using seeyou for soaring flight analysis gps-trace based flight analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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Using SeeYou for Soaring Flight Analysis
GPS-trace based flight analysis
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Real Question: How I do become a better cross-country glider pilot
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Agenda
• Overview SeeYou capabilities
• Quick review of theoretical underpinnings of X-country flight optimization
• Example of competitive analysis of G-Cup flights on May 19th, 2003
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Overview SeeYou Capabilities
• Turnpoint Database Management– Importing/creating new turnpoints– Modifying/deleting turnpoints
• Task Database Management– Importing tasks/creating new tasks– Modifying/deleting tasks
• GPS Trace Analysis– Importing GPS traces (connection wizzard)– Analyzing flights
• 2-D flight analysis– Single flight– Multiple flights– Synchronization– Customizing screen
• 3-D flight analysis– Single flight– Multiple flight– How to move about
• Barograph-type analysis of flight parameters– Cross-matching of parameters
• Statistical Analysis– Info Available– Selections
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• Quick review of theoretical underpinnings of X-country flight optimization– MacCready (deterministic)– Mathar (stochastic)– Cochrane (stochastic)
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MacCready Theory• Q: How fast should I fly based on known lift conditions ahead of me in order to minimize
time from A to B when my altitude is unlimited?• Answer: Classic speed-to-fly (MacCready) theory – provides explicit interthermal cruise
speed and implicit rule, in which thermals to climb
A BDistance s
Net lift l
lv
vpss
v
st
target
sink/liftairmass alintertherm/)(
targetB to A
target
vcruise
polarsink
vtarget
polarsink ps at
vtarget
Net lift l in next thermal +/-inthermal
airmass sink/lift
Cruise time to next thermal
Time spent regaining altitude in thermal
Two key constraints of MacCready theory:• Deterministic model, based on known net lift l – which in reality is unknown• Doesn’t account for limited altitude
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Constraint 1: Uncertain lift – R. Mathar, Technical Soaring Oct 1996
• Q: How fast should I fly based on unknown lift conditions ahead of me in order to minimize time from A to B?
• Answer: If there is a distribution of expected lift set the MacCready ring (or equivalent device) to the harmonic mean rather than the arithmetic mean (=straight average)
Mathematics:
Practice:
l
1E
v
vpss
v
s
lv
vpss
v
sEE[t
target
sink/liftairmass alintertherm/)(
target
target
sink/liftairmass alintertherm/)(
targetB to A
target
target]
Key insight• Provides theoretical underpinning for common sense strategy to fly a little
more on the cautious side based on uncertainty
Lift distributionLift
(knots) ProbabilityMacCready
SettingCruise Speed
(LS-8 dry)
Cruise Time for 10 nm
(min)
Time to climb (min)
Total Time
Outcome A: 1 1/3 4 76 7.9 16.5 24.3Outcome B: 4 1/3 4 76 7.9 4.1 12.0Outcome C: 7 1/3 4 76 7.9 2.4 10.2
Average 15.5
Outcome A: 1 1/3 2.15 69 8.6 14.1 22.7Outcome B: 4 1/3 2.15 69 8.6 3.5 12.2Outcome C: 7 1/3 2.15 69 8.6 2.0 10.7
Average 15.2
Calculation of average speed flying according to MacCready theory using the arithmetic mean
Calculation of average speed flying according to MacCready theory using the harmonic mean
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Constraint 2: Limited Altitude – R. Mathar, 1996
• Q: What is the best strategy in order to minimize time from A to B given variable known lift conditions and limited altitude?
• Answer: Depends on glider performance and the altitude available. With limited glider performance and/or limited altitude the weakest lift needed to get around the task is dominant in determining optimum speed-to-fly
Example:
Key insight• Provides theoretical underpinning for common sense strategy to fly a little
more on the cautious side with limited altitude
A B
Ground
2 knots 6 knots 2 knots
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Combining the Constraints – J. Cochrane, 1999
• Q: What is the best strategy in order to minimize time from A to B given uncertain lift conditions and limited altitude?
• Answer: No closed form solution. Numerical investigation yields insights:Confirmation of standard McCready theory:• Set McCready ring (Speed-to-fly computer)• Fly best speed when lift below setting• Circle, if above settingAdditional insights relative to McCready theory:• Lower the setting as you get lower• Increase setting with altitude• Use setting well below best climb of day• Start final glides low & aggressive, end conservativeDeficiencies:• Thermals assumed static (daytime & height variability)• Information driven discrete strategies (clouds, topography) • Competitive dynamics (game theory, scoring asymmetries)• Wind, ballast options etc.
Key insight:Common sense is confirmed; implementation requires a statistical mindset when flying; real life too complicated for theory
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• Example of competitive analysis of G-Cup flights on May 19th, 2003
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A beautiful day…the weather on May 19th, 2002 9 completions to analyze1K2, B21 (2 flights), DRT, FD2, PX, SM, TB, TUP
Lift as a function of local time
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10:00:00 11:00:00 12:00:00 13:00:00 14:00:00 15:00:00 16:00:00 17:00:00
Daytime (local)
Ave
rag
e L
ift
Rec
ord
ed (
kts)
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Early bird, doesn’t catch the worm……but potentially gets to complete the G-Cup twice in a day!
Dependence of Speed achieved on Start Time
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00
Task Start Time (local)
Avg
Sp
eed
(m
ph
)
The Pros leave at ~1:30 pm…
…with a few newcomers
painting thermals on coursefor them
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Rush, ΔΣ (=Delta Echo)!
Dependence of Speed Achieved on Interthermal Cruise
40
50
60
70
55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Average Interthermal Cruise Speed (local)
Tas
k S
pe
ed
(m
ph
)
High Interthermal speed is not sufficient
for success…
…but beginners might take heart and lower
that nose…
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Dependence of Speed Achieved on Interthermal Cruise Speed Variability
45
50
55
60
65
70
0 5 10 15 20
Interthermal Speed Variability (mph)
Ach
ieve
d T
ask
Sp
eed
(m
ph
)MacCready alright…
Too much of a good thing…is a
bad thing…
…especially when easy does it!
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Dependence of L/D Achieved on Interthermal Cruise Speed Variability
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20
Interthermal Speed Variability (mph)
Ach
ieve
d L
/D...but in modesty lies wisdom indeed!
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Time well spent…?Composition of Task Time
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Time Circled (min)
Time in Straight & Level
Avg Spd (mph)
Circling for lift is so 20th century…
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Scaling new heights
Composition and Amount of Altitude Gains Needed
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Alt
itu
de
(m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Task
Sp
eed
(m
ph
)
Height gain in straight f light (m)Height gain circling (m)Avg Spd (mph)
Low energy consumption is the name of
the game, even when
energy is free
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Summary of Relevant statistics
Comp ID GliderAvg Spd
(mph)Start Time
LocalRelative Detours
Height Gain Circled (m)
Avg Climb (knots)
B21 -2 ASW 24 68.4 13:29 1.02 3,630 5.2
TB ASW 28 66.1 13:24 1.03 4,620 5.1
PX - normalized Scimitar 64.4 13:09 1.06 5,291 5.2
TUP LS-3 60.9 15:10 1.06 6,076 4.8
DRT LS-3 52.1 12:25 1.08 6,290 3.9
B21 ASW 24 51.5 10:37 1.09 5,620 3.8
1K2 LS-3 50.5 12:58 1.04 6,043 2.9
SM - normalized Kestrel 49.3 13:09 1.06 7,050 3.1
FD2 LS-3 46.7 13:18 1.06 5,519 3.1
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00
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Summary of Relevant statistics 2
Comp ID
Time Circling
(min)
Time in Straight &
LevelTotal Time
Height gain in straight flight
(m) Avg L/D
Avg Cruise Speed (knots)
StdDev Speed
Average Height
B21 -2 0:22 1:45 2:08 4,450 48 74 10 1,201
TB 0:29 1:43 2:12 3,521 40 76 11 1,317
PX - normalized 0:32 1:43 2:16 5,510 38 79 13 1,437
TUP 0:41 1:42 2:23 3,996 34 79 16 1,535
DRT 0:52 1:56 2:48 3,552 36 71 10 1,473
B21 0:48 2:02 2:50 4,260 47 68 7 1,127
1K2 1:07 1:45 2:53 3,118 35 75 7 1,264
SM - normalized 1:14 1:43 2:57 4,578 35 76 13 1,326
FD2 0:57 2:10 3:07 3,202 39 59 3 1,226
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00
Av
g S
pe
ed
(m
ph
)