usefulness of international dairy bull evaluations
DESCRIPTION
Usefulness of international dairy bull evaluations. Rex L. Powell Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD [email protected]. Interbull Formed. IDF and EAAP activities 1982 - Leningrad meeting 1983 - Interbull formed - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
20012001Interbull, August 2001 (1)
Usefulness of international Usefulness of international dairy bull evaluationsdairy bull evaluations
Rex L. PowellRex L. PowellAnimal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, [email protected]
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (2) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Interbull FormedInterbull Formed
IDF and EAAP activities
1982 - Leningrad meeting
1983 - Interbull formed
1988 - Became ICAR committee
1991 - Centre established
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (3) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Interbull CentreInterbull Centre
Site: Uppsala, Sweden
Responsibilities and activities: Steering committee sets policy General operations by staff Global service provider
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (4) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Interbull Evaluation ProcessInterbull Evaluation Process
National evaluations sent to Centre
MACE combines pedigree and national evaluation data
Estimated genetic correlations applied
Evaluations returned to countries on their own scale
Officiality responsibility of countries
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (5) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Countries Participating in ServiceCountries Participating in Service
0
5
10
15
20
25
No
. co
un
trie
s
Aug-94
Aug-94
Aug-95
Aug-95
Aug-96
Aug-96
Aug-97
Aug-97
Aug-98
Aug-98
Feb-99
Feb-99
Aug-99
Aug-99
Evaluation date
Sending Receiving
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (6) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Numbers of Countries per BullNumbers of Countries per Bull
94.6
3.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10
20
40
60
80
100
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Bu
lls
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+
Number of countries
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (7) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
QuestionQuestion
Do foreign data aid in prediction of future national evaluations?
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (8) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Study DesignStudy Design
NATIONALNATIONAL
1995
NATIONALNATIONAL
1999
Data Best Predictor?
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (9) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Study DesignStudy Design
NATIONALNATIONAL
NATIONALNATIONAL
1995 1999
r
SD
r
SD
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (10) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
DataData
February 1995 Interbull evaluations
National 1995 evaluations
National 1999 evaluations
Canada, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, USA
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (11) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
AnswersAnswers
Foreign data improved prediction
Improvement greatest for imported bulls
Interbull evaluations should be official
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (12) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Top 100 Bulls for Yield (USA)Top 100 Bulls for Yield (USA)Based on Official EvaluationsBased on Official Evaluations
Location Protein Fat MilkUSA 47 35 67NLD 23 29 7FRA 8 7 6ITA 1 1 1
DEU 3 11 5CAN 2 4 5DNK 3 2 2
Others 13 11 7
Top-100 Bulls with US Sires 65 49 89
Source: Interbull and domestic, February 2001
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (13) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Top 100 Bulls for Yield (NLD)Top 100 Bulls for Yield (NLD)Based on Official EvaluationsBased on Official Evaluations
Location Protein Fat MilkUSA 24 13 48NLD 47 59 19FRA 14 5 11ITA 1 2 1
DEU 1 6 7CAN 0 3 2DNK 3 4 3
Others 10 8 9
Top-100 Bulls with US Sires 42 33 74
Source: Interbull and domestic, February 2001
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (14) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Top 100 Bulls for Yield (CAN)Top 100 Bulls for Yield (CAN)Based on Official EvaluationsBased on Official Evaluations
Location Protein Fat MilkUSA 40 16 52NLD 26 34 8FRA 10 11 7ITA 2 1 1
DEU 4 10 8CAN 5 8 11DNK 2 3 3
Others 11 17 10
Top-100 Bulls with US Sires 54 27 83
Source: Interbull and domestic, February 2001
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (15) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Top 100 Bulls for Yield (HUN)Top 100 Bulls for Yield (HUN)Based on Official EvaluationsBased on Official Evaluations
Location Protein Fat MilkUSA 31 12 42NLD 20 32 8FRA 18 12 13ITA 4 2 2
DEU 7 18 13CAN 3 4 7DNK 4 4 4
Others 13 16 11
Top-100 Bulls with US Sires 63 30 82
Source: Interbull, February 2001
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (16) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Top 100 Bulls for Yield (CSK)Top 100 Bulls for Yield (CSK)Based on Official EvaluationsBased on Official Evaluations
Location Protein Fat MilkUSA 22 15 34NLD 30 29 13FRA 16 10 8ITA 3 1 6
DEU 3 17 10CAN 7 5 10DNK 4 5 3
Others 15 18 16
Top-100 Bulls with US Sires 41 38 76
Source: Interbull, February 2001
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (17) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Use of ReliabilityUse of Reliability
Measure of accuracy
Guides how muchhow much to use a bull, not not whether to use a bull
Minimum restricts the number of bulls
Limiting bulls limits progress
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (18) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Impact of Minimum REL Impact of Minimum REL On Number of Bulls & Mean PTAP of Top 50 (USA)On Number of Bulls & Mean PTAP of Top 50 (USA)
Minimum RELNumber of Bulls
PTAP (top 50)
(all) 0 65472 72
60 61380 72
70 54312 71
75 49707 71
80 30121 69
85 14167 66
90 4348 59
Source: Interbull, May 2001
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (19) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Impact of Minimum REL Impact of Minimum REL On Number of Bulls & Mean PTAP of Top 50 (HUN)On Number of Bulls & Mean PTAP of Top 50 (HUN)
Minimum RELNumber of Bulls
PTAP (top 50)
(all) 0 65472 60
60 60708 60
70 44982 59
75 26078 57
80 6070 52
85 1203 47
90 208 32
Source: Interbull, May 2001
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (20) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Impact of Minimum REL Impact of Minimum REL On Number of Bulls & Mean PTAP of Top 50 (CSK)On Number of Bulls & Mean PTAP of Top 50 (CSK)
Minimum RELNumber of Bulls
PTAP (top 50)
(all) 0 65472 66
60 59242 66
70 35203 65
75 7395 59
80 1681 54
85 837 50
90 457 47
Source: Interbull, May 2001
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (21) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
WebsitesWebsites
interbull.org Publications & bulletins Evaluation summaries
aipl.arsusda.gov Documents Downloadable files Access to all evaluations
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (22) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
ConclusionsConclusions Interbull Centre young and growing
Rankings differ by country
Foreign data improve prediction of later national evaluations
Most gain is from considering all bulls on one scale
Challenges remain in technical areas and in education
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (23) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Foreign Bull OptionsForeign Bull Options
Top 100 on HGI
HGI as high as 10th HUN bull and HUN REL 75% for production HUN REL 70% for conformation
Nominated and approved
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (24) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Foreign Bulls In & OutForeign Bulls In & Out
367 bulls on HGI combined list
Includes 68 of top 200 on US Net Merit Bulls from all countries eligible for US
NM$ list 6 of top 12 for NM$ not included on HGI
list (among them #2)
3 of top 8 on TPI not included #1 not included
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (25) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Foreign Bulls ExcludedForeign Bulls Excluded
Hungarian1 Foreign
Name Ctry. Protein REL REL2 DausElite Mt Donor Imp AUS 66 68 90 128Etazon Lambro EST 51 74 96 284Looster FRA 50 70 91 108Pen-Col Decision USA 51 73 91 109Pckstn. E. Curtis USA 45 73 90 116Kemview Beauty USA 40 71 87 96Sildahl BW D. Boy USA 57 70 87 96
1Protein and REL from Hungarian scaled MACE2Reliability of evaluation in home country of bull
Interbull Educational Tour 2001 (26) R. L. Powell 2001R. L. Powell 2001
Reliabilities on Hungarian ScaleReliabilities on Hungarian Scale
US REL
Hungarian REL
Expected Actual
75 58 62
80 62 66
85 66 69
90 70 73
92 71 74
94 73 75
96 74 77
98 76 78
99 77 79