1. School of Geography
FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Using e-Research Tools for Micro-Level Social Simulation
Nick Malleson
University of Leeds

2. Outline
Introduction to micro-level social simulation

• Complexity / emergence
• 3. Microsimulation
• 4. Agent-based modelling

Population reconstruction and projection
The NeISS project
Crime simulation
Other work
Conclusion

5. Prediction: Emergence
The Need for Individual-Level Models (ILMs)
Individual-level models provide a natural description of the system
Emergence
Patterns at one level arising from lower level effects
Simple rules -> complex patterns
Not intended by the individuals
Examples from human systems?

6. Individual Level Models (ILMs)
Model from the bottom-up

• Natural description of the system under study

Range of ILM methodologies
Microsimulation

• Rule based systems
• 7. Retain diversity / uniqueness

Agent-Based Models (ABMs)

• Agents are unique entities in the model capable of self control and decision making
• 8. Strong emphasis on individual behaviour / psychology