Jacob Gross*1 Tomoaki Muira1 Jonathan Deenik2 John Yanagida1

Russell Yost2

Using GIS to Evaluate Agricultural Land Suitability in Hawaii and the Impacts of

Regional Climate Change

1Dept. of Natural Resource and Environmental Management (NREM)2Dept. of Tropical Plant and Soil SciencesCollege of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources (CTAHR)

PROJECT BACKGROUND

CTAHR Database & GeoportalCentralize data relevant to

natural resource management in Hawaii

Organize information to support land use evaluation and decision making

Provide user access to information

2

Users

CTAHRDatabase

Local Server Geoportal

PROBLEM & RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

How will climate change impact agricultural land suitability in Hawaii?

Temperature and RainfallCrop specific:

Coffee Macadamia, Papaya, Sweet potato, Cacao, Tea

GeoportalApplication

(late 21st century)

Research Objective: Compare present land suitability vs. future land suitability

2013 HI Rainfall Atlas

1978-2007 (250m)

Specific Crop

Mean Total Rainfall(Monthly or Annual)

Min & Max Temp (Monthly)

Temperature Dataset

1971-2000 (500m)

SSURGO

Variable Size Polygons

SlopeUSGS DEM

(10m)

Soil DrainageSoil DepthSoil pH

Minimum Score

METHODS

2080-2099

Evaluation procedure adapted from Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2011

Crop Ecological Requirements

Environmental Datasets (Rasters)

Suitability Map (Raster)

ArcGIS Python Script

METHODS

PRESENTFUTURE2080 - 2099

Suitability Score

Coffee

RESULTS

Major CropLocations

Core CropLands

Melrose and Delparte 2012

North Kohala

Waimea

Hamakua

North Hilo

South Hilo

Keeau

Pahoa

KauOcean View

Kona

RESULTS

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10

Current Coffee Fields

Pahoa

Keaau

South Hilo

North Hilo

Hamakua

Waimea

North Kohala

Kona

Ocean View

Kau

Weighted Mean Difference in Suitability Score (per hectare)

RESULTS

Conclusions

Future rainfall and temperature estimates support continued coffee production in the majority of established locations on the Big Island.

Coffee crops in Hilo, Puna, and Hamakua districts

could experience production limitations caused by increases in temperature and rainfall, especially if related problems already exist .

Traditional rain-fed systems on Hawai`I Sweet potato (`uala)Kagawa and Vitousek (2012) Evaluated rain-fed dryland

agriculture Leeward Kohala Field System (LKFS)

Production locations likely shifted seasonally Lower elevation = winter crops Upper elevation = spring and summer crops

SEASONALITY

Sweet Potato Optimal SeasonLeeward Kohala Field System

Sweet Potato Optimal SeasonLeeward Kohala Field System

Conclusions

GIS crop suitability model can provide decision support materials for Farmers & Planners:

System is adaptable Adjustments to crop requirements New environmental datasets Can be applied to crops not currently grown in Hawaii

Acknowledgements

Funding Source:Agribusiness Development Corporation - Hawaii State Dept. of Agriculture

Climate Change Projections:International Pacific Research CenterDr. Kevin Hamilton Dr. Chunxi Zhang

Coffee Extension Specialist:Dr. Skip Bittenbender -CTAHR

CTAHR GeoPortal IT:Nathan DormanElsie Kawahara http://gis.ctahr.hawaii.edu/

Sources Cited Giambelluca, Thomas W, Diaz, Henry F, & Luke, Mark SA. (2008).

Secular temperature changes in Hawai‘i. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(12).

Lauer, Axel, Zhang, Chunxi, Elison-Timm, Oliver, Wang, Yuqing, & Hamilton, Kevin. (2013). Downscaling of Climate Change in the Hawaii Region Using CMIP5 Results: On the Choice of the Forcing Fields*. Journal of Climate, 26(24).

Melrose, J, & Delparte, D. (2012). Hawai'i County Food Self-Sufficiency Baseline 2012 (G. a. E. S. Department, Trans.): University of Hawai'i at Hilo.

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, Jarvis, Andy, & Laderach, Peter. (2013). Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 170, 67-78.

Timm, Oliver, & Diaz, Henry F. (2009). Synoptic-statistical approach to regional downscaling of IPCC twenty-first-century climate projections: seasonal rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands. Journal of Climate, 22(16).

Timm, Oliver, Takahashi, Mami, Giambelluca, Thomas W, & Diaz, Henry F. (2013). On the relation between large scale circulation ‐pattern and heavy rain events over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent trends and future changes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(10), 4129-4141.

LAND SUITABILITY

1. Rainfall2. Temperature3. Soil Drainage4. Soil Depth5. Soil pH6. Slope

High Spatial Variability• Topography• Substrate Age• Climate

Natural EnvironmentalConditions

HAWAII CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS (Late 21st Century)

Temperature Increasing Temperatures (Lauer et al. 2013)

RCP4.5 (1.2 ˚- 2.9˚ C) RCP8.5 (2.3 ˚- 4.9˚ C)

Stronger warming at higher elevations (Giambelluca et al. 2008)

Rainfall Increase in overall rainfall (~5%) (Timm and Diaz 2009) Increased drought in drier areas (Timm et al. 2013) ↑summer precipitation ↓winter precipitation (Timm and Diaz 2009) Increased risk of widespread heavy rain events is low (Timm et al. 2013) *High uncertainty in rainfall estimates (Lauer et al. 2013)

Agricultural Suitability Classification in Hawaii1963-1972 LSB Hawaii Land Study Bureau

(University of Hawaii)

1957-1972 LCC Land Capability Classification – (USDA) 1977 ALISH Agricultural Lands of Importance to the State of

Hawaii – (USDA, Hawaii State Board of Agriculture)1978-1986 LESA Hawaii Land Evaluation and Site Assessment

(HI LESA Commission)

1986-2007 HNRIS Hawaii Natural Resources Information System – (CTAHR)

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-1000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Pahoa

CURRENTFUTURE

% Suitability

Hect

ares

RESULTS

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-1000

1000

2000

3000

Ka'u

CURRENTFUTURE

% Suitability

Hect

ares

RESULTS

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-1000

1000

2000

3000

4000

Kona

CURRENTFUTURE

% Suitability

Hect

ares

RESULTS