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ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
VALUATION OF THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OF CARBON STORAGE/SEQUESTRATION IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL
Pavani, B.F.(1); Sousa Jr., W.C.(1); Inouye, C.E.N.(1);
Mello, A.Y.I.(2), Vieira, S.A.(2)
(1) Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica - ITA
(2) Universidade Estadual de Campinas - UNICAMP
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
The study area: pressures
Pressures from: - Pre-Salt; - Tourism; - Infrastructure.
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
The study area: pressures
Port of São Sebastião
Itamambuca Beach
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
OBJECTIVES: • To estimate the potential losses in the Atlantic Forest
area from the urban expansion related to pre-salt explotation and its associated infrastructure;
• To value the carbon storage and release in the last
decades; and • To value the carbon storage and release from the future
scenarios in order to advise local decision makers.
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
The study area: urban expansion
- Blue: Urban area 1990;
- Green: Expansion 1999;
- Red: Expansion 2010.
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
The study area: scenarios
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1990 1999 2010 2030
Urb
an a
rea
(ha)
Year
Enquadramento legal
status quo
novos empreendimentos
Status quo
New infrastructure
Law enforcement
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
The study area: scenarios
166000
168000
170000
172000
174000
176000
178000
1990 1999 2010 2030
Veg
eta
tio
n (
ha)
Years
Enquadramento legal
status quo
novos empreendimentosNew infrastructure
Status quo
Law enforcement
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Methodology
• InVEST - Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs. Release 2.3.0.
• Carbon Storage and Sequestration Module
• Input: LUCC scenarios
• Local carbon storage estimates
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
• Aboveground biomass
• Dead organic matter
• Belowground biomass
• Soil
Carbon pools: vegetation
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Source: Vieira (2012)
Carbon stocks (Mg/ha)
LULC classC (live
aboveground)
C (live
belowground)
C (dead
belowground)
C (dead
aboveground)
Secondary vegetation 10 7 76 3
Agriculture 5 3 15 0
Atlantic rainforest 200 130 130 65
Lake 0 0 0 0
Mangrove 10 5 20 0
Mining areas 0 0 0 0
Pasture 5 4 25 1
Sandbanks 8 8 25 3
Forestry 10 3 80 1
Urban areas 0 0 0 0
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Stock of carbon in
1990:
44.158.400 Mg
Stock of carbon in
2010:
43.808.300 Mg
Release of carbon
350.105 Mg
Results: last decades
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Results: 2030
Scenarios C stored (Mg) C released (Mg)
Status quo 66.192.800 860.927
Law enforcement 66.831.000 222.721
New infrastructure 65.411.400 1.642.350
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Valuation Carbon Market – REDD
12 US$/tCO2e
InVEST (tCO2 tC)
44 US$/tC
Discount rate (financial market, Brazil)
10%/year
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Results: 2030
Scenarios C value (US$)
Status quo -17.737.500
Law enforcement -4.588.680
New infrastructure -33.837.000
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Results: 2030 Law enforcement New infrastructure
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Conclusions • Development of the Northern Coast of São Paulo,
supported by the extensive use of natural resources for economic growth and urban expansion pressures the Atlantic Forest in the entire coastal region.
• These changes in LULC have conducted to a reduction of
carbon stocks of more than 300.000 tons in the last
two decades.
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
• However, it points to the economic value of
approximately 1.9 billion dollars for carbon still
stored in the landscapes of the region, reinforcing the reasons of conservation and preservation of the rainforest;
• To the future, a “law enforcement” scenario could save almost US$30 billions in terms of carbon releases.
Conclusions
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
• To detail the carbon stocks in terms of altitude (it is expected that higher levels forests have different carbon storage capacity than those located in lower areas);
• To create a comprehensive spatial framework putting together carbon storage, infrastructure and institutional/legal tools, to help the decision making process.
Next steps
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
• Comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure projects (for instance: Belo Monte Dam, Tapajós Dams, and other hydropower projects on Amazon), including (as costs) the losses of some ecosystem services;
• Empirical models to explain the relationship between the human activities and some water related ecosystem services and modeling the ecosystem services payment;
• Spatial dynamic models in combination with ecological models to get a more efficient way to analyze and communicate the results.
What else we are doing
ACES & Ecosystem Markets 2012 – Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
Sponsored by The Brazilian Government
www.redelitoral.ita.br [email protected]
Conducted by Partnership