utah trendlines: nov-dec 2010

8/8/2019 Utah Trendlines: Nov-Dec 2010

1/28

Perspectives on Utahs Economy

November/December 2010

Department of Workforce Services

Utah in thGreat Recessi

Still Looking: The Lengthening of Unemployment Duration

Utah's NeOccupationProjections

2008-201

Manufacturing Takes a Heavy Hit


2/282 N v m /D c m 2010

DWS-03-44-1110

Trendlines

is published every other month by theUtah Department o Wor orce Services,

Wor orce Research and Analysis. To read,download, or print this publication ( ree),

see our Internet site: http://jobs.utah.gov/wi. Clic on Publications then select the one

you want rom the list.

To obtain additional printed copies or to

subscribe to Trendlines contact:Department of Workforce Services

Attn: WRA140 East 300 South

Salt La e City, UT 84111

Telephone: (801) 526-9462Fax: (801) 526-9238

Email: [email protected]

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Trendlines

U D W k c S c s

Executi e Direct r Kristen Cox

W rkf rce Research a d A alysis Rick Little, Director

Kimberley Bartel, Editor

C tribut rs Mark Knold

John Mathews John Krantz Jim Robson

Lecia Langston Linda Marling Church

Faye EdebiriSamantha Mary Julian

C rdi ati

Connie Blaine

Desig er Pat Swenson

jobs.utah.gov


3/28

pg. 20

pg. 8

j .ut .g v/ T ndl n

4 The End to Net Job LossesWasatch Front and Statewide

6Utahs New Occupational

Projections2008-2018The Outlook

8 Manufacturing Takes a Heavy Hit Economic Insight

10Economic Recovery in 2010 Disappoints

National News

12 Utah in the Great Recession Insider News

14Still Loo ing: The Lengthening o

Unemployment Duration Economic News

18

Watching the Great Recession"Dent" the Economy

What's Happening

20 Telemarketers: Not for the Faint of HeartOccupations

22 The Rural Resistance to the Great RecessionThe Outskirts

24 Get Paid to Train Your Best Employee!Our Guest

25 Utah Renewable Energy Business Summit DWS News

26 Carbon CountyCounty Highlight

27 Just the Facts... Rate Update

contents

A Review o theRecent Economic

Downturn

P e rs p ect ive s o n Uta hs E cono m y

N ove m b er /D ece m b er 20 10

Department o f WorkforceSe r vices

U ta h in the Grea t R ec ession

S till Look ing: T he Lengt hening o f Unemplo ymen t Dura tion

U tah'sNe w Oc c upa tionalPro jec tions

2008-2018

Manu f ac turing Tak es a Hea v yHit


4/284 November/December 2010

N o more net job losses. That is where I see theUtah economy here at late summer 2010. Thiscoincides with the U.S. Bureau o Labor Statistics(BLS) estimates or Utah, which already place year-overjob growth above 1 percent by late summer. I eel that is abit optimistic, yet I also eel the message o an improvingeconomy holds just the same.

I am com ortable with believing the BLS survey is overlyoptimistic, or two reasons. One, my lower estimate is builtupon more comprehensive BLS data that comes in severalmonths a ter BLS initial survey. My estimate is anchoredo o , and extrapolated rom, that more comprehensivedata (called the Quarterly Census o Employment andWages; QCEW). Second, that very QCEW data, when itbecame available, has shown that the monthly survey jobestimates over the past two years have been too optimistic.(That might be a con using use o language, as the surveydid project large job losses or Utah or the past two years.But the losses turned out to be even deeper than thesurvey was suggesting.)

What do I expect going orward? I believe the ederalstimulus did have a positive impact upon the economyin late 2009 into early 2010. Its impact waned over the

summer, and the economy seemed to go into a pause.Could the economy stand without that original stimulushelp? I believe that is what the markets were trying todetermine throughout the wavering summer months. Inow believe that the answer is a just-barely yes. There ore,the economy should begin to slowly grow as we moveinto and through 2011. Yet it may only be baby steps interms o adding jobs to the Utah economy. The pain ulimpact rom the recent recession is not easily removed,and is anticipated to continue negatively infuencing theeconomy or several more years.

wasatch front and statewide | by mark knold, chief economist

to Net

JobLosses

What should we expect from the economy going forward?

TheEnd


5/28 jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines

The federalstimulus had

a positiveimpact that

waned over thesummer. The

economy shouldbegin to slowly

grow movinginto 2011.


6/286 N v m /D c m 2010

utl k | y l c k l ng t n, c n m t

One o the most di fcult parts o my job is ma ing occupational

projections. A ter all, I dontreally now the uture and projectingeconomic outcomes is as much art asscience. However, having said that,Im aided by lots o current data,long-term trends, a time-honoredmethodology, and the chance to renewmy projections every two years. Werecurrently releasing the most recentoccupational projections.

A few things to remember: Demand but no supply. Projection

numbers represent only thedemand side o the demand/supply equation. An occupation mayproduce lots o openings but stillhave even more wor ers willing towor in that particular career.

Growth and replacements. Openingscome rom two sourcesgrowth andthe need to replace wor ers whohave le t the occupation or anyreason (retirement, changing careers,leaving the labor orce, promotion,

etc.) Large occupationslarge number o

openings. Large occupations typicallyhave large numbers o projectedopenings. In Utah the occupationswith the highest employment levelsare retail sales wor ers, customerservice representatives, cashiers, and

ast ood wor ers.

Growth rates versus number o openings. A ast-growing occupationmay not necessarily have many

New OccupationalProjections2008-2018

openings. For example, an occupationthat showed employment o 10 in2008 and projected employmento 20 in 2018 would display a 10-year growth rate o 100 percent.However, it would have created only10 additional jobs. Its important toloo at both growth rates and thenumber o openings.

Wages are important, too. Anoccupation could have absolutelytons o openings, but pay a relativelylow wage. That might ma e it a poorcareer choice. Chec out the starratings or individual occupations

on our website or a measure thatcombines employment outloo andwage in ormation.

A picture (graph to an economist) isworth a thousand words. So, ta e timeto loo at the graphs included withthis article and then wend your way toour website. Until then, here are someo the points I thin are important tounderstand about the current set o occupational projections:

Current projections indicate that onaverage each year between 2008 and2018, Utah will grow about 2 percent

Utahs


7/28 j .ut .g v/ T ndl n

9,

8,100

5,300

4,300

3,700

3,600

3,500

3,100

3,000

3,000

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,900

1,700

1,400

1,200

1,100

1,000

800

400

300

O ce/Administrative Support

Sales & Related

Food Preparation/Serving

Construction/Extraction

Education/Training/Library

Transportation/Material Moving

Healthcare Practitioners/ Technical

Management

Business/Financial Operations

Production

Personal Care & Service

Installation/Maintenance/Repair

Healthcare Support

Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance

Computer & Mathematical

Art/Design/Entm't./Sports/Media

Protective Service

Community /Social Services

Architecture/Engineering

Life/Physical/Social Science

Legal

Farming/Fishing/Forestry

Source: Utah Department o Work orce Services.

5%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%


8/288 N v m /D c m 2010

c n m c n g t | y j n m t , c n m t

The recession has ta en a toll on Utahs manu acturing sec-tor. Through the 2007 to 2009 period this very importantsector has lost 14,800 jobs, a drop o 11.8 percent. In 2007,Utah counted 127,650 manu acturing wor ers. That ell in thetwo-year period to 112,640. The only other sector su ering moreis construction.

So which o the 22 sub-industries in manu acturing have elt thebiggest squeeze? Manu acturing is divided into two large groups:durable goods manu acturing (goods that last more than threeyears); and nondurable goods manu acturing (goods that dontlast three years). Which o these two groups do you thin haveta en the hardest hit in the recession?

It was the durable goods sector that accounted or 94 percent o the14,810 jobs cut. Nearly all the pain in manu acturing was in du-rable goods. Why? For one thing, durable goods comprise 87,000o the total 127,650 jobs in manu acturing. So you would expectthe larger share o the losses to all in durable goods. The otherreason, and to some extent a more subtle one, is that the ma eupo nondurable goods has to do with producing things we consumeor use every day, li e ood, gasoline, and chemicals. These goods

are what economists call more inelastic, in that theyare more li e necessities than durable goods, suchas steel, building materials, and other goods that

are not currently in de-mand because o the

recession.

Manufacturingtakes a

Heavy

Furniture, transportation equipment, wood products, and nonmetallic mineral productsare the hardest hit.

H i t


9/28 j .ut .g v/ T ndl n j .ut .g v/ T ndl n

totalManufacturing

Job losses

were 14,800.

loss of wages

aMounted to$250 Million inthe two-year

period.

O the 22 sub-industries in manu actur-ing the fve that lost (and are still losing)the most jobs are all in durable goods (see

graph). These manu acturers include ur-niture, transportation equipment, woodproducts, miscellaneous, and nonmetal-lic mineral products (stone, clay, glass,cement, etc.). Just these fve contributed12,700 o the total 14,800 total losses inmanu acturing.

c f pI the state as a whole too a nearly 12-per-cent hit in manu acturing, by ar thelargest share o the loss was in Box ElderCounty where 1,430, or 17.8 percent o

all manu acturing jobs were lost between2007 and 2009. In terms o actual num-bers o jobs lost in the sector, Salt La eCounty dropped over 5,400 jobs in man-u acturing. Six o the 29 counties in thestate claimed 87 percent o all manu ac-turing jobs lost since the start o the reces-sion. Nationally, manu acturing lost 14.4percent o all its employmentnearly twomillion ewer persons on payrolls.

Hope ully the economy, and particularlymanu acturing, is heading or some de-gree o recovery. Manu acturing is stillsliding but the slide is slowing. Consumerperception o better times ahead may in-crease spending and that may well createenough demand to increase economic andmanu acturing activity.

recession Job lossesin Manufacturing

industries 2007-2009


-1,780

-1,960

-2,160

-2,220

-3,570

NonmetallicMinerals Product

Misc.

WoodProducts

TransportationEquipment

Furniture& Related Products

-630

-1,070

-1,430

-1,510

-2,830

-5,420

Cache

Weber

BoxElder

Davis

Utah

Salt Lake

recession Job losses in

Manufacturing inutah counties

2007-2009


10/2810 N v m /D c m 2010

n t n l n | y j m n, c n m t

The labor mar et continues to eel the dismale ects o the Great Recession o 2008 and 2009as 2010 comes to a close. 2010 was to be the starto economic recovery. While there has been economicgrowth (as measured by gross national product), sincethe third quarter o 2009, economic expansion was notsu fciently robust to substantially improve labor mar etconditions.

In December 2009, the U.S. labor mar et completed itssecond year o widespread job losses. Employment pea edwith 138 million payroll jobs in December 2007. Morethan 8.3 million jobs were shed through December 2009,a reduction o 6.1 percent. Sluggish payroll job growth in2010 should restore about 1.2 million o the lost jobs.

In the current, extraordinarily di fcult, labor mar et, about

14.9 million people are unemployed. The unemploymentrate has been about 9.6 percent, not much below the highor this recession o 10.1 percent reached in October 2009.

The duration o unemployment set new records during2010. The average wee s o unemployment rose to an all-time high o 35.2 in June 2010, with the previous highbeing 21.2 wee s in July 1984. There were 6.8 millionwor ers who have been unemployed or hal a yearor more during the summer months o 2010. This is arecord 4.4 percent o the labor orce.

The labor orce, as defned by the U.S. Bureau o LaborStatistics (BLS), consists o all civilians 16 years o ageand older who have a job ( ull or part-time) plus theunemployedwho must be actively loo ing or worduring the previous our wee s. During 2007 and 2008,about 66 percent o persons 16 and above were in the labor

orce. This labor orce participation rate has been trendingdown since the 4 th quarter 2008, dropping to 64.7 percentin the summer 2010; the lowest level since August 1985.

Even with economic growth, the labor mar et canexperience a considerable lag be ore its indicators showimprovement. In order or the job mar et to improvenoticeably, increasing hours and new hiring must growat a su fciently rapid pace to remove the substantial slacin the labor orce. Labor demand must intensi y enoughto increase the hours o part-time wor ers who desire ull-

time wor , to absorb the natural growth o wor ers dueto normal population increase, to account or reentrantswho will join the labor orce as job opportunities becomemore prevalent, and to hire millions o the unemployed.

It will li ely ta e two to three years o strong economicexpansion to achieve the healthy and vibrant labor mar etdesired. Going orward into 2011, i economic expansioncontinues to be anemic, the labor mar et stresses andhigh unemployment will be all too prevalent.

Economic Recoveryin 2010

DisappointsEven with economic growth,the labor market can lag beforeshowing improvement.


11/28

149

150

151

152

153

154

155

156

2006 Jan 2006 Jul 2007 Jan 2007 Jul 2008 Jan 2008 Jul 2009 Jan 2009 Jul 2010 Jan 2010 Jul

L a b o r

F o r c e

i n M i l l i o n s

j .ut .g v/ T ndl n 1

56789

10111213141516

17

2006 Jan 2006 Jul 2007 Jan 2007 Jul 2008 Jan 2008 Jul 2009 Jan 2009 Jul 2010 Jan 2010 Jul

U n e m p

l o y e

d i n M i l l i o n s

A he a l t h y a nd vi b r a n t

l a b or m a r ke t w i l l s l o w l y

e merg e.

Unemployed in the United States2006 - 2010 (seasonally adjusted)

U.S. Civilian Labor Force2006 - 2010 (seasonally adjusted)

Source: U.S. Bureau o Labor Statistics.

Source: U.S. Bureau o Labor Statistics.


12/28

n d n | y m k kn ld, c c n m t

The recent economic un-pleasantness is being la-beled the Great Recession.

Is it over? That is still being de-bated, but at least it does appearthat the frst phase o this reces-sion has endeda phase charac-terized with the contraction o the economyjob losses. It loo sas i we are now in the next phaseo the Great Recession, whichamounts to a prolonged stabili-zation periodan easing o the

detrimental job losses, but alsono sizeable job rebound.

Since we are assuming the frstphase is over, lets review it.The recession has been given ano fcial start date o December2007. I one is basing the frstphase on employment losses,then it loo ed li e that phaseended in February 2010. Acrossthat roughly two-year period,the Utah economy shed around

in the Great

Year-Over Percent Changein Nonfarm Jobs

Source: U.S. Bureau o Labor Statistics; Utah Dept. o Work orce Services

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Utah

U.S.

Great Recession

12 N v m /D c m 2010

Utah Recession


13/28T ndl n 1 j .ut .g v/

84,000 jobs. That translates into anemployment loss right around 6.6percent. That is quite signifcant.

Across that period, Utahs season-ally-adjusted unemployment ratehas risen rom 3.1 percent to 7.2percenta more than two- old in-crease. Only in the early 1980s wasthe rate higher, and that was drivenas much by a unique demographicsurge o young baby boomers intothe labor mar et as by a recession

matching this one.The Utah unemployment rate isroughly two percentage points belowthe national unemployment rate,prompting comments that Utahhas ared better in this economicdownturn than the rest o the nation.That is not how I would characterizeUtahs economic per ormance.

Across the re erenced time period,the national employment picture

contracted by 6.0 percent. So com-pare Utahs 6.6 percent employ-ment contraction against that, andone can conclude that the Utaheconomy has actually per ormedworse than the national average inthis Great Recession. This ma essense considering that the areaswith housing bubbles were the oneshit the hardest, and Utah experi-enced an above-average housingbubble. So why do people say Utah

ared better? Because o the 7.2 per-

cent unemployment rate comparedagainst the national 9.7 percent.

I do not use the unemploymentrate as my primary statistic

or measuring the health orper ormance o the economy. Yes,it is revealing and does trac theeconomys per ormance (by risingas the job losses mounted), but theunemployment rate can exclude toomany people rom its measurement.Counting lost jobs, on the other

hand, does not exclude manywor ers. One can lose their job andbe counted as a job loss, yet not goloo or another job and there orenot be counted as unemployed(discouraged wor ers). There ore,loo ing at the unemployment rateas the primary variable to gaugeeconomic per ormance is tooimprecise a variable to be givenprominence in measuring therecessions impact.

So how did Utah are against theU.S. per ormance? Compare. Utahsunemployment rate at its heightin this recession: 7.2 percent. TheUnited States rate was 9.7 percent;Utahs job losses at -6.6 percent; theUnited States losses at 6.0 percent.In my mind, the undamental andmore comprehensive variable isjob loss, and at -6.6 percent, Utahcame up short against the nationalaverage.

Just as waves crest and fall, Utah's economwill no doubt rise again.


14/2814 N v m /D c m 2010

c n m c n | y j n k ntz, c n m t

The impact o a recession on the labor orcecan be measured in many di erent ways.The measures most requently mentionedin the media are the unemployment rate, the per-cent o job losses, and the number o jobs lost.Another gauge o the economys per ormancethat receives somewhat less attention is unem-ployment duration. This measure can give us in-sights into the unctioning o the labor mar etand the di fculties aced by the unemployed.

As a measure o labor mar et per ormance, unem-ployment duration is closely related to employ-ment turnover. In good times and bad, peopleleave their jobs or a variety o reasons, spend aperiod time unemployed, and eventually reenterthe ran s o the employed. When the labor mar-

et is unctioning smoothly, the time betweenleaving a job and fnding a new one is relativelyshort; during recessions, the time increases signi -icantly. In the latter case, the labor mar et is notper orming its tas o rapidly reallocating wor -ers to positions o new employment.

Unemployment duration also adds another dimen-sion to our characterization o the unemployed.When the average length o unemploy-ment duration increases, a larger share o theunemployed population experiences an increas-ingly dire predicament. During lengthy periods o unemployment, unemployed wor ers are orcedto deplete their savings, they cannot pay their

mortgages, and they o ten develop stress-relatedhealth problems. In this sense, unemploymentduration gives us a better understanding o thepotential di fculties aced by the unemployed.

Comparing Utah With the U.S.The distribution o unemployed individualsby the length o their spell o unemploymentduring 2009 is shown in Figure 1. As the fgurereveals, the unemployed in Utah spent less timejob-see ing, on average, than the unemployedin the U.S. Approximately 50 percent o Utahsjob see ers were unemployed or 11 wee s ormore, while 61 percent o the unemployedin the U.S. were see ing employment or11 or more wee s. Utahs overall averageduration was approximately one-thirdlower than nationwide: 16.2 wee sversus 24.4 wee s.

UnemploymentDUration throUgh

the reCeSSionEven though Utahs un-employed are jobless ora relatively shorter time,on average, than the na-tions unemployed, therecession signifcantlylengthened average un-employment duration in

STILL LOOkING:The Lengthening o Unemployment Duration


15/28T ndl n 1

Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau o Labor Statistics.

Figure 1.The Distribution o

Unemployment Duration2009

Less than 5wee s

5 to 10 wee s

11 to 14 wee s

15 to 26 wee s

27 to 51 wee s

52 wee s andover

Utah

U.S.

Utahs overall averageduration was approximately

one-third lower thannationwide.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

j .ut .g v/


16/2816 N v m /D c m 2010

the state. Figure 2 compares unem-ployment duration in 2007, the last

year be ore the onset o the recession,with 2009, the middle o the recession.Only 25 percent o all job see ers wereunemployed or 11 wee s or more in2007. By 2009, 50 percent were unem-ployed or 11 or more wee s. Duringthis period, the recession lengthenedthe average unemployment durationin Utah rom 11.3 wee s to 16.2 wee s.

DoeS UnemploymentDUration Differ bygenDer?

At the national level, there is littledi erence between unemploymentduration among men and women.The average unemployment duration

or men in the U.S. during 2009was 24.6 wee s as compared to 24.1wee s or women. However, there is aconsiderable di erence within Utah.Men in Utah were unemployed or anaverage o 17 wee s while women inUtah were unemployed or 14.7 wee s.As shown in Figure 3, 54.4 percent o

men were unemployed or 11 wee s ormore as compared to 41.8 percent o

women.Why does unemployment durationdi er between men and women inUtah? It seems that the answer has todo with which industries were hardesthit by the recession. The constructionand manu acturing industries su eredthe most job losses in the currentrecession, accounting or 43 percento all job losses in Utah rom 2007to 2009. Male wor ers ma e up 81percent o construction employmentand 70 percent o manu acturingemployment. In contrast, the twoindustries that showed the largestemployment gains rom 2007 to2009 were education and healthcare.Female wor ers ma e up 72 percento employment in healthcare and 64percent o employment in education.These percentages are indicative o a historical tendency or men andwomen to gravitate toward di erentoccupations, leading to some industriesbeing dominated by one gender or

c n m c n c nt. | y j n k ntz, c n m t

The constructionand manu acturing

industries su ered themost job losses in the

current recession.


17/28 j .ut .g v/ T ndl n 1


Less than 5 wee s

5 to 10 wee s

11 to 14 wee s

15 to 26 wee s

27 to 51 wee s

52 wee s andover

Figure 2.The Lengthening

o UnemploymentDuration Utah

2007 & 2009

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

2007

2009


Less than 5 wee s

5 to 10 wee s

11 to 14 wee s

15 to 26 wee s

27 to 51 wee s

52 wee s andover

Figure 3.Unemployment

Duration byGender in Utah

2009

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Male

Female

Utah job seekersare experiencing shorter spells o unemployment,on average, as

compared to the

nation.

the other. Because the e ects o therecession have varied across industries,

women have ound relatively moreemployment opportunities than men.

Utah throUgh the perSpeCtiveof UnemploymentDUrationAlthough unemployment durationhas increased during the recession,job see ers in Utah are experiencingshorter spells o unemployment, onaverage, as compared to the nation.While unemployed men and womenin Utah endure shorter periods o un-employment as compared to the U.S.averages, unemployment duration orUtahs women is considerably lowerthan or Utahs men.

I the traditionally male-dominated in-dustries continue to contract and the

emale-dominated industries continueto expand, we may see more men enterindustries that have traditionally beendominated by women.


18/2818 N v m /D c m 2010

t' n ng | y m k kn ld, c c n m t

w tc ng t G t r c n

There ore, something as heavy-handed as the GreatRecession should produce noticeable dents in Utahshistorical economic patterns. Ta e, or example, the

profle by age groups o people separated rom jobs. Thereare constant hiring and separations within the economyaconstant churn in the labor mar et. This is promoted by eitherthe nature o some industries, or the nature o some individuals.One must remove this rivolous turnover that constantlyoccurs in the economy and get down to the more stable aspecto the labor orce to evaluate the detrimental impact o therecession upon labor. There ore, we will narrow its e ects upononly wor ers employed at least three calendar quarters withthe same employer (labeled stable employment by the Census

Bureaus LED program, our data source or this evaluation). Thisnarrowing still leaves a very sizable chun o the labor mar etor evaluation, as more than 80 percent o all employment

meets this duration criterion.

Naturally, the youngest age group (16-to-24-year-olds)separates rom jobs at the highest rate. Its just the nature o young wor ers and their initial quest or their perceived ft in

the labor mar et. They account or roughly 33 to 35 percent o

DeNT tec n myOver time, the economy tends to establish

patterns. One way of characterizingan economic shock, like a recession, isthat it can disrupt or dent the normal

historical patterns (patterns that show upbest when graphed).


19/28T ndl n 19 j .ut .g v/

all separations on a quarterly basis. This is ollowedclosely by the 25-to-34-year-old age group, whichma es up another 28 percent o separations. Theremaining older age group alls substantially lowerthan these younger groups, with their separationsbeing only 15 percent or less o all separations (perolder age group).

The graph illustrates these separation profles. Butthe graph also shows a dent in the historical ow,particularly during the ourth quarter o 2008. TheGreat Recession will be characterized by sizeable joblosses. The greatest window o job loss was during the

ourth quarter o 2008 and the frst quarter o 2009.Wor ers across all age groups were involuntarilyseparated rom jobs. But something as power ul as

the Great Recession bit beyond the normal pattern.Although older wor ers remained at the lowest levelso layo activity, the older groups percentage o all

separations increased across those two quarters. Thisreiterates that the recession dug deepbeyond thenorm. Even older, more established wor ers were notbeyond the job-loss impact o this downturn. Thisis getting into the more tenured and experiencedwor ersthe ones who generally orm the core

oundation o a business labor orce. A ter thosetwo quarters the graph suggests the separationpercentages reverted bac to their historical ranges.But the two strong job loss quarters o the GreatRecessionparticularly the ourth quarter o 2008were quarters where the historical ranges werealtered.

Industries particularly a ected at that time anddeviating rom their norms (with increases in older

age-group separations) include transportation,education, real estate, construction, and thefnancial sector.

p c nt L ng T m* Job separaTioNs

by Calendar Quarter by Age Group: Utah

* Long-term defned as employed with the same employer or at least three consecutive calendar quarters.Separations include voluntary and involuntary.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, LED data.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr

16-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

2008 2009

Age Groupings

Recessions Impact


20/2820 N v m /D c m 2010

Telemar eters: Loo up this occupation on theInternet and some very negative responses ap-pear: how to fght o telemar eters, pran sto play, give a telemar eter a RUDE AWAkENING,you can be a telemar eters WORST NIGHTMARE!Sounds as i its us against them and their telephonecalls trying to get us to buy what theyre selling.

These responses and their underlying animosity woulddefnitely ma e any job-see er thin twice about

ta ing such a job. However, many people (about10,000 in Utah) are gain ully employed and happilyor unhappily per orming the duties o a telemar eter.Telemar eter, as defned in the Standard OccupationalClassifcation Manual, is one who solicits donations ororders or goods or services over the telephone.

While much o the dialogue heard rom a telemar eteris scripted and there is little adlib, some are quitesuccess ul in persuading the public to purchase a goodor service, vote or a candidate, or ma e a donationto a cause. I telemar eters were not success ul in

their endeavors there would be ar ewer o them. Topersuade the listener, the telemar eter must convey thein ormation e ectively while giving ull attention towhat the listener is saying. Being aware o the listenersreactions, countering their objections and ultimatelyma ing a sale are not easy to do.

Many phone calls result in unpleasant, angry, ordiscourteous people who are bothered by a call madeat an inappropriate time or the calls goal o sellingthem something deemed unnecessary, or a mere hang-up in the middle o a sales pitch. All the while, thetelemar eter must exhibit a pro essional approach andmany persuasive ones will be able to ma e a sale inspite o the listeners anger or objections.

Employees in telemar eter positions are trained onthe job and usually need a ew months to one year o wor ing with experienced employees. Telemar etingis not or everyone but or many it provides aliving and a challenge, worst nightmares and rudeawa enings aside.

ccu t n | y l nd m l ng c u c , c n ly t

Telemarketers:Not or the Faint o Heart


21/28 j .ut .g v/ T ndl n 2

Other

resources: Standard

OccupationalClassifcationManual, 2010

bls.gov

jobs.utah.gov

Location PayPeriod2009

10% 25% Median 75% 90%

United StatesHourly $7.58 $8.58 $10.49 $13.71 $18.11

Yearly $15,800 $17,800 $21,800 $28,500 $37,700

UtahHourly $7.94 $8.95 $10.65 $12.75 $14.63

Yearly $16,500 $18,600 $22,200 $26,500 $30,400


United StatesEmployment Percent

Change Job

Openings 12008 2018

Telemar eters 341,600 303,800 -11% 8,590

UtahEmployment Percent

Change Job

Openings 12006 2016

Telemar eters 9,140 9,600 +5% 370

Job Openings re ers to the average annual job openings due to growth and net replacement. 1

State and National Trends for Telemarketers
http://bls.gov/http://jobs.utah.gov/http://jobs.utah.gov/http://bls.gov/


22/2822 N v m /D c m 2010

ut k t | y j n k ntz, c n m t

The Great Recession has undoubt-edly been the most severe eco-nomic downturn the U.S. hasexperienced since the Great Depres-sion. Yet, the e ects o the recessionhave varied across states, counties,industries, and occupations. State un-employment rates range anywhere

rom 3.6 percent to 14.3 percent. Someindustries have su ered massive joblosses while other industries have ex-hibited relatively strong growth.

Given the varying e ects o therecession, how are Utahs rural countiesdoing as compared to the urban counties?Are the same industries responsible ormost o the job losses in both urbanand rural counties? As we will see, therecession has impacted rural and urban

counties in di erent ways.

Comp ng Job losses n rund U b n Coun es

The rural/urban distinction is basedon the O fce o Management andBudgets defnitions o three types o counties: metropolitan, micropolitan,and neither. The neither categoryencompasses those counties thatare commonly considered rural. Allo Utahs 29 counties are classifedaccording to this defnition in thetable.

In answer to our frst question, ruralcounties are doing comparatively bet-ter than urban counties. Rural countieshad the smallest percentage declinein employment, on average, between2007 and 2009, as shown in Figure 1.However, since rural counties account-ed or only 4.1 percent o Utahs totalemployment in 2009, they had littlee ect on improving the statewide per-centage o job losses. With 90.6 percent

to the g eat recession


23/28 j .ut .g v/ T ndl n 2

o all employment ound in the metro-politan counties, it is no surprise thatthe job losses are roughly the same asthose statewide. The counties su eringthe worst employment declines, on av-erage, are the intermediate-sized micro-politan counties.

t e h des -h ruindus esThe construction and manu acturingindustries su ered the largest job loss-es statewide rom 2007 to 2009. Over47,500 jobs were lost in these two in-dustries, accounting or 43 percent o all job losses in Utah. The story was nodi erent or rural counties. As Figure 2reveals, manu acturing and construc-tion top the list or job losses.

The next three industries are wherethe di erences lie between rural andurban industrial job losses. While theother services and real estate, rental,and leasing industries experienceddownturns across the state, the joblosses were comparatively more severein rural counties. Interestingly, the arts,entertainment, and recreation industryexperienced the third largest decline inemployment in rural counties, but itactually grew by 0.6 percent statewide

rom 2007 to 2009.

a ru rebound?Although most people would not saythat job losses are good, relativelyspea ing, the rural counties o Utah aredoing well compared to the rest o thestate. In act, several undaunted ruralcounties have actually exhibited em-ployment growth as o the frst quartero 2010. I the rural counties have a se-cret ormula or employment growth,maybe they could be so ind as to shareit with their urban neighbors.

Metropolitan CountiesCache, Davis, Juab, Morgan, Salt Lake, Summit,Tooele, Utah, Washington, and Weber Counties

Micropolitan Counties Box Elder, Carbon, Iron, Uintah, and Wasatch Co

Rural CountiesBeaver, Daggett, Duchesne, Emery, Garfeld, Grand,Kane, Millard, Piute, Rich, San Juan, Sanpete, Sevie

and Wayne Counties

FIGURE 2.Five Rural Industries with the Largest

2007-2009

Source: Utah Department o Work orce Services

-5.01%

-4.97%

-7.57%

-2.22%

State of Utah

MetropolitanCounties

MicropolitanCounties

Rural Counties

-116

-166

-278

-490

-576

Real Estate and Rental andLeasing

Other Services, except PublicAdministration

Arts, Entertainment, andRecreation

Construction

Manufacturing


24/2824 N v m /D c m 201024 N v m /D c m 2010

u gu t | y y d , ut t t c l t t n

When you hire a qualifed per-son with a disability throughVocational Rehabilitation

(VR), you get a reliable employee ANDget training costs paid!

On-the-Job Training (OJT) pro-vides employers the opportunity totrain job-qualifed individuals in thespecifc s ills needed or your busi-ness while receiving a subsidy to o -set your cost in providing that train-ing. Businesses can also earn ederaltax credits and payments.

Vocational rehabilitation counselorscan help match the most qualifedapplicant to positions and ollowthrough with supports and accom-modations.

To learn more about hiring and theOJT Program, contact your local Vo-cational Rehabilitation o fce at www.usor.utah.gov/contact or call (800) 473-7530 toll ree.

Get Paidt T nY u b tem l y !
http://www.usor.utah.gov/contacthttp://www.usor.utah.gov/contacthttp://www.usor.utah.gov/contact


25/28 j .ut .g v/ T ndl n 2

d n | y m nt m y jul n, Goe

Utah Re ewableEnERgy Busi ess Summit

C ome learn the resources that are available or wind, solar, geothermal and energye fciency businesses in Utah. Whether you are an established business loo ing to grow,a new business loo ing to get started, a service provider or a manu acturer see ing toconnect with industry, this summit will provide in ormation that will help you fnd that per ectopportunity in Utah!

Business, academic and nonproft leaders, manu acturers, community o fcials and entrepreneurs

should attend this summit to become educated about opportunities to grow in the renewableenergy and energy-e fciency industries. Industry experts rom the public, private, and non-proft sectors will give customized presentations, lead discussions, and networ with summitattendees.

The summit is a ull day event with registration running rom 7:30 AM to 8:30 AM, eynoteaddress at 8:30 AM and general session beginning at 9:00 AM. A ter lunch the a ternoon willbe flled with nearly a dozen brea out sessions targeted to satis ying all. Both the morning anda ternoon sessions will include networ ing opportunities. The whole event will wrap up atapproximately 5:00 PM.

The summit is the place or business leaders and decision ma ers to prepare or Utahs emergingopportunities in the renewable energy industry. A ew o the sessions you will enjoy:

novEmBER 158:30 a

t 5:00 p

Salt La eCommunity

College

Larry H. MillerCampus

9750 S. 300 W.Sandy, UT

84070

Registration:$65

For more information please visit our website:

http://business.utah.gov/targeted-industries-energy/ or contact Samantha Mary Julian at 801-538-8746 or

[email protected]

Wi d C p e t ma ufacturi g

W rkf rceDe el p e t &

I ce ti es

Regulat ryE ir e t

Fi d the PerfectI est r

Mar etopportunities,anatomy o a windturbine and structureo the supply chain

Finding energy savvytrained employees,state incentives orexpanding businessesand understandingUtahs current placein the mar et

Entering the mar etso solar, geothermaland energye fciency, advantagesand barriers

Emerging companieslearn how to:sharpen yourbusiness plan, fndinvestors and go a terthe per ect targetmar ets

Prepare for Utah's emerging opportunities

*Governor's O fce o Economic Development


26/2826 November/December 2010

27.7%

9.4% 9.1%8.1% 7.6% 7.0%

5.9%4.5% 4.4%

16.3%

A l l o t h

e r i n d u

s t r i e s

M a n u

f a c t u r

i n g

W h o l e

s a l e t r a

d e

E d u c a t

i o n a l s

e r v i c e

s

P u b l i c

a d m i n.

C o n s t

r u c t i o

n

T r a n s p

. &

w a r e h

o u s i n g

R e t a i l

t r a d e

H e a l t h

c a r e &

s o c i a

l

a s s i s t a

n c e M i n i n

g

county highlight | by john krantz, economist

The development of coal mining in the CastleCounty region was spurred by the building of arailway to link Salt Lake City and Denver duringthe 1880s. Carbon County was born from the coalmining industry in 1894. Ever since, mining has beenthe driving force behind its economy.

Minings importance to Carbon County is bestunderstood by looking at its shares of employmentand wages for 2009. Coal mining jobs made up 10.5percent of the countys total employment. If the 3percent of employment found in both the oil andgas and the mining support industries is included,the mining sector accounted for 13.5 percent of totalemployment, the largest sector in the county.

Even more impressive are the wages generated bymining. As seen in the graph, the mining industryaccounted for 27.7 percent of all wages paid in 2009.The graph also reveals the importance of the public

administration, healthcare, and education industries.Together, these three industries generated another 26.6percent of Carbon Countys total wages.

CarbonCounty

Carbon CountyShare of Total Wages by Industry

2009

S o u r c e : U t a h D e p a r t m e n t o f W o r k f o r c e S e r v i c e s .


27/28

Beaver 9.3 %Box Elder 8.8 %Cache 5.6 %Carbon 7.4 %Daggett 6.7 %

Davis 6.9 %Duchesne 7.1 %Emery 7.7 %Garfeld 10.8 %

Grand 10.8 %Iron 9.2 %

Juab 10.0 %kane 7.8 %Millard 6.3 %Morgan 7.3 %

Piute 7.1 %Rich 5.8 %Salt La e 7.3 %San Juan 12.9 %Sanpete 9.0 %

Sevier 8.0 %Summit 7.2 %Tooele 7.9 %Uintah 6.5 %Utah 7.6 %

Wasatch 9.0 %Washington 9.6 %Wayne 9.8 %Weber 8.4 %

augu t 2010s n lly adju t dUn m l ym nt r t

Next Issue:Watch for these features in our

August 2010Unemployment Rates

Changes From LastYear

Utah Unemployment Rate 7.4 % Up 0.6 points

U.S. Unemployment Rate 9.6 % Down 0.1 points

Utah Non arm Jobs (000s) 1,193.4 Up 1.6 %U.S. Non arm Jobs (000s) 130,149.0 Up 0.2 %

August 2010 Consumer PriceIndex RatesU.S. Consumer Price Index 218.3 Up 1.1%U.S. Producer Price Index 179.6 Up 3.1%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

j u s t t h e f a c t s...

j .ut .g v/ T ndl n 2

t u d t | k c n m

The e:A Loo Forward

C u ty Highlight: Cache

occupati :Imaging Technician


28/28

Presorted StandardUS Postage

PAIDSLC, UT

Permit # 4621

Utah Department of Workforce ServicesWorkforce Research and Analysis Division140 E. 300 S.Salt Lake City, UT 84111

Who t l g t f m n y u ? hoW d y u c m t t

n z nd ty f m ?

FirmFindAn online directory

of 80,000 pluscompanies or

businesses in Utah

http://jobs utah gov/jsp/frmfnd/welcom

utah trendlines: nov-dec 2010

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