utilisation of soft operational research methods within capability based planning
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Utilisation of Soft Operational Research Methods within Capability Based Planning. Emile F Pelletier Strategic Planning Operational Research Team Defence Research and Development Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis 1-09-2010. Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Outline. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Defence Research andDevelopment Canada
Recherche et développementpour la défense Canada Canada
Utilisation of Soft Operational Research Methods within Capability Based Planning
Emile F PelletierStrategic Planning Operational Research Team
Defence Research and Development CanadaCentre for Operational Research and Analysis
1-09-2010
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Outline
• References
• Introduction
• the SC2RAT Tool
– Inputs
– Method
– Outputs
– Way Ahead
• Questions
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP References
• Burton, R.M.H., Christopher, G.L., Chouinard, P., Kerzner, L.F., Maj Simonds, K., (2005). Procedures, processes and tools of capability-based planning: An outline for a Canadian approach. DRDC-CORA TR 2005-035, November, 2005.
• Christopher, G., Blakeney, D., Petryk, R., Taylor, B., Kerzner, L., Fong, V., …, Beard, A., (2009). Strategic capability roadmap version 1.0 analytic framework. DRDC-CORA TR 2009-013, December, 2009.
• TTCP JSA TP3 (2006). Guide to capability-based planning [Word document]. Retrieved from Public Scientific & Technical Information Online Web site. http://www.dtic.mil/ttcp/JSA-TP-3-CBP-Paper-Final.doc.
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Introduction
• Capability Based Planning process depends on harnessing ‘soft’ SME inputs into numeric data to use to produce an investment plan.
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Introduction
(Burton, Christopher, Chouinard, Kerzner, & Simonds, 2005)
Scenarios
Planning> req’ts
Management> affluences/deficiencies
Integration> plan
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Capability Planning
• Steps to Identify Capability Requirements
• Chief of Defense Staff Action Team Capability Assessment Matrix(CATCAM)
• Output: Prioritised list of Capability requirements, Capability goals (MoC)
(Christopher et al., 2009)
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Capability Management
• Map CF Force Structure to required Capabilities
• The Scenario Capability + Capacity Requirements Assessment / Outlook Tool (SC2RAT)
• A set of scenarios assessed with SC2RAT generates a list of Capability deficiencies.
• Concurrency analysis completes this list and allows production of a list of affluences.
• Consideration of capability deficiencies and development of possible alternatives
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Utilisation of Soft OR Methods within CBP Components of SC2RAT
• SC2RAT uses a mix of hard and soft elements
• Soft OR in SC2RAT:
– SMEs provide objective input
– Interpreting MoCs that come from planning
– Judgment to choose Force Elements to conduct required capabilities and assessing quantities of each FE required
• Hard OR in SC2RAT:
– Algorithms and various calculations
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The SC2RAT ToolInputs
• Scenarios
– Scenario Analysis (CATCAM)
• Capability requirements
• Prioritisation of Capabilities (CATCAM scores)
• Measures of Capability (MoCs)
• Capability Framework
• Force Structure
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT ToolInputs
Qualitative
Quantitative
Factual Conceptual
Capability FrameworkScenarios
Measures of Capability
CATCAM Scores
Force Structure
Subject Matter Expert (SME) input SME + OR Analyst Support input
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT ToolMethod
• SMEs determine:
– Force Elements (w/ qty.) to conduct Capabilities
– Assessment across time-slices
• SC2RAT calculates:
– Capability Outlook: a colour-coded depiction of the overall ‘health’ of capabilities over time
– Capability Deficiencies
– Force Packages: list quantities of FEs required
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The SC2RAT Tool Method
Snapshot from SC2RAT, summer 2010 version
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT ToolMethod
• Soft aspects of SC2RAT method
– Group interpretation of MoCs:
• translate into quantifiable assessments which are quantities of FEs needed to conduct capabilities
– Working with conceptual inputs:
• Capability Framework
• Scenarios
• CATCAM scores
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT Tool Outputs
• Capability Outlook to show results at a broad level
• Capability Deficiencies for consideration and development of Alternatives
• Force Packages for input into the Concurrency Tool to allow for identification of Capability affluences
Snapshot from SC2RAT, summer 2010 version
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT Tool Outputs
Qualitative
Quantitative
Factual Conceptual
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT Tool Outputs
Qualitative
Quantitative
Factual Conceptual
Capability Deficiencies
Capability Outlook
Force Packages
Subject Matter Expert (SME) output SME + OR Analyst Support output
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT Tool Outputs
Qualitative
Quantitative
Factual Conceptual
Capability Deficiencies
Capability Outlook
Force Packages
Subject Matter Expert (SME) output SME + OR Analyst Support output
Capability FrameworkScenarios
Measures of Capability
CATCAM Scores
Force Structure
Subject Matter Expert (SME) input SME + OR Analyst Support input
Defence R&D Canada • R & D pour la défense Canada
The SC2RAT Tool Way Ahead
• Capturing discussions in SC2RAT (‘soft’)
• Allow the allocation algorithm to substitute different FEs for unavailable FEs (‘hard’)
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Questions