usda global crop assessments

Introduction

World Agricultural Outlook Board

• WAOB provides official government forecasts of agricultural commodities– crop production, supply, and trade– price forecasts– U.S. livestock supply and use

• WAOB mission– objectivity (unbiased information)– reliability (sound data and analysis)– timelines (fast flow to users)

• Numerous data sources consulted to determine meteorological impacts on crop progress and conditions

USDA’s Economic

Intelligence System

Economic and Trend Analysis

U.S. and World

Weather

Travel Reports

Remote Sensing

Official Country Reports

Attaché Reports

USDA’s Economic Intelligence System

Farm Service Agency

Joint Agricultural

Weather Facility

Foreign Agricultural

Service

Economic Research Service

National Agricultural

Statistics Service

ERS Situation and Outlook

Reports

Weekly Weatherand

Crop Bulletin

World Agricultural

Outlook BoardDomestic

Production and Stocks Estimates

World Agricultural Supply and

Demand EstimatesFAS

Commodity Circulars

Long-term Baseline

Projections


55.7Wheat

Soybean

Corn 20.3

34.4

78.1

45.246.7

U.S. Exports as Percent of ProductionWheat, Corn, and Soybeans


76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02Year

010203040506070Billion Dollars

80100120140160180200220

MMT

U. S. AGRICULTURAL TRADEFiscal Year, 1976 - 2003

59.9

Exports in value

Bulk commodities exports in volume136.4

57.0 2003 Forecast

109.1

U.S. Agricultural TradeFiscal Year, 1976 - 2003

2001/02 estimate

2002/03 forecast

Change from last month

Change from last year

Planted area (million acres) 59.6 60.4 0.0 1.3Harvested area (million acres) 48.6 45.8 0.0 -5.8Yield (bushels per acre) 40.2 35.3 0.0 -12.2

Beginning stocks 876 777 0.0 -11.3Production 1,957 1,616 0.0 -17.4Imports 108 75 0.0 -30.3

Total supply 2,941 2,469 0.0 -16.1Food use 926 940 0.0 1.5Seed 84 84 -2.3 0.4Feed and residual 192 100 0.0 -48.0

Domestic use 1,202 1,124 -0.2 -6.5Exports 961 900 -2.7 -6.4

Total use 2,164 2,024 -1.3 -6.5Ending stocks 777 445 6.5 -42.8

Stocks to use ratio 35.9 22.0

Average market price 2.78 3.55/3.65 1.4/-3.9 27.7/31.3

Percent

Dollars per bushel

Million bushels

Percent

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand



Supply UseBeginning Domestic Ending

Year Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Stocks Million Metric Tons

2000/01 3.61 23.77 0.07 3.40 6.30 15.93 5.222001/02 5.22 24.00 0.08 3.45 6.48 16.41 6.412002/03 6.41 10.00 0.15 4.20 7.20 7.00 2.36

Supply UseBeginning Domestic Ending

Year Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Stocks Million Metric Tons

2000/01 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.882001/02 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.592002/03 76.59 91.00 0.70 7.00 105.61 1.50 61.17

China Wheat Supply and Use, 2000/01- 2002/03

Australia Wheat Supply and Use, 2000/01- 2002/03


Introduction

World Ending Stocks

3.55 - 3.65

4.55U.S. Wheat Price

171.5

207.0

World Wheat Ending Stocks & U.S. Wheat PricesMarketing Year, 1976 – 2002

54.8 Net Farm Income

Direct Government Payments 17.6

44.9 2003 Forecast

22.9


U.S. Net Farm Income & Direct Government Payments1990 - 2003

El Niño


• Below-normal precipitation is often observed in parts of Australia during El Niño episodes

• Satellite-derived sea-surface temperature data beneficial, providing an early warning of potential crop failure

• Historically, winter wheat yields are reduced in El Niño years, sometimes dramatically

Source: NOAA/NWS/CPChttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.html

Surface Weather Observations


• Surface weather observations confirmed the development of drought, helping to quantify precipitation and temperature anomalies in major crop producing areas

Winter Grain/Oilseed Areas

% Normal PrecipLess than 25%

25 to 50%

50 to 75%

75 to 100%

100 to 150%

150 to 200%

200 to 400%

More than 400%

No Data

Percent Normal PrecipitationMay 1, 2002 - Aug 31, 2002

Satellite Data


Source: NOAA/NWS/NCDChttp://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/servlets/SSMIBrowser

Source: NOAA/NESDIS/OSEI http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Dust/Australia/2002/DSTaust296_GM.jpg

• Remote-sensing data corroborated these surface weather observations, providing additional insight on climate anomalies (e.g., spatial extent of drought) and local extreme events (e.g., dust storms)

Higher Resolution Satellite Data


Source: PECAD

2002 2001

Imagery illustrates better crop conditions in 2001 than in 2002

Northern New South Wales

Moderate to strong:

El Niño

South Africa Corn Yields


South Africa Crop & Weather Data


Early planting

Late planting

Vegetation conditions in eastern region are

below average

Source: PECAD

Source: PECAD

Source: PECAD

Winterkill Analyses


Russia

Ukraine

Satellite-derived snow cover and surface temperature observations analyzed… snow cover protects dormant winter grains from bitterly cold weather in Russia

Source: NOAA/NESDIS/SSD http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/LOOP/asia-1mo-loop.html

Tropical Cyclones


Mexico

Gulfof

Mexico

PacificOcean

forecast t

rack

Kenna - 130 kts winds

Hurricane Kenna Approaching Mexico24 October 2002 - 1715 GMT

Imagery Source: NOAA/NESDIS/SSD http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html

• Satellite imagery provides insight into the potential spatial extent of crop damage associated with land-falling tropical cyclones

• In this example, visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Kenna was imported into a GIS

• When such images are overlaid crop production and area data in a GIS, analysts can estimate storm impacts on crop progress and conditions

U.S. and South America Soybean Production


1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03

Billion bushels

United StatesSouth America

Source: PECAD


Argentina

Paraguay

Bolivia

< 1 1-10 10-50 50-100 100+

1,000 Hectares per Municipio: (1996)

Source: IBGE Brazil Source: PECAD

Argentina

Paraguay

Bolivia

BRAZIL: Soybean Area Distribution BRAZIL: Vegetation Index – Jan 31, 2003

Sparse Vegetation

NDVI Vegetation Index

Dense Vegetation

Changes in Balance of First and Second Crops


Ratio of First-Crop Soybeans to Total

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1994/95

1995/96

1996/97

1997/98

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02p

2002/03f

First Second

• 82% of Argentina’s soybean planted area is expected to be planted to first-crop soybeans in 2002/03

• Average portion is 70%• First-crop soybean yields

average 2.49 tons/ha• Second-crop soybean yields

average 1.92 tons/ha

Source: SAGPyA, USDA

Changes in Crop Area


January 16, 2003 Landsat-7 ETM Ch-4,5,3January 22, 2002 Landsat-7 ETM Ch-4,5,3

Landsat satellite imagery shows more area devoted to summer crops in 2002/03

Source: PECAD

Citrus Freeze

World Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Minimum Temperatures in Florida Orange Producing AreasJanuary 24, 2003

42

20

27

38

47

24

40

27

22

33

3329

34

46

29

28

39

48

49

2225

16

20

24

28

23

16 1918

27

16

31

36

22

30

34

27

22

23

28

34

26

18

24 22

38

Data obtained from synoptic weather stations andthe Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN)

Major Growing AreasMinor Growing Areas

LEGEND

Surface temperature observations indicate the potential for a damaging freeze in Florida citrus areas

Citrus Freeze


Infrared satellite imagery can be used to show detail in areas where surface observations are not available

-10

0

10

T(C)

Source: NOAA/NWS/CPC – 4km IR image from GOES 8

02 February 2003

Wish List– Provide near real time availability– Develop new products, specifically those that quantify rather than qualify

• precipitation (values vs. “wet” or “dry”)• surface air temperature (values vs. “hot” or “cold”)• soil moisture/temperature• snow cover/depth• wind speed/direction

– Increase global coverage• penetrate cloud cover• expand country coverage

– Resolution, food for thought…• 32 km x 32 km (20 mi x 20 mi) would provide at least one measurement per county for

most counties. Same density targeted by NOAA for Cooperative Observer Network.• higher resolution needed for some specialty crops

– Develop data archive for purpose of establishing “normals”– Establish user-friendly data formats/downloading procedures

usda global crop assessments

Documents

area data

crop progress

major crop

areassatellite data

overlaid crop production

wheat supply

better crop conditions

usersnumerous data sources