valuing agility: a demand-led approach to capability ......providing better servicing of ccirs (tuav...

Valuing Agility: A Demand-Led Approach

to Capability ManagementPhilip Boxer

30th September 2009

Senior Member of Technical Staff Software Engineering InstituteCarnegie Mellon UniversityPittsburgh, PA 15213-2612

Copyright © Philip Boxer 2009 1

SEI Work on Ultra-Large-Scale Systems

Some Characteristics of ULS systems:

• Decentralization

• Continuous evolution and deployment

• Heterogeneous, inconsistent, and changing elements

• Erosion of the people/system boundary

• New paradigms for acquisition and policy

SEI Research :

• Computational Mechanism Design

• Architecture in ULS system context

• Assurance in ULS systems

• Distributed governance in dynamic contexts

ULS Challenges:• We need to think ‘socio-technical

ecosystems’ -

includes people, organizations, and technologies at all scales with significant and competing interdependencies.


Analyzing end-to-end sensor and data fusion processes (e.g. Multi-Sensor Integration)

‘Small-scale’ Analysis establishing operational performance of software-reliant systems and sensors

Identifying the interoperability risks across multiple parts of the SoS (e.g. AWACS modernisation)

‘Medium-scale’ Analysis fitting together multiple stakeholders’ perspectives on how particular systems of systems support demand

Thinking ‘socio-technical ecosystems’:The modeling and analysis needs to be done across the different scales

Establishing alternative economics of delivering force cohesion ‘at the edge’ (e.g. through the use of Tactical UAVs)

‘Large-scale’ Analysis ‘multi-sided’ analysis of the deployed force relationship to demand

The challenge is consistency

across different scales

The challenge is consistency

across different

scales

The challenge is alignment across the different

scales


Outline

Introduction

1. Defining Agility

2. Maximising Value for Defence

3. Cohesion-based costing as key

Conclusion


Through-Life Capability Management: the example of Tactical UAV

Phoenix and Watchkeeper UAVs were conceived as extensions to existing concepts of operation:

• Phoenix provided better target acquisition (TUAV I)

• Watchkeeper provided better servicing of a Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (TUAV II)

For TUAVs I & II, the focus was on the capabilities of the system itself.

The close coupling of Hermes 450 UAS capability to fighters on the ground reflected an increased campaign tempo, and

• The need for much greater tactical agility (TUAV III)

For TUAV III, the focus shifted to the variety of demands on the way the system can be used.


The demand for Agility: managing three diverging tempos

Defence Enterprise

Adapted from: Appropriate Collaboration and Appropriate Competition in C4ISTAR Transformation, Dr Nicholas Whittall RUSI 2007

Alignment Tempo

Operational Capability



Orchestration

Agility means always being able to align composite capabilities to demand at campaign tempo

Agility means being able to align composite capabilities to demand at campaign tempo

Divergence of tempos increases costs of alignment

Divergence of tempos increases costs of alignment

Gap = NeedAcquisition

Requirement

TrainingEquipmentPersonnel

InfrastructureDoctrine/Concepts

OrganizationInformation

Logistics

Suppliers


Acquisition Tempo

Effect

Demand/ ThreatCampaign

(Demand) Tempo

Composite Capability


19

80

19

82

19

84

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86

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90

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92

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98

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00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

Re

lati

ve C

ost

Cumulative Costs

in-service costs

Support costs

Planned equipment costs

Cost to suppliers

IPT costs

The through-life costs of TUAV I & II capability

TUAV III UOR expenditure:

TUAV I IPT

TUAV II IPT

Cumulative Cost

The costs of modernization

in-service costssupport costsplanned equipment costscost to suppliersIPT costs

• The TUAV III UOR costs were of the same order as the planned equipment costs

Through-life timeframe 1980-

2030


1. Agility means always being able to meet campaign tempo

2. Maximising Value for Defence



demand-side operational space

supply-side acquisition space

The Engineering ‘V’ and the Alignment ‘’

Boxer, P.J. (2007) Managing the SoS Value Cycle, January 2007, http://www.asymmetricdesign.com/archives/85

Effects on Demand/ Threat

Orchestration of Composite Capabilities

Synchronization by Mission Command

Force Structures

Strategic Scenarios

Solution

System components

System integration

Operational Capabilities

Capability gaps

Design decomposition

Requirement

Demand/ Threat Tempo

Alignment Tempo

Acquisition Tempo

The variety of compositions is as

important as the most stressing use for a

particular capability


Supply-side activities supporting Demand-side Cohesion: focusing on the cost of the delivered service

Demands on the

Defence EnterpriseSuppliers

Supplier 1

Supplier 2

Client Defence Enterprise

operational

capability

operational

capabilityo

rch

estr

atio

n

synchronization

Defence Enterprise

Cohesion-based Costs

Acquisition Tempo

Alignment Tempo

Demand/ Threat Tempo

Activity-based Costs

Costs of Alignment

Increasing variety of compositions is a

key driver


The relationship between Agility and Value for Defence: Value for Defence is maximised when agility is delivered at minimum cohesion cost

Equipment & other

DLODs

Cohesion-based Costs

Activity-based Costs

Costs of Alignment

Varieties of Demand

Effects

Treasury

Expenditures PSA

Defence

Enterprise



2. Value for Defence is maximised when this agility is delivered at minimum cost



Providing better target acquisition (TUAV I)• Each line represents a relationship that generates cost

Command and Operational Capability

Modeling across the different scales: Understanding the alignment processes

Prime Contractor’s Supply Chain

Forces Organisation

Procurement Authorities


Orchestration in relation to Demand/Threat Context


Providing better servicing of CCIRs (TUAV II)• A more complex system focused on its wider integration

WatchkeeperSystem


Command and Operational Capability





Forces Organisation

Orchestration in relation to Demand/Threat Context


individual in

afghan-

pakistan

border

individual in

kabul city

centre blue

zone

terrorist

escape in

small boat off

ni west coast

drug runners in

columbia with

target of value

occasional

shoot-n-scoot

teams in tribal

areas

stinger

missiles in

baghdad city

centre

interdict

ion of

fleeting

target

counter-insurgency domain

disrupting

command

reducing

negative

political

influence

threat

deterrence

prevention

of tactics

Threat Situations

kabul

tuav

h450

border

male

reaper

border

hale

global

hawk

border

hale

global

hawk

kabul

tuav

h450

border

male

reaper

kabul

tuav

h450

border

hale

global

hawk

border

male

reaper

border

hale

global

hawk

border

hale

outputs

border

male

outputs

border

male

reaper

kabul

tuav

outputskabul

tuav

h450

isaf h

q

bord

er is

r ce

ll

bord

er h

ale

bm

bord

er

hale

glob

al

haw

k

border

hale on

station

border

hale

tasking

border

hale

caoc

ato

border

sf

border

male

on

station

bord

er re

ape

r

strik

e c

ell

bord

er m

ale

bm

border

male

tasking

border

sf

bo

rder s

f ce

ll

border

sf

tasking

afghan

report

afghan border

strike

border

intellig

ence

cell

border

intellige

nce cell

border

intel

report

bord

er

male

oper

ator

bord

er sf

border

male

strike

bord

er

male

strik

e

ka

bu

l tua

v

strik

e c

ell

ka

bu

l tua

v

bm

kabul sf

strike

tasking

kabul

sf

strike

HUMINT would be providing

the equivalent of the HALE

input to the Kabul process

coa

stg

uard

nimrod

fast

patrol

craft

sea

king

nimrod

nimrod

on

station

nimrod

tuav

sea

ma

ritime c

ell

flee

t hq

ship

sea

king

sea

king on

station

tuav

sea

tuav

sea on

station

fast

patrol

boat

interce

ption

and

arrest

ship

arrest sync

uk g

ov

Like afghanistan… tuav

allows us to put video link to

coastguard to deal with

numbers… and provide

positive id, and also

PERSISTENCE

sp

ecia

l

bra

nch

Originating intelligence

Otical id substitutes for uav

optics… comms goes back

via their hq

NB role of AIS to screen stuff

tuav

sea

clo

se a

ir

pa

trol

Air traffic order is tasking

Air traffic control is

synchronisation

torn

ad

o

tornad

o

bunker

strike

torn

ado

Sf will bring the tornado in

Put the strike back in so that

we can trade immediate

strike against the team vs

take the bunker out

border

caoc

border

caoc

bord

er c

aoc

border caoc

atc sync

individual in

afghan-

pakistan

border

bord

er

hale

glob

al

haw

k

border

male

caoc

ato

kabul

humint

kabul

humint

ka

bu

l hum

int

cell

humint

kabul

report

kabul

sf

tasking

Afghanistan

isa

f hq

kabul sf

kabul

sf

kab

ul s

f cell

kabul sf

tasking

sf

kabul

report

kabu

l sf

bord

er

inte

lligen

ce

ce

ll

intellig

ence

cell

kabul

intellige

nce cell

kabul

intel

report

inte

llige

nce

cell

kabul

caoc

kabul

caoc

tuav

atokabul

tuav

tasking

kabul

humint

kabul

humint

kabul

humint

tasking

border

sf

border

sf

kabul sf

kabul

sf

kabu

l sf

kabul strike

kabul caoc atc

sync

Kabul

terrorist

escape in

small boat off

ni west coast

baghd

ad

tuav

h450

baghda

d tuav

h450

baghd

ad

tuav

h450

baghda

d tuav

outputs

baghda

d tuav

h450

bag

hd

ad

tuav

strik

e c

ell

bag

hd

ad

tuav

bm

baghda

d

humint

strike

tasking

baghda

d

humint

strike

baghda

d

humint

tasking

iraq h

q

baghda

d

humint

baghd

ad

humint

bag

hd

ad

hum

int c

ell

baghda

d

humint

tasking

bagdha

d

report

bag

hda

d

humi

nt

baghd

ad

intellig

ence

cell

baghda

d

intellige

nce cell

baghda

d intel

report

bag

hd

ad

inte

lligen

ce

ce

ll

baghda

d caoc

baghda

d caoc

tuav

atobaghda

d tuav

tasking

baghda

d

humint

baghd

ad

humint

bag

hda

d

humi

nt

baghdad strike

baghdad caoc

atc sync

baghdad

stinger

missiles in

baghdad city

centre

fast

patr

ol

craft

arre

st c

ell

arrest

special

branch

special

branch

cell special

branch

intel

coastgu

ard

tasking

ship

tasking

nimrodnimrod

locatin

g

arre

st

cell

arrest

cell

arrest

cell

nimr

od

nimrod

tasking

sea

king

sea

king

sea

king

locatin

g

sea

king

tuav

sea

tuav

sea

tuav

sea

locatin

g

Terrorist arrest

tribal

male

reaper

tribal

hale

global

hawk

tribal

hale

global

hawk

tribal

male

reaper

tribal

hale

global

hawk

tribal

male

reaper

tribal

hale

global

hawk

hale

tribal

outputs

male

tribal

outputs

tribal

male

reaper

isa

f hq

triba

l isr c

ell

triba

l hale

bm

tribal

hale

glob

al

haw

k

hale on

tribal

station

hale

tribal

tasking

hale

tribal

caoc

ato

tribal sf

male

on

tribal

station

triba

l reap

er

strik

e c

ell

triba

l ma

le

bm

male

tribal

tasking

tribal sf

tribal s

f cell

sf tribal

tasking

tribal

report

tribal reaper

strike

tribal

intellig

ence

cell

tribal

intellige

nce cell

intel

tribal

report

tribal

male

oper

ator

tribal

sf

male

tribal

strike

tribal

male

strik

e

tribal

caoc

tribal

caoc

triba

l cao

c

tribal caoc atc

sync

tribal

hale

glob

al

haw

k

male

tribal

caoc

ato

Tribal Lands

triba

l

inte

llige

nce

cell

tribal sf

tribal sf

occasional

shoot-n-scoot

teams in tribal

areas

tribal sf bunker

strike

bomb

on

targetcaoc

tribal

tornado

ato

caoc

tornado

tribal

tasking

border

sf on

station

kabu

l

humi

nt

kabul

humint

on

station

kabul

sf on

station

tribal sf

on

station

baghda

da

humint

on

station

kabul

caoc

kab

ul c

aoc

baghd

ad

caoc

bag

hd

ad

ca

oc

uk g

ov

uk g

ov

uk g

ov

uk g

ov

Baghdad

Tribal lands

Kabul

Sea

Afghan border


Much greater tactical agility across a variety of orchestrations (TUAV III)• Decisive points dependent on the interdiction of fleeting targets

Tribal lands

Kabul

Sea

Baghdad

Afghan border

Demand across a necessary variety of

orchestrations


Analysis across the different scales: Cohesion-based costing

The ability to analyse across different scales offers two useful outputs:• The cohesion costs of any particular decisive point in a campaign• The range of possible costs across a variety of decisive points across a range of campaigns

Modeling Alignment Processes

Modeling the variety of orchestrations

Analyzing alignment to demand

Analysing the relationships between the different layers of alignment

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Costing Cohesion of Mission Capabilities

Generating cohesion costing templates


Pricing Agility: valuing the impact of greater TUAV flexibility

Baseline average cohesion cost of the capability

b

~25% saving from using a more flexible TUAV capability

~25% saving from the more flexible TUAV

capability

Equipment & other

DLODs

Varieties of Demand

Effects

Defence

Enterprise

~12.5% saving from the reduction in range


a

Probability

Level of defence expenditure on Concurrent Campaigns

The range of possible

expenditures across concurrent

campaigns


What should the supplier be paid? Determining the maximum price

The analysis of cohesion costs delivers:• A baseline range of costs of delivering this variety of decisive points

• A lower average cost and a narrower range of costs of delivering this same variety with more flexible TUAV capability

Probability

Level of defence expenditure on Concurrent Campaigns

a

b

~25% saving from using a more flexible TUAV capability


The price should reflect the impact on both the average and the range




3. Cohesion-based costing is key in maximising Value for Defence


To conclude

A demand-side perspective uncovers three tempos, which show• The supply-side shift in focus from equipment to capability, and

• The need for a further shift adding a demand-side focus on agility

Agility is defined as the ability to meet campaign tempo• This adds timeliness to the efficiency and effectiveness of capabilities

All forms of agility may not be affordable, so that some means of costing the variety of demands is required

• Cohesion-based costing provides a means.

Gap = NeedAcquisition

Requirement Defence Enterprise

Alignment

Tempo

Operational

Capability

Operational

Capability

Operational

CapabilityOrchestration

Training

EquipmentPersonnel

Infrastructure

Doctrine/ConceptsOrganization

InformationLogistics

Suppliers

Operational

Capability

Acquisition

Tempo

Effect

Demand/

ThreatCampaign

(Demand)

Tempo

Composite

Capability




3. Cohesion-based costing is key to maximising Value for Defence


valuing agility: a demand-led approach to capability ......providing better servicing of ccirs (tuav...

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