utah economic overview utah alliance for economic development october 4, 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Utah Economic Overview
Utah Alliance for Economic Development
October 4, 2011
“The probability of recession in the next six to 12 months is an uncomfortably high 40%.”
Mark Zandi, Moody’s AnalyticsSeptember 14, 2011
“The U.S. economy is surrounded and unable to break through enemy lines.”
Wells Fargo Securities Economic GroupSeptember 7, 2011
“We are seeing the worst economic numbers since the collapses of Lehman Brothers in 2008…We are poised for a Lehman-like event.”
Fareed ZakariaGlobal Public SquareSeptember 25, 2011
“We expect U.S. and European policymakers to do just enough to avoid another downturn…it is not hard to envisage substantially darker scenarios.”
Mark Zandi, Moody’s AnalyticsSeptember 14, 2011
“We have entered what I have called a dangerous new phase.”Christine LagardeInternational Monetary Fund managing directorSeptember 24,2011
“Europe is on the verge of losing control of orderly solutions to its debt crisis.”
Mohamed El-ErianFinancial TimesSeptember 22, 2011
Utah Job GrowthMonthly Year Over Percent Change
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Labor Market IndicatorsAugust 2011
Utah unemployment rate 7.6%U.S. unemployment rate 9.1%
Year-over Utah job growth rate 2.9%Year-over U.S. job growth rate 1.0%
# Unemployed in Utah 102,000# Discouraged workers in Utah 35,000-65,000
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services and Salt Lake Chamber
Utah Job Growth by IndustryAugust 2010–2011
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Fastest Growing Economies in UtahAugust 2010–2011
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Employment by GenderPercent of Industry Employment, 2010
Prescription for Growth• Stop doing harm.• Pass a jobs bill.• Pause all major discretionary regulations.• Commit to a long-term deficit reduction plan.• Progress with free trade agreements.• Responsibly expand access to federal land/off
shore drilling.• Take a giant step toward entitlement reform.
Congress and the Obama Administration must follow through on plans for long-term deficit reduction, but also must provide additional near-term support to the economy.
PARAPHRASEDBen BernankeFederal Reserve BankSeptember 2011
President Obama’s Jobs Plan10-Year Cost
Tax cuts
Payroll tax holiday (employees) $175 B
Payroll tax holiday (employers) $65 B
Accelerated depreciation $5 B
Long-term unemployed tax credit $8 B
Veterans hiring tax credit $0.1 B
TOTAL TAX CUTS $260 B
Spending
Unemployment insurance reforms $49 B
Infrastructure and infrastructure bank $60 B
School renovations $30 B
Aid to state and local governments $35 B
Other $18 B
TOTAL SPENDING INCREASES $192 B
Headwinds
European debt crisis
Political dysfunction
Stock market volatility
Consumer confidence
Japan and MENA crises
Tailwinds
Downward trend on oil prices
Demography is destiny
Utah is global
Fiscal prudence
Downtown Rising
Marquee expansions
PAC 12
Huntsman/Romney
Utah’s Future
Plea for national economic leadership.
Measured outlook.
Let’s lean into the curve.
Still…No place I’d rather be.