USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL

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USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL. WORLD WIDE CHEMICAL CONFERENCE JUNE, 2000. OPERATION DOUBLE STEAL. FUTURE USE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT LESSONS ARE DRAWN FROM HISTORY - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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USING HISTORY TO SHAPE THE FUTURE -- OPERATION DOUBLE STEALWORLD WIDE CHEMICAL CONFERENCEJUNE, 2000OPERATION DOUBLE STEALFUTURE USE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS WILL DEPEND ON WHAT LESSONS ARE DRAWN FROM HISTORYTO USE THESE WEAPONS, ONE MUST KNOW THE EFFECT THEY HAVE HAD IN THE PASTCONSIDER THE BALCK AND THE SPANISH FLUOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE BLACK DEATHEUROPE BEFORE THE PLAGUETHE RISE OF CITIESTHE RISE OF COMMERCETHE SIEGE OF KAFFATHE USE OF BIO WARFARE IN THE MIDDLE AGESTHE DISEASE IS SPREAD BY OXCART AND SHIPOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE BLACK DEATHTHE FERTILE GROUND OF EUROPETHE LACK OF PREPARATIONLACK OF MEDICAL KNOWLEDGEA TENDENCY TOARD HYSTERIATHE PLAGUE TAKES HOLD -- GOD ABANDONS EUROPETHE MECHANICS OF DISPOSALOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE BLACK DEATHENTIRE VILLAGES WIPED OUTALL SORTS OF REMEDIES WERE TRIEDSOCIAL ORDER BROKE DOWNMENTALLY ILL PEOPLE, THOSE WITH HANDICAPS, ANIMALS WERE ATTACKED ANDKILLED -- THEY WERE BLAMEDOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE BLACK DEATHTHE COST IN LIVES30% OF EUROPE DIEDCIVILIZATION WS SET BACK A GENERATION OR MORESOCIAL ORDER AND COMMERCE BADLY DISRUPTEDIT WAS PREVENTABLE IF EUROPE HAD KNOWN THE CAUSEOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE BLACK DEATHEVENTUALLY THE DISEASE BURNED ITSELF OUTRE-OCCURRED IN EUROPE FOR OVER A DECADE AT IRREGULAR INTERVALSWHAT STOPPED THE PLAGUE WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETTER SANITARY CONDITIONS OPERATION DOUBLE STEALHISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNINGTHE PLAUGE EPENDED ON UNHYGENIC CONDITIONS -- CONDITIONS LARGELY ERADICATEDDOCTORS CAN DETECT THE PLAGUE AND TREAT ITTHE PLAUGE IS A RARITY NOWUNIT 731 TIRED TO WEAPONIZE ITOPERATION DOUBLE STEALHISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNINGTHE PLAGUE WOULD HAVE TO BE ENGINEERED AS A WEAPONRUSSIANS MAY HAVE BEEN DOING JUST THATTECHNOLOGY MAY HAVE BEEN SHARED WITH OTHERSUSE OF NATURALLY OCCURRING VIRUS VITALOPERATION DOUBLE STEALHISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNINGTHE PLAGUE OCCURRED 5 CENTURIES AGOCITIZENS HAVE NO RECENT MEMORY TO ALARM THEMNO ONE FEELS THREATENEDBUT WE HAVE A MORE RECENT PLAGUE TO PROVIDE SOME ALARM -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917OPERATION DOUBLE STEALA MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUEBEGAN AT FORT RILEY, KANSASLARGE MANURE PILE BURNED AND WIND CARRIED ASHES ALL OVER THE POSTNEXT DAY, SOLDIERS STARTED COMING DOWN WITH THE FLUARMY PANICKED -- SENT TROOPS OVER TO EUROPEOPERATION DOUBLE STEALA MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917ORIGINS OF THE PLAGUETHEY BROUGHT THE DISEASE WITH THEMPEOPLE IN EUROPE BEGAN TO COME DOWN TITH THE DISEASEFLU SPREAD TO THE GERMANS, AND THEN MOVED EAST BY STATESIN FACT, THE DISEASE MOVED AROUND THE WORLD AND RE-ENTERED THE U.S. THROUGH THE WEST COASTOPERATION DOUBLE STEALA MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDERHUNDREDS OF PEOPLE AFFECTED -- WHOLE FAMILIESSPREAD RAPIDLY THROUGH THE POPULATION BY CONTACTPEOPLE DIED WITHIN A FEW DAYS FROM THE ONSET OF THE SYMPTOMSOPERATION DOUBLE STEALA MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDERMORGUES RAN OUT OF ROOMPEOPLE CEASED TO GO OUTUSIDE AND INTERACT WITH OTHERSSCHOOLS AND STORES WERE CLOSEDTHE ECONOMIC LIFE OF THE NATION BEGAN TO GRIND TO A HALTPEOPLE BEGAN TO BLAME OTHERS OPERATION DOUBLE STEALA MORE RECENT HISTORICAL EXAMPLE -- THE SPANISH FLU OF 1917NEAR BREAKDOWN OF SOCIAL ORDERPOPULATION MIGRATED TO THE COUNTR FROM THE CITIY AND MERELY SPRED THE FLUPEOPLE TOOK UP RELIGION AS THEY HAD DURING THE BLACK DEATHFAMILIES LOST SIGNIFICANT MEMBERS ONE AFTER THE OTHERAS QUICKLY AS IT AROSE, THE FLU DISAPPEAREDJUST AT THE RIGHT TIME -- SOCIETY WAS BEGINNING TO COME APARTOPERATION DOUBLE STEALHISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNINGTHE FLU HAS NOT NORMALLY BEEN LISTED AS A POTENTIAL WEAPONHISTORICAL EVIDENCE THAT IT CAN RAVAGE A POPULATIONFLU OCCURS NATURALLY AND ALMOST EVERY YEARAN EASY WEAPON TO TEST -- ITS SO NATURAL TO HAVE ITOPERATION DOUBLE STEALHISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNINGFLU CAN BE UPGRADED TO BE MORE MORE LETHALIF A KILLER FLU WAS USED, SOCIAL ORDER AND MEDICAL FACILITIES WOULD BREAK DOWNWHO WOULD KNOW THIS TYPE OF FLU WAS A WEAPONOPERATION DOUBLE STEALHISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNINGFLU IS A PERFECT WEAPON BECAUSE IT SPREADS SO RAPIDLY AND ITS POINT OF ORIGIN CAN EASILY BE MASKED BIOWEAPONS HAVE NOT BEEN USED SINCE 1945 BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR RETALIATIONOPERATION DOUBLE STEALHISTORICAL LESSONS FOR OPERATIONAL PLANNINGINFRASTRUCTURE OF PREPARATIONWEAPON MUST BE IDENTIFIED EARLYDISEASE MUST BE KEPT WITHIN PARAMETERSCENTRAL DIRECTION TO FIGHT THE DISEASE AND ITS SPREADCIVIL AUTHORITIES MUST BE PREPARED FOR THIS TYPE OF CONTINGENCYFIRST RESPONDERS MUST IDENTIFY WHAT IT IS AND SPREAD ALARMOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGEHISTORY SHOWS IF BIOWEAPON IS FULLY DPLOYED, THE DAMAGE CAN BE CATASTOPHICMUST THINK OUT OF THE BOX -- NORMAL TERMS OF REFERENCE DO NOT APPLYIF WE FORGET JUST ONE, IT IS ALL OVERNEVER ASSUME THAT THE ENEMY WILL USE LETHAL -- THERE IS A DEFINITE PLACE FOR NONETHAL CHEMICALS AND BIO AGENTSOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE MOST IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE OF THE BLACK DEATH, THE SPANISH FLU, AND OTHER PLAGUES IN HISTORY CAN GIVE A NATION THE INFORMATION IT NEEDS TO PLAN A BOLD AND SWIFT STROKE TO CHANGE THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WORLDITS ALL ABOUT POWEROPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE USE OF THE DOUBLE STEALIN BASEBALL, WHEN TWO RUNNERS ARE ON BASE AND THE 3RD BASE COACH SIGNALS FOR A DOUBLE STEAL, THEY RUN ON THE NEXT PITCH TO GET INTO SCORING POSITIONYOU CAN GET TWO RUNS INSTEAD OF ONE BY RISKING ONE OR BOTH RUNNERSA HIGH RISK, BUT THE PAYOFF IS BIGOPERATION DOUBLE STEALOPERATIONAL DOUBLE STEALRATIONALE: THE CHANGING OF THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE PACIFIC RIMBRINGS TOGETHER THREE OLD COMRADES -- CHINA, NORTH KOREA, AND RUSSIATHE STAKES ARE ENORMOUSPOWER COMES TO THOSE WHO DAREOPERATION DOUBLE STEALNOTE: THIS SCENARIO IS FICTIONBUT, REMEMBER TWENTY THOUSAND LEAGUES UNDER THE SEASTHE SUBMARINE NAUTILUS WAS FICTION THEN, BUT THAT TYPE OF A SUBMARINE IS COMMON NOWFICTION CAN BECOME REALITYOPERATION DOUBLE STEALGIVENS:NORTH KOREA, RUSSIA, AND CHINA HAVE LARGE AND CAPABLE BIOWEAPONS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIESNORTH KOREAS GOAL IS TO REUNITE THE SOUTHCHINA WANTS TO TAKE OVER TAIWANBOTH CANNOT REACH THEIR DREAMS WHILE THE U.S. CAN INTERVENEOPERATION DOUBLE STEALGIVENS:CURRENT U.S. POLICY IS CLEAR -- USE CHEMICAL OR BIOWEAPONS AGAINST US, AND RETALIATION WILL BE MASSIVE AND MAYBE NUCLEARPROBLEM: HOW TO DEVELOP A PLAN USING CHEMICAL AND BIOAGENTS THAT WOULD RENDER THE U.S. HARMLESS WITHOUT RISKING NUCLEAR EXCHANGEOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHERE IS A WAYPLANNING CYCLE UNDERSTANDINGS:TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA MUST BE ATTACKED AND OVERRUN BEFORE U.S. CAN INTERVENE IN STRENTHPRESENT U.S. WITH FAIT ACCOMPLI AND GIVE U.S. LEADERSHIP A TERRIBLE CHOICEOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHERE IS A WAYPLANNING CYCLE UNDERSTANDINGS:WE HAD TO DESTROY THE VILLAGE TO SAVE IT SYNDROMENO PRESIDENT SHOULD EVER BE FACED WITH THIS TYPE OF A DECISIONOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE RIDDLE OF TAIWANCAPABLE OF DEFENDING ITSELF, BUT RELATIONS WITH PRC ARE DELICATE ABOUT PROVIDING MILITARY HARDWARECHINA IS BUILDING UP TECHNOLOGY TO MARCH ANY POTENTIAL FOEGEOGRAPHY OF TWIWAN LIMITS WHAT PLA CAN DO TO SEIZE ISLANDCHINESE NAVY DOES NOT HAVE AMPHIBIOUS FORCES FOR FULL SCALE LANDINGSOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE RIDDLE OF TAIWANANY ATTEMPT TO SEIZE THE ISLAND WOULD HAVE TO TAKE LESS THAN 3 DAYSIT WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERWHELMING IN SCOPE AND POWERTIED INTO THE IDEA OF THE INDIRECT APPROACHOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE INDIRECT APPROACHUSE OF INFORMATION WARFARE TO BLIND DEFENSESUSE OF BIOAGENTS TO DESTROY COMPUTERS USE OF SIMILAR AGENTS TO DISRUPT TELEPHONE, RADIO, AND TELEVISIONWAY IS PREPARED BY EPIDEMIC OF A POWERFUL FLUOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE INDIRECT APPROACHTHE FLU IS SPRAYED OVER THE ISLAND BY STEALTH GLIDERS CONTROLLED BY THE PRCWHEN FLU TAKES FULL EFFECT INFORMATION WARFARE IS INITIATEDSPECIAL FORCES USING NON-LETHAL CHEMICAL AGENTS TAKES OVER KEY COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMSOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE INDIRECT APPROACHUSING LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT, WEAPONS AND VEHICLE PARKS ARE SPRAYED WITH IRRITANT CHEMICAL AGENTS THAT WILL MAKE THEIR USE DIFFICULT AND REQUIRE DECONTAMINATIONTHE FIFTH COLUMN -- WHO HAVE BEEN IMMUNIZED TO THE FLU WILL THEN TAKE OVER TV AND RADIO TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF EDUCATION OF THE PUBLICOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE NEUTRALIZATION OF BIG BROTHERUSING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND INFORMATION WARFAREU.S. SATELLITES ARE TEMPORARILY DISABLED -- THIS WILL APPEAR TO BE A NATURAL GLITCHU.S. MILITARY PERSONNEL -- PARTICULARLY USAF, NAVAL, AND FAST DEPLOYING U.S. ARMY GROUND FORCES WILL COME DOWN WITH THE FLUOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE NEUTRALIZATION OF BIG BROTHERUSING AGENT IN PLACE ASSETS AND INFORMATION WARFAREPSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE WILL HAVE BEGUN EARLIER WITH ARTICLES INDICATING THE THEME WHY FIGHT FOR TAIWANNON-LETHAL BIO AGENTS WILL BE USED TO NEUTALIZE ANY FAST DEPLOYING U.S. FORCE, PARTICULARLY USAF AIRCRAFTOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE FALL OF TAIWANLANDING FORCE OF SPECIAL TROOPS WOULD BE HIDDEN IN SPECIFICALLY CONSTRUCTED SHIPS -- Erskine Childers: THE RIDDLE OF THE SANDSLAND AT KEY TAIWANESE PORTSTROOPS WILL BE DRESSED SIMILARLY TO NATIONALIST FORCESGOVERNMENT OF LOCAL TAIWANESE WITH PRC CONNECTIONS WILL BE NAMED, AND THEY WILL CALL FOR CALM FROM THE POPULACEOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE FALL OF TAIWANCHINESE MISSILES WILL COMMAND THE FORMOSA STRAITSCHINESE KILO CLASS SUBS WILL PATROL OFF TAIWAN TO INTERCEPT AND STOP ANY U.S. NAVY TASK FORCETAIWAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY RESTORED UNDER PLA CONTROLOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREANORTH KOREA USES A SIMILAR SYSTEM TO TAKE SOUTH KOREABUT, THERE ARE U.S. TROOPS STATIONED IN SOUTH KOREA PLAN TO DEAL WITH THEMOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREAU.S. TROOPS ARE LOCATED IN ENCLAVES AND NOT AMONG THE GENERAL POPULATIONTHEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED WITH ATTACKS USING NON-LETHAL FLU, AND DEGRADING CHEMICAL AGENTS FOR WEAPONS AND VEHICLE PARKSSINCE ROKA AND U.S. HAVE C&C AREAS, THEY WOULD BE NEUTRALIZED USING NON-LETHAL AGENTS AND SPECIAL OPERATIONS UNITSOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREATHE NORTH KOREAN ARMY IS REPUTED TO HAVE AMONG THE BEST TRAINED SPECIAL FORCES IN THE WORLDTHEY HAVE BEEN TESTING THE DEFENSES OF SOUTH KOREA FOR DECADESTHEY KNOW WHERE THE HOLES AREOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREAHERES HOW ITS DONECRIPPLE C&C SYSTEM WITH USE OF NON-LETHAL CHEMICALS AND BIO-AGENTSACTIVATION OF TH COLUMN FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL AND DISRUPTIVE OPERATIONSINFACT THE S. KOREAN POPULATION WITH POWERFUL BUT NON-LETHAL FLU VIRUSUSE POWERFUL NON LETHAL BIO-CHEMICAL AGENTS TO FORCE DECONTAMINATION OF VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENTOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREAHERES HOW ITS DONEUSE OF EMPUSE OF NKPA SPEICAL FORCES -- SNIPER BRIGADES FOR DISRUPTOR MISSIONS AND SEIZURE OF KEY POSITION AND TERRAINUSE OF TUNNELS NOT DISCOVERED TO MOVE BALANCE OF STRKING FORCE INTO SOUTH KOREAOPERATION DOUBLE STEALTHE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOUBLE STEAL -- THE FALL AND OCCUPATION OF SOUTH KOREAHERES HOW ITS DONENORTH KOREA SEEDS SKIES AROUND SOUTH KOREA WITH BIO AGENTS TO DISRUPT INCOMING U.S. REINFORCMENTS -- BY PLANES. KOREAN AIR BASES SPRAYED WITH DISRUPTIVE AGENTS TO PRECLUDE THEIR IMMEDIATE USEOPERATION DOUBLE STEALU.S. RESPONSEAS IN TAIWAN SITUATION. ONLY POSSIBILITY IS A BREAK-IN OPERATIONTHOUSANDS OF U.S. LIVES AT STAKE, AND TO TAKE BACK S. KOREA WOULD INVOLVE DEATHS OF THOUSANDS OF KOREANNO U.S. PRESIDENT SHOULD HAVE TO MAKE THIS DECISIONOPERATION DOUBLE STEALLESSONS FOR THE FUTURENEED TO DEVELOP MEASURES TO COUNTER DISRUPTOR WEAPONS AGAINST C&C AND INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURECONSIDERATION NEED TO BE GIVEN TO ALL CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS THAT ARE NOT LETHAL AND PROGRAMS DEVELOPED TO NEGATE THEIR EFFECTOPERATION DOUBLE STEALLESSONS FOR THE FUTUREIF WE IGNORE THE LESSONS OF THE PAST, THESE NEW TYPE OF WEAPONS CAN REDUCE AMERICAS MILITARY FROM THE BEST TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE IN THE WORLD, TO USING BOWS AND ARROWSSURRENDER MIGHT BE OUR ONLY OPTION