use of simulators in contingency planning - perkovic.pdf

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Use of simulators in contingency planning

U N I V E R S I T Y O F L J U B L J A N A

Faculty of Marit ime Studies and Transportation

Marko Perkovič

Opatija, 14 -16 May 2013



1. Introduction – shipping (situation)

2. Maritime safety - risk identification and analyses

3. Case Studies- precursors for new technologydevelopment

4. Use of simulators - in education and contingencytraining/planning

5. Application – real cases6. Conclusion

Presentation

layout



1. natural seeps: 46%

2. discharges from consumption of oils (operational

discharges from ships and discharges from land-based sources): 37%

3. accidental spills from ships; 12%

4. extraction of oil: 3%

U.S. National Academy of Sciences;

average total worldwide annual release of

petroleum (oils) from all known sources tothe sea has been estimated at 1.3 million

tonnes

Australian Petroleum Production and

Exploration Association

1. Land-based sources (urban runoff and discharges

from industry): 37%

2. Natural seeps: 7%

3. The oil industry - tanker accidents and offshore oil

extraction: 14%4. Operational discharges from ships not within the oil

industry: 33%

5. Airborne hydrocarbons: 9%

Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection-GESAMP

1. Land-based sources (urban runoff, coastal

refineries): 50%

2. Oil transporting and shipping (operational

discharges, tanker accidents): 24%

3. Offshore production discharges: 2%4. Atmospheric fallout: 13%

5. Natural seeps: 11%

estimated a total input of oils at 2.3 million tonnes per year and ranked the sources like this

http://oils.gpa.unep.org



2730

2732

2734

2736

2738

2740

2742

2744

800 805 810 815 820 825



Mitigating

Risk



S p a c e B a s e d S u r v e i l l a n c e ( p

r e c u r s o r s o f E M S A C S N )

Radar satellite images gives indications and extension

of pollution!

Structural damage - Accidental pollution – Disaster Management Issue

I m

p r o p e r a c t i o n a n d l a c k o

f d e c i s i o n m

a k i n g p o w e

r

P l a c e o f R e f u g e ( w e l l m a n a g e d „ M S C

N a p o l i “ C a

s e )

E n c o u r a g e d M o d e l l i n g A c t i v i t i e s

A d d i t i o n a l „ m

o t i v a t i o n “ f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l

c o o p e r a t i o n ʹ s



Intentional Structural Damage - Disaster Management Issue

Without response



July 24th 15:30 LT July 24th 10:55 GMTModis-Aqua (Nasa)

July 20th 16:20 LT July 21st 07:50GMT

Envisat Asar (Esa)

Using SAR and Optical Platform to enhance Oil Spill Enhanced Modeling – PISCES 2 simulation results



„On the coast of Yellow Sea in South Korea, a massive oil spill occurred on December

7th, 2007. More than 10,000 tons of crude oil was spilled in the sea after a crane barge

collided with the anchored Hebei Spirit oil tanker, known to be carrying 209,000 tons of crude oil at that time.“

Duk-j in Kim1 et al.: MONITORING OF CRUDE OIL SPILL OFF THE WEST

COAST OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA USING SAR IMAGES

Disaster

Management

“late/inactive

response;

due

to

the

weather”



It was initially believed the oil spill would not spread due to the cold

winter temperatures. Crude oil (cca 12,500 t) stranded along 375 km of

coastline. Wind 15-16 m/s, waves 3-5m.



Federal Institute of Hydrology/undesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (BfG)

The satellite service provides a

partly-automatic first alert and a

good overview.

- The aircraft allow for an additional,

more flexible and high resolution

routine surveillance and provide a

pollution combating assistance.

- The multi-sensor system delivers a

ground truth capability and

preservation of evidence and can be

used for satellite service validation

purposes.

- Probably, the integration of an

existing drift model will be

intensified in future.

Synergetic effects Accidental pollution – Disaster Management Issue



Chart and

Tools

Oil Spill

Tokens of

Response

Resource

Instructorsimulates

an

incident

Trainee

takes

decisions

CMSC development



Simulated response

resources

Actual response

resources

Command

centre

Oil spill

Command

centre

Simulated oil spill

Situation

report

Exercise

controllers

Situation

report

Actual Incident Exercise

PISCES

Exercise

Plan

PISCES

Actual response

resources

CMSC development



Helicopter

Search & Rescue



CMSC development

Simulation of responsestrategies

Modeling of an oil spillincident

Conducting of exercises andarea drills

OPA 90, USCG PREP, OPRC 1990

IMO course “On scene commander”

Simulation of oil spill and response operations

Contingency planning

Table-top and field exercises

….



CMSC development

Instructor

Creates and conducts the

exercise. Controls scenario

time and incident

development

Operator

Provides situation display

for trainees and inputs

response actions into

PISCESII system

Trainees

Play the role of Unified Command.

Analyze the situation, elaborate

response strategies, take decisions



CMSC development

Exercise support : preparation,

conduct ing and debriefing

Comprehensive oil spill modeling

Simulation of response actions

Easy input of environmental

conditions

Multi-user networked operation

User interface

GIS

Connection to external data sources



CMSC development

Multiple spill sources

Oil Transport by wind, tides and

currents

Spreading

Evaporation

Emulsification

Natural dispersion

Dispersant application

Burning

Interaction with response

resources

…



CMSC development

Booms are simulated as flexible permeablebarriers with the ability to move

The permeability or efficiency of booms iscalculated with regard to the boom type,

wave height and relative water velocity

The efficiency of the protected water boomis not suf ficient in given conditions and theoil passes through the boom due toentrainment. The efficiency of the openwater boom is sufficient to stop the spill

Automat ic boom shape calculations takeinto account wind and currents

The user can manually adjust boomefficiency. The efficiency of a boom can beset to zero, simulating a complete failure ofthe boom



CMSC development

Boom model allows realistic

simulation of various boom

deployment methods

Angl ing of a boom to current

direction reduces effective

velocity dif ference between the

boom and water

The Sensit ive Area is protected

via deflecting oil spill away

Spilled oil cannot be contained

due to high speed of currents



CMSC development

Skimmer removes floating oil in the

immediate vicinity of where it is deployed.

The recovery rate depends on the skimmer

model and defined productivity, oil

viscosity, and sea state

The efficiency of a particular skimmer

instance can be manipulated by the user

during an exercise to further impact its

productivity

Trawling booms combined with skimmers

increase skimming productivity



CMSC development

A dispersant application scenario can be

simulated via assigning a route to a

dispersant delivery system loaded with a

particular dispersant

The DDS moves along the route and at each

model step applies dispersant on a small

area

The area size and the applied portion of the

dispersant depend on spray width and

application rate of the delivery system



CMSC development

In-situ burning can be modeled in two ways: as “ free

burning” and “compulsory burning”

For the free burning method the user defines the

initial burning area on the chart and the ignition time. At the ignition time the oi l within the area is set on the

fire and the model calculates the burning process

taking into account water temperature, oil properties,

thickness of the floating product, and percentage of

water in oil

For the compulsory burning, the user defines burning

area on the chart and duration of burning operation.

The program removes oil mass within the specified

area at the burn rate specif ied by the user.



CMSC development

Debrief mode of Instructor Workplace

enables efficient post -exercise analysis by

providing tools to rapidly pinpoint differenttime periods in the recorded exercise, and to

replay the action in fast-time, both forward

and in reverse



AIS data Particular AIS track

(identifying affected area) Video (VTS, and Boat)



2. Creating oil at sea(simulated)

1. AIS track correspondto affected area…

MET OCEAN data And EnvironmentalSensitive Areas andavailable Resources



Simulation based decision making

Contingency planning

Oil spill simulation with the winds and the field of surface



Oil spill simulation – with the winds and the field of surface

currents (Δt=24h)



Identification feasible with:

HF currents,Accurate

AIS,

Low

wind

area,Persistent oil,

Uniform

salinity...

Respond to i llicit pol lution “ Istria Case”



(ESA) ENVISAT/MERIS (NASA) MODIS/TERRA (NASA) MODIS/AQUA (MDA/CSA) RADARSAT-1

09:48 10:10 11:50 16:45

EMSA – CSN 18:45

“ finger print vs. sensor, time, respons and HF currents”

HF currents validation

INTEGRATION



Sat image, AIS shipping, HF currents and Wind Stress on top Navigational

chart

PISCES 2 - Transas TechnologyINGV – NASCUM project on HF currents ESA - ENVISAT/MERIS

INTEGRATION



Backtracking the polluter - animation



OIL RECOVERY SYSTEMS

BOOMS

SKIMMER

SWEEPING ARMS

Dedicated RADAR SLICK detection system

ON BOARD THERE WERE ABOUT:

• 2200 MC IFO (Intermediate Fuel Oil)

• 175 MC MDO

• 145 MC OIL

• 18 MC BILGE WATER

S ill Si l ti C ti



Spill Simulation Comparation



Helsinky Commision



Helsinky Commision

Recent BALTEX DELTA and BALEX BRAVO Exercises



HELCOMContracting

Parties,

participated in the

Balex Delta 2005

exercise

;

DenmarkFinlandGermany

LithuaniaLatviaPoland

Sweden

Interreg IIIA



Interreg IIIA

T h a n k Y o u



T h a n k Y o u

use of simulators in contingency planning - perkovic.pdf

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