Using Google Trends Data

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

October 1, 2014

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Google Trends

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“Jewish” Search Rate

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“Mormon” Search Rate

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Huge Advantage of Google Search Data

Social desirability bias

People lie to surveysPeople very honest on Google

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1. Cost of racism on black candidate.

Racist search rate, 2004-2007: 200 DMAs.

Difference between Obama and Kerry vote shares.

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1. Cost of racism on black candidate

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1. Cost of racism on black candidate

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1. Cost of racism on black candidate.

Conclusions1 Survey data: Racism cost Obama 1-2 % of vote.2 Google data: Racism cost Obama 3-5 % of vote.

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2. Predicting turnout (and possibly elections)

Searches for “vote” in October

Compared to 4 years earlier.

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NV

UT

MD

LA

ND

AR

SDWY

AK

MT FL

NH TN

NM

OH

ME

WV

ID

MN

OR

IA

OK

NC

HI

SC

KY

IN

AL

WI

TX

MI

PA

MA

WA

KSNE

CORI

GA

NJ

ILCT

MO

AZ

NY

MS−

.1−

.05

0.0

5.1

.15

∆ ln(T

urn

out R

ate

)

−.4 −.2 0 .2 .4∆ ln(Google Vote Search)

R2 = 0.21

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NV

UT

MD

LA

ND

AR

SD

WY

AK

MT

FL

NH

TN

NM

OH

ME

WV

IDMN

OR

IAOK

NC

HI

SC

KY

IN

AL

WI

TX

MI

PA

MA

WA

KS

NE

CO

RI

GA

NJ

IL

CT

MO

AZ

NY

MS

−.2

−.1

0.1

.2.3

ln(T

urn

out R

ate

)

−.5 0 .5 1∆ ln(Google Vote Search)

R2 = 0.43

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3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

Compare child maltreatment rates to exposure to recession.

Exposure to recession: Unemployment(2009+2010) -Unemployment(2006+2007)

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3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

AK

AL

AR

AZ

CACO

DC

DE

FL

GA

IA

IN

KS

KYMA

ME

MNMO

MS

MTNE

NH NM

NV

OK

OR

RI

SCSD

TX

UT

VA

VT

WA

WI

WV

−.6

−.4

−.2

0.2

.4

0 2 4 6 8 10∆ Unemployment Rate

t = −2.31

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3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

AL

AR

AZ

CO

CT

DC

DE

FL

GA

HI

IA IDIL

IN

KS

KY

LAMEMN

MOMT

ND

NE

NH

NJ

NM

NV

NY

OH

OK

ORPA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

VT

WA

WI

WV−2

−1

01

2∆

Fata

lity R

ate

0 2 4 6 8 10∆ Unemployment Rate

t = 1.74

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3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

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3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

AK

AL

AR

AZ

CO

CT

DC

FL

GA

HIIA

ID

IL

INKS

KY

LA

MA

MD

ME

MI

MN

MOMS

MT

NC

ND

NE

NH

NJ

NMNV

NY

OH

OK

OR

PA

RISCSD

TN

TX UT

WA

WIWV

WY

−.3

−.2

−.1

0.1

∆ ln(G

oogle

)

0 2 4 6 8 10∆ Unemployment Rate

t = 3.03

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3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

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3. Effect of recession on child maltreatment

Conclusions1 CPS data: Great Recession decreased child abuse.2 Google data (+ mortality data): Great Recession increased

child abuse.

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Conclusions

Anonymous, aggregate Google searches excellent new data forsocial scientists.

Google searches particularly valuable for socially sensitivetopics.

More of my work: sethsd.com

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