Using Agri-Environmental Indicators in Policy: The

Canadian Experience

Greg Strain, DirectorAgri-Environmental Policy Bureau

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Achieving environmental sustainability in agriculture has become more complex than ever…

Environmental issues are not new to agriculture, but public scrutiny of environmental costs of agricultural production has been increasing: Water quality issues, pesticide run-offs, fish kills Restrictions on intensive livestock operations Increased consumer awareness of environmental standards of food production

Environmentally sustainable production is increasingly an issue at an international level. key to demonstrate Canada is meeting emerging international standards to

ensure continued market access.

Agriculture is also vulnerable to environmental problems Water shortages Invasive species

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There are many questions posed by policy decision-makers…

What key factors are affecting environmental performance of the sector, and how will it evolve?

What are the cost and benefits of current environmental trends?

What is the relationship between policies / programs and environmental health?

Which mix of policy and/or program measures is likely to achieve desired environmental outcomes with the most efficiancy?

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All decision-makers share a common need for environmental information…

Objective and reliable information Is the current environmental performance satisfactory Expected future evolution How is the performance likely to change in response to decisions they make

Historic approaches have focussed on economic information, and largely ignored environmental impacts Risk achieving economic goals at the expense of environmental objectives

Work is underway to develop and refine agri-environmental information and tools to integrate this information in decision-making Agri-Environmental Indicators Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling Agri-Environmental Valuation

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Agri-Environmental Indicators (AEIs)…

CanadaLand area: 909 million haFarm area: 67.5 million ha Cultivated land: 61 % Pastureland: 30 % Other land : 9 %Average farm area: 273 ha

CanadaLand area: 909 million haFarm area: 67.5 million ha Cultivated land: 61 % Pastureland: 30 % Other land : 9 %Average farm area: 273 ha

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Agri-Environmental Indicators (AEIs)…

General approach Risk-based models Integration of biophysical data (climate, soil, landscape) with land use and land

management data (remote sensing, surveys)

Criteria Policy relevant Science-based and objective Understandable and unambiguous to interpret Regionally responsive Feasible to obtain Sensitive to changes in land use and land management

Calculated at Soil Landscapes of Canada polygon level Scale 1:1,000,000 In Canada, there are over 3,000 SLCs with significant agricultural activity Typical size varies (10,000 to 1,000,000 ha) Model results can be extrapolated to broader scales

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Multidisciplinary approach Bring quantitative, science-based information into the policy debate Enable forward looking analysis to evaluate policy options and scenarios

Integrate economic model with environmental models Policy Model : CRAM (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model) Biophysical Models : Agri-Environmental Indicators

Assess various farm management scenarios relative to a Business as Usual (BAU) baseline

Generate information on Land use change for major activities Area of major crops Summerfallow and tillage practices Livestock numbers Economic impact on both producers and consumers

Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling

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Analytical Framework…

Changes in Resource Allocation vs. BAU• land use• cropping patterns• tillage practices• livestock numbers

Changes in Resource Allocation vs. BAU• land use• cropping patterns• tillage practices• livestock numbers

Policy Scenarios• select farm level actions for positive environmental impacts (BMPs)•select regions, commodities, costs, changes in productivity• determine realistic adoption rates

Policy Scenarios• select farm level actions for positive environmental impacts (BMPs)•select regions, commodities, costs, changes in productivity• determine realistic adoption rates

Policy Scenarios modelled in

CRAM

Policy Scenarios modelled in

CRAM

Economic Outcome

s

Economic Outcome

s

AEI Models:soil, water and

air quality; biodiversity

AEI Models:soil, water and

air quality; biodiversity

Biophysical data:• climate• soils

Biophysical data:• climate• soils

Environm.

Outcomes

Environm.

Outcomes

Policy process• quantitative assessment• trade-off analysis

Policy process• quantitative assessment• trade-off analysis

Economics and markets• Business as Usual

Economics and markets• Business as Usual

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A practical example: the Agriculture Policy Framework…

Under the APF, Canada’s Agriculture Ministers have agreed to: accelerate environmental action, covering all farms

achieve measurable and meaningful environmental goals in the areas of air, water, and soil quality, and biodiversity

Significant new resources have been committed to support the actions needed to meet these environmental goals

Ministers agreed on indicators, targets, timetables and approaches for environmental goals related to: air, water, soil, biodiversity and

farm environmental management

Integrated Economic/Environmental modeling used to set targets AEIs used over time to assess results

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High

Low Low High

Standard

T3

T2

T1

En

viro

nm

enta

l per

form

ance

Adoption of BMPs and Alternative Land Uses

A practical example: setting APF targets…

Beneficial on-farm action

Baseline

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A practical example: setting APF targets…

Needed an integrated analysis of expected environmental outcomes (all interconnected)

Soil Quality• erosion• soil carbon• nitrogen

Soil Quality• erosion• soil carbon• nitrogen

Water Quality• nitrogen• phosphorus• pesticides• pathogens

Water Quality• nitrogen• phosphorus• pesticides• pathogens

Air Quality• GHG (CO2, N2O,

CH4)• Ammonia, PM• Odour

Air Quality• GHG (CO2, N2O,

CH4)• Ammonia, PM• Odour

Biodiversity• habitat use• species at risk

Biodiversity• habitat use• species at risk

Nutrient Balance• carbon cycle• nitrogen cycle

Nutrient Balance• carbon cycle• nitrogen cycle

Farm Resource Management• land use • crops• livestock

Farm Resource Management• land use • crops• livestock

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A practical example: setting APF targets…

A suite of Agri-Environmental Indicators was selected, based on priorities and availability: Risk of soil erosion from water and wind

Residual Soil Nitrogen and Risk of water contamination from nitrogen

Soil Carbon and Greenhouse gas emissions

Biodiversity - wildlife habitat

Scenarios were selected for the analysis – potential changes in key driving factors (land use, farm management): Soil Management (increase conservation tillage, decrease summerfallow, increased use

of forage in rotations, conversion of marginal land to permanent cover)

Pasture Management (increase use of complimentary and rotational grazing)

Nutrient Management (better matching of N to crop requirements)

Livestock Management (improve management of protein in diets)

Shelterbelts and Plantation Forestry (increase use of forestry on marginal land)

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A practical example: setting APF targets…

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

GHG IROWCN(Que)

Residual N WaterErosion (Alta)

WindErosion(Sask.)

Biodiversity

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

GHG IROWCN(Que)

Residual N WaterErosion (Alta)

WindErosion(Sask.)

Biodiversity

National Summary of the Percentage Change in AEIsfrom 2008 BAU for Low, Medium and High Adoption Rates

National Summary of the Percentage Change in AEIsfrom 2008 BAU for Low, Medium and High Adoption Rates

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35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 1999 2010

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 1999 2010

Potential reductionsfrom Business as Usual (BAU) [5 to 20 Mt with

incentives]

Potential reductionsfrom Business as Usual (BAU) [5 to 20 Mt with

incentives]

Gap(6.5 Mt)

Gap(6.5 Mt)

Mt

CO

2e

BAU without sinksBAU without sinks

BAU with sinksBAU with sinks

6% below 19906% below 1990

A practical example 2: GHG reduction…

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Limitations of Analysis

Limited to management practices known to have beneficial environmental outcomes that are captured by existing models Data availability poses constraints in modeling

Spatial differences between CRAM and AEI models

Lack of farm level cost information

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Future Directions : Policy Analysis

Continue work on developing and improving the robustness of the models and quality of outputs Climate Change – Mitigation and Impact & Adaptation

Update / Refine APF targets

Build on previous success in influencing the policy debate Next generation of agri-environmental programming

Environmental Goods and Services

Strategic Environmental Assessments (e.g. WTO)

Develop the aspect of Agri-Environmental Valuation (economic valuation) Express biophysical environmental indicators or trends in dollars

Allow true cost-benefit analysis of policy options

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For more information…

Agri-Environmental Indicator Report (2005) www.agr.gc.ca/env/naharp-pnarsa

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Management Strategies on Environmental Indicators http://www.agr.gc.ca/spb/rad-dra/publications/isie/ise_e.pdf