using statistics for long term spatial planning: the ilembe 2050 regional spatial development plan...
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USING STATISTICS FOR LONG TERM SPATIAL PLANNING: THE ILEMBE 2050 REGIONAL
SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Tindall Kruger and Pravina Govender
13 September 2013
SUPPORTED BY:
StratPlanJeff McCarthy
Mott McDonaldGoba
ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY
THE 2050 PLAN – BASIC APPROACH
• The Ilembe Regional Spatial Development Plan is intended to provide long term spatial planning guidance to all stakeholders in Ilembe.
• The District is a recognised growth node in South Africa. For the purpose of the plan the Ilembe Team (supported by Iyer Urban Design Studio and StratPlan), based on a range of statistics, explored various growth scenarios for the District.
• The selection of the preferred scenario was influenced by socio-economic development trends and the proposed development trajectory reflected in the 2012 National Development Plan.
• The selected High Road Scenario was further developed to better understand future population profiles, housing demand, and economic development in the District.
• This understanding formed the basis for the preparation of short (2020), medium (2030) and long term (2050) spatial development plans.
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USING STATISTICS – THE APPROACH
• Step 1: Developing the Scenarios• Step 2: Unpacking the Scenarios• Step 3: Understanding the Implications• Step 4: Determining the Spatial Impact• Step 5: Developing the Plan
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Assumptions:• The economy stagnates
growing at between 1-2%
• HIV/AIDS continue to have major impact
• New urban / housing development limited
Assumptions:• The economy grows at
between 3-5% • Neighbouring areas low
growth rates (in-migration)• The impact of HIV/AIDS on
population growth has been significantly reduced
• New urban / housing development
STEP 1 - DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS
Assumptions:• The economy grows at
between 5-7% for an extended period
• In-migration from neighbouring countries and Districts as a result of economic growth
• As per previous
SCENARIO 1LOW ROAD SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3
HIGH ROAD
1% POPULATION GROWTH PA
Implications:• Current growth rates
maintained
2% POPULATION GROWTH PA
Implications:• Above average
population growth rates
3% POPULATION GROWTH PA /
5% ECON. GROWTH
Implications:• High population growth
rates
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STEP 2 – UNPACKING THE SCENARIOS
2010 2030 2050 -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000 5
77,3
60
704
,489
859
,610
594
,680
883
,663
1,3
13,0
76
612
,342
1,1
05,9
58
1,9
97,4
84
OVERALL POPULATION GROWTH SCENARIOS2010 to 2050
Scenario 1 - 1% growth pa Scenario 2 - 2% growth pa Scenario 3 - 3% growth pa
YEARS
NUM
BER
OF
PEO
PLE
Sc 3: Nearly 4 times the current
population by 2050
Sc 2: Double the current population
Sc 1: Approx. 300k increase
Sc 3: Double the current population
by 2030
Note: In the period mid-1990 to mid-2000s RSAs nine major cities grew at a rate of 1.92% 5
2050
2030
2010
- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000
91,851
91,851
91,851
364,678
298,870
244,937
1,540,955
715,237
275,554
2010 to 2050 RURAL AND URBAN GROWTH
Urban Rural (Current) Rural Scattered
A further 1.2m people to be
accommodated in urban areas (3.9% growth over term)
A further 120k people to be
accommodated in rural areas
(1% growth, not considering backlog)
Scattered rural population remains stagnant or decline
(0% growth)
TOTAL POPULATION 2010 Population 612,342 2030 Population 1,105,958 2050 Population 1,997,484
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STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS
STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS
SOME ASSUMPTIONS FOR ILEMBE:• In 40 years the current 0-20 year old will be the 40-60 group• Fertility rates will decrease and in-migration will increase• HIV/AIDS will continue to impact more on current 20-40 group,
as well as on 0-20 group• Male / female distribution will become more equal (currently 45:55 in some areas)
THREE PATTERNS OF POPULATION CHANGE
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INFORMING THE THINKING
Declining fertility rates
Increasing crude death rates
(per 1 000 of population)
(Substantially)
lower life expectancy
An ageing population
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STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS
0 - 10
11- 20
21 - 30
31 - 40
41 - 50
51 - 60
61 - 70
71 - 80
81 - above
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
-13.28
-12.00
-7.74
-5.11
-3.54
-2.53
-1.44
-0.68
-0.19
13.20
12.41
8.76
6.60
4.66
3.41
2.51
1.46
0.47
2007 POPULATION PYRAMID (560 380 people – 53.5% female)
%MALE % FEMALE
Percent
Age
Clas
s
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
-10.00
-10.50
-9.50
-7.00
-5.00
-4.00
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
10.00
10.50
9.50
7.00
4.50
3.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
2050 POPULATION PYRAMID(1 997 484 people – 49.5% female)
%MALE % FEMALE
Percent
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AGE MALE FEMALE TOTAL
0 - 10 199,748 199,748 399,497
11- 20 209,736 209,736 419,472
21 - 30 189,761 189,761 379,522
31 - 40 139,824 139,824 279,648
41 - 50 99,874 89,887 189,761
51 - 60 79,899 69,912 149,811
61 - 70 39,950 39,950 79,899
71 - 80 29,962 29,962 59,925
81 + 19,975 19,975 39,950
TOTAL 1,008,729 988,755 1,997,484
STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS
2050 POPULATION IN AGE CATEGORIES
2007 205026% 20%24% 21%17% 19%12% 14%
8% 10%6% 8%4% 4%2% 3%1% 2%
100% 100%
DISTRIBUTION
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STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (HOUSING)
House or brick structure (separate)
Flat in block
Town/cluster/etc house
Traditional dwelling
Informal dwelling (settlement)
Workers hostel
Room/flatlet on shared
House/flat/room in back yard
Informal in back yard
Other
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
39%
4%
1%
34%
9%
6%
3%
2%
2%
0%
2007 % HOUSING TYPE (124 526 units)HOUSING TYPETOTAL 2050 HOUSING
NEEDUNITS TO BE PROVIDED PER ANNUM
Other -
-
Informal in back yard -
-
House/flat/room in back yard
-
-
Room/flatlet on shared 2,628 Existing
Workers hostel 2,628 Existing
Informal dwelling (settlement) 10,513 Existing
Traditional dwelling 52,565 Existing
Town/cluster/etc house 63,078 62,169 1,554
Flat in block 78,848 73,592 1,840
House or brick structure (separate) 315,392 266,325 6,658
TOTAL 525,654 401,128 10,052 Note: Household size: 3.8 people0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
60%
15%
12%
10%
2%
1%
1%
2050 % HOUSING TYPE (525 654 units)
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STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (ECONOMIC)
SECTOR ILEMBE 2010
2050 5% GROWTH
Manufacturing R 2,987 R 20,909
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services
R 2,033 R 11,536
Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation
R 1,519 R 7,931
Agriculture R 1,008 R 7,210
Transport, storage and communication
R 738 R 6,489
General government R 965 R 4,326
Electricity, gas and water R 95 R 3,605
Tourism R 3,605
Construction R 290 R 2,884
Community, social and personal services
R 521 R 2,884
Mining and quarrying R 85 R 721
TOTAL R 10,241 R 72,099
GVA IN R’000,000
Mining and quarrying
Community, social and personal services
Construction
Tourism
Electricity, gas and water
General government
Transport, storage and communication
Agriculture
Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services
Manufacturing
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
1%
4%
4%
5%
5%
6%
9%
10%
11%
16%
29%
2010 AND 2050 GVA CONTRIBUTION PER SECTOR
2050 GVA CONTRIBUTION 2010 GVA CONTRIBUTION
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STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (ECONOMIC)
MANUFACTURING EXAMPLE:
• 7 076 ha industrial land generates R31 billion in eThekwini (R4.4 million per hectare)
• 4 752 ha industrial land will generate R20.9 billion in iLembe
• Current supply in Ilembe is 807 ha• Additional demand for 2050 is 3 954 ha
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STEP 5 – THE PLAN (EXISTING)
Existing Denser Development is shown in BROWN
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STEP 5 – THE PLAN (SHORT TERM)
Short-TermDevelopment is shown in ORANGE
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STEP 5 – THE PLAN (MEDIUM TERM)
Medium-TermDevelopment is shown in YELLOW
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STEP 5 – THE PLAN (LONG TERM)
Long-TermDevelopment is shown in LIGHT YELLOW
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THE LESSONS LEARNT
• Using statistical analysis as a tool for long term spatial planning is essential as it introduces reality into the process (something that is often lacking in these processes)
• Accurately predicting the future is impossible, but starting from a solid information base increases the probability of getting it right
• The iLembe 2050 Plan provides decision makers with a firm foundation for guiding future spatial development
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