term construction,used in various contexts, appears 17 timesin the 2014 speech as compared to only 5times in 2013, according to analyticalreview by North Korea experts.

The Sepho Plateau is connected to hus-bandry, a new economic policy that Kimhas highlighted as a means to solve thefood problem. The newly created area is toserve as grazing land for cattle. The ratio-nale behind this policy is the idea thatsome animals consume the same food ashumans, such as corn, wheat or potatoes.“The history of socialist countries is full ofexamples where similar grand plans result-ed in great disasters,” said a North Koreaexpert active in Austria, in a column for


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U.S. Website 38 North.In addition to the 2013 construction of

the new Korean War museum, the Munsuwater park and the Masikryong ski resort,other less publicized projects were alsomentioned such as the Sepho Plateau.Another striking feature of the 2014 speechis Kim proudly talking about the goldmedals won by North Korean athletes.

“The desire to turn North Korea into amajor sports power is not new, but itseems to be of particular interest to theyoung leader,” Frank said. In the speech,Kim said: “We should raise more fiercelythe strong wind of conducting sportsthroughout the country. We should encour-age sportspeople to intensify training witha high ambition to become world champi-ons, and splendidly implement the Party’splan of building our country into a sportspower by developing sports science andtechnology.”

Political Position

He also stressed political and ideologicalconsolidation, saying that the political andideological position is a fortress thatdecides the victory and failure in the battleof defending socialism. “We should thor-oughly establish the monolithic leadershipsystem in the Party, ensure the purity ofParty ranks and improve the militant func-tions and role of Party organizations.”

While Kim Jong-un regards “strengthen-ing defense capabilities” as the mostimportant of all state affairs, it is men-tioned relatively late in the 2014 New Yearspeech. The ways to implement this politi-cal goal are described in rather general

terms, which stand in marked contrast tothe much more specific ideas on how toimprove the economy.

He called for all the companies of thePeople’s Army to be fully prepared politi-cally, ideologically, militarily and techno-logically, and for the homes of soldiers tobe overflowing with brotherly affection. Heunderlined the need to train them to bestrong in ideology and faith and ready to“defend the Kumsusan Palace of the Sunand the Party Central Committee untodeath.”

Other formulations in his speech warn-ing about “alien ideologies” and “decadentlifestyles” as well as the “enemy’s schemesfor ideological and cultural infiltration”indicate that outside information and ideaskeep coming into the country despiteefforts to stop them. “We should wage avigorous struggle to stamp out any sort ofalien ideology and decadent lifestyle whichmay undermine our system and thus res-olutely smash the enemy’s schemes forideological and cultural infiltration.”

Moreover, Kim emphasized the impor-tance of the mental strength of all servicepersonnel and people. “The greatest poten-tial for creation and innovation, the funda-mental key to miraculous change, lies ingiving play to the mental strength of all theservice personnel and people,” he noted.

Kim called for big strides in the con-struction of culture, including education.“The sector of education should improvethe contents, methods, conditions andenvironment of education as required bythe revolution and developing times.” Healso mentioned efforts to improve medicaltreatment and preventive medicine to pro-


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mote the people’s health. Then he said, “We should make fresh

headway in the national reunificationmovement for this year,” and noted that“We can never just sit back with foldedarms and see the dark clouds of a nuclearwar against us hovering over the KoreanPeninsula. We will defend our country’ssovereignty, peace and dignity by relyingon our powerful self-defensive strength.”He said North Korea will strive to expandand develop friendship and cooperationwith all countries that are friendly andrespect its sovereignty, and safeguard glob-al peace and security and promote com-mon prosperity for mankind.

Kim said the ruling Workers’ Party had

“eliminated the factional filth remaining inthe party,” apparently referring to therecent brutal execution of Jang Song-thaek,his powerful uncle and former regent. Still,he made no direct mention of Jang’s purgein the speech, saying only that “the purgeof anti-party and counterrevolutionary fac-tionalists has strengthened the party.”Without naming Jang, the leader alluded tohim as “factional filth.”

But Kim’s call for improved inter-Koreanrelations during the speech is possibly partof the young leader’s efforts to consolidatehis grip on power in the aftermath of theexecution of Jang in December. In hisspeech, Kim said, “It’s time to stop all thisuseless slandering and swearing that hin-

Tasks for Revolution and Construction in New Year’s Address

“Let us raise a fierce wind of making a fresh leap forward on all fronts of building a thriving countryfilled with confidence in victory!” This is the militant slogan our Party and people should uphold thisyear.

This year we should ensure that the sectors of agriculture, construction and science and technologyhold the torch of innovations in the van and the flames of the torch flare up as flames of a leap forwardon all the fronts of socialist construction.

We should clearly prove the validity and vitality of the theses on socialist rural question by waging theideological, technological and cultural revolutions dynamically in the rural areas and bringing about adecisive turn in agricultural production.

The construction sector should set up world-class structures representative of the Songun (military-first) era and build many other structures that could contribute to improving the people’s living condi-tions, thus laying firm foundations of the self-supporting economy and providing the people with condi-tions for a more affluent and civilized life.

The scientific research sector should open a shortcut to the building of a knowledge-based economyby solving the long-term problems in developing the country’s economy and improving the people’sstandard of living as well as scientific and technological problems arising in the actual situation and bygoing beyond the cutting edge.

The electric-power and coal-mining industries and the rail transport sector should make coordinatedinnovations and thus give strong impetus to the development of the national economy.


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ders reconciliation and unity of the twoKoreas. The South Korean governmentshould stop the reckless fratricidal con-frontation and the fuss of cracking downon pro-North Korean people,” he said. “Weshould achieve new progress in the move-ment for national unification this year.”

Kim said, “The North and the Southshould uphold the principle of indepen-dence which is one of the three principlesfor national reunification and has beenconfirmed in the North-South joint declara-tions, hold fast to the standpoint of By OurNation Itself, and respect and implementthe declarations with sincerity.”

Verbal Gesture towards Seoul

But the 2014 New Year’s speech did notexplicitly mention the “June 15 joint decla-ration and the October 4 declaration,” aformulation that has been repeated like amantra in past years until very recently.The North Korean leader only talked aboutthe need to “respect and implement thedeclarations with sincerity.”

South Korea is cautious on the North’srare conciliatory gesture. “It remains to beseen whether the North will change its atti-tude in the future as it continues to criti-cize South Korea,” said the UnificationMinistry, which handles inter-Koreanaffairs, in a press release.

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researchfellow at the Sejong Institute, a privatesecurity think tank near Seoul, said NorthKorea is likely to propose dialogue withSouth Korea in the coming months as partof its peace gesture. Cheong said the SouthKorean government needs to consider

prime minister-level dialogue with theNorth in a bid to ease military tensions anddevelop inter-Korean economic projects.

Mindful of possible political unrest inNorth Korea following the high-profilepurge, South Korea put its military onhigher alert. North Korea has a trackrecord of carrying out provocations attimes of internal instability to divert peo-ple’s attention and forge unity. InDecember, North Korea warned of mili-tary strikes against South Korea in angerover a Seoul rally, in which conservativeprotesters burned effigies of the North’stwo late leaders, Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung.

On Jan. 1, South Korean DefenseMinister Kim Kwan-jin issued a fresh warn-ing to the North. “The enemy would bebringing destruction on itself if it attemptsto test our capabilities and readiness,” Kimsaid in a letter to South Korean militarycommanders, ordering them to strike backmercilessly without hesitation in case ofenemy provocations.

South Korea’s point man on North Koreaurged Pyongyang on Jan. 2 to give up itsnuclear weapons programs and improveties with Seoul. Unification Minister RyooKihl-jae said the North’s nuclear weaponswon’t help the communist country reviveits moribund economy and enhance thelivelihoods of its 24 million people. “NorthKorea should lay down its nuclearweapons if it chooses to develop its econ-omy,” Ryoo said in a speech to his offi-cials. “Then, North Korea can earn seriousand sincere cooperation from us.”

The North has long been accused by theinternational community of pursuing


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nuclear weapons programs while its peo-ple starve. North Korea has recently vowedto pursue both nuclear and economicdevelopment simultaneously, a policySouth Korea and the U.S. warned is a deadend for the country.

On Jan. 3, South Korea expressed doubtover the North Korean leader’s peaceoffensive. “We have no choice but to ques-tion the sincerity” of Kim’s conciliatory ges-ture, unification ministry spokespersonKim Eui-do said. The ministry citedPyongyang’s track record of carrying outprovocations and slandering South Koreaas a reason for caution on its peace offen-sive.

The U.S. government said on Jan. 1 thatthe only notable thing in Kim Jong-un’sNew Year speech was his lack of commit-ment to denuclearization. “The only thing Iwould note is the absence of any mentionof North Korea’s commitment to denu-clearization,” State Department deputyspokeswoman Marie Harf said at a pressbriefing. She emphasized the Obamaadministration’s position on the socialistnation has not changed. “We will continueto judge North Korea by its actions, not byits words,” she said.

Amid Washington’s firm stance,Pyongyang may be turning to Seoul,

experts say. Pyongyang has apparentlyrefrained from directly criticizing SouthKorean President Park Geun-hye in theearly days of January, contrary to frequentpublic condemnation of her predecessor,Lee Myung-bak. Robert Carlin, a formerU.S. government official on Korea, said:“Recent events have reinforced the signalsthat Pyongyang continues to hold open thedoor to engaging Park more fully at somepoint.”

He said in an analysis of Kim’s NewYear’s remarks on the 38 North websitethat “there will be more concrete NorthKorean proposals forthcoming.” In his2013 speech, Kim did not mention rela-tions between the two Koreas. But hetalked about inter-Korean ties three timesin this year’s address.

Carlin said the leaders of the two Koreasmay have showed off their “toughness”with full-scale dialogue in mind. “BothKorean leaders are new, to some extentuntested, and in typical fashion, appear tofeel the need to demonstrate toughness tothe other side before moving to a morefruitful mode of engagement,” said Carlin,visiting scholar at Standford University’sCenter for International Security andCooperation. (Yonhap News)

Mindful of possible political unrest in North Korea following the high-profile

purge, South Korea put its military on higher alert. North Korea has a track

record of carrying out provocations at times of internal instability to divert peo-

ple’s attention and forge unity.

SOUTH KOREA’S POLICY REVIEW Vantage Point February 2014

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Park said there has been no change in her stance that she can meet with KimJong-un at any time if it is necessary for peace on the Korean Peninsula.

SEOUL’S POLICY DIRECTION TOWARD N. KOREA IN 2014

South Korean President Park Geun-hye has stressed that she canmeet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un “at any time if it is neces-sary for peace on the Korean Peninsula and preparations for uni-

fication,” but insisted that talks should never be talks for talks’ sake andmust produce substantial progress toward peace.

During a New Year’s press conference on Jan. 6, Park welcomed theNorth Korean leader’s New Year’s speech calling for better ties with theSouth and urged Pyongyang to show its intentions through action. Inthe nationally televised press conference, Park also expressed a firmcommitment to unification with the North, saying it would be a “jack-pot” for all Koreans and an opportunity for “our economy to make agreat leap forward.”

Jackpot for All Koreans

Park also proposed holding reunions for families separated betweenSouth and North Korea later January, adding that the South will bolsterhumanitarian assistance and exchanges with the socialist nation. Thefamily reunion proposal came amid uncertainties in Pyongyang follow-ing the execution of Jang Song-thaek, the once-powerful uncle of theNorth’s young leader, in December 2013. Pyongyang later turned downthe offer seen as part of Seoul’s efforts to enhance stability on thedivided peninsula.

“I hope that elderly members of separated families will be allowed toreunite around the Lunar New Year’s Day to help heal the wounds intheir hearts,” Park said, adding that family reunions can be a first step

■ By Kim Tae-shik

toward improving inter-Korean relations. Lunar New Year’s Day is one of the biggest tradi-tional holidays in Korea, falling on Jan. 31 this year.

Seoul’s unification ministry sent a message to the North later in the day, proposing work-ing-level Red Cross talks to set up family reunions be held at the truce village of Panmunjomon Jan. 9. But the North rejected the proposal on Jan. 9, the very date South Korea proposedfor working-level talks. The North’s reaction had been seen as an indication of whether it isserious about its call for better ties with Seoul.

Relations between the two Koreas deteriorated sharply early last year as Pyongyang ratch-eted up war threats after conducting its third nuclear test in February. The ties had shownsigns of a thaw later with the reopening of a joint industrial complex in the North but chilledagain after Pyongyang unilaterally called off reunions for separated families in September.

Their ties were thrown into further doubt following Jang’s execution amid concern thatthe North could attempt military provocations to escalate tensions with the outside world soas to divert public attention from the shocking execution.

In a New Year’s message, however, the North’s leader Kim said that the country will“make aggressive efforts” to improve relations with the South and urged Seoul to work hard-er for the same goal. “What is important is not words, but action and sincerity,” Park said ofKim’s call for improved relations. “North Korea spoke of improving inter-Korean relations inits New Year’s message last year as well, but all of you must be well aware of what it actual-ly did.”

Seoul and Pyongyang previously agreed to hold family reunions at Mount Kumgang, ascenic mountain resort on North Korea’s east coast, on Sept. 25-30, 2013, but Pyongyang uni-laterally called them off at the last minute, citing “unfavorable” cross-border developments.

SOUTH KOREA’S POLICY REVIEWVantage Point February 2014

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President Park Geun-hyeholds a New Year’s newsconference on major poli-cies in her second year inoffice and a variety ofissues of concern at thepresidential office CheongWa Dae in Seoul on Jan. 6,2014. (Yonhap Photo)

SOUTH KOREA’S POLICY REVIEW Vantage Point February 2014

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Asked if she is willing to push ahead with an inter-Korean summit meeting during hertenure, Park said there has been no change in her stance that she can meet with the North’sleader at any time if it is necessary for peace on the Korean Peninsula and preparations forunification.

Park said that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is “more grave than ever,” adding thatthe execution of Jang, who had long been considered the second most powerful figure inthe North, made relations with Pyongyang harder to predict. Jang’s execution has promptedfears of instability in the North’s leadership and concerns have grown over the direction inwhich the young, unpredictable leader will take the heavily-armed nation.

Since the execution, Park has repeatedly called the North’s situation “grave,” warning thatPyongyang could attempt “reckless provocations.” She has ordered the government to preparefor all possible contingencies and the military to beef up vigilance. “No one in the world cansay definitely how North Korea will be and what action it will take,” Park said in the newsconference. “Rather than making premature predictions, we will prepare for all possibilities.”

Uncertainty and Unpredictability

In an interview with CNN on Jan. 13, President Park said North Korea has been “veryunpredictable but the level of unpredictability has in fact exacerbated” since the execution ofJang on charges of attempting to seize power. “The purging and execution of Jang Song-thaek has come as a huge shock to the Korean people as well as the world,” Park said. “Iam concerned about deepening volatility on the Korean peninsula and in the NortheastAsian region.”

Park said she is open to meeting with the young North Korean leader “when the need aris-es,” but growing uncertainty and unpredictability in Pyongyang makes it a top priority for theSouth to strengthen national security to safeguard the well-being of the Korean people. Jang’sexecution temporarily strengthened Kim’s power but it could also signal greater vulnerabilityin the regime, Park said, adding that what is important for the South is to “wait and see andmake sure we have thorough preparations in place and to brace for every eventuality.”

Park repeatedly made the case for unification with the North, rejecting concerns amongsome South Koreans that unification with the impoverished nation would place them under anenormous financial burden. “Unification will be like a jackpot for the South,” she said.

“Next year will mark 70 years since the national division,” she said. “If the Republic of Koreais going to make a leap forward, we should free ourselves from inter-Korean confrontationand nuclear threats, and open up an era of unification. We should make preparations for it.”

Park said the South will work closely together with neighboring nations to prevent NorthKorea from making more sophisticated nuclear weapons and to get the socialist nation todismantle its nuclear programs. “If North Korea intends to give up its nuclear programs andbecome a responsible member of the international community, we plan to work togetherwith the international community to provide active support to North Korea,” she said.

Earlier, Park said in her New Year’s message released on Dec. 31, 2013 that the mostimportant prerequisite for the nation’s economic development is national security, addingthat the government will maintain airtight readiness against North Korean provocations whiletrying to promote peace and lay the groundwork for unification on the Korean Peninsula.

Park said in a telephone conversation with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moonon Jan. 2 that this year will be an important point in bringing permanent peace to the divid-ed peninsula, adding that she will make concerted efforts for peace and asking for Ban’ssupport in those efforts. South Korea expressed doubt about North Korea’s peace offensive.“We have no choice but to question the sincerity” of Kim’s conciliatory gesture, unificationministry spokesperson Kim Eui-do said in a comment.

While sending an olive branch to the South in his New Year’s speech, Kim Jong-un alsopledged to build up the country’s military and lambasted frequent joint military exercises bySouth Korea and the U.S., calling them a rehearsal for a nuclear war against the North.“North Korea,” Kim said, “will continue to build up its military.” “We should continue tochannel great efforts into building up the country’s defense capabilities,” Kim said. “Strength-ening defense capabilities is the most important of all state affairs, and the country’s dignity,people’s happiness and peace rest on powerful arms.”

Kim Jong-un also warned that any accidental military skirmish on the Korean Peninsulacould lead to “a deadly nuclear catastrophe” and that “the United States will never be safe.”The United States, which fought against North Korea in the 1950-53 Korean War, still keepsabout 28,500 troops in South Korea.

In December, North Korea warned of military strikes against South Korea in anger overSeoul rallies, in which conservative protesters burned effigies of Kim Jong-un and his fatherand grandfather, the North’s two late leaders, Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung. Also in Novemberlast year, the North threatened to turn South Korea’s presidential office into a “sea of fire” ifSeoul tries to provoke the country again. The North Korean military condemned the rallies,saying they insulted North Korea’s “highest dignity,” and vowed to “ruthlessly retaliate”against the South.

The South Korean defense ministry immediately replied through the military hot line,vowing to “sternly react” to any provocations, ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said. “Weare closely monitoring the North Korean military’s moves, preparing to sternly react to anyprovocations,” Kim said, noting the North has not shown unusual movement so far whilecarrying out its routine winter drills since early December. (Yonhap News)

SOUTH KOREA’S POLICY REVIEWVantage Point February 2014

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Park repeatedly made the case for unification with the North, rejecting concerns

among some South Koreans that unification with the impoverished nation would

place them under an enormous financial burden.

NEWS FOCUS Vantage Point February 2014

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Despite the adverse situation athome and abroad, North Koreabegan another year with the mass

mobilization of people and media to prop-agate the state goals and tasks set forth byleader Kim Jong-un on Jan. 1. The youngNorth Korean leader emphasized in hisNew Year’s address the need for continuedeconomic development and improvementof living standards, above anything else.He also stressed improvement of relationswith South Korea, though this received acold reaction from Seoul.

North Koreans are often forced to takepart in mass rallies at major state eventsand ceremonies, in a show of their alle-giance to the North Korean leadership, aswell as for propaganda purposes. TheNorth Korean regime uses such means toconsolidate internal unity.

At the start of the New Year, hundreds ofthousands of North Koreans from all walksof life rallied in Pyongyang and majorprovincial cities, pledging to accomplishthe national tasks put forward by the NorthKorean leader. Without exception, senior

North Korean officials and ruling partymembers swore loyalty to their leader at allpublic gatherings and rallies.

In Pyongyang, this year’s first mass rallywas held at Kim Il-sung Square on Jan. 6,attended by key officials from the rulingparty, military and the Cabinet as well asworkers, students and ordinary citizens.North Korea’s No. 2 man Kim Yong-nam,president of the Presidium of the SupremePeople’s Assembly, and Premier Pak Pong-ju attended the rally together with otherkey officials, the North’s official KoreanCentral TV and Korean Central BroadcastingStation reported.

Mass Rallies in Major Cities

Following the capital’s rally, similarmeetings were held in major cities acrossthe socialist country, where North Koreancitizens vowed to implement instructionsgiven in the leader’s New Year’s speech. Ina televised New Year’s address, Kim Jong-un pledged to rebuild the North’s mori-bund economy in 2014 with an emphasison agriculture, food production, construc-

DESPERATE EFFORTS TO IMPLEMENT STATE TASKS FOR 2014North Korea is intensifying its propaganda efforts to encourage its people toemphatically join the national tasks set forward in Kim’s New Year’s address.

■ By Lee Kwang-ho

NEWS FOCUSVantage Point February 2014

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tion and science-technology. Kim also called on the two Koreas to

work toward better relations and empha-sized economic growth and ideologicalconsolidation to build a “thriving socialistcountry.” Kim defined 2014 as a year of“grandiose struggle to make a fresh leapforward ushering in a golden age ofSongun (military-first) Korea”

During the Pyongyang rally, MunKyong-dok, a key official of the rulingWorkers’ Party, called on officials, partymembers and other working people inPyongyang to make contributions to glorifythis year “as a year of grandiose struggle, ayear of sea changes.” He also underlinedthe need to open up a new phase of inde-pendent reunification, peace and prosperi-ty for the country this year.

Speeches were also made by Ri Chol-man, vice premier who doubles as theminister of Agriculture, Tong Jong-ho, min-ister of Construction and Building-Materials

Industry, and other elite officials. Theyvowed to make a decisive turn in agricul-tural production this year to demonstratethe validity and vitality of the socialist ruraltheses. They also vowed to make a tangi-ble contribution to building a rich andpowerful nation through a knowledge-based economy.

In provincial cities, similar meetings tookplace on Jan. 6 and 7 in North Phyongan,South and North Hwanghae, Jagang andRyanggang provinces. They called uponofficials and people in the agricultural fieldto bring about a decisive turn in agricultur-al production this year. They stressed theneed to realize the party’s grand construc-tion plan and ensure the quality of struc-tures while directing efforts to the develop-ment of science and technology.

But challenges facing the socialist coun-try seem more severe this year with thedeepening isolation from international com-munity. After he assumed the throne in late

A mass rally is held at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang on Jan. 6, where participants pledged to accomplish the national tasksput forward by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in his New Year’s address. (KCNA-Yonhap Photo)


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2011, Kim proclaimed a two-track develop-ment strategy for his nation focusing onbolstering the North’s nuclear weapons andits moribund economy. Experts say it is adelusional plan that can never be realized,not because the regime is under interna-tional sanctions but because it constantlyacts against its own strategy.

North Korea’s military also joined therally in early January. For the second con-secutive year, Kim began his series ofearly-year meetings with the armed forces,further highlighting the regime’s military-first policy. Kim Jong-un held a militaryrally to implore his troops to accomplishgoals he’d laid out for the New Year.Rodong Sinmun, the North’s main newspa-per, said Kim presided over the meeting oftroops under the Ministry of the People’sArmed Forces in Pyongyang on Jan. 4,according to state media on Jan. 5.

Intensifying Propaganda Efforts

The paper for the Workers’ Party notedthat Jang Jong-nam, minister of thePeople’s Armed Forces, and Ri Yong-gil,head of the General Staff of the (North)Korean People’s Army (KPA), were presentat the rally. Choe Ryong-hae, director ofthe KPA General Political Bureau, however,was not named as being among the atten-dees. Choe has emerged as a new key fig-ure of the North Korean leadership amongPyongyang watchers after the North’syoung leader executed his uncle in a purgein December.

In his New Year’s address, Kim stressedthat the North will continue to strengthenits military, saying that the bolstering of its

defense capabilities is “the most importantof all state affairs.” The paper reported thatthe troops reaffirmed their drive to solidifyKim’s leadership and to establish an “elite,revolutionary force” through rigorous train-ing. The soldiers also said they wouldcooperate with the civilian sector on majorconstruction and economic projects.

North Korea’s state-run media is alsointensifying its propaganda efforts toencourage its people to emphatically jointhe national tasks set forward in Kim’s NewYear’s address. “His New Year’s addressserves as an inspiring banner, instillingconfidence in the future and revolutionarypride into the service personnel and peo-ple of the DPRK (North Korea), and impor-tant guidelines indicating the shortcut tobringing about a leap forward,” RodongSinmun said in its article.

The paper said, “His New Year’s address isof weighty significance in making freshadvances in the movement for nationalreunification, protecting the sovereignty ofthe country and peace and demonstratingthe dignity of the nation before the wholeworld, true to the behests of the greatGeneralissimos Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il.”

On Jan. 6, the Rodong Sinmun said that“all Koreans in the North, South and over-seas should surely make fresh headway inthe reunification movement this year byunceasingly making advances along theroad indicated by the line of one Korea,the general principle of reunification for allKoreans.” The newspaper’s article said, “Itis impossible to achieve reconciliation andunity of the nation without defusing theconfrontation between the North andSouth. We should put an end to the era of


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confrontation in which one side slings mudat and shows hostility to the other.”

Still, North Korea has recently placedsignificant emphasis on its constructionand entertainment sectors. In early January,Rodong Sinmun emphasized the need forall service personnel and people to utilizethe spirit of “Masikryong speed” under theleadership of Kim Jong-un. Masikryong is aplace in eastern North Korea where a massski resort was built last year through the“militant spirit of construction.”

The “Masikryong speed” is a new speedfor grand socialist construction, a result ofKim Jong-un’s plan to build a rich andpowerful nation based on patriotic devo-tion, the editorial noted. It added the com-pletion of the construction of the world-class ski resort in little over a year is a his-toric miracle which can be wrought onlyby service personnel of the KPA equippedwith “the revolutionary soldier spirit.”

“Three big prestige projects launched bynew leader Kim Jong-un are bleedingNorth Korea dry, exacerbating hardshipsand squeezing their pockets,” according toa South Korean official. “The North is pro-moting sports to boost a dynamic image ofthe young leader and make him popularamong the new moneyed elite as well asto earn hard currency,” the official specu-lated. But critics say many ordinary NorthKoreans are angry that the regime is

squandering money on frivolities whilefailing to end chronic food shortages.

The North Korean regime is busy con-solidating the personality cult aroundleader Kim Jong-un while paying scantattention to improving the wellbeing of itspeople, observers say. North Korea’s statemedia frequently publicizes the construc-tion or renovation of statues, murals, tow-ers and other structures dedicated to theNorth Korean leader, his late father KimJong-il or national founder Kim Il-sung.

Also in early January this year, youngpeople, agricultural workers and membersof the Union of Agricultural Workers ofKorea (UAWK) vowed in their meetings inPyongyang on Jan. 7 to thoroughly imple-ment the tasks set forth by Kim Jong-un.Present there were Ri Yong-su, departmentdirector of the Central Committee of theWorkers’ Party of (North) Korea (WPK),officials of the Kim Il-sung Socialist YouthLeague and the UAWK and other officials.

The participants in the meeting under-scored the necessity of young people inagriculture helping to meet the goal forgrain production set by the WPK. Theyalso called on young people to devotethemselves to building Pyongyang into amore magnificent city and sprucing uptheir hometowns, villages and worksites.(Yonhap News)

Critics say that, while his people starved, Kim emptied the North’s coffers by build-

ing equestrian parks, a ski resort and ice skating and roller skating rinks. He also

built a rash of monuments to his grandfather as well as his father.


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A culture and history museum thatNorth Korea has constructed at AngkorWat relics in Cambodia, a world-famoustourist attraction, by investing US$15 mil-lion will be launched soon, a British news-paper reported.

Quoting the Phnom Penh Post, Britishnewspaper The Independent carried areport on Jan. 6, saying that North Koreahas constructed the “Grand PanoramaMuseum” in the Cambodian tourism city ofSiem Reap, where the ruins of Angkor arelocated.

The soon-to-be opened museum, con-structed by North Korean capital and tech-nology, is the largest construction projectthat the Pyongyang regime has ever under-taken overseas.

The museum features a large muralmeasuring 120 meters across and 13meters high, which displays daily living,culture and history of the Khmer Empire(802-1431). Also on display at the museumare scenery of Mount Paektu and a paint-ing of former North Korean leader KimJong-il’s alleged birthplace. The facility

also comes with a 3-D theater and a VIProom.

Analysts say that the North, whoseeconomy is in shambles, constructed themuseum at Angkor Wat with the aim ofearning hard currency and expand itsdiplomatic influence on Cambodia. Thenewspaper said that North Korea, inreturn for donating the museum toCambodia, will secure the right to operatethe facili ty for 10 years and collectentrance fees.

A source in the British government said,“The project is definitely going to be a fun-nel for making money for North Korea,which is facing economic sanctions,”adding, “The launch of the museum, whichwas originally scheduled to open in latelast year, has been delayed because theNorth is negotiating a measure to increasethe entrance fee by including the entrancefee in the free pass ($40) that allows visi-tors to tour the entire Angkor Wat relics forthree days.”

If Phnom Penh accepts the measure,tourists who visit Angkor Wat would be

N. KOREAN-BUILT ANGKOR WAT MUSEUM IN CAMBODIAAnalysts say N. Korea constructed the museum at Angkor Wat with the aim of earning hard currency and expand its diplomatic influence on Cambodia.

effectively paying North Korea even if theydon’t tour the museum, which might stirup controversy, according to the newspa-per. Analysts say that the North has a trackrecord of breaching business contracts withother countries.

The Phnom Penh Post reported the con-struction of the museum was spearheadedby North Korean artists’ group MansudaeArt Studio -- the world’s largest art produc-tion center with a labour force of 4,000.

A North Korean official at the site wasquoted by the newspaper as saying, “Morethan 50 artists affiliated with Mansudae ArtStudio drew the mural in person andinstalled sculptures.”

The North had maintained close rela-tions with Cambodia when North Korean

founder, Kim Il-sung, was in power.However, relations between the two coun-tries deteriorated after the death of KingNorodom Sihanouk in 2012.

As South Korea emerged as Cambodia’sNo. 2 investor, however, North Korea isstriving to rekindle its friendly ties with theSoutheast country. The North is runningthree restaurants in Cambodia and ispreparing to open a fourth one.

The right to operate more than 60 fran-chise restaurants overseas by the NorthKorean government and Mansudae ArtStudio is reportedly reserved by KimKyong-hui, the wife of Jang Song-thaekwho was executed late last year andyounger sister of the late North Koreanleader Kim Jong-il. (Yonhap News)


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North Korea Reshuffles Ministers Following Jang's Execution

Following the reshuffle of its coal industry minister, North Korea has reshuffled the mining indus-try minister from Kang Min-chol to Ri Hak-chol. It was confirmed that the (North) Korean Central TVBroadcasting Station on Jan. 10 introduced Ri as the mining industry minister, while airing inter-views with senior government officials. It is the first time North Korean media introduced Ri as theminister.

North Korea's state media on Jan. 5 introduced Mun Myong-hak as the head of the Ministry ofCoal Industry. Mun was attending an anniversary event at the Pukchang Area Coal-Mining Complex.Earlier, the North confirmed changes within the ruling Workers' Party of (North) Korea (WPK), andthe appointment of Kim Yong-gwang as the new head of the Ministry of the Metal Industry, replacingHan Hyo-yon, which was reported by the Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station on Jan. 2.(Yonhap News)

Vantage Point February 2014

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NEWS FOCUS

North Korea’s state news agencyhas confirmed the birthday of thecountry’s leader Kim Jong-un for

the first time as it reported on a basketballgame organized by former NBA starDennis Rodman. Kim’s birthday was longbelieved to be on Jan. 8, though theNorth’s state media had been mum on it.

Rodman said that he organized a gamebetween former NBA players and a NorthKorean team to celebrate Kim’s birthday,the North’s official Korean Central NewsAgency (KCNA) reported on Jan. 8. Still,the KCNA dispatch did not mention theexact year when Kim was born.

Kim is believed to have been born in1984, though there is a possibility that theNorth may claim he was born in 1982 inwhat could be an attempt to justify thedynastic power succession by coincidingthe last digit of his birth year with that ofhis late father and grandfather.

Kim’s father, long-time leader Kim Jong-il was born in 1942, and his grandfather,the country’s founder Kim Il-sung, was

born in 1912. The North has designatedthe birthdays of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il as the two most important holidays inthe socialist country, though there is nosign yet to make Kim Jong-un’s birthdayanother state holiday.

Rodman’s Birthday Song

According to the KCNA, Kim watchedthe basketball game at Pyongyang IndoorStadium on Jan. 8, along with his wife RiSol-ju and three senior officials. Kim saidthat the game served as a good occasion topromote the understanding between thepeople of North Korea and the UnitedStates, the KCNA said.

Before the game started, Rodman sang“Happy Birthday” to Kim Jong-un. Rodmanplayed in the first quarter of the gameagainst a group of North Korean players.During the rest of the game, he sat next toKim, and they watched the game together.

Rodman, 52, remains the highest-profileAmerican to meet Kim since he took power

KIM JONG-UN’S BIRTHDAY & RODMAN’S VISIT TO PYONGYANGDennis Rodman’s visit to Pyongyang drew mounting criticism in the United States when he sang “Happy Birthday” to Kim Jong-un.

■ Kim Tae-shik


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in late 2011 following the death of his father,Kim Jong-il. It is the fourth time that Rodmanhas visited North Korea in the past year.

Rodman returned from North Korea toBeijing on his way home on Jan. 13,describing his latest trip to Pyongyang as“amazing.” “It’s amazing that I had anopportunity,” the heavily tattooed Rodmantold a throng of journalists at the Beijingairport, wrapping up his week-long trip toNorth Korea. “Marshal (Kim Jong-un) gaveme this opportunity.”

Asked how he felt about his fourth tripto the North in the past year, Rodmanreplied, “This is not a bad deal.” Rodman,however, declined to elaborate about thetalks with Kim.

But Rodman’s visit to Pyongyang drewmounting criticism in the United Stateswhen he sang “Happy Birthday” to Kim.Rodman, who has described Kim Jong-unas his “friend for life,” has been criticizedfor not using his personal friendship with

Kim to seek the release of a detainedAmerican citizen, Kenneth Bae.

Asked whether he raised the issue ofBae, who has been detained in NorthKorea for more than a year, Rodmanreplied, “I’m sorry. I’m not the president. Iam not the ambassador. I am DennisRodman. Just an individual. Bae was arrest-ed in November 2012 and sentenced to 15years of hard labor in May last year oncharges of state subversion.

A U.S. tourist who watched the game inPyongyang and returned to Beijing toldreporters that the game would only benefitRodman. “I think that it was successful forthe purpose of Rodman. I’m not sure aboutany other purposes,” Hakan Sokmensuer, aretired American executive, said of thisweek’s game in North Korea.

State Department spokeswoman JenPsaki drew a clear line between Rodman’sself-claimed “basketball diplomacy” andthe so-called “ping pong diplomacy” with

NEWS FOCUS

On his birthday on Jan. 8, NorthKorean leader Kim Jong-un(center) talks to DennisRodman, a former NBA star,while watching a friendly gamebetween North Korean playersand ex-NBA players atPyongyang Indoor Stadium.Rodman sang "Happy Birthday"to Kim at the start of the game.(KCNA-Yonhap Photo)


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China. “The difference between now andwhat we did in China in the 1970s withping-pong diplomacy is that China was awilling partner, and that’s not the scenariowe have happening here,” she said.

Ding Dong Diplomacy

An American expert on North Korea,meanwhile, has squarely criticizedRodman’s “basketball diplomacy” as “dingdong diplomacy.” Dennis Halpin, aresearcher at the Johns Hopkins School ofAdvanced International Studies (SAIS), saidin a contributed article to the WeeklyStandard on Dec. 20 that Rodman seemedto think his “basketball diplomacy” is fol-lowing in the footsteps of the “ping-pongdiplomacy” that broke the ice in Sino-American relations over four decades ago.“But such is clearly not the case.”

“The original ping-pong diplomacy ulti-mately paved the way for a visit to Beijingby American President Richard Nixon,”Halpin said in the article titled “DennisRodman’s Ding Dong Diplomacy,” adding,“It is not likely, however, that PresidentObama will follow Dennis Rodman toPyongyang” and the U.S. State Departmentseems embrrassed by his antics.

The U.S. State Department said earlierthat Rodman does not represent the U.S.government and stressed the need to focuson the “brutality” of the North’s regime. “Iknow it’s amusing or maybe interesting totalk about Dennis Rodman, but I actuallythink the focus really should be on thebrutality of the North Korean regime he’sgoing to meet with,” U.S. State Departmentspokeswoman Marie Harf told reporters on

Dec. 17, referring to the North’s executionof Jang Song-thaek.

Halpin said Rodman’s Pyongyang adven-tures do not, seem to reflect the break-through “ping-pong diplomacy” of fourdecades ago. “They appear, in fact, to benothing more than ding dong diplomacy.”

In his third visit to North Korea fromDec. 19-23, North Korea’s state media,which offered detailed coverage of theAmerican player’s previous visits, remainedsilent. North Korea observers say the coun-try may have judged the leader’s meetingwith the NBA star was not appropriateunder the current situation.

Meanwhile, public condemnation hasdeepened over Rodman’s words andactions in North Korea. “The NBA is notinvolved with Mr. Rodman’s North Koreatrip and would not participate or supportsuch a venture without the approval of theU.S. State Department,” NBA commissionerDavid Stern said in a statement. RetiredNBA player Charles Smith, a member ofRodman’s basketball team in Pyongyang,also expressed displeasure.

The Associated Press reported in a dis-patch from Pyongyang on Jan. 7 that“Smith says he feels remorse for coming toPyongyang with Dennis Rodman for agame on the North Korean leader’s birth-day because the event has been dwarfedby politics and tainted by Rodman’s owncomments.” “What we are doing is posi-tive, but it is getting dwarfed by the othercircumstances around it,” he was quoted assaying by the AP on Jan. 7. “The way someof the statements and things that Dennishas said has tainted our efforts.” (YonhapNews)

NEWS FOCUS

OPINIONVantage Point February 2014

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North Korea will continue to pursue economic development policies in 2014 but the purge of Jang Song-thaek is highly likely to have a negative impact.

2014 ANNUAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTH KOREA

Internal Situation in North Korea

North Korea’s top priorities for the year 2014 are likely to be the sta-bility of the Kim Jong-un regime and the consolidation of his rule. Theexecution of Jang Song-thaek is the result of a backlash from the NorthKorean military and those with vested interests in the process of hisleading the transition from military to civilian control.

It also seems that Kim Jong-un himself will accelerate the process ofestablishing a direct rule system along with follow-up measures such asadditional purges of Jang’s associates. It is likely that the governmentwill be reorganized, new policy directions will be presented, and large-scale personnel reshuffles will take place during the Supreme People’sAssembly (SPA) to be held in April.

It is difficult to predict the results of an attempt by Kim to form adirect ruling system within the party, the cabinet, and the military. Inparticular, it remains uncertain whether Kim will be able to establish acentralized command system in internal security agencies after thepurge of Jang.

The North Korean authorities will continue to pursue “new economicmanagement methods” and state economic development policies in2014 but the purge of Jang Song-taek is highly likely to have a negativeimpact. As a result, difficulties will loom in economic and trade projectsand informal economic activities could be reduced due to the socialatmosphere of fear.

It is also highly possible that resources could be wasted due toinvestment in inefficient state-owned enterprises and unproductive pro-

OPINION Vantage Point February 2014

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paganda projects. If the conditions for eco-nomic cooperation are readjusted as statedin Jang’s official indictment, it could nega-tively affect China-North Korea economiccooperation.

In the social sector, it is expected thatidolization and propaganda projects will beimplemented in order to highlight Kim’sability to rule as well as his achievements.In particular, efforts will be furtherstrengthened to consolidate the one-manruling system centered around Kim.

In the course of the rise of the new mili-tary, conflict may arise due to problems inallocation of power and economic privi-leges between the new and old factions.Military tension may be intentionally creat-ed on the Korean peninsula to divert atten-tion away from North Korea’s internalproblems.

But it is highly possible that NorthKorea’s provocations may be staged in amanner different from the past in the faceof China’s opposition and the South Koreangovernment’s firm readiness. It is highlyprobable that they will take the form of lowto mid-level military provocations includingthe forward deployment of military troops,release of new weapons as well as attacksin which the subject is obscure such ascyber attacks and terrorism.

While continuously pursuing policies tothreaten South Korea and create tensions,it is assumed that the North will activelyimplement appeasement policies in the pri-vate sector of South Korea as a way ofinstigating conflict within South Koreansociety. Moreover, for tactical reasons,North Korea may present preemptiveoffers to South Korea including the

reunion of separated family members.In the meantime, it seems that North

Korea will adhere to its policy of simulta-neously pursuing nuclear and economicdevelopment. While insisting on theunconditional resumption of the six-partytalks to accomplish its goal of possessingnuclear weapons, the North will makeefforts to attract foreign investment.However, with the purge of Jang Song-thaek, it is likely that North Korea’s poli-cies will be geared toward nuclear ratherthan economic development.

Foreign Relations

The situation in Northeast Asia is likelyto become more complex with China’saggressive diplomacy and U.S. containmentas well as deepening South Korea-Japanand China-Japan conflict due to the Abeadministration’s continuing conservativedrift. The perception of the four major sur-rounding powers has greatly deteriorateddue to growing uncertainty in North Koreain the aftermath of Jang’s demise andNorth Korea’s policy to possess nuclearweapons.

The U.S. will prepare for the possibilityof any North Korean military provocationwhile assessing the impact of changes inNorth Korean affairs. In the absence ofNorth Korea’s forward-looking posture onthe nuclear and missile issues, NorthKorea’s policy toward the U.S. will behardly effective.

In addition, China will continue to pur-sue economic exchanges and provide sup-port at the minimum level needed to main-tain the North Korean regime, while trying


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to prevent North Korean provocations anda fourth nuclear test. North Korea willaccommodate China’s needs to a certainextent but friction in the process will beinevitable.

North Korea-Japan relations willencounter limitations due to the rightistmovement of the Abe government even asJapan tries to contact and negotiate withthe North over abductions of its citizens.Russia is likely to pursue projects withNorth Korea in the economic area includ-ing the Rajin-Hasan railway line and Rajinharbor projects.

Inter-Korean Relations

Internal factors such as massive person-nel reshuffles following the purge of Jangmay have a negative impact on inter-Korean relations. With a re-emphasis onmilitary-first politics, North Korea is highlylikely to pursue large-scale purges of theparty, state and military, and to create ten-sion in inter-Korean relations for internalintegration and stability.

In addition, it will launch a strongeroffensive in order to induce policy changesin the Park Geun-hye administration andwill escalate threats and military tensionagainst South Korea under the pretext ofthe 2014 ROK-U.S. joint military exercises.For the North Korean regime and military,long-range missile launches and additionalnuclear tests will always be considered aspolitical leverage to create tension andthreaten the South. Therefore, if NorthKorea prepares for such provocations inthe first half of 2014, it seems rather diffi-cult to expect inter-Korean relations to

improve for the time being.North Korea is likely to request change

in South Korea’s policy and seek dialoguewhile passing the buck of strained inter-Korean relations to the Park Geun-hyegovernment. However, it does not seemthat North Korea will change its currenthostile stance in its relations with SouthKorea. With continuing uncertainty andinstability in Kim Jong-un’s power base, itwill be difficult to break from the ongoingdeadlock and move toward “normalization”of the relations.

Nevertheless, it seems that dialoguebetween working-level officials will beresumed catalyzed by separated familyreunions and humanitarian assistance.Regarding the Kaesong Industrial Complex,the two Koreas have been communicatingwith each other in relation to the operationof the Joint Committee and Sub-committeeregardless of the political situation and theeffort will continue as long as there are nounexpected incidents.

In addition, if North Korea does not takeactive steps toward denuclearization, it willbe difficult to pursue dialogue for econom-ic cooperation between the South andNorth Korean authorities. Thus, it is highlyprobable that inter-Korean economicexchanges and cooperation will be main-tained in a limited manner and it will alsobe difficult to expect a boost in the areasof society and culture.

(This is an excerpt from a report onOnline Series published on Jan. 2, 2014 bythe Korea Institute for National Unificationin Seoul, Korea)


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Some analysts in Seoul interpreted Jang’s dramatic downfall as conflict over “rent-seeking” activities by North Korean ruling elites.

IMPLICATIONS OF JANG SONG-THAEK’S PURGE & ITS AFTERMATH

■ By Sung Ki-young, Research Professor, Yonsei Institute for North Korean Studies in Seoul, Korea

The ruthless purge and execution of the No. 2 person in the NorthKorean leadership has provided external observers with much to dis-cuss in terms of Pyongyang’s power transition from Kim Jong-il to hisinexperienced youngest son, Kim Jong-un. Attention is particularlybeing focused on the effect Jang Song-thaek’s ousting will have on thestability of the Kim Jong-un regime, which inherited Kim Jong-il’s lega-cy just two years ago.

The majority of North Korea analysts anticipate that it will consolidateKim Jong-un’s grip on power. They believe that a growing network ofJang Song-thaek loyalists had created obstacles to the newly establishedKim regime. Jang’s indictment stressed his “deliberate and sinister”attempts to overrule the party line and Kim Jong-un’s authority.

‘Yang-bong Um-ui’

“Jang Song-thaek worked hard to put all affairs of the country underhis control, massively increasing the staff of his department and organsunder it, and stretch his tentacles to ministries and national institutions.He converted his department into a ‘little kingdom’ which no onedared touch,” it read.

Thus, according to this theory, Jang’s removal was a means to stabilizethe still vulnerable Kim Jong-un regime and consolidate Kim’s leadership.In the same vein, the regime has stepped up efforts to bolster NorthKorea’s ruling ideology, “the 10 principles for the establishment of amonolithic ideological system,” which was revised by Kim in June 2013.

In a rare speech during a Workers’ Party of (North) Korea (WPK)

meeting, Kim Jong-un said that he haduncovered and disrupted the plots of anti-party revisionists, implicitly signaling Jang’sremoval.

At the same time, the speech raised sus-picion that Jang was “Yang-bong Um-ui,”or just pretending to obey the leader. Thereference indicates that Jang’s removal hadbeen planned for quite some time. Someanalysts interpreted Jang’s dramatic down-fall as arising not from a power strugglebetween Jang’s followers and opponents,but conflict over “rent-seeking” activitiesby North Korean ruling elites.

This interpretation implies that hisremoval will not spark substantial politicalinstability in Pyongyang, contrary to theinitial response of the international com-munity including the United States. Thisview was also supported by the NationalIntelligence Service (NIS) of South Koreain a meeting of the National Assembly inDecember 2013.

While the “stability thesis” provided asteady flow of stories on how to interpretthe sudden and shocking removal of Jang,an alternative view was raised later fromcloser observation of North Korea’s militaryelites. The alternative view is based on theassumption that it is unavoidable that therewill be political competition among powergroups in Pyongyang even though Jang’sremoval can be interpreted as a result ofcompetition for economic gain in the firstplace.

The Kim leadership has vigorously pur-sued the replacement of the old militaryleaders with a new generation of elitesover the last two years. The South Koreangovernment has confirmed that 44 percent

of the Cabinet and North Korean party andmilitary leaders, including top militarycommanders, have been replaced.

This has been understood as an effort toovercome the young Kim’s vulnerabilityand strengthen his inherited power. At thesame time, the frequent replacement ofkey officials within the power circle hasdemonstrated an ad hoc style of gover-nance rather than strength.

Old Military Leaders

The replacement of existing militaryelites had been accompanied by the rise ofthe Jang Song-thaek network and led tothe expansion of his influence not only onparty departments but also the military. Asa result, the existing military leaders wereforced to decamp from the ruling powergroup of the regime. The Jang-led attemptto recover civilian control under Kim’sleadership angered many military leaders.Based on this scenario, the “instability the-sis” argues that these old military leadersspearheaded the purge and execution ofJang behind the scenes.

Their arguments are supported by thereappearance of old military leaders suchas O Kuk-ryol, vice chairman of theNational Defense Commission, immediatelyafter Jang’s execution. O had suffered thehumiliation of being appointed to neitherthe WPK Politburo nor the WPK CentralMilitary Commission after Kim Jong-uninherited power from his father.

He has been seen next to Kim Jong-unat the National Scientist Conference andmany other events since Jang’s purge. Also,a group of old military leaders who had


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been at the top of the power structureunder the Kim Jong-il regime, such as KimYong-chun and Hyoun Chol-hae, reap-peared after the execution.

If the reappearance of old military lead-ers supports the theory that they engi-neered Jang’s removal, it could surely alsoindicate that Kim has been unable tosecure a full grasp on power. It also signalsanother power struggle between old andnew military elites.

If we follow the Kremlinological obser-vation of North Korean palace politics,attention turns to the centrality of ChoeRyong-hae, who appeared prominently atKim Jong-il’s second memorial. It wasinteresting to see Rodong Sinmun’s full-page article lionizing Choe’s father, ChoeHyon, right after the execution.

Some South Korean experts, such asAhn Hong-jun, chairman of the foreignaffairs and unification committee of theNational Assembly, argue that Choeorchestrated the execution in league withan anti-Jang faction within the military. Thecentral role of Choe Ryong-hae in Jang’spurge and execution signals yet anotherpower struggle in the regime.

The likely power struggle raises twoquestions: (1) whether or not the Kimleadership restarts military-first (Songun)politics in the wake of a powerful civilian’sbrutal removal (2) and whether and howrapidly the ruling elites carry out a subse-quent purge of Jang Song-thaek’s follow-ers. Songun politics was the brainchild ofKim Jong-il, who had lacked charismaticleadership after Kim Il-sung’s sudden deathin 1994. Kim Jong-il tried to strengthen hisinsufficient power base by embracing mili-

tary leaders and utilizing their capabilitiesand resources. The military acquired dis-proportionate, if not exclusive, access tolimited economic resources in NorthKorea.

But, in contrast, Kim Jong-un has madeevery effort to revive North Korea’s mori-bund economy and to normalize the func-tions of the party as a way to pursue aneconomic strategy while inheriting hisfather’s Songun politics legacy.

Subsequent Purges

Ever since, his consistent emphasis hasbeen on economic revival and the people’swellbeing, achieved through institutionalreform within the party-Cabinet-militarygoverning system. Although some old mili-tary leaders have regained the opportunityfor public appearance, a return to Songunpolitics seems unlikely given Kim Jong-un’s repeated statements stressing econom-ic improvement.

Second, subsequent purges were widelyanticipated as Jang’s followers are estimat-ed to number 20,000 to 30,000 since hewas in the position of No. 2 with full sup-port of the country’s leader for nearly fourdecades. Immediately after Jang’s execu-tion, however, the subsequent purge didnot occur as rapidly as expected.

This cautious stance can be understoodas an attempt by Kim to lessen the shockJang’s execution has caused the interna-tional community. It seems that the NorthKorean leadership will continue the subse-quent process more quietly when theuncertainty generated by Jang’s executionhas passed.


28

On the other hand, the fall of Jang, a rel-atively dovish reformist, is likely to resultin inevitable adjustment of North Korea’seconomic policy in terms of its relationswith China and South Korea. Most of all,the future of China-North Korea joint eco-nomic projects, which had once beenspearheaded and coordinated by Jang, hasattracted great attention.

As North Korea has begun revealing pastmisconduct of the relevant officials of theRason special economic zone and crackingdown on their misbehavior, the future ofChina-North Korea cooperation seemsgloomy. More importantly, Jang’s indict-ment stressed that he sold off abundantnatural resources at giveaway prices.

For example, the quantity of coal export-ed from North Korea to China skyrocketedto more than ten million tons from about2011, compared to 2-3 million tons export-ed in the 2000s. This signals that the exe-cution of Jang, one of the few trustworthyeconomic bureaucrats from China’s per-spective, will hamper North Korea’s eco-nomic cooperation with China.

Jang was also a familiar figure to SouthKorean policymakers and the public as hevisited Seoul in 2002 as a member of aneconomic delegation. It has widely beenbelieved that the North’s recent movetoward economic opening was largely

designed and implemented under Jang’spioneering leadership coming from a fami-ly relationship with the Kim dynasty. Thus,Jang’s execution and the likely purge ofreform-minded followers are likely tocause stagnation in Pyongyang’s economicrelations with Seoul.

However, if Jang’s execution was moreabout control of rents than substantialdebate over economic policy, South-Northeconomic exchanges may not be criticallyaffected by the incident. The influx of cashfrom inter-Korean economic exchanges hasbeen a substantial source of funds forNorth Korea’s ruling elites from the KimJong-il era.

If this scenario is the case, the ramifica-tions of the execution will be limited to thecollapse of enterprises under Jang’s con-trol, and will not lead to a comprehensiveadjustment of the North’s foreign economicpolicy.

Moreover, emphasis on the “Cabinet sys-tem” in Jang’s indictment also suggestedthat Kim Jong-un would not change thedirection of foreign economic policy. Thisis why nothing out of the ordinary hasbeen witnessed so far between the twoKoreas, despite the dominant predictionsthat Jang’s purge will negatively affectinter-Korean relations. (Yonhap News)


29

The ramifications of the Jang Song-thaek’s execution will be limited to the col-

lapse of enterprises under his control, and will not lead to a comprehensive adjust-

ment of the North’s foreign economic policy.

DATA ON NORTH KOREA Vantage Point February 2014

30

MAJOR STATISTICS & INDICATORS FOR N. KOREAN ECONOMY North Korea’s total annual trade volume amounted to US$6.8 billion, which is 157 times smaller than $1.07 trillion for S. Korea.

■ Kim Tae-shik

North Korea’s trade and economic levels maintained big gapswith those of South Korea in 2012, according to data releasedon Dec. 23, 2013, indicating prolonged lackluster business and

economic conditions in the reclusive country.According to the data compiled by Statistics Korea in Seoul, North

Korea’s total annual trade volume amounted to US$6.8 billion, which is157 times smaller than $1.07 trillion for South Korea. The North’sexports stood at $2.9 billion compared with the South’s $547.9 billion,accounting for just one 189th of the South.

The gap of nominal gross national income (GNI) levels between thetwo Koreas also remained wide. The GNI for the South was estimatedat 1,279.5 trillion won ($1.21 trillion) in 2012, 38.2 times larger than theNorth’s 33.47 trillion won, the data showed. On a percapita basis,South Korea’s GNI was 18.7 times larger than that of the North.

Gap of GNI Levels between Two Koreas

South Korea also outperformed the North in infrastructure and othersocial overhead capital spending. The North’s total road networkextends 26,114 kilometers compared with 105,703 kilometers in theSouth, the data showed. The South had the power generating capacityof 81.8 million kilowatts a year, which is 11.3 times larger than theNorth.

The only category in which the North outperformed the South wasin coal production. It produced a total of 25.8 million tons of coal in2012, about 10 times the amount of coal produced by the South,

according to the data.North Korea produced 6.44 million tons of cement in 2012 compared with 46.86 million

tons produced in South Korea while North Korea’s crude steel production remained at 1.22million tons compared with the South’s 69 million tons.

North Korea has an overwhelmingly large reserve of mineral resources than South Korea.Rep. Kim Ul-dong of the ruling Saenuri Party in Seoul, said North Korea has deposits ofabout 20 mineral resources worth 698.6 trillion won, compared with the estimated value ofminerals in South Korea at 319 trillion won.

Kim said the reserve of magnesite in North Korea is estimated at 4 billion tons, the secondlargest reserve in the world; that of graphite at 2 million tons, the third largest; and has adeposit of 160,000 tons of tungsten for the world’s sixth largest tungsten reserve.

At present six countries, including China, South Korea and Japan, are participating in min-ing development in North Korea. Chinese companies are engaging in 20 development pro-jects in North Korea, while only one case is carried out by a South Korean company.

Casualties by Natural Disasters

It was also discovered that North Korea is believed to have an enormously large reserve ofrare earth minerals, and the country has reportedly signed a joint venture contract with SREMinerals, a private equity fund based in Australia, to develop rare earth minerals.

The two Koreas had a combined population of 74.4 million, with the North holding apopulation of about 24.4 million, according to the statistics agency.

As of 2013, there were more males in South Korea than females, while the excess offemales was remarkable in the North, according to the statistics agency. The number ofmales in the South exceeded that of their female counterparts by 100.3 per 100, while theratio of females against males was 95.2 per every 100 males in North Korea. Males num-bered 25.04 million in the South and 11.91 million in the North, while the female populationwas 24.96 million in the South and 12.51 million in the North.

The statistics agency explained that the excess of females in the North is attributable to thelonger life expectancy for females in the country. Meanwhile, experts in private institutesattributed the phenomenon to the high rate of accidental deaths among North Korean males.

Researchers like Cho Bong-hyun at the IBK Economic Research Institute in Seoul saidthere are many cases of North Korean males dying in their workplaces or in the military dueto excessive overwork or accidents. Cho said many North Korean male workers died in lum-bering works or in overseas work sites.

Prof. Kim Byong-yon of Seoul National University also said it is believed that many NorthKorean soldiers died due to accidents amid the atmosphere of stressing the spirit of “theMarch of Suffering” initiated by late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

The average life expectancy for women in North Korea was estimated at 72.4 years com-pared with 65.6 years for North Korean males. The life expectancy for South Korean males

DATA ON NORTH KOREAVantage Point February 2014

31

and females was much longer than their North Korean counterparts. The life expectancywas 84.7 years for males and 89.8 years for females in the South.

In October 2013, the U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA) estimated North Korea’s populationat 24.9 million, the 49th largest among 202 countries in the world. North Korea is also ratedas the No. 10 country in the world in terms of natural disasters compared with population.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-based Radio Free Asia (RFA), quoting a Belgian research institute,reported recently that 13 percent of North Korea’s entire population suffered damage byfloods in the summer of 2012. The disaster research institute of Leuven University revealedin a catastrophe analysis of 2012 that the casualties by natural disasters in North Korea were0.6 in 100,000 residents.

The birthrate for a female was higher among North Korean females than their southerncounterparts. A female in the North gives birth to 2.0 babies in average during her lifetimecompared with 1.32 babies by South Korean females. The infant death rate between 2010and 2015 was estimated at 22 per 1,000 in the North, higher than 3.4 per 1,000 in the South.

The statistics agency has been providing such information on the North every year since1995 as a way to provide a glimpse into the economic and industrial conditions of the reclu-sive country. The two Koreas remain technically at war after their 1950-53 conflict ended ina cease-fire, not a peace treaty.

This year the agency released 128 statistics indexes in 14 categories, including naturalenvironment, population, economy and inter-Korean exchange, comparing the statistics ofboth Koreas. (Yonhap News)

DATA ON NORTH KOREA Vantage Point February 2014

32

S/N Comparison(times)N. KoreaS. Korea

2.0

18.7

157.0

188.9

133.2

0.1

11.3

56.5

7.3

4.0

15.5

2,442.7

137

6.8

2.9

3.9

2,580.0

722.0

122.2

644.6

26,114

84

5,000.4

*2,559

1,067.5

547.9

519.6

209.4

8,180.6

6,907.3

4,686.2

105,703

1,306

Population (10,000)

Per Capita GNI (10,000 won)

Total Trade (Billon dollars)

Exports (Billon dollars)

Imports (Billon dollars)

Coal Production (10,000 tons)

Power Generation Capacity (10,000 KW)

Crude Steel Production (10,000 tons)

Cement Production (10,000 tons)

Roads (Km)

Ships (10,000 tons)

Source : Statistics Korea *Provisional Estimate

Major Statics of South and North Korea for 2012

MAJOR DEVELOPMENTSVantage Point February 2014

33

<Internal Affairs>

State Funeral Service for Kim Kuk-thae Held Amid Jang’s Execution

Astate funeral service was held in Pyongyang on Dec. 16 for Kim Kuk-thae, a member ofthe Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of (North) Korea

(WPK), deputy to the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) and chairman of the ControlCommission of the WPK Central Committee, North’s official Korean Central News Agency(KCNA) reported on Dec. 18.

North Korea’s top officials, including Kim Yong-nam, the president of the SPA Presidium;Premier Pak Pong-ju; and Choe Ryong-hae, director of the military’s General PoliticalBureau, attended the funeral service.

Kim Ki-nam, a member of the Political Bureau and secretary of the WPK CentralCommittee, said in a funeral address that Kim Kuk-thae was an elder revolutionary “whodevoted himself to the party and the leader, the country and people, always remaining faith-ful to the Juche revolution.”

Though Kim Kuk-thae passed away, the feats he performed for the party and the revolu-tion, the country and its people will remain for a long time, he added. The remains of hisbody were buried in the Patriotic Martyrs’ Cemetery in the suburbs of Pyongyang.

Kim Kuk-thae, the eldest son of Kim Chaek, who was the closest aide to North Koreanfounder Kim Il-sung, died of an acute heart failure and dyspnoea on Dec. 13 at the age of89, according to the KCNA. (Yonhap News)

N. Koreans Pledge Loyalty to Leader Kim Jong-un on Key Anniversary

North Koreans vowed on Dec. 17 to faithfully follow their leader Kim Jong-un as theymarked the second anniversary of the death of Kim’s father and former leader, Kim

Jong-il.The latest pledge of their loyalty came just days after the North executed Jang Song-thaek,

who had long been considered the North’s No. 2 man and Kim Jong-un’s regent, for treason.Kim Yong-nam, North Korea’s ceremonial head of state, called on all North Koreans to

“hold comrade Kim Jong-un in high esteem as the unitary center of unity and leadership,”calling it a fundamental guarantee to carry out achievement of Kim’s father.

The octogenarian official made the speech during the anniversary ceremony at thePyongyang stadium that was broadcast live on state television and monitored in Seoul.

Leader Kim Jong-un presided over the ceremony where he was mostly impassive, thoughhe occasionally clapped his hands along with the packed audience of soldiers and officials.He did not make any comment.

MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS Vantage Point February 2014

34

Kim later visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun to pay tribute to his father Kim Jong-il,along with his wife Ri Sol-ju, according to the North’s official KCNA.

The mausoleum in Pyongyang is considered one of the most sacred sites in the commu-nist country as it is home to the embalmed bodies of the country’s two late leaders, Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, who are the grandfather and father of the current leader.

It marked Ri’s first public appearance since Oct. 15 when she watched a Russian orches-tra. It was not immediately clear what had kept her from public view. (Yonhap News)

N. Korea Says It Will Prioritize Economy, Welfare After Purge

North Korea will prioritize building its economy and improving the lives of the peoplefollowing the shocking execution of leader Kim Jong-un’s uncle earlier December, a

pro-North Korean newspaper in Japan said on Dec. 20.The path to be taken by North Korea following the purge of Jang Song-thaek is clear, said

Choson Sinbo, a paper run by the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan.“It’s a path toward self-reliance, songun and socialism,” it said. Songun refers to the

North’s military-first ideology.“Building the economy and improving the lives of the people are tasks to be undertaken

immediately, and we will do so at once,” the paper said, adding that, “Economic prosperityof a nation possessing nuclear weapons will scare our enemies.”

The paper, however, condemned foreign analysts claiming that Jang was executed to con-solidate leader Kim Jong-un’s rule.

“(North Korea) has publicly said building a monolithic leadership in the Party is preciselythe basis of its existence,” the paper said. “Labeling Jang as a ‘reformist,’ ‘the No. 2’ or Kim’s‘regent,’ therefore, shows ignorance of North Korean reality.”

“If North Koreans were shocked by this incident, it’s not because of the purge but becauseof the fact that there was someone scheming to overthrow our monolithic regime,” it added.

Choson Sinbo has previously said the purge would strengthen the North’s single leader-ship, and has dismissed reports that the execution of Jang would destabilize the regime andharm its foreign relations. (Yonhap News)

North Korea Praises Own Sports, Culture Performance in 2013

North Korea has highlighted its performance in sports, literature and arts this year in anapparent bid to rouse loyalty among citizens to leader Kim Jong-un.

“Our passion to build a civilized socialist society has never been stronger,” said RodongSinmun, an organ of the ruling WPK, on Dec. 23, adding that the nation has made“unprecedented” achievements in sports, literature and arts in 2013.


35

North Korea competed in more than 70 global sports events and gathered over 160 goldmedals this year, a 3.7-fold increase from last year, the paper said.

The country earned a total of 380 medals, up 3.2 times from 2012, it added.The paper also praised successful athletes, including Kim Kum-ok, who finished first at

the 14th Asian Marathon Championship, as the “archetypal athletes of the new generation.”As with sports, the paper gave generous reviews regarding the country’s performance in

entertainment -- most remarkably claiming that North Korean literature and arts have suc-cessfully served their purpose as “ideological weapons.”

The Moranbong Band, an all-female group formed by leader Kim Jong-un, has stagednumerous performances representing the North’s revolutionary spirit since its New Yearsconcert, the paper said.

It also mentioned a play glorifying the mother of former leader Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-suk, as a milestone in performing arts. In addition, it noted the colored statues of founderKim Il-sung and his son Kim Jong-il at the Victorious Fatherland Liberation War Museumand the Munsu Water Park, respectively, as great achievements in fine arts. (YonhapNews)

N. Korean Leader Pays Homage to Late Father on Key Anniversary

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and other top officials visited one of the country’smost sacred sites on Dec. 24 to pay their respects to the two late leaders, the North’s

media reported.North Koreans mark key anniversaries by visiting the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in

Pyongyang, home to the embalmed bodies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, who are thegrandfather and father of the current leader.

The North’s official KCNA said Kim paid homage to the two late leaders “in the humblestreverence” as North Korea commemorated the 22nd anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s assumptionof the supreme commander of the military.

On Dec. 17, Kim also paid tribute to his late father in the mausoleum to mark the secondanniversary of his death.

Kim Jong-un took over North Korea in 2011 following the sudden death of Kim Jong-il,who also inherited power from his father, Kim Il-sung, the North’s founder.

Kim’s latest visit came less than two weeks after the North executed his once-powerfuluncle, Jang Song-thaek, who had long been considered the North’s No. 2 man and Kim’sregent, for treason.

Meanwhile, Kim Kyong-hui -- Kim’s aunt and wife of Jang -- did not visit the mausoleumfor the second time in a week. The North’s state media did not provide any details on herconspicuous absence.

The National Intelligence Service, South Korea’s top spy agency, reported to the parlia-


36

ment on Dec. 23 that Kim Kyong-hui is believed to be safe, though she refrained from pub-lic activity. (Yonhap News)

N. Korea’s Cabinet Meeting Emphasizes Addressing Food Shortage

North Korea’s Cabinet has decided to solve its chronic food shortage problems throughincreasing agricultural output for the coming year, Pyongyang’s official news agency

reported on Dec. 28. Pyongyang’s decision was made at the enlarged plenary session of the Cabinet, chaired by

Premier Pak Pong-ju. It was rare for the North’s Cabinet meeting to top the agriculture issuealone, as it had previously dealt with it along with overall economic issues ranging from theindustrial to mining sectors.

The meeting was also attended by the Ri Chol-man, agricultural minister, together withother Cabinet members. Also on hand were the provincial people’s committee chairman,agricultural economic chairman and cooperative farm heads of cities and counties across thecountry.

The goal of the meeting was to review the results of the North’s agriculture sector in thepassing year and outline plans for the coming year, according to the KCNA.

The KCNA said that the North’s major task is to solve food shortages by developing itsagricultural sector.

According to the KCNA report, the Cabinet meeting emphatically said good farming fornext year is not only the practical economic issue for grain production increase but also avery important political project.

Experts explained that the North’s emphasis on agriculture for next year is to gain supportfrom its people suffering from chronic food shortages.

North Korea is still struggling with chronic malnutrition with 84 percent of householdshaving borderline or poor food consumption, United Nations agencies recently said, despitea 5 percent rise in staple food output.

Another topic discussed at the latest Cabinet meeting was increasing state investments inimplementing in earnest the “Punjo” management system. Punjo system refers to a farmingmanagement system involving a handing out a plot of land, called “Pojon,” to small sub-groups, or sub-workteams, usually comprising a family unit. (Yonhap News)

N.K. Holds Meeting of Activists in Fisheries of Its Army for First Time

North Korea held a meeting of activists in fisheries of the (North) Korean People’s Army(KPA) in Pyongyang on Dec. 26 for the first time in its history.

The North’s official KCNA said the meeting, the first of its kind in the KPA history, was


37

attended by Choe Ryong-hae, director of the military’s General Political Bureau, Jang Jong-nam, minister of the People’s Armed Forces, other officials of the Ministry of the People’sArmed Forces, generals and other officers of the KPA, officials in the field of fisheries of theKPA, and fishermen and captains who set an example in fishing this year.

So Hong-chan, first-vice minister of the People’s Armed Forces, said in a report thatSupreme Commander Kim Jong-un assigned to the People’s Army the task to conduct side-line fishing and supply soldiers with more fish, and he wisely led the drive to success.

He added that Kim also took measures to kindle a new torch of catching fish and saw to itthat a socialist emulation drive was waged, thus making the whole army come alive with fishcatching.

Kim Jong-un has shown a keen interest in the supply of fisheries products to soldiers.Most recently, Kim gave field guidance to the August 25 Fisheries Station under KPA 313Unit on Dec. 16

The participants adopted an appeal to all the officials in the field of fisheries and fisher-men of the army. The appeal ardently called on them to become pioneers and shock forcesin materializing the far-reaching plan of the supreme commander for supplying large quanti-ties of fish to all defense posts of the country and re-energizing the fishing industry of thecountry. (Yonhap News)

N. Korea Celebrates Kim’s Rise to Power, Pledges Loyalty to Him

North Korea on Dec. 29 celebrated leader Kim Jong-un’s ascension to power two yearsago and swore allegiance to him, state media reported, in the latest in a series of

events staged to show that the young leader is firmly in charge after the execution of hisuncle.

Kim took over as supreme commander of North Korea’s armed forces on Dec. 30, 2011,shortly after his father Kim Jong-il died. This year’s anniversary came just weeks after Kimexecuted his powerful uncle Jang Song-thaek, prompting speculation of instability inPyongyang’s inner circle.

“The people’s armed forces should hold higher the slogan of protecting comrade Kim Jong-un with our lives” and must move as if being one body according to Kim’s order, said ChoeRyong-hae, the director of the military’s political department, in a speech at the ceremony.

Choe is believed to be the second-most powerful man in the North after Jang’s execution.“Should the enemy leave even a speck of a mark on our land, we will wipe out all aggres-

sors and achieve the historical mission of unification of the fatherland,” Choe said, accordingto the North’s Korean Central Television.

Choe also stressed that the North should put a top priority on moving the defense industryforward and should “ceaselessly modernize” the country’s armament. But he made no men-tion of the country’s nuclear weapons program. (Yonhap News)


38

Rodong Sinmun Selects Eight Major Events in North Korea in 2013

Rodong Sinmun, the organ of North’s ruling Workers’ Party, on Dec. 29 revealed its selec-tion of eight major events in the socialist country in 2013 but omitted the sensational

execution of Jang song-thaek, the uncle of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un who had beenregarded as the No. 2 man of the country for decades.

The paper put the verbal announcement of Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s message on top ofthe eight major events. Kim’s address was the first verbal New Year’s message by a NorthKorean leader in 19 years after Kim’s grandfather Kim Il-sung delivered it in 1994.

The third nuclear test North Korea conducted in February in defiance of the internationalwarning against it was picked as the second major event of 2013. Rodong Sinmun claimedthat the third nuclear test became an important occasion in guaranteeing peace and stabilityon the Korean Peninsula and in the region.

The WPK’s adoption of the policy of simultaneously promoting economic constructionand nuclear buildup in March was also listed in the major events of the year along with theApril 1 meeting of the SPA, the North’s parliament, which approved laws and ordinances insupport of the party’s decision to pursue the new strategic line on carrying out economicconstruction and building nuclear armed forces at the same time.

Other events cited by the paper included the grand celebrations of the 60th anniversary ofthe “Victorious Day” (the Korean War armistice day of July 27) and the 65th anniversary ofthe foundation of North Korean government on Sept. 9.

Successful achievements of North Korean athletes in international sporting events andachievements in large-scale construction projects were also listed as major events of the yearalong with various national meetings, including the fourth Meeting of Secretaries of Cells ofthe WPK attended by Kim Jong-un. Rodong Sinmun said North Korean athletes earnedabout 160 gold medals in 70 international events, about 3.7 times the number of gold medalsthe country won in 2012.

Rodong Sinmun, however, did not mention at all about the public execution of Jang,which surprised the world. (Yonhap News)

N. Korea Establishes Agency Handling Investments from Overseas Koreans

North Korea has established a government agency to facilitate investments in the socialistnation by overseas Koreans, with its services to get into full swing by January, an offi-

cial was quoted on Dec. 29 as saying.Pyongyang established the “economic cooperation office for overseas Koreans” in August

to provide support and guidance for investments from Koreans living overseas, the agency’schief, Pak Kyong-jin, said in an interview with Minjoktongsin, a pro-North Korean websiteoperated by a U.S.-based Korean.


39

The agency’s establishment is part of efforts to rebuild the economy, Pak said.“An increasing number of overseas Koreans have been visiting the North to discuss invest-

ment issues. We have established the agency to handle these issues exclusively,” he wasquoted as saying, adding that the agency will begin operation in earnest in January.

Pak said he would advise potential investors to focus on construction and light industriesfor the time being, rather than resources development projects that require massive amountsof capital.

The interview was seen as part of efforts to show the outside world that the North’s eco-nomic policies will remain unchanged despite the execution earlier this month of Jang Song-thaek, the once-powerful uncle of young leader Kim Jong-un. The surprise killing has raisedconcerns about instability in Pyongyang.

Pak denounced speculations about instability as being part of a smear campaign againstPyongyang. (Yonhap News)

North Korea Opens Masik Pass Ski Resort ahead of New Year

North Korea opened a ski resort ahead of New Year, Pyongyang’s state media reportedon Jan. 1, completing one of leader Kim Jong-un’s pet projects.

The Masik Pass ski resort near the North’s east coast city of Wonsan was built on the per-sonal initiative of Kim who is believed to have enjoyed skiing in the Alps while studying inSwitzerland in the 1990s.

“The ski resort is a valuable fruition of the deep loving care shown (by the party) for thepeople to enable them enjoy luxury and comfort under socialism,” Choe Ryong-hae, theNorth Korean military’s top political officer, said in an opening ceremony on Dec. 31,according to the KCNA.

North Korean soldiers have built 10 ski courses and nearly 60 other auxiliary facilities inthe ski resort “at a lightning speed,” a project that Choe claimed would take more than 10years for other countries to complete. North Korea often mobilizes soldiers for large-scalestate construction projects.

The KCNA said that Kim had made a separate visit to the resort ahead of the opening cer-emony and ordered it to be opened to the general public as early as possible.

It is not clear how many North Koreans can afford ski in a country where the UnitedNations says food security situation is still unsatisfactory.

According to South Korea’s intelligence agency, North Korea is estimated to have “wasted”US$300 million to build leisure and sports facilities, including the ski resort, in recent years.

North Korea’s total food production is estimated to have been at about 5.03 million metrictons in 2013, up 5 percent from the previous year, the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) saidin a report posted on its Website.

Still, the food security situation is still serious, with 84 percent of all households having


40

borderline or poor food consumption, the report said.Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has instructed officials to quickly open a ski

resort to ensure people can fully enjoy skiing, the KCNA reported on Dec. 31.Kim, who studied in Switzerland and is believed to have skied in the Alps, expressed sat-

isfaction that “everything is impeccable” in the Masik ski resort, the KCNA said in a dispatch.(Yonhap News)

North Korea Announces Best Players and Coaches for 2013

North Korea has selected the 10 best athletes and 10 best coaches for the year 2013,including five weightlifters and the same number of weightlifting coaches.

Among those chosen were male weightlifters Om Yun-chol and Kim Un-guk and femaleweightlifters Ryo Un-hui, Ryang Chun-hwa and Jo Pok-hyang, all of whom won gold medalsat the 2013 Asian Cup and other major international events, according to the KCNA on Jan. 7.

Ho Un-pyol, who contributed to North Korean female football team to finish first at the2013 East Asian Cup and the 6th East Asian Games; Yun Won-chol, who won a gold in theWorld Wrestling Championship; and Sol Kyong, a female judoist who won a gold medal atthe 2013 World Judo Championship, also received the honor.

Table-tennis players Kim Hyok-bong (male) and Kim Jong (female), who won the mixeddoubles of the 52nd ITTF World Championships (individual events) and in the mixed dou-bles of the 6th East Asian Games, were also chosen.

The 10 best coaches are Ro Hyon-chol, Kim Chun-hui, Kim Yong-chol, Choe Nong-gyun andPak Ki-song (in weightlifting), Kim Kwang-min (football), Kim Chol-ung (table-tennis), PakPom-su (wrestling), Pak Kum-song (judo) and Kim Chun-phil (gymnastics). (Yonhap News)

N. Korea to Elect Deputies to Rubber-stamp Legislature in March

North Korea will hold elections in March to select deputies for its rubber-stamp legisla-ture, the country’s state news agency reported on Jan. 8, amid fresh calls to ease linger-

ing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.The SPA Presidium “decided to hold an election of deputies to the 13th SPA on March 9,”

the KCNA said in a short dispatch from Pyongyang. The dispatch did not give any furtherdetails.

The announcement came nearly a month after the North executed leader Kim Jong-un’sonce-powerful uncle, Jang Song-thaek, on charges of treason.

It also comes amid lingering concerns that the North may stage provocations against SouthKorea as it seeks to forge internal unity following its biggest political upheaval in decades.

The current members of the North’s legislature were elected in March 2009 and their five-year terms are set to end in March.


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The upcoming elections, the first since Kim took over the socialist country in 2011, areexpected to select loyalists of the young leader in a move that analysts say will further con-solidate Kim’s grip on power.

It was not immediately clear whether Kim will run for a seat in parliament. Kim’s father,long-time leader Kim Jong-il, was elected uncontested in past elections. Kim Jong-il diedsuddenly of a heart attack in 2011.

The North’s decision also comes amid the latest peace offensives by South and NorthKorea to improve their soured relations.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye proposed on Jan. 6 that the Koreas resumereunions for families separated following the 1950-53 Korean War, though the North has yetto respond.

Park’s comment came just five days after Kim called for “a favorable climate” to improveinter-Korean ties in his New Year’s message.

The conflict ended in a cease-fire, leaving the two sides still technically at war. Their borderis tightly sealed, with no direct means of contact between ordinary civilians. (Yonhap News)

<External Affairs>

North Korea Threatens to Strike South Korea ‘Without Warning’

North Korea has threatened to strike South Korea “without any notice” in anger overlocal conservative groups’ recent rallies in Seoul “insulting the dignity of the supreme

leadership of North Korea.” The North’s powerful National Defense Commission (NDC), headed by leader Kim Jong-

un, sent the threatening message to South Korea’s National Security Council through thewestern coastal military hot line, the defense ministry in Seoul said Dec. 20.

The latest threat came after several conservative groups and North Korean defectors onDec. 17 held rallies in Seoul to protest against North Korea’s authoritarian rule and humanrights abuse on the second death anniversary of former leader Kim Jong-il, the father of thecurrent leader.

During the rallies held in Gwanghwamun, central Seoul, the conservative groups burned effi-gies of North Korean founder Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un. They also called KimJong-un “the world’s devil” for executing his uncle, Jang Song-thaek, and threatening the South.

The North Korean military condemned the rallies, saying they insulted North Korea’s“highest dignity,” and vowed to “ruthlessly retaliate” against the South.

The South Korean defense ministry immediately replied through the military hot line,vowing to “sternly react” to any provocations, ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said.


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“We are closely monitoring the North Korean military’s move, preparing to sternly react toany provocations,” Kim said, noting the North has not shown unusual movement so farwhile carrying out its routine winter drills since early December.

North Korea has a long history of bellicose rhetoric, regularly threatening strikes againstSouth Korea and the United States, often in response to their joint drills particularly inspring.

The North also demanded an apology from the South Korean government in April whensome conservative groups burned an effigy bearing Kim Jong-un’s photo at a rally. (YonhapNews)

N. Korea Asks S. Korea to Choose between Trust, Confrontation

South Korea’s Park Geun-hye government should choose between trust and confrontationwith North Korea, Pyongyang’s inter-Korean affairs body said on Dec. 25, urging Seoul to

make the right choice.“Park Geun-hye pledged to take one step after another to build confidence between the

South and the North while talking about confidence building ... but Park went the lengths ofslandering the policy of the DPRK (North Korea),” the North’s Committee for the PeacefulReunification of (North) Korea said in a questionnaire addressed to the Park administration,which was carried by the North’s official KCNA.

“Confidence or confrontation?” asked one of the seven questions raised by the North. Other questions include “How does the present regime’s North policy differ from the Lee

Myung-bak regime’s confrontation policy?” and “Who should make a right option?”The committee also said the Park government is not only continuing former President Lee’s

hard-line North Korea policy but that it seeks even more fierce confrontation with the North. Responding to the questionnaire, Seoul’s Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Eyi-do said he

did not feel the need to react to the rude remarks one by one. Still, the South Korean government will release its stance to the public on Dec. 26, said the

spokesman at the ministry in charge of inter-Korean matters. (Yonhap News)

N. Korea Allows Americans to Run in Pyongyang Marathon in April

North Korea has said it will allow Americans and other foreigners to run in thePyongyang marathon in April, a U.S. tour agency said on Jan. 8.

Uri Tours, a U.S.-based agency that specializes in trips to North Korea, said that Americansand other nationalities, whether they are amateurs or professional runners, can run in theMangyongdae Prize International Marathon on April 14. Mangyongdae is the birthplace ofthe North’s founder Kim Il-sung.


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“This is the first time that Americans are allowed to run as professionals in the marathonand also the first time that amateurs will be allowed to run in the marathon,” the agency saidon its website.

It is not immediately clear how many Americans, if any, are willing to run in thePyongyang marathon.

The U.S. has no diplomatic relations with North Korea following the 1950-53 Korean Warthat ended in a cease-fire, not a peace treaty.

North Korea started the Pyongyang marathon in 1981 to mark the 69th birthday of itsfounder, Kim Il-sung. Kim’s April 15 birthday is one of the most important holidays in thesocialist country. (Yonhap News)

<Inter-Korean Affairs>

North Korea Rebuffs South Korea’s Offer to Hold Family Reunions

North Korea on Jan. 9 rejected South Korea’s proposal to hold reunions of families sepa-rated in the Korean War but hinted that reunions may take place in “good season.”

The North’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea said the North could nothold reunions around the Lunar New Year holiday, citing recent military drills in SouthKorea and its separate joint military exercises with the United States scheduled for betweenlate February and late April.

Lunar New Year’s Day, which falls on Jan. 31 this year, is one of the two biggest holidaysin Korea during which families typically get together.

Also, the North cited the cold weather and lack of preparation time as reasons for reject-ing Seoul’s offer. “Can the separated families and relatives have reunions in peace amid gun-fire?” the North’s committee handling inter-Korean affairs said in a message to South Korea’sunification ministry.

The North’s rejection came three days after South Korean President Park Geun-hye on Jan.6 called for resuming the reunions, one of highly emotional issues for those who haven’tseen their kin in over 60 years.

The move also came eight days after the North’s leader Kim Jong-un called for “a favor-able climate” to improve cross-border ties and pledged to make aggressive efforts for betterrelations in his New Year’s message.

Still, the North’s committee said that South and North Korea “can sit together in a goodseason,” if there is “no other thing happening on the South’s side and if the South’s side hasintent to discuss the proposals of our side.” The committee did not elaborate on a specifictime frame for family reunions.


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South Korea said the North’s demands may refer to Pyongyang’s repeated calls to resumea tour program to Mount Kumgang, a scenic mountain resort on North Korea’s east coast.

While snubbing the family reunion offer, the North said the event may take place later in“good season” should the South agree to confer on “issues of our concern,” referring to thetour project.

South Korea suspended the tours to the mountain resort following the shooting death of aSouth Korean tourist by a North Korean guard in 2008. North Korea has since repeatedlycalled for the resumption of the tour program, which served as one of a few legitimate rev-enue sources for the cash-strapped country.

Another North Korean demand may be its longstanding demand that South Korea and theU.S. stop their annual joint military exercises, which Pyongyang claims are a rehearsal for anuclear war against the North.

The unification ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, expressed regret to NorthKorea for linking military drills to a humanitarian issue. It also said family reunions and talkson the North’s mountain resort are two separate issues.

Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said South Korea will go ahead with its jointmilitary maneuvers with the U.S., noting they are defensive in nature.

Last year, the sides agreed to hold family reunions at Mount Kumgang, but Pyongyangabruptly called them off at the last minute.

The divided Koreas have held more than a dozen rounds of reunions since their landmarksummit in 2000, bringing together more than 21,700 family members who had not seen eachother since the war.

There is no direct means of contact between ordinary civilians of the two countries thatremain divided by a heavily fortified border.

The committee said the North is glad that South Korea has proposed family reunions andsaid its message “expressed the stance of our side to make efforts for the improvement ofthe North-South relations in the future, too.”

The unification ministry called on the North to show its sincerity toward improving inter-Korean relations through “actions, not words.”

The next day on Jan. 10, South Korea renewed its call for the North to accept its offer offamily reunions, expressing its intention to discuss restarting the lucrative tours to MountKumgang. “We urge North Korea to show a sincere attitude toward our offer,” unificationministry spokesman Kim Eui-do told reporters.

Kim said that the tour program could be discussed separately from the issue of familyreunions, though he did not give a specific time frame. “The reunions mean not only thepath to heal the wounds of aging members of the separated families but also a first steptoward improved inter-Korean relations.”

In particular, Kim expressed the government’s willingness to resume tours to MountKumgang in about five years, and he mentioned its plans to expand humanitarian assistanceto the impoverished neighbor this year. (Yonhap News)

STUDIESVantage Point February 2014

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THE TRUST-BUILDING PROCESS ON THE KOREANPENINSULA AND NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR ISSUE:FOCUSING ON SEOUL-BEIJING COOPERATION

I. Introduction

The catchwords dominating the key internal and external poli-cies pursued by a new South Korean government led byPresident Park Geun-hye are “trust” and “confidence.” Thesewords serve as a base for laying the groundwork for unification,and at the same time they serve as a driving force in garneringthe support of its citizens and the cooperation of the internation-al community regarding North Korea.1) The Park Geun-hye gov-ernment is attempting to seek peace and stability in NortheastAsia through a trust-building process on the Korean Peninsulaand an initiative for promoting peace and cooperation in theregion. The role that China will play will be very significant inthe Park Geun-hye government’s ideas and policies.

The Park Geun-hye government has pursued its own NorthKorea policy aimed at improving inter-Korean relations sincePark’s inauguration on Feb. 25, 2013, while calling for a trust-building process on the Korean Peninsula based on a firm secu-rity posture. Inter-Korean relations have experienced a hard timein recent years when the North launched a long-range rocket onDec. 12, 2012, just a week before Park won the presidentialelection; conducted its third nuclear test on Feb. 12, 2013, short-ly before her inauguration as state president; closed down theindustrial complex in Kaesong in the North that housed hun-dreds of South Korean companies for months; and called off anagreed meeting for arranging the reunion of Koreans whose

By Park Byeong-kwang,Senior Research Fellow

at the Institute for National

Security Strategy,

Seoul, Korea

STUDIES Vantage Point February 2014

46

family members were separated by theKorean War.

Under these developments, PresidentPark visited the United States in March2013 and China in June that year whileparticipating in a summit of the group of20 major economies in September 2013and a summit of the Asia-Pacific EconomicCooperation (APEC) the next month fordiplomatic activities aimed at winningwider international support of her ideas fordenuclearizing and stabilizing the KoreanPeninsula. APEC is a forum for 21 Pacific-rim economies that seeks to promote freetrade and economic cooperation through-out the Asia-Pacific region. The Park Geun-hye government has undoubtedly demon-strated its unyielding will to remain firm inits principles regarding inter-Korean rela-tions and diplomatic arenas since Park’sinauguration.

Unfortunately, President Park has yet tofind and outline fundamental principles foreliminating North Korea’s nuclear weaponsdevelopment program. The new NorthKorean leadership led by Kim Jong-un hasbeen pursuing a two-pronged policy call-ing for the development of its economyand the reinforcement of its nuclear arse-nal, while simultaneously promoting itsstatus as a nuclear power. The Workers’Party of Korea (WPK), the North Koreanversion of the Communist Party, held aplenary session of its Central Committee toset forth a new strategic line on carryingout economic construction and buildingnuclear armed forces simultaneously andto meet the legitimate requirement of thedeveloping revolution, according to theNorth Korean media.

“It was stressed at the meeting that the

party’s new line is not a temporary coun-termeasure for coping with the rapidlychanging situation but a strategic line to bealways held fast to, in the supreme inter-ests of the Korean revolution,” it added.2)

Most likely, the Park Geun-hye govern-ment will be faced with the task of dealingwith two factors that are incompatible witheach other in the course of implementingthe aforementioned trust-building processon the Korean Peninsula. These factors arenamely the promotion of closer relationsbetween the two Koreas, and the North’sambitions to arm itself with nuclearweapons.

In reality, the South Korean governmentcan hardly settle the questions of inter-Korean relations and North Korea’s nuclearweapons development program alone. Forthis reason, its diplomacy toward the fourpowers, namely, the U.S., Japan, Russiaand China, is significant for the proper set-tlement of the issues. And its relationshipwith China is more important than thatwith other countries. This is because Chinahas an influence on North Korea whetherit regards inter-Korean relations or theNorth’s nuclear issue; China is the North’spivotal ally, providing the North with sub-stantial economic assistance.

The Park Geun-hye government and theXi Jinping government share the view thata peaceful, stable Korean peninsularequires a change in the North’s behavior.Despite their agreement on this matter,they have exposed limitations in develop-ing close cooperation between them fordrawing common concrete measuresaimed at persuading the North to changeits behavior. For this reason, this essay willdiscuss the possible ways of cooperation


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between Seoul and Beijing to implementthe trust-building process on the KoreanPeninsula proposed by the Park Geun-hyegovernment in order to solve problemsinvolving North Korea.

II. Seoul-Beijing Relations Sincethe Launch of the Park Geun-hye Government

Under the strategy for launching confi-dence-based diplomacy related with atrust-building process on the KoreanPeninsula, the Park Geun-hye governmenthas made the balanced development of theSeoul-Washington alliance and the Seoul-Beijing cooperative partnership one of itskeynote policy goals.3) It has presented apolicy goal to develop the Seoul-Washington alliance to a comprehensivestrategic one and to promote actual gainsof the Seoul-Beijing cooperative partner-ship. In other words, this policy goal canindicate that South Korea will developcloser relations with China to the extentthat Seoul-Beijing ties will not negativelyaffect the Seoul-Washington alliance.

In her capacity as president-elect, Parkhad already said that Seoul-Beijing tiesshould be upgraded in a way that is suit-able for their strategic cooperative partner-ship, while choosing China as the countrywhere she would send her special envoyearlier than other countries. It undoubtedlyindicated her intention to promote closerrelations between Korea and China. Herpolicy may raise China’s expectations inthe sense that the Seoul government canmake a closer approach to China, a depar-ture from an out-and-out pro-American

policy in the past. Kim Moo-sung, the spe-cial envoy of then president-elect ParkGeun-hye, met with his Chinese counter-part at the Great Hall of the People on Jan.23, 2013. Chinese leader Xi Jinping saidPark’s dispatch of the special envoy wasample evidence that Park highly values themeaning of the Beijing-Seoul friendshipand the development of their relations,while supporting the international cam-paign for the denuclearization of theKorean peninsula. He also clarified hisposition not to agree with North Korea’sarmed provocations and its challenge tothe international community.4)

In the meantime, President Park made afour-day state visit to China in 2013 startingon June 26 following her trip to the U.S.the preceding month and provided footingfor reinforcing Seoul’s ties with China thatwere neglected by South Korea under a tri-angular alliance involving Seoul,Washington and Tokyo. In her visit toChina, evaluated as more successful thanever in both formula and content,President Park not only promoted confi-dence-building and mutual understandingwith the Chinese leadership, but con-tributed to promoting Seoul’s image to theChinese citizens as their old friend.

In the Seoul-Beijing summit, the twoleaders adopted the “ROK-China JointStatement for the Future and the ActionPlan to Enrich ROK-China StrategicCooperative Partnership” only to declarethe opening of new horizons of the Seoul-Beijing relationship. Reviewing the devel-opment of bilateral relations between thetwo countries for more than 20 years sincethe two countries normalized their diplo-matic ties in August 1992, the joint state-


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ment carries their will “to develop theirrelationship to comprehensive, multi-levelcooperative partnership in various fieldsincluding politics, security, economy, trade,personnel-cultural exchange and interna-tional cooperation.” Two leaders adoptednot only a joint statement on the futurerelationship between the two countries,but an action plan for it only to promotethe substantial gains of their strategic part-nership and provide a footing for theirmatured relationship in the 21st century.This development can be described as fol-lows: “A boat called the ROK-China strate-gic cooperative partnership can now starton a grand voyage, setting the directionand the destination.”

Significant among the achievementsPresident Park made in meetings with herChinese counterpart was the building of afoothold for settling North Korea’s nuclearprogram and going ahead with a trust-building process on the Korean Peninsula,plus an initiative for promoting peace inNortheast Asia.

“China welcomes President Park Geun-hye’s ‘Korean Peninsula confidence-build-ing process,’” the joint statement said,while expressing its support in principlefor the Northeast Asia Peace andCooperation Plan proposed by PresidentPark. It went on: “Both sides agreed thatthe development of nuclear weaponsposes a serious threat to peace and stabili-ty in Northeast Asia, including the KoreanPeninsula, and in the world. Both sidesacknowledged that to achieve the denu-clearization of the Korean Peninsula andmaintain peace and stability on the KoreanPeninsula coincides with the commoninterests of all parties, agreeing to work

together to this end.” As aforementioned, the Chinese leader-

ship clarified China’s support for Seoul’sidea for a trust-building process on theKorean Peninsula and its initiative for pro-moting peace and cooperation in NortheastAsia, while senior Chinese officials, includ-ing Premier Li Keqiang, actively upheld theSouth Korean government’s position inmeetings with President Park. This indi-cates not only that the two countries havereached a complete agreement not toaccept the North’s nuclear ambitions, butthat China has begun to be furnished witha more balanced posture toward the twoKoreas, a departure from its traditionalbehavior embracing North Korea uncondi-tionally.

“The Chinese side reiterated its supportfor the two Koreas’ efforts to enhance trustthrough dialogue and improve relations,and ultimately realize the wish of theKorean nation’s peaceful reunification,”said the joint statement, opening thechance for Seoul-Beijing cooperation inprograms to make the groundwork for thepeaceful unification of the two Koreas.

As is well known, the Chinese policytoward the Korean Peninsula places toppriority on peace and stability of thepeninsula, and China values good andfriendly relations with its neighboringcountries. Fortunately, China hails the ParkGeun-hye government’s proposal for aconfidence-building process on the penin-sula because it coincides with the Chinesepolicy on the peninsula. China is alsokeeping a close eye on the principles forthe peaceful unification of the two Koreasclarified in the process. For this reason,China clarified its support for the peaceful


49

unification of the two Koreas in the jointstatement. President Xi Jinping has alsosaid that one of the two things desired bythe Chinese people in relation to theKorean Peninsula is its denuclearization.The other desire is to see is its peacefulunification.

Despite the firm stance on the denu-clearization of the Korean Peninsula heldby the leaderships of both of the countriesand their unswerving will to develop clos-er relations with each other, it will unlikelybe easy for the Park government to estab-lish a proper North Korea policy and pro-grams for developing closer ties withBeijing. This is because China gave a warmreception to Park Geun-hye during hervisit and voiced its support for improvingits relations with South Korea, probably forits judgment that Park’s North Korea policyshould differ from that being pursued byher predecessor, Lee Myung-bak.

The Chinese leadership believes thatwhat is essential to solving the issue ofNorth Korea’s nuclear program is dialogue,and undoubtedly expects the Park Geun-hye government to make an active attemptat improving relations between the twoKoreas and resuming inter-Korean talks,which have been in the doldrums foryears. If South Korea fails to live up tothese Chinese expectations, there could beestrangement between the two countries atany time, and this undesirable develop-ment will negatively affect their coopera-tion for the denuclearization of the KoreanPeninsula.

III. North Korea-China RelationsSince the Inauguration of XiJinping

1. North Korea’s Third Nuclear Test andNorth Korea-China Relations

The core issue, which has caused ten-sions and discord in relations betweenNorth Korea and China in the 21st century,involves the question of the North’snuclear weapons development program.China’s pivotal policy toward the KoreanPeninsula has been to maintain peace onand stability on the peninsula, and the coreof its North Korea policy has been to pro-mote stability in the country. This is consis-tent with the Chinese policy goals: tomaintain peace and stability in the areassurrounding China. But North Korea’snuclear weapons development programand armed provocations have hamperedstability on the peninsula and in NortheastAsia, and seriously affected China’s rela-tionship with the U.S. and South Korea ina negative way. Despite these develop-ments, the North Korea policy pursued inthe recent two decades by two Chineseleaders, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, wasunsuccessful in solving the North’s nuclearissue. As a result, the leadership of XiJingping is entrusted with the job to settlethe issue.

Already in early days after Xi Jinping’sinauguration, the leadership was trappedin a troublesome diplomatic situationbecause of the North’s nuclear issue; a situ-ation where its North Korea policy wasbeing put to the test. China lost face as anally of North Korea in 2012 when theNorth launched a long-range rocket on


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Dec. 12, less than one month after XiJinping launched his leadership in theCommunist Party of China (CPC) as gener-al secretary. And the North conducted itsthird nuclear test on Feb. 12 the next year,about one month before he became statepresident. In other words, North Korea,who has been an ally of China for a longtime, is acting as a spoiler against theChinese national interest at a time whenstability is needed more than ever in thispart of the world.

The Xi Jinping leadership was put to thetest when the North came out with a bar-rage of belligerent rhetoric against SouthKorea following its long-range rocketlaunch and third nuclear test. In a move tocounter these undesirable developments,China seemed to adjust its relationshipwith the North in a way to dissuade theNorth from going its own way and sent awarning message to the North. This indi-cates that China’s patience toward theNorth under the Xi Jinping leadership iswearing thin and that the relationsbetween the North and China are becom-ing more complicated.5)

An abnormal situation facing the North-China relationship was sensed in Chinaunder the Xi Jinping leadership. Not onlythe Chinese general public and profession-als, but Chinese political leaders haveexposed their unsatisfactory feelingstoward the North while mentioning tensionand troubles in relations between Chinaand its neighboring ally. Chinese ForeignMinister Wang Yi, for instance, whileexpressing China’s grave concerns overtensions on the Korean Peninsula in a tele-phone conversation with U.N. SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki-moon on April 6 last year,

said, “Beijing opposes any provocativewords and actions from any party in theregion and does not allow troublemakingat the doorsteps of China.” The next daythe Italice an organ of the CPC CentralCommittee, warned the North not to mis-calculate the current situation. In a meetingwith visiting U.S. Secretary of State JohnKerry on April 13 last year, while referringto any troublemaking on the KoreanPeninsula issue, Chinese Premier LiKeqiang said, “To do that is nothing differ-ent from lifting a rock only to drop it onone’s own toes.” And in his openingaddress for the Boao Forum for the AsianAnnual Conference 2013 on April 7 lastyear, Chinese President Xi Jinping alsosaid, “No one should be allowed to throwa region and even the whole world intochaos for selfish gains,” undoubtedlyanother warning message to the North.

But not all of China’s messages since theNorth’s nuclear test were constant. In apress meeting held his capacity as Chineseforeign minister on March 9 last year, YangJiechi said China maintains that sanctionsare not the end of the U.N. SecurityCouncil’s actions, or the fundamental wayof solving the Korean Peninsula nuclearissue. The only correct solution to theKorean Peninsula nuclear issue is to holdnegotiations and resolve all parties’ con-cerns in a comprehensive and balancedway, he said, adding that, “We call on allrelevant parties to bear in mind the largerinterest, stay calm, exercise restraint, andrefrain from taking any moves that mayfurther worsen the situation.” WhenPresident Park Geun-hye, while visiting theU.S. in May last year, asked China to exerta bigger influence over the North and per-


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suade it to make right choices, aspokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministrymade a principle-oriented answer, sayingthat in dealing with important issuesregarding regional security, China hasalways shown an impartial, responsibleattitude. Furthermore, China began to easeits tough attitude toward North Korea after

North Korean special envoy ChoeRyong-hae visited China during May 22-24,followed by Chinese Vice President LiYuanchao’s four-day visit to the Northstarting on July 25. Of course, the facialexpressions of Chinese leaders meetingChoe were unlike those in the past whenthey have usually treated North Koreanguests as traditional friendly comrades. Butthe atmosphere in China changed, andChina began to ask for a solution to prob-lems involving North Korea and for a stabi-lized Korean Peninsula immediately afterthe North wanted a solution to its nuclearquestion through various forms of talksand negotiations, including the six-waytalks involving the two Koreas, the U.S.,Japan, Russia and China. On the occasionof Li Yuanchao’s visit to the North, Chinalifted restrictions imposed on its exports tothe North and its tourists’ trips to the Northafter the country’s third nuclear test, result-ing in a recovery in trade between the twocountries.6)

These developments indicate that thespecial relations between China and theNorth continue to work in China under theXi Jinping leadership, as implied by theChinese proverb: “You can blush, but youcannot turn your back on an old friend.”China, under the Hu Jintao leadership,failed to change its party-to-party specialrelations with the North to state-to-state

normal relations, as the North refused tomeet the Chinese demand. It is yet to beseen whether or not China, under the XiJinping leadership, can manage to attainthat goal. In fact, delicate moves in rela-tions between China and the North haveemerged. But we need to observe thedevelopment of the relations between thetwo countries in a cool-headed, objectiveway, reminding ourselves of their occa-sional double talk.

2. A Change in North Korea Policy ofChina under the Xi JinpingLeadership?

The following question was raised bysome North Korea watchers in Seoul andelsewhere while observing the develop-ment of relations between China and theNorth since the inauguration of the XiJinping government: “Can the Xi Jinpingleadership manage to enter an era of ameaningful change in China’s North Koreapolicy beyond a change merely in its per-ception of the North, a departure from theHu Jintao era?” In other words, this ques-tion can be replaced by another one: Canthe Xi Jinping leadership take the initiativein a campaign for a strategically meaning-ful and drastic change in China’s traditionalNorth Korea policy, and not just a tacticallyfine tuning? This question is plausiblebecause the Chinese North Korea policy inthe Hu Jintao era showed a change in itsperception of the North, but the changefails to lead to a change in the policyitself.7)

The Chinese policy on the KoreanPeninsula in the Hu Jintao era had threeobjectives: peace, stability and denu-


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clearization. In other words, peace andstability on the peninsula were coreobjectives of the policy, and Chinaapplied it to its North Korea policy,putting more of an emphasis on stability,rather than denuclearization. For this rea-son, China was anxious about sanctionsagainst the North being used to solve theNorth’s nuclear issue, fearing they maystimulate the North excessively or bringabout the collapse of the socialist regime,resulting in a more uneasy situation onthe peninsula. North Korea has conductednuclear tests twice while Hu Jintao was incharge, but China changed its status froman arbiter simply to a manager, and not atroubleshooter.

Regrettably, however, China under theXi Jinping leadership will most likely con-tinue to play its role as a manager in theinternational campaign for settling theNorth’s nuclear issue while succeeding theNorth Korea policy pursued by the HuJintao regime. During President ParkGeun-hye’s visit to China in June 2013,Seoul and Beijing announced a joint state-ment in a move to boost actual gains oftheir strategic, cooperative partnership.And the Chinese leadership expressed itsposition to share Seoul’s stand to pushahead with the North’s denuclearization,or not to accept the North’s nuclear ambi-tions. But it was unwilling to write downits position not to accept the North’snuclear ambitions.8) This behavior is likelyaimed at preventing North Korea frommaking radical actions that would hamperpeace and stability on the KoreanPeninsula, and is unlikely aimed at makinga fundamental change in its relations withthe North and its key North Korea poli-

cies.If so, what is the meaning of moves criti-

cal of North Korea and warning messagesto the North which appeared in China inthe early phase of the Xi Jinping govern-ment? These developments might indicatethat China has viewed the North’s nuclearissue as a stumbling block to the establish-ment of its new relationship with the U.S.They also indicate that China has takencountermeasures in its response to theNorth’s deviant behavior at a time when itdeemed that its relationship with the U.Swas of the utmost importance. Chinabehaved in that way, undoubtedly becauseit was worried about a situation in whichNorth’s nuclear tests and provocationscould deepen U.S. involvement in Asia andhasten the U.S. rebalancing policy only tonegatively affect the core of Chinesenational interest.

It will be no more than a naive way ofthinking if you judge that with the emer-gence of the new leadership of Xi Jinping,China will seek a change in its NorthKorea policy aimed at fundamentallyrealigning its relationship with the North.We need to understand that the special,complex nature of the relationshipbetween North Korea and China has notoriginated in a specific event taking placeat a specific point in time, but in the extra-ordinary history of the development oftheir relationship.

For this reason, we can fall into the falla-cy of making wishful judgments away fromthe quintessence of the relationshipbetween the two countries, if we predictthat China will make a change in its NorthKorea policy and strategy whenever NorthKorea conducts a nuclear test and brings


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about tension in its relations with China.We need to discuss the need for China tomake a change in its North Korea policyonly when it reduces the supply of strate-gic materials to the North or suspends it, orwhen China takes mandatory measures tochange its party-to-party relationship withthe North to a state-to-state one.

IV. Differences between Seouland Beijing in Dealing with aNuclear N. Korea

South Korea and China are in the sameposition as far as disarming a nuclearNorth Korea is concerned. They also sharethe view that the North’s program to devel-op nuclear weapons and arm itself withthem threatens the regional stability. If so,why does the North’s nuclear issue serveas a stumbling block to the developmentof closer relations between Seoul andBeijing and the implementation of Seoul’spolicy on China? It is because they differfrom each other in the way they approachthe issue and in the way they view the fac-tors causing the issue, despite their sameobjective?

First of all, Seoul and Beijing differ fromeach other in the way they perceive theNorth’s nuclear issue. To discuss it indetail, they hold different views on thebackground and motives of the North’snuclear weapons development program.The gap between their views was wide inthe initial phase of the nuclear crisis on theKorean Peninsula touched off by the Northin the early 1990s. Then the dominatingview in China was that all North Koreanefforts to develop nuclear weapons were

aimed at promoting its national pride andwinning international recognition of its sta-tus as a normal state. For this reason, itwas seen that the international communitydid not need to be anxious of the North’smoves because it could settle the issuethrough talks and compromise with theNorth.9) A majority of Chinese scholars alsobelieved that the U.S., rather than theNorth, was responsible for the nuclear cri-sis on the Korean Peninsula. In otherwords, the North had to hasten the devel-opment of nuclear weapons because theBush Administration in the U.S. began toput across-the-board pressure on NorthKorea upon its inauguration in early 2001.In particular, after the Sept. 11, 2001 terror-ist attacks on the U.S., they viewed NorthKorea, along with Iran and Iraq, as “anaxis of evil, while criticizing the NorthKorean leader indiscriminately. TheChinese scholars were sympathetic to theNorth’s moves to develop nuclearweapons, based on their own understand-ing of the North.

China became aware of the seriousnature of the North’s nuclear weapons pro-gram belatedly after the North conductedits first nuclear test in October 2006. Thena growing number of Chinese scholarsbegan to support the view that Chinaneeds to take active measures to counterthe North’s nuclear weapons developmentprogram and make a change in its diplo-matic way of thinking. According to theview, a nuclear-armed North Korea couldnot only hamper Chinese national interestsbut threaten security and peace inNortheast Asia.

China needs to take countermeasures onthe North’s nuclear weapons development


54

program because it can provide the U.S.with an excuse for its involvement inNortheast Asian affairs and its blockade ofChina. For this reason, some Chinesescholars maintain that diplomatic effortshave their own limitation in denuclearizingthe Korean Peninsula, and China needseconomic and other supplementary mea-sures for pressing the North, should itachieve its goal to make a nuclear-freepeninsula.

Noteworthy is the fact that all Chinesescholars view pressure from the U.S. onNorth Korea as fundamentally responsiblefor the situation when North’s nuclearprogram flared up, whether they belongto the “traditional” faction or “the interna-tional” one. This Chinese view differscompletely from the dominating view ofSouth Korean scholars. The sweepingmajority of North Korea watchers in Seoulmaintain that the North’s nuclear issuebecame serious because the North contin-ued to develop nuclear weapons secretly,violating the Agreed Framework, a 1994U.S.-North Korea agreement calling forthe freezing of the North’s nuclearweapons development program inexchange for an array of compensation.They also believe that the North partic-ipated in the six-way talks aimed at end-ing the North’s nuclear program com-pletely under a strategy for deception,and that the country never had any inten-tion of giving up its nuclear weaponsdevelopment program.

South Korea and China differ from eachother in the way of approaching theNorth’s nuclear issue for its settlement.Above all, China intends to exclude sanc-tions against the North and putting pres-

sure on the North in the course of settlingthe issue. This Chinese position is basedon the view that pressure on the North andother radical measures against it can bringabout the collapse of the North Koreanregime, worsening the situation and mak-ing it more uncertain. But Seoul believesthat the solution for ending the North’snuclear weapons program requires notonly efforts to persuade the North butmeasures to put pressure on it.

The South Korean and Chinese govern-ments are pursuing their own North Koreapolicy. The Lee Myung-bak government inSeoul had placed top policy priority on theNorth’s denuclearization, followed by anopening-up and economic development ofthe North, while China placed top priorityon the stability in the North, followed byan opening-up and denuclearization.Unlike its predecessor, the Park Geun-hyegovernment does not place an extraordi-nary emphasis on the country’s denu-clearization, but it asks the North to showthe will for denuclearization and sinceremeasures towards that goal as precondi-tions for the resumption of the six-waytalks, clarifying its position that it will notparticipate in any dialogue for the sake ofdialogue.10)

V. How Can Seoul and BeijingCooperate with Each Other,and for What?

In fact, there is no simple solution to allproblems involving North Korea, includingits disarmament. Through six-way talks,the international community has soughtways to denuclearize the North, coming up


55

with optimum ideas and methods, includ-ing a joint statement on Sept. 19, 2005 andInitial Actions for the Implementation ofthe Joint Statement as announced on Feb.13, 2007.

Probably, they have already suggestedthe most reasonable and effective ways tosettle the North’s nuclear issue. For thisreason, the international community,including China -- which has served asthe host of the six-way talks -- calls onthe North to abide by the joint statementand follow through with its commitmentthere.

China believes that the way to denu-clearize the North is for the internationalcommunity to help stabilize the North’ssystem, have the North rely on China andthe global community for its economy andeventually enter reforms and open up. Ifthis process is able to bring about inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation andmake a breakthrough in the ending of theNorth’s nuclear weapons program, theinternational community needs to makesuch an attempt.

Any country alone can hardly lead theNorth to reforms and an opening-up,especially without South Korea’s supportand cooperation and without inter-Koreancontacts and talks. In addition, the North’snuclear issue will be settled and new his-tory of the Korean peninsula will be creat-ed only under active cooperation andcommunications between South Korea andChina, plus their strategic mutual confi-dence.

North Korea’s nuclear problem willreach an irreversibly serious point if andwhen the North succeeds in producingnuclear weapons based on enriched urani-

um, in addition to the traditional plutoni-um, and downsizing them to warheads formissiles. This assumption may imply thatthe five-year term of the office for the ParkGeun-hye government might be the lastchance for South Korea to attempt to makea breakthrough in the nuclear issue.Accordingly, there is a mandatory need forSeoul and Beijing to reach an agreementon the way to approach the issue and theway to settle it, plus more advanced con-crete measures. The Seoul-Beijing coopera-tion will yield substantial results and thetrust-building process on the KoreanPeninsula will enter the right track onlywhen the phrase, “the unwillingness toaccept the North’s nuclear weapons,” asagreed upon by leaders of the two coun-tries, does not remain simply as rhetoricbut leads to action.

“On whose side is time?” Seoul andBeijing need to seriously ponder this ques-tion, because the North’s nuclear weaponsprogram has continued to make progresswhile the six-way talks have remained idleover the past five years. In recent years,China has stressed the need to resume thesix-way talks and has exerted its bestefforts to that effect. Because the successof the trust-building process on the KoreanPeninsula requires North Korea’s positiveresponse and its participation in talks,Seoul need to examine the proposal forthe resumption of the six-way talks in apositive way.

Even if Seoul can hardly be active fortheir resumption because there is neithersincere behavior shown by the North norsincere measures, it needs to refrain fromgiving the impression that the SouthKorean government will hamper the


56

resumption of the talks if it wants to mini-mize the negative effects of its behaviorwith its relations with China.

Seoul and Beijing need to expand theircommon pursuit for a solution to theNorth’s nuclear disarmament throughsteady efforts and contacts. This is becausethey are equipped with the same will notto accept the North’s nuclear ambitionsand the same goal for denuclearizing theNorth, but they differ from each other inthe perception of the fundamental back-ground of the issue and the way to settlethe issue. The formation of a point of con-tact, however, requires their strenuousefforts for promoting mutual trust andstrategic communication.

Seoul’s confidence-based diplomacyasserted by its trust-building process onthe Korean peninsula should be directedto China, among other countries. Seouland Beijing need to cooperate with eachother to awaken the North to the fact thatits nuclear development program is nothelpful for its security and economicdevelopment, but rather harmful.Furthermore, Seoul needs to help Chinaunderstand that a nuclear-armed NorthKorea will eventually be detrimental to itsnational interest. And China needs toeventually behave as a troubleshooter andnot as a manager as far as the North’snuclear issue is concerned.

(The original Korean version of thisessay was carried in the November 2013edition of the KDI Review of the NorthKorean Economy published by the KoreaDevelopment Institute (KDI), a state-runthink-tank in Seoul, South Korea.)

Notes:

1) The Ministry of Unification, The Trust-buildingProcess on the Korean Peninsula (Seoul, theMinistry of Unification, 2013), p. 5.

2) Kim Jong-un, “A Conclusion Drawn at theMarch Plenary Session of the CentralCommittee of the Workers’ Party of Korea,”Rodong Sinmun, April 2, 2013.

3) Office for Government Policy Coordination atthe Prime Minister’s Secretariat, The Plan forPolicy Goals Set by the Park Geun-hyeGovernment, May 28, 2013.

4) The Yonyap News Agency, Jan. 23, 2013.5) Jayshree Bajoria and Beina Xu, “The China-

North Korea Relationship,” CFR Report ,February 21, 2013.

6) Daily NK, May 14, 2013; Radio Free Asia, July12, 2013.

7) Park Byeong-kwang, “The Keynote of China’sNorth Korea Policy in the Hu Jintao Era andIts Perception of North Korea,” InternationalJournal of Korean Unification Studies, Vol. 19,No. 1, (Seoul, Korea Institute for NationalUnification, 2010), p. 76.

8) The Dong-A Ilbo, Nov. 14, 2013.9) Park Byeong-kwang, “How Was the Special

Relations between North Korea and ChinaFormed?” Jeong Deok-koo, Choo Suo-ryong etal., North Korea-China Relationship at aCrossroads: a Dilemma Facing China’s NorthKorea Policy, (Seoul, JoongAng Books, 2013),pp. 101-110.

10) The Chosun Ilbo, Oct. 8, 2013.

FOREIGN TIPSVantage Point February 2014

57

U.S. Blacklists Myanmar Entities for Ties with N. Korea<Yonhap from WASHINGTON/ December 17, 2013>

— In a new measure aimed at blocking illicit arms trade between North Korea andMyanmar, the Obama administration imposed sanctions on Dec. 17 on a Myanmar militaryofficial and three Myanmar firms.— The Treasury said its action does not “generally target” the Myanmar government as it

targets those linked to the Southeast Asian nation’s Directorate of Defense Industries (DDI),“which has been involved in purchasing military equipment and related material from NorthKorea.”— “The revenues from these continuing military sales directly support North Korea’s illicit

activities,” Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen said in astatement.

Kim Jong-un’s Aunt Returns Home in November after Heart Treatment Abroad<Yonhap from BEIJING/ December 20, 2013>— The aunt of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appeared to have returned to

Pyongyang in November after receiving treatment abroad for heart disease, a diplomaticsource with knowledge in the matter said on Dec. 20. — The whereabouts of Kim Kyong-hui, a younger sister of late North Korean leader Kim

Jong-il, the father of the current leader, have been a focus of media attention following thestunning purge and execution of her husband Jang Song-thaek in earlier December. — “To my knowledge, Kim Kyong-hui had been receiving treatment for heart disease and

returned to North Korea in November,” the source said on the condition of anonymity.Where precisely she had been treated in November, whether it was China or Russia, isunclear, the source said.

Satellite Spots N. Korea’s Fuel Fabrication Facilities in Yongbyon<Yonhap from WASHINGTON/ December 23, 2013>— North Korea appears to be running a new fuel fabrication plant in Yongbyon, an

apparent sign that the secretive country is making an extensive effort to modernize andrestart its nuclear facilities, a U.S. think tank said on Dec. 23 in a report.— “Commercial satellite imagery has identified facilities at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific

Research Center that may produce fuel for North Korea’s recently restarted 5 MW plutoniumproduction reactor,” the U.S.-Korea Institute said on its “38 North” website. — The Washington-based think tank is associated with the Johns Hopkins School of

Advanced International Studies.

N. Korea Struggles to Stem Flow of Defectors after Bloody Purge<Yonhap from SEOUL/ December 26, 2013>— North Korea has strengthened its border patrol and dispatched agents to China to try to

FOREIGN TIPS Vantage Point February 2014

58

stem the flow of defections of its people, a South Korean official familiar with the issue saidon Dec. 26.— North Korean border guards along the country’s porous border with China have been

put on high alert to arrest those who try to flee, the official said.- The official also said the North has sent its agents to China in cooperation with the

Chinese authorities to try to find North Korean defectors and send them back to the North.— It is not the first time that the North has cracked down on defectors, but the latest

crackdown came days after North Korea executed leader Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek, who had long been considered the North’s No. 2 man and Kim’s regent.

N. Korea’s Grain Production Likely to Grow in 2013<Yonhap from SEJONG, Korea/ December 27, 2013>— North Korea’s grain production is expected to rise slightly this year, a report said on

Dec. 27, possibly higher than initially estimated.— According to the report from South Korea’s Rural Development Administration (RDA),

the North’s overall grain production in the 2013-2014 harvest year is expected to reach 4.81million tons, up 3 percent from 4.68 million tons tallied in the 2012-2013 period.— The rise comes partly from an increase in rice output, which is estimated to gain 2.9

percent on-year to 2.1 million tons.— The figure has a gap with an earlier estimate from the U.N. Food and Agriculture

Organization (FAO), which forecast the socialist state’s rice output to reach 1.7

North Korea Recalls Deputy UNESCO Envoy Amid Political Unrest<Yonhap from BEIJING/ December 30, 2013>— North Korea’s deputy ambassador to UNESCO was called back to Pyongyang from

Paris on Dec. 30, a diplomatic source said, marking the latest summoning of North Koreandiplomats following the recent execution of leader Kim Jong-un’s uncle.— Hong Yong, the North’s deputy permanent delegate to UNESCO, and his wife were

spotted at the Beijing airport before boarding an Air Koryo flight earlier in the day, thesource said on the condition of anonymity.

— Earlier, the North’s ambassador to Sweden, Pak Kwang-chol, returned to North Korea.Pak was one of the close aides to the purged uncle, Jang Song-thaek. — Pak took up the post in September 2012, according to a report by the North’s state

media. Little is known about Pak, including his age, but his name was listed as a member ofthe state funeral commission on Dec. 19, 2011, following the death of Kim’s father, KimJong-il.

WFP’s Food Aid to North Korea Hits All-time Low in 2013<Yonhap from SEOUL/ January 1, 2014>— North Korea received record-low food aid from the United Nations food agency in

FOREIGN TIPSVantage Point February 2014

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2013 due to sluggish contributions from the international community, a media report said onJan. 1.

— Some 38,000 tons of food were delivered from the World Food Program (WFP) to thesocialist country in 2013, some 30 percent of the agency’s target for the year, according tothe Washington-based Radio Free Asia (RFA).— It was less than half the amount sent in the previous year and the smallest since 1996

when the agency began helping the North, the report said, adding it was attributable to theWFP’s failure to raise enough funds to achieve the goal.— The amount of the U.N. agency’s food aid to the North has been fluctuating from some

136,000 tons in 2008, 50,000 tons in 2010, 100,000 tons in 2011 and 84,000 tons in 2012,according to WFP data.

N. Korea Still Worst in Nuclear Material Security: NTI Survey<Yonhap from WASHINGTON/ January 8, 2014>— North Korea remains at the bottom of a major ranking of nuclear materials security

conditions, a nonprofit group of experts in Washington said on Jan. 8.— The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), which is working to curb the threat of nuclear terror-

ism and accidents, released the results of a survey of 25 countries with one kilogram or more ofweapons-usable nuclear material. It was conducted with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

— The NTI ranked North Korea 25th, giving it just 30 points out of the total 100. It tookinto account the amount of nuclear materials, sites, domestic commitments, societal factorsand global norms.— “North Korea ranks last in the NTI Index, with its score unchanged compared to 2012,”

the Washington-based organization said. The NTI, however, pointed to a lack of credibleinformation on the secretive communist nation’s nuclear program.

Tickets for New Ski Resort in North Korea Cost 25 Euros: Report<Yonhap from SEOUL/ January 11, 2014>

— A day-pass ticket for a lavish recently-opened ski resort in North Korea costs 25 euros(US$34), a media report revealed on Jan. 11.— Young Pioneer Tours, a tourism agency specializing in North Korea, said the price

includes entrance fees, lift rides, and rental of equipment, according to the report by theWashington-based Radio Free Asia (RFA).— A half-day ticket is priced at 15 euros, while accommodation at the resort costs 120-200

euros, the report said. RFA said that the ski resort is anticipated to attract some 5,000 dailyvisitors when it commences full-scale operations, adding that North Korea will rake in some$60 million annually from the project.— The Masik Pass ski resort near the North’s east coast city of Wonsan was built on the

personal initiative of Kim Jong-un, who is believed to have enjoyed skiing in the Alps whilestudying in Switzerland in the 1990s. North Korea opened the resort ahead of the New Year.


60

PEOPLE & CHRONOLOGICAL REVIEW

PEOPLE

Kim Jong-un (김정은) : Supreme Commander of the (North) Korean People’s Army (KPA), First Secretary of the Workers’ Party of (North) Korea (WPK), First Chairman of theNational Defense Commission (NDC)

Dec. 16 gives field guidance to the August 25 Fisheries Station under KPA 313 Unit.24 visits the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, where the embalmed bodies of

Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il lie in state, together with commanding officers of theKPA.

25 visits the Command of Large Combined Unit 526 of the KPA to congratulate its servicepersonnel.

26 receives a New Year’s card from Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CentralCommittee of the Communist Party of China and president of the People’s Republic ofChina.

27 commends the officials, captains and fishermen in fisheries of the KPA who have dis-tinguished themselves in making big fish hauls by devotedly carrying out the orderissued by the WPK.

27 has a photo session with activists in the fisheries of the KPA outside the building ofthe WPK Central Committee.

28 watches a kyoksul (Korean martial art) training conducted by service personnel ofKPA Unit 3168 and KPA Unit 695, together with the participants in the meeting offrontline soldiers of the KPA.

31 visits the Ski Resort on Masik Pass.31 sends a congratulatory message to Cuban President Raul Castro Ruz on the occasion

of the 55th anniversary of the victory of the Cuban revolution.Jan. 1 delivers the New Year’s address calling for improved ties with South Korea while

vowing to strengthen his military in the new year.1 visits the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun to pay tribute to Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il,

together with his wife Ri Sol-ju, on the occasion of New Year’s Day.7 visits the Aquatic Products Refrigerating Facilities newly built by KPA Unit 534.8 watches a basketball game played by the American team of ex-NBA stars and North

Korean players of the Hwaebul team at Pyongyang Indoor Stadium.12 inspects the command of the KPA Unit 534 to encourage the officers and soldiers of

the unit.15 gives field guidance to the State Academy of Sciences.

Kim Yong-nam (김 남) : President of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA)Dec. 20 meets with the delegation of Koreans in at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in

Pyongyang.31 sends a message of sympathy to Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin over

terrorist acts in Volgograd of the Russian Federation that claimed huge casualties.


61

Pak Pong-ju (박봉주) : Premier Dec. 24 meets with Oleg Shishov, the director general of the “Mostovik” Scientific-Industrial

Company of Russia, who paid a courtesy call on him at the Mansudae Assembly Hall.28 makes a field survey of the construction of dwelling houses in the Ryongsong-Sopho area.

Jan. 6 carries out a field survey of the construction sites of the cascade power stations alongthe River Chongchon.

6 makes a field survey of the construction sites of the cascade power stations along theRiver Chongchon.

Choe Ryong-hae (최룡해) : Director of the KPA General Political BureauDec. 22 visits lodgings of the participants in the Meeting of Activists in Fisheries of the KPA,

along with Ri Yong-gil and Jang Jong-nam.Jan. 15 makes a field survey of the construction of a dormitory of the Kim Jong-suk

Pyongyang Textile Mill.

Kim Kuk-thae (김국태) : Member of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee, Deputyto the SPA, Chairman of the Control Commission of the WPK Central Committee

Dec. 16 A state funeral service for Kim Kuk-thae was held. He dies of an acute heart failureand dyspnoea on Dec. 13 at the age of 89,

CHRONOLOGICAL REVIEW

(Local Events)Dec. 16 Service personnel of the KPA hold a meeting at the square of the Kumsusan Palace of

the Sun in Pyongyang to vow loyalty to Kim Jong-un and protect him at the cost oftheir lives.

17 A national memorial service is held solemnly in Pyongyang on the second anniversaryof demise of leader Kim Jong-il with the attendance of Kim Jong-un.

20 Meetings take place at ministries, national institutions, industrial establishments, co-opfarms, universities and colleges across the country to adopt letters fully supporting thedecision at the enlarged meeting of the Political Bureau of the WPK CentralCommittee and pledging loyalty for Kim Jong-un.

21 A meeting takes place to mark the 40th anniversary of the establishment of theChemical Construction Complex.

21 A national exhibition of landscape paintings, embroideries and handicrafts opens atthe Pyongyang International House of Culture to celebrate the 96th birth anniversaryof Kim Jong-suk.

22 The statues of President Kim Il-sung and leader Kim Jong-il are erected in WonsanCity, Kangwon Province, on the occasion of the 22nd anniversary of Kim Jong-il’sassumption of the supreme commandership of the KPA.



62


Dec. 24 A KPA Song and Dance Ensemble gives a performance entitled “General Is Banner ofEternal Victory” at the April 25 House of Culture in Pyongyang to celebrate the 22ndanniversary of Kim Jong-il’s assumption of supreme commandership of the KPA.

24 Participants in the Meeting of Activists in Fisheries of the KPA visit the KumsusanPalace of the Sun to pay tribute to Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il.

27 The KCNA says the SPA Presidium on Dec. 20 promulgated a decree on awardingstate commendations to officials, captains, fishermen and soldiers who greatly con-tributed to making big fish hauls.

28 The KCNA says service personnel, working people and youth and students plantedmore than 72,000 rare trees and flower shrubs of over 110 species in the arboretum ofthe Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, where the embalmed bodies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il lie in state, in 2013.

28 The WPK Central Military Commission hosts a banquet for the participants in themeeting of activists in fisheries of the KPA at Okryu Restaurant in Pyongyang.

29 A national meeting takes place at the April 25 House of Culture in Pyongyang to markthe second anniversary of Marshal Kim Jong-un’s assumption of supreme commander-ship of the KPA.

31 The Masik Pass Ski Resort opens with due ceremony.Jan. 4 The North’s State Stamp Bureau issues a new stamp to celebrate the New Year.

4 The service personnel of the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces vow in a meetingat the April 25 House of Culture in Pyongyang to thoroughly implement the tasks setforth by Kim Jong-un in his New Year Address.

5 A meeting to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Pukchang Area Coal-MiningComplex in South Phyongan Province takes place with the attendance of Mun Myong-hak, minister of coal industry.

6 A Pyongyang city rally takes place at Kim Il-sung Square to carry out the tasks KimJong-un set forth in his New Year Address.

6 Blastings of 70,000 and 30,000 cubic meters of earth take place in the project toreclaim Honggondo tideland in North Phyongan Province.

7 The KCNA says meetings took place in North Phyongan, South and North Hwanghae,Jagang and Ryanggang provinces on Jan. 6 and 7 to carry out the important tasks KimJong-un set forth in his New Year Address.

7 Young people, agricultural workers and members of the Union of AgriculturalWorkers of (North) Korea hold meetings to vow to thoroughly implement the impor-tant tasks set forth in the New Year Address made by Kim Jong-un.

7 The KCNA says the Hamhung Waterpark in Hamhung City, South HamgyongProvince, has become operational.

7 The KCNA announces the list of 10 best players and 10 best coaches of the DPRK for2013.

7 The SPA Presidium decides to hold an election of deputies for the 13th SPA on March9, 2014, according to Article 90 of the Socialist Constitution of the DPRK.

9 Mass rallies in Kangwon Province and Nampho City vow to thoroughly carry out the


63

important tasks laid out by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the New YearAddress.

Jan. 9 Workers and members of the General Federation of Trade Unions of (North) Koreaand officials and members of the Democratic Women’s Union of (North) Korea holdmeetings to carry through the important tasks set forth by Kim Jong-un in his NewYear Address.

10 The KCNA says a gravity-fed drinking water service was established in Wonsan City,Kangwon Province.

10 The KCNA says employees of ministries and national institutions completed the firstFriday labor this year on Jan. 10.

12 The SPA Presidium decides to organize the central election committee for the electionof deputies to the 13th SPA headed by Yang Hyong-sop, the vice president of the SPAPresidium.

14 The KCNA says the People’s Palace of Culture in Pyongyang marked its 40th anniver-sary.

14 The KCNA says the Worker-Peasant Red Guards (WPRG), a powerful militia of theWPK, marked its 55th anniversary.

15 A symposium in the field of social sciences is held on the occasion of the 570thanniversary of Hunminjongum (Korean alphabet) to preserve and glorify the advan-tages of the national language.

(Foreign Events)Dec. 19 The fourth round of the meeting of the North-South joint committee for the Kaesong

Industrial Zone (KIZ) takes place at the factory complex.19 Dennis Rodman, former NBA star, arrives in Pyongyang for his third visit to North

Korea this year.19 Women of foreign embassies and missions of international bodies in Pyongyang visit

Okryu Children’s Hospital in Pyongyang on the occasion of the 96th birth anniversaryof Kim Jong-suk, grandmother of leader Kim Jong-un.

20 Round-table talks with the inhabitants who returned to the DPRK from South Koreatook place at the Koryo Hall of Compatriots in Pyongyang.

23 Oleg Shishov, director general of the “Mostovik” Scientific-Industrial Company ofRussia, and his party arrive in Pyongyang.

23 Dennis Rodman departs Pyongyang after a five-day visit to North Korea. 25 The Secretariat of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of (North) Korea

(CPRK) issues an open questionnaire claiming that South Korea’s Park Geun-hye gov-ernment should choose between trust and confrontation with North Korea.

29 A meeting of foreign crewmen takes place in Wonsan Port to mark the secondanniversary of Kim Jong-un’s assumption of supreme commandership of the KPA.

30 The KCNA says North Korea awarded a doctorate of philosophy to Kim Un-song andJo Hong-hui and a doctorate of economics to Hwang Kum-hae, all of whom areteachers at Yanbian University of China.



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VANTAGE POINT

Jan. 4 Kim Hyok-chol is appointed as the DPRK (North Korea) ambassador to Spain accord-ing to a decree of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA).

5 A spokesman for the CPRK slams South Korea over a recent military drill, questioningwhether Seoul is willing to accept an olive branch offered by Pyongyang at the startof the year.

6 Women of the Cuban embassy visit the Pyongyang Maternity Hospital on the occasionof the 55th anniversary of the Cuban revolution.

9 The CPRK sends a notice to the Ministry of Unification of South Korea, which recalledthat all Koreans at home and abroad are becoming more vocal calling for theimprovement of the inter-Korean relations.

11 The students’ committee of Kim Chaek University of Technology sends a letter to thestudents of South Korea in response to their widespread wallpaper campaign.

12 The DPRK soccer team defeats Yemen 3-1 in the first match of the First Asian U-22Football Championship held in Musqat, Oman.

13 Dennis Rodman departs Pyongyang after a eight-day visit to North Korea. 13 Kanji Inoki, member of the House of Councillors of Japan, arrives in Pyongyang by

air.15 Kim Yong-il, secretary of the WPK Central Committee who is advisor to the DPRK-

Japan Friendship Association, meets with Kanji Inoki, member of the House ofCouncillors of Japan and chief director of the Sports Peace Community Association.

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