UV IRRADIANCE CHANGES ACCORDING TO INM-RHMU CHEMICAL-CLIMATE MODEL, SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS, AND RE-ANALYSIS DATA OVER NORTHERN EURASIA FOR THE 1979-2015 PERIOD.

NATALIA CHUBAROVA(1), ANNA PASTUKHOVA(1), EKATERINA ZHDANOVA(1), ALEXEI POLIUKHOV(1), SERGEI

SMYSHLYAEV(2), VENER GALIN(3)

“UV Monitoring in the European Countries - Past, Present and Future” 12 - 14 September 2018, Vienna, Austria

1 - Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 119991, Lenin Hills, Moscow, Russia 2 - Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU), Maloohtinsky prospect, 98, Sankt-Petersburg, Russia 3- Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Science, Gubkin str., 8, Moscow, 119333, Russia

OUTLINE:

1. UV EFFECTS ON BIOSPHERE AND HUMAN HEALTH

2. DATA AND METHODS

3. RESULTS:

• Climatologies and Qery trends according to CCM model, ERA_INTERIM and satellite data.

• Qery trends verifications using long-term Moscow UV dataset

• Estimation of similarity in Qery trend areas location according to different datasets

• UV resources change from 1979 to 2015 in Eurasia.

4. CONCLUSIONS

Melanoma SC

NEGATIVE UV EFFECTS:

For the 1991-2012 period

the Skin Cancer rate is +1.6% per decade

in Russia

THE STATISTICS OF CANCER TUMORS IN RUSSIA AND THE CIS COUNTRIES In 2012, Eds. M.Davidov, E.Axcel., 2012

POSITIVE UV ACTION: VITAMIN D SYNTHESIS

Active form of vitamin D prevents: 1. ricket 2. osteoporosis and bone fractures 3. activation of immune effects 4. reduce the risk of internal cancers, multiple

sklerosis, etc.

CLASSIFICATION OF UV RESOURCES

Chubarova, Zhdanova, Photochemistry and Photobiology, 2013

UV RESOURCES EVALUATION THE ASSESSMENT SIMULTANEOUSLY BOTH

DETRIMENTAL AND POSITIVE HEALTH EFFECTS USING THE FOLLOWING THRESHOLDS.

SET

MEDMvitDDMEDvitD

vitDjj

_=

∫∫ ∫ ==MEDjjMED t

ery

t

eryj dtQdtdFQMED00

2

1

λλ

λλλ

Threshold for erythema – minimal

erythemal dose

Threshold for vitamin D- minimum vitamin D

dose

Chubarova, Zhdanova, Photochemistry and Photobiology, 2013

where S - is open body fraction, TvitD=1000 IU is the threshold for vitamin D formation (upd. CIE, 2006), EvitD_MED = 10000 IU is the equivalent of vitamin D formation due to obtaining of minimal erythema dose (MED), j relates to different skin types.

CHEMISTRY CLIMATE MODEL(CCM) DESCRIPTION

INM-RSHU CCM, 0-90km, 4x5 degree grid step

(Galin, Smyshlyev, Volodin, 2007)

GCM - INM RAS RSHU Chemical block

(74 gas species, 174 chemical reaction 46 reaction of

photodissociation)

INM model is participated in all IPCC report model evaluations of climate change (IPCC2013). INM-RSHU 3D model has been used for Ozone Assessment 2007 Report (Smyshlyaev et al., JGR, 1998, Galin, Smyshlyaev 2007 )

INPUT DATASET TO INM-RSHU CCM WERE SPECIFIED ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING SOURCES OVER THE 1979-2015 PERIOD:

❑Emissions of the ozone depleting substances (WMO, 2005, 2011)

❑Solar activity (DeWolfe et al., 2010) ❑Stratospheric aerosol (Thomason et al., 2006)

❑SST and ice coverage: ❑MetOffice (Rayner et al., 2003) ❑ERA-Interim (Dee et al., 2011) ❑SOCOL SST (Stenke, et al., 2013)

❑Greenhouse gases scenarios: A2 with A1B - for CH4.

METHOD FOR THE UV TREND EVALUATION

Cloud transmittance and its spectral correction according to [Chubarova et al.,2017]:

CQ=Q/Q(clear), CQery=f(CQir(hsun))

Deviations of erythemal irradiance due to cloudiness

Vertical profiles or Total ozone amount

Deviations of erythemal irradiance (Qery) due to ozone variation( X) by RAF-

method [Chubarova et al., 2016]:

Linear trends of erythemal irradiance due to ozone and clouds

INM-RSHU CCM , and ERA-INTERIM Re-analysis datasets over 1979-2015 period

Global shortwave irradiance(Qir) in clear-sky (Qclear) and cloudy conditions (Qcloud),

surface albedo data

𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄~𝑋𝑋𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅(ℎ𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠)

CORRECTION OF TOMS AND OMI DATA

The erythemal irradiance data of the satellite instruments TOMS and OMI were corrected on absorbing aerosol to obtain a homogeneous series from updated Macv2 dataset (S. Kinne, personal communication).

τext(λ) – aerosol optical thickness;

ω(λ) – single scattering albedo;

λ – wavelength.

Qery(base) – standard UV value; Qery(corrected) – corrected UV value; CF – correction factor.

absbase

correct

QeryQeryCF

τ311

+==

Satellite UV retrievals with modified aerosol correction

( Krotkov et al., 1998)

Relative and absolute difference between UV indices with standard OMI correction and with the

application of the updated Macv2 aerosol climatology. July.

Relative,%

Absolute

Annual ozone 1979-2015 climatology according to different datasets.

INM-RSHU model Satellite data (TOMS, OMI from the Bodeker

archive updated from Giovanni site) )

ERA-INTERIM

Jan April July October Year

Annual Qery trends (% per 10 years) due to

ozone according to different scenarios in INM-RSHU CCM. 1979-2015.

By hatching statistically significant Qery trends are shown at alfa=0.05.

Anthropogenic effect Stratospheric aerosol effect

Solar activity SST effect (MetOffice dataset)

All factors together

% per 10 years

Ozone factor:

Qery trends due to ozone changes over 1979-2015 period according to CCM, ERA-INTERIM and Satellite data

Jan April July October Year

Ozone factor:

Cloud factor: ANNUAL CLOUD UV MODIFICATION FACTOR

CLIMATOLOGY ACCORDING TO SATELLITE, ERA-INTERIM RE-ANALYSIS AND INM-RSHU CCM DATA

FOR 1979-2015 PERIOD

Model data

Satellite Data

1979-1991 [Zhdanova, Chubarovа

et al., 2013]

ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis

Qery trends due to cloudiness from the INM_RSHU and ERA-INTERIM datasets

Jan April July Oct

Annual trends of erythemal irradiance due to cloudiness according to INM-RSHU CCM

dataset for 1979-2015 period

Hatching shows trends with a significance at alfa=0.05

%/10 years

Interannual variability of the cloud transmittance of the UV radiation based on the data of the reconstruction model and INM-RSHU model

over Moscow

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CQ UVreconstruction model INM-RSHU model

Erythemal irradiance trends due to ozone and cloudiness according to

INM-RSHU CCM

QERY TRENDS OVER MOSCOW DUE TO OZONE AND CLOUDS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT DATASETS a

Correlation matrix over 1999-2015

VERIFICATION:

Observations INM_RSHU Reconstr ERA_INTERIM SATELLITEObservations 1.0 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.9

INM_RSHU 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.0Reconstr 1.0 0.9 1.0

ERA_INTERIM 1.0 0.9SATELLITE 1.0

Trends in Qery per decade (%/10 year) due to ozone and cloudiness over the

1979-2015 period

ESTIMATION OF SIMILARITY IN QERY TREND AREAS LOCATION USING THE CRA (CONTIGUOUS RAIN AREAS) METHOD OF

VERIFICATION ( Ebert, McBride, 2000)

January

April

July

October

INM-RSHU model ERA-INTERIM Positive trend

UV resources for 1979 and 2015 and the changes in their area from 1979 to 2015 due to erythemal irradiance

trends according to ERA-INTERIM data and skin type 1. Cloudy conditions.

0 1 -1

Blue color means moving the areas to the north due to Qery increase, Red color – opposite effect

Difference =UV R (2015)-UV R(1979)

CONCLUSIONS • We confirmed that the reason for the positive Qery trends due to

the reduction of ozone content (1-2%/10 years) over most Northern Eurasia areas is the anthropogenic halogen emissions but the influence of natural factors (especially SST) on the Qery trends can also be noticeable.

• The changes UV due to clouds according to ERA-INTERIM (our most reliable data) data has a significant trends of about 6-9% per decade ( both due to ozone and cloudiness) over several territories and much smaller – according to the CCM model .

• There are significant changes of UV resources providing more favorable conditions over some areas in winter and detrimental ones with the total decrease of UV optimum conditions – in spring and summer months.