valuation of the health and climate-change benefits of ... · bene ts of healthy diets, background...
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Valuation of the health and climate-changebenefits of healthy diets
Marco SpringmannOxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food
Nuffield Department of Population HealthUniversity of Oxford
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Health impacts of the food system
Current diets are not healthy:
Dietary risks are leading risk factors globally and in mostregions (GBD, 2013):
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Health impacts of the food system
Global prevalence of overweight increased over a third, andobesity rates doubled over last 30 years (Stevens et al, 2012).
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Environmental impacts of the food system
The current food system is environmentally unsustainable:
major driver of climate change (25% of GHG emissions,Vermeulen et al, 2012);
major driver of land-use change and biodiversity loss (40% ofthe Earth’s surface, Ramankutty et al, 2008; Houghton et al,2012);
major user of freshwater resources (70% of global freshwaterwithdrawals (WWAP, 2012);
major polluter of terrestrial and aquatic systems throughfertilizer runoff (Vitousek et al, 1997) (→ dead zones incoastal oceans, Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008)
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Environmental impacts of the food system
Key environmental limits could be exceeded without ambitiousfood-system changes:
Springmann et al, Nature 2018
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Economic costs of current food systems
Cost factors
Unhealthy diets:
healthcare-related costslost workloss of quality of life
Unsustainable diets:
climate-change costsenvironmental degradationloss of ecosystems
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Valuation of costs of dietary change
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Research objective
This study:
Valuation of the health and climate-change benefits of dietarychanges towards healthier and more sustainable diets
Methods:1 Diet analysis:
Standardised set of healthy and sustainable diet scenariosadapted from EAT-Lancet Commission (new)
2 Health analysis:
Comparative risk assessment of changes in mortality fromchanges in dietary and weight-related risk factors (updated);
3 Environmental analysis:
Life-cycle analysis of food consumption based on a recentmeta-analysis (updated);
4 Economic valuation:
Social cost of carbon (updated), cost-of-illness estimates
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Diet scenarios
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Health analysis (for 2030)
14 million avoidable deaths in 2030 (22% of all deathsamongst adults)
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Healthcare costs
USD 1.3 trillion in 2030 (7% of global healthcare expenditure)
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Healthcare costs
Regional distribution in line with level of health-care spendingand population levels
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Healthcare costs
Large savings for healthier and more sustainable diets
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Emissions analysis (for 2030)
8.1 GtCO2-eq in 2030 (13% of total emissions)
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Climate-change costs
USD 1.7 trillion in 2030; possible reduction of 50-76%
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Comparison to cost of diets
Costs of healthcare and climate change represent 22-28% ofwholesale costs of diets in 2030
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Comparison to cost of diets
Including health and climate-change costs reduces relativecosts of healthy and sustainable diets
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Discussion
Policy implications:
Full costing of foods and diets can provide financial incentivefor dietary change towards healthy and sustainable diets
Commodity-specific health and environmental taxes can helpaccount for external costs (see Springmann et al, NatureClimate Change 2017, Plos One 2018)
Additional policy measures might be needed to supportuptake of healthy and sustainable diets:
Reform of national dietary guidelines (see Springmann et al,The BMJ 2020)School and workplace approaches, procurement, regulation ofthe food sectorAgricultural incentives, change in subsidies (Freund andSpringmann, in preparation)
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Bibliography
Springmann, 2020, Valuation of the health and climate-changebenefits of healthy diets, Background paper for SOFI 2020
Springmann et al, 2016, Analysis and valuation of the healthand environmental co-benefits of dietary change, PNAS.
Springmann et al, 2017, Mitigation potential and globalhealth impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities,Nature Climate Change.
Springmann et al, 2018, Health-motivated taxes on red andprocessed meat: a modelling study on optimal tax levels andassociated health impacts, Plos One.
Springmann et al, 2020, The healthiness and sustainability ofnational dietary guidelines, The BMJ.
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Thank you
Contact, comments and suggestions:
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Supplementary Slides
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Dietary guidelines
Health and environmental analysis of
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Operationalizing planetary boundaries
Relationship of planetary boundaries and policy goals (SDGs):
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Dietary guidelines
Number of global health and environmental targets attained:
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Dietary guidelines
Target attainment by region:
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Dietary guidelines
Health implications:
Springmann et al, The BMJ 2020
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Dietary guidelines
Implications:
Dietary guidelines inform national policies (healthprogrammes, procurement, etc).
Many dietary guidelines are not sustainable when adoptedglobally (and could also be healthier).
Reason is lack of limits for animal products.
Updating guidelines in light of sustainability concerns isessential first step for progressive food-policy reforms.
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Fiscal incentives
Adjust food prices for climate damages(Springmann et al, 2017, Nature Climate Change):
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Design of emissions taxes on foods
Model scenarios:
TAX : GHG taxes on all food commodities
TAXadj : Tax exemptions for health-critical food groups in devcountries (fruits&veg and staples)
TAXani : GHG taxes only on animal products (meat, dairy,eggs)
TAXrem: GHG taxes only on red meat (beef, lamb, pork)
TAXbef : GHG taxes only on beef
Income-compensated variants (r )
Variants in which half of tax revenues are used to subsidizefruits&veg (s)
⇒ 15 different tax scenarios
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Optimal tax scenario
Health-sensitive taxing scheme
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Optimal tax scenarios
Health-maximising tax scenario for each region:
Optimization across all 15 tax scenarios:
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Fiscal incentives
Adjust food prices for health costs(Springmann et al, 2018, PLOS One):
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Health taxes on red meat
Prices changes needed to pay for health care-related costs inequilibrium (red meat):
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Health taxes on processed meat
Prices changes needed to pay for health care-related costs inequilibrium (processed meat):
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Health taxes on processed meat
Reductions in mortality attributed to red and processed meat:
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits
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Cost of diets
Changes in cost of diets with full pricing and by diet scenario:
(Springmann, SOFI 2020 Background Paper)
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Food prices
Implications:
Consumption decisions are influenced, in part, by food prices.
Current prices do not reflect the full health and environmentalcosts of diets and foods.
Pricing in food-system externalities (e.g. via taxes) can helpconsumers make healthier and more environmentally friendlychoices.
Tax revenues (and avoided healthcare costs and climatedamages) can be used to compensate low-income households.
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Agricultural incentives
Align agricultural subsidies with public health objectives tosupport food-system transformation:
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Agricultural subsidies
Agricultural support measures (USD million) in 2011:
Source: GTAP, OECD’s producer support estimates net of tariffs
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Agricultural subsidies
Change in production in the EU (%):
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Agricultural subsidies
Change in consumption of fruits and veg (%):
(Freund and Springmann, in preparation)
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Agricultural subsidies
Change in economic welfare:
(Freund and Springmann, in preparation)
Marco Springmann Health and climate-change benefits