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Utilizing Large Truck Crash Causation Data to Assess Countermeasure Effectiveness
Presented at theSAE Government/Industry Meeting, May 2008
Kristin KingsleyEngineer, Vehicle Safety Research
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Outline
Define the Crash ProblemDiscuss CountermeasuresCrash Causation PhilosophiesLTCCS MethodologyLTCCS AnalysisCase ExamplesWhere to Go from Here
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Persons Killed and Rate
Source: FARS and FHWA
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Per
son
s K
illed
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Fata
litie
s /
100M
VM
T
Persons Killed Fatalities / 100M VMT
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Heavy Truck Fatalities2006 FARS
NoncollisionImpact w ith Non-
fixed Object
Frontal Impact w ith Another MV,
Side Impact w ith Another MV
Rear Impact w ith Another MV
Impact w ith Fixed Object
Fatalities:805 - Truck Occupants3,766 - Other Vehicle Occupants424 - Non-occupants
10%11%
4%
15%
12%
46%
1%Other/Unknown
Impact with Another MV
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Crash PreventionWhat Can Advanced Technologies Do to Help Prevent Crashes?
Augment Driver Performance• Forward Collision Warning • Automatic Braking• Drowsy-driver monitoring• Vision Enhancement (Night Vision)• Lane Departure Warning
Augment Vehicle Performance• Intervene when driver action would be insufficient to prevent a
crash (Stability Control Systems - ESC and RSC)
Augment Other Vehicle Systems• Vehicle to vehicle communications
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NHTSA’s Role
Continue to Encourage the Refinement and Integration of Advanced TechnologiesEvaluate Technology EffectivenessSet Minimum Performance CriteriaEducate ConsumersEncourage the Market Where AppropriateRegulate Where Appropriate
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Crash Causal Factors
Driver Related Driver Related FactorsFactors90%90%
Vehicle Related 2%
Vehicle Related Vehicle Related 2%2%
RoadSurface8%
RoadRoadSurfaceSurface8%8%
Source: Syntheses Report: Examination of Target Vehicular Crashes and Potential ITS Countermeasures, Wassim Najm, et al, DOT HS 808 263, 1995, Section 3
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Crash Causation
Too Fast for CurveDecreasing RadiusNegative SuperelevationCargo ShiftDefective Leaf Spring Assembly
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Crash Causation
Network of CausesPerchonok’s Accident Cause Analysis
• Systematic framework of crash factors• Interrelated events and conditions
Clinical MethodRelative Risk Analysis
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LTCCS Philosophy and Methodology
1070 Heavy Vehicle CrashesCapture all Contributing FactorsOn-Scene InvestigationsData Collected
• Interviews• Vehicle Inspections• Scene Documentation
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Crash Assessment
Critical Crash Envelope
Critical Reason for
The Critical Precrash
Event
Critical Precrash
Event Associated
Factors
Critical Precrash
Event
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Why Did We Collect LTCCS Data?
To Determine Cause (As in Fault)?Who Caused the LTCCS Crashes?
• Critical Reason was assigned to the passenger vehicle in 56% of the truck vs. light vehicle crashes
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Critical Reason <> Cause
Culpability plays NO role in determining the critical precrash event
V1
V1
V2
V2
V1
V1
V1
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Why Did We Collect LTCCS Data?
In 41%* of truck vs. light vehicle crashes, the truck contributed more to the crash
• In 52%* of truck vs. light vehicle crashes, countermeasures on the truck may have helped to prevent the crash
In 40%* of the truck vs. nonmotoristcrashes, the truck contributed more to the crash
• In 70%* of truck vs. nonmotorist crashes, countermeasures on the truck may have the potential to help prevent the crash
*Preliminary Results based on engineering analysis of LTCCS cases
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Why Did We Collect LTCCS Data?
To Gain a Better Understanding of Crash CausationTo Find Countermeasures10% of crashes in LTCCS were not preventable by crash avoidance technologies, public education, or enforcement
• 64% of the crashes in LTCCS may have benefited from countermeasures on the truck
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LTCCS Analysis
ObjectiveMethodology
• Case ReviewsSummaryScene DiagramCrash Event Assessment FormPhotos
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Case Reviews – Example
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Case Reviews – Example
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Case Reviews – Example
Truck CountermeasuresLight Vehicle CountermeasuresOther Countermeasures
• EnvironmentBetter Roadway DesignBetter Signage
Who “Caused” the Crash
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What Can We Do With This
Focus NHTSA Efforts on Promising TechnologiesUse LTCCS Analysis to Inform our GES and FARS Estimates of Countermeasure Effectiveness and Cost/Benefits Analysis
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Disclaimer
Subjectivity of Case ReviewsRich Data Available to AllGood Luck
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