usc mobile regions, healthy people: exploring the transportation – land use – environment –...
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USC
Mobile regions, healthy people:Exploring the transportation – land use – environment – public health
connection
Lake Arrowhead Symposium
October 2005
Genevieve Giuliano
University of Southern California
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Subtitle: The benefits and costs of automobility
• Another subtitle: the benefits and costs of cheap transportation
• The costs – a long and growing list
• The benefits – a list increasingly ignored
• Focus on human costs and benefits
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Costs
Genevieve Giuliano
Congestion
Health effects of pollution
Traffic crashes
Physical activity?
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Private Vehicles
1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001
Persons/HH 3.16 2.83 2.69 2.56 2.63 N/A
Vehicles/HH 1.16 1.59 1.68 1.77 1.78 1.90
Veh/driver 0.70 0.94 0.98 1.01 1.00 1.08
Veh trips/HH 3.83 3.95 4.07 5.69 6.36 N/A
VMT/driver 20.6 19.5 18.7 28.4 32.1 29.0
Source: NPTS/NHTS
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Basic stats: 5 county urbanized region
1980 1990 2000
Population
(millions)11.192 14.012 15.779
Employment
(millions)5.388 6.875 7.242
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LA/OC Urbanized Area
1982 2002
Total daily VMT 165M 293M
Total road miles 22.8K 26.3K
Total person-hrs delay
186M 625M
Congestion cost $1.951B $11.231B
Delay/person 19 hrs 49 hrs
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
SCAG 2005 State of the Region
LA/LB largest container port in US, 5th in world
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Air pollution
• Growing recognition of health hazards of small particulates– SCAQMD studies– USC health panel studies
• Role of goods movement, international trade– Large increases in truck traffic, port activity– Jurisdiction issues
• Increasing marginal costs of emissions reductions
SCAG 2005 State of the Region
Other problems: PM10 and PM2.5
PLA Emissions: NO2/PM10
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PM 10 emissions sources – POLA
RR locomotives, 6%
Cargo equipment, 12%
HD vehicles, 9%
Ocean vessels, 55%
Harbor craft, 18%
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Adverse Health Impacts
• USC researchers have discovered:
– Deaths increased by up to 17% for each increase of 10 micrograms per cubic meter of PM 2.5 particles.
– Deaths from heart disease rose by as much as 39%.
– More lung cancer deaths also occurred.
– Children near freeways have 89% higher risk of developing asthma
Source: SCAQMD MATES II
Cancer deaths per 1 million persons
Clusters of Concern
Source: LA Weekly 9/23-29/05
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Traffic safety 2004
Killed Injured
Total 42,636 2,788,000
Vehicle occupants 33,134 2,594,000
Motorcycle 4,008 76,000
Pedestrian 4,641 68,000
Bike 725 41,000
Other non-occ 128 9,000
Source: NTSA 2004 Statistics
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Top 10 leading causes of death by age group, 2002
Age < 1 yr
1 – 3
4 – 15
16 – 24
25 – 34
35 – 44
45 – 64
> 65 all
rank 8 2 1 1 1 3 8 n/a 8
share 0.4 10.0 22.2 34.0 16.8 7.5 2.2 1.8
Source: NTSA 2005
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Physical Activity
• Physical activity “engineered” out of daily life– Fewer high activity jobs– More labor saving devices– More leisure time– More TV and video games– More motorized travel
• Shifts in travel significant, but represent small proportion of daily activities
Base Non-motorized travel up 100%
Active paid work up 10%
Active free time up 25%
All strategies
Female
Active 4.10 4.20 4.30 4.21 4.52
Not active 19.90 19.80 19.70 19.79 19.49
Change active
2.6% 4.8% 2.6% 10.3%
Male
Active 3.93 4.02 4.16 4.04 4.36
Not active 20.07 19.98 19.84 19.96 19.64
Change active
2.3% 5.8% 2.7% 11.0%
Summary of results, hours/day
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Benefits
• Access to…..– jobs, education– preferred housing, neighborhoods, amenities– social networks– health care– consumer goods and services
• Transportation as equalizer
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Access to jobs
• Auto vs transit access to jobs– Studies show transit access much inferior, even in
cities with extensive service– Transit travel times– Transit schedule, service mismatches
• Spatial mismatch– Patterns of population, job decentralization – Where jobs are vs where workers are
• Job mobility– Job turnover– Careers and sequential jobs
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Access to housing, neighborhoods
• Varied preferences for housing, neighborhoods– Preferences for single family detached– Niche markets
• West Hollywood, Santa Monica, San Marino
• Community attachment– Attachment to “place”– Social networks
• Jobs/housing balance– Longer commutes make possible more preferred job
and residence choices– Residential mobility lower than job mobility
• Access to parks, recreation, other amenities
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Access to social networks
• Mobility and well-being among the elderly– Social integration key problem for elderly
• Social roles, social networks
– Psychological importance of out-of-home activities– Seniors identify mobility as critical element in life
satisfaction– Car as freedom, independence, means for mobility– Cessation of driving
• Loss of independence, social isolation, reduced access to essential services
• Distributed families, friends and cheap air travel
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Access to health care
• Problems of the uninsured– As more providers avoid treating uninsured,
access to healthcare declines– Difficulties in transporting the sick, frail
• Transit not an option in an emergency
• Problems of the insured– Provider restrictions– Finding the best possible care
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Access to consumer goods and services
• The poor pay more– Captured markets
• Limited variety of food, consumer goods in low income neighborhoods– Living in a “food desert”– Banks and financial services
• Competition and scale economies– Target, Wal-Mart not all bad
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Transportation as equalizer
• Options to address spatial disparities– Disperse the poor among the non-poor– Promote jobs, economic activity in poor,
minority areas– Provide transport to overcome spatial
segmentation
• The first two options face many barriers; transport becomes the default
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Conclusion
Automobility has large costs and large benefits. The policy
challenge is to reduce the costs while preserving the benefits.