validation of high resolution precipitation products in the south of brazil with a dense gauge...

VALIDATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION VALIDATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS IN THE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS IN THE SOUTH OF BRAZIL WITH A DENSE SOUTH OF BRAZIL WITH A DENSE GAUGE NETWORK AND WEATHER GAUGE NETWORK AND WEATHER RADARS – FIRST RESULTSRADARS – FIRST RESULTS

Cesar Beneti, Leonardo Calvetti, Ieda Pscheidt, Itamar MoreiraCesar Beneti, Leonardo Calvetti, Ieda Pscheidt, Itamar MoreiraParana State Meteorological Service - SIMEPARParana State Meteorological Service - SIMEPAR

Curitiba, BrazilCuritiba, Brazil

Augusto J. Pereira FilhoAugusto J. Pereira FilhoDepartment of Atmospheric SciencesDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences

University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniversity of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

33rdrd Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006 Workshop of the International Precipitation Working Group Melbourne – October 2006

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

- Integrate rain gauge, radar and satellite data to improve QPE- Integrate rain gauge, radar and satellite data to improve QPE

- Assimilate QPEs into operational NWP model - Assimilate QPEs into operational NWP model

- Use NWP QPF for hydrological forecasting - Use NWP QPF for hydrological forecasting

- Verify QPE, QPF - Verify QPE, QPF

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Quantitative Precipitation Estimation

and Forecasting Groupand Forecasting Group

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Quantitative Precipitation Estimation

and Forecasting Groupand Forecasting Group


SATELLITE ESTIMATES:- Period: Jan/2002 – Mar/2006

- Area: LAT = 22S to 27SLON = 56W to 46W

- Resolution: 0.25deg- Accumulation: 3hour

- Techniques: CMORPH, NRLB,PERSIANN, TRMM3B42

Other Data:Raingauge, Radar


PEHRPP Evaluation AreaPEHRPP Evaluation AreaPEHRPP Evaluation AreaPEHRPP Evaluation Area

13

00

km

1700km

Itaipu

Power

Plant


Curitiba

SaoPaulo

Rio de Janeiro

Importance of the Area

More than 70% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

Major cities: Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba(> 80million people)

Hydropower Generation in Parana represents

30% Brazil 95% Paraguay

Electric Energy in Brazil is >85% Hydro-generation


(mm)



Precipitation in the area is related to MCS (spring/summer) and Frontal Systems (all year)

Convection initiates mostly in late afternoon, propagating eastward, with high rainfall accumulation – diurnal cycle well defined.


Hydromet information available in the area (approx. 200,000km²)

- S-Band Doppler Weather Radar, with scans every 5 minutes, 4km2 resolution;

- 62 Automatic hydrological stations (precipitation and river level measurements) with 15min. observations;

- 37 Automatic meteorological stations (precip. + T, Td, p, wind) with hourly observations;

- Satellite data processing system.

- New automatic stations to be installed in 2006-2008 – up to 140 points

- Conventional gauges, daily accumulation – over 50



Precipitation Distribution Spring 2004Precipitation Distribution Spring 2004Precipitation Distribution Spring 2004Precipitation Distribution Spring 2004

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIESPRECIPITATION ANOMALIES

CLIMATOLOGY (SON) CLIMATOLOGY (SON) mmmm


Precipitation Distribution Spring 2005Precipitation Distribution Spring 2005Precipitation Distribution Spring 2005Precipitation Distribution Spring 2005


CLIMATOLOGY (SON)CLIMATOLOGY (SON)mmmm


Precipitation Distribution Summer 2005Precipitation Distribution Summer 2005Precipitation Distribution Summer 2005Precipitation Distribution Summer 2005

mmmmCLIMATOLOGY (DJF)CLIMATOLOGY (DJF)


mmmm


CLIMATOLOGY (DJF)CLIMATOLOGY (DJF)


Precipitation Distribution Summer 2006Precipitation Distribution Summer 2006Precipitation Distribution Summer 2006Precipitation Distribution Summer 2006

Spatial Distrib. BIAS Spring (SON) Spatial Distrib. BIAS Spring (SON)


CMORPH NRLB

TRMM3B42PERSIANN

BIAS is for each grid point (.25deg x .25deg), total period:

BIAS = <Psat> - <Pgau>


CMORPH NRLB

TRMM3B42PERSIANN

Spatial Distrib. BIAS Spring (SON) Spatial Distrib. BIAS Spring (SON)


CMORPH NRLB

TRMM3B42PERSIANN

Spatial Distrib. BIAS Summer (DJF) Spatial Distrib. BIAS Summer (DJF)

Diurnal Variability of Precipitation Diurnal Variability of Precipitation Diurnal Variability of Precipitation Diurnal Variability of Precipitation


SPRING (SON) PCP > 0.1mm

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 0

TIME (UTC)

FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y (

%)

GAUGE CMORPH NRLB PERSIANN TRMM3B42

SUMMER (DJF) PCP > 0.1mm

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

TIME (UTC)

FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y (

%)

GAUGE CMORPH NRLB PERSIANN TRMM

Distribution is:

Number of events with precip larger than a threshold for each 3hour period

Even distribution for Spring; Diurnal cycle more evident in Summer; Differences for rain events with higher precip.



0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 0

TIME (UTC)

FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y (

%)



0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

TIME (UTC)

FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y (

%)




Distribution is:




0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 0

TIME (UTC)

FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y (

%)



0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

TIME (UTC)

FR

EQ

UE

NC

Y (

%)




Distribution is:


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-S

ep-0

5

6-S

ep-0

5

11-S

ep-0

5

16-S

ep-0

5

21-S

ep-0

5

26-S

ep-0

5

1-O

ct-0

5

6-O

ct-0

5

11-O

ct-0

5

16-O

ct-0

5

21-O

ct-0

5

26-O

ct-0

5

31-O

ct-0

5

5-N

ov-0

5

10-N

ov-0

5

15-N

ov-0

5

20-N

ov-0

5

25-N

ov-0

5

30-N

ov-0

5

Av

era

ge

Ra

infa

ll

(mm

)

GAUGE

CMORPH

NRLB

PERSIANN

TRMM

Average Rainfall Spring (SON) 2005Average Rainfall Spring (SON) 2005Average Rainfall Spring (SON) 2005Average Rainfall Spring (SON) 2005


PRECIPITATION MEAN STD BIAS RMSE CORREL

GAUGE 9,23 6,55

CMORPH 3,22 3,22 -6,00 11,11 0,69

NRLB 3,10 3,27 -6,12 11,91 0,54

PERSIANN 2,81 3,23 -6,42 11,97 0,65

TRMM 2,88 2,99 -6,35 11,68 0,64

Precipitation Event 11-Sep-2005Precipitation Event 11-Sep-2005Precipitation Event 11-Sep-2005Precipitation Event 11-Sep-2005


GAUGEGAUGE

TRMM3B42TRMM3B42

NRLBNRLBCMORPHCMORPH

PERSIANNPERSIANNRADARRADAR

Precipitation Event 25-Oct-2005Precipitation Event 25-Oct-2005Precipitation Event 25-Oct-2005Precipitation Event 25-Oct-2005


GAUGEGAUGE

TRMM3B42TRMM3B42

NRLBNRLBCMORPHCMORPH

PERSIANNPERSIANNRADARRADAR

Iguassu Basin Area (67446 km2)Iguassu Basin Area (67446 km2)

Evaluation Area Evaluation Area

(24167 km2)(24167 km2)

Precipitation in the Iguassu BasinPrecipitation in the Iguassu BasinPrecipitation in the Iguassu BasinPrecipitation in the Iguassu BasinSatellite precipitation estimations Satellite precipitation estimations

were compared with rain gauge and were compared with rain gauge and

river flow in a sub-basin of Iguassu river flow in a sub-basin of Iguassu

(area 2(area 24167 km4167 km²), upstream of the ²), upstream of the

first/largest reservoir, which is first/largest reservoir, which is

mainly responsible for regulating mainly responsible for regulating

the energy generation in the the energy generation in the

cascade.cascade.


15 rain gauges, with 15 rain gauges, with

river level and river level and

precipitation precipitation

measurements every measurements every

15minutes.15minutes.


Precipitation and StreamFlowPrecipitation and StreamFlowPrecipitation and StreamFlowPrecipitation and StreamFlow


0.39 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.36

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Pentad SPRING 2004

Str

ea

mfl

ow

(m3 s

-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

GAUGE CMORPH NRLB PERSIANN TRMM3B42 Streamflow

Correlation Coef. between streamflow and precipitation (12hours Correlation Coef. between streamflow and precipitation (12hours

lag)lag)


Precipitation and StreamFlowPrecipitation and StreamFlowPrecipitation and StreamFlowPrecipitation and StreamFlow

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Pentad SPRING 2005

Str

ea

mfl

ow

(m3s

-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

GAUGE CMORPH NRLB PERSIANN TRMM3B42 Streamflow


0.42 0.42 0.38 0.43 0.42

Correlation Coef. between streamflow and precipitation (12hours Correlation Coef. between streamflow and precipitation (12hours

lag)lag)

Monthly Precipitation Accumulation for Iguassu Basin

Monthly accumulation for October 2005


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000RADAR SATELLITE GAUGE300

250

200

150

100

50

Radar SatelliteGauge

Next Steps:Next Steps:

• More statistics, different periods (spatial, More statistics, different periods (spatial,

categorical)categorical);;

• Compare other satellite techniques (e.g. IR+MW) Compare other satellite techniques (e.g. IR+MW)

with Gauge+Radar (using Statistical Objective with Gauge+Radar (using Statistical Objective

Analysis) data in the same areaAnalysis) data in the same area

• Compare CPC/NCEP 1DD with Gauge+Radar+Sat Compare CPC/NCEP 1DD with Gauge+Radar+Sat

data in the area for different periods of the year.data in the area for different periods of the year.


validation of high resolution precipitation products in the south of brazil with a dense gauge...

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