usama fayyad talk at iit madras on march 27, 2015: bigdata, alldata, old data: predictive analytics...

1 Keynote talk – DSAA 2014, Shanghai – Copyright Usama Fayyad © 2014

BigData, Old Data, to AllData: Predictive Analytics in a Changing Data Landscape

Usama Fayyad, Ph.D.

Chief Data Officer – Barclays

Twitter: @usamafTalk at IIT Madras

Chennai, India– March 27, 2015


Outline• Big Data all around us• The CDO role and Data Axioms• Some of the issues in BigData• Introduction to Data Mining and Predictive

Analytics Over BigData• Case studies • Summary and conclusions


What Matters in the Age of Analytics?

1.Being Able to exploit all the data that is available • not just what you've got available • what you can acquire and use to enhance your actions

2. Proliferating analytics throughout the organization• make every part of your business smarter• Actions and not just insights

3. Driving significant business value • embedding analytics into every area of your business can

significantly drive top line revenues and/or bottom line cost efficiencies


Why Big Data?A new term, with associated “Data Scientist” positions:

• Big Data: is a mix of structured, semi-structured, and unstructured data:– Typically breaks barriers for traditional RDB storage

– Typically breaks limits of indexing by “rows”

– Typically requires intensive pre-processing before each query to extract “some structure” – usually using Map-Reduce type operations

• Above leads to “messy” situations with no standard recipes or architecture: hence the need for “data scientists” – conduct “Data Expeditions”

– Discovery and learning on the spot


The 4-V’s of “Big Data”

• Big Data is Characterized by the 3-V’s:

– Volume: larger than “normal” – challenging to load/process• Expensive to do ETL

• Expensive to figure out how to index and retrieve

• Multiple dimensions that are “key”

– Velocity: Rate of arrival poses real-time constraints on what are typically “batch ETL” operations

• If you fall behind catching up is extremely expensive (replicate very expensive systems)

• Must keep up with rate and service queries on-the-fly

– Variety: Mix of data types and varying degrees of structure• Non-standard schema

• Lots of BLOB’s and CLOB’s

• DB queries don’t know what to do with semi-structured and unstructured data.


Male, age 32

Lives in SFLawyer

Searched on from London last week

Searched on:“Italian restaurantPalo Alto”

Checks Yahoo! Mail daily via PC & Phone

Has 25 IM Buddies, Moderates 3 Y! Groups, and hosts a 360 page viewed by 10k people

Searched on:“Hillary Clinton”

Clicked on Sony Plasma TV

SS ad

Registration Campaign Behavior Unknown

Spends 10 hour/week

On the internet Purchased Da Vinci Codefrom Amazon

“Classic” Data: e.g. Yahoo! User DNA


Male, age 32

Lives in SFLawyer







SS ad

Spends 10 hour/week

On the internet Purchased Da Vinci Code from Amazon

How Data Explodes: really big

Social Graph (FB)

Likes &

friends likes

Professional netwk

- reputation

Web searches on

this person,

hobbies, work,

locationMetaData on everything

Blogs, publications,

news, local papers,

job info, accidents


The Distinction between “Classic Data” and “Big Data” is fast disappearing

• Most real data sets nowadays come with a serious mix of semi-structured and unstructured components:– Images– Video– Text descriptions and news, blogs, etc…– User and customer commentary– Reactions on social media: e.g. Twitter is a mix of data

anyway

• Using standard transforms, entity extraction, and new generation tools to transform unstructured raw data into semi-structured analyzable data


Text Data: The Big Driver

• We speak of “big data” and the “Variety” in 3-V’s• Reality: biggest driver of growth of Big Data has been

text data– Most work on analysis of “images” and “video” data has

really been reduced to analysis of surrounding text

Nowhere more so than on the internet

• Map-Reduce popularized by Google to address the problem of processing large amounts of text data: – Many operations with each being a simple operation but

done at large scale– Indexing a full copy of the web– Frequent re-indexing


IT Log & Security Forensics & Analytics

Automated Device DataAnalytics

Failure Analysis

Proactive Fixes

Product Planning

AdvertisingAnalytics

Segmentation

Recommendation

Social Media

Big DataWarehouse Analytics

Cost Reduction Ad Hoc Insight

Predictive Analytics

Hadoop + MPP + EDW

Find New Signal Predict Events

100% Capture

Big Data Applications and Uses


A few words on:The Chief Data Officer

Why are companies creating this position?


Why a Chief Data Officer?• There is a fundamental realisation that Data needs to

become a primary value driver at organizations• We have lots of Data• We spend much on it: in technology and people• We are not realising the value we expect from it

• A strong business need to create the CDO role:• Traditional companies are not following, but adopting the

model that actually works in other data-intensive industries

• CDO has a seat at executive table: the voice of Data• Data done right is an essential element to unify large

enterprises to unlock value form business synergies


Why data is importantEvery customer interaction is an opportunity to capture data, learn, and act

Data

capture/

opportunity

to learn

Actions

instant car loan product offering is

displayed in the app

Connie logs into mobile App to check her

balance. We know she is looking for a car loan

CRM data is used to pre-calculate

Connie’s borrowing limit for a car loan

Internal and external data sources, predictive models identify cross-

sell opportunities

Connie is offered a competitively priced

‘bespoke’ offer for car servicing / MOT

Experimenting with different tools for

different groups of

Connie gets a better user experience in real-

time during every session

personalised journey based on pre-

calculated limit for the car loan amount

Customer Interactions (branch visits, telephone calls, digital, mobile, sales)

Big Data platform

Customer Interaction CRM

Predictive Analytics

Multivariate Testing

Targeted offers during browsing

Product Discovery

Cross-sell Measure feedback per session

Millions of customer interactions per day


Fundamental Data Principles to Support Analytics

Usama’s Obvious Data Axioms


Data Axioms

1. Data gains value exponentially when integrated and coalesced.

– When fragmented: dramatic value loss takes place;– increased costs; – reduced utility/integrity; – and increased security risks


Data Axioms

2. Fusing Data together from disparate/independent sources is difficult

to achieve and impossible to maintainHence only viable approach is:• Intercepting and documenting at the source• fusing at the source • controlling lifecycle and flow


Data Axioms

3. Standardisation is essential• for sustained ability to integrate data sources

and hence growing value; • for simplifying down-stream systems and apps• For enforcing discipline as a firm increases its

data sources


Data Axioms

4. Data governance and policy must be centralised

• needs to be enforced strongly else we slip into chaos and a Babylon of terms/languages

• An Enterprise Data Architecture spanning structured and unstructured data


Data Axioms

5. Recency Matters data streaming in modelling and scoring

• Often, accuracy of prediction drops quickly with time (e.g. consumer shopping)

• Value of alerts drop exponentially with time…• Ability to trigger responses based on real-

time scoring critical• Streaming, real-time model updates, real-

time scoring


Data Axioms

6. Data Infrastructure Needs: • rapid renewal & modernization: the pace of

change and development of technology are very rapid– Design for migration and infrastructure replacement

via abstraction layers that remove tech dependencies

• Encryption and Masking: Persisting unencrypted confidential and secret data (even within secure firewalls) is an invitation for problems and risks


Data Axioms

7. Data is a primary competency and not a side-activity supporting other

processes• Hence specialized skills and know-how are a

must• Generalists will create a hopeless mess• Data is difficult: modelling, architecture, and

design to support analytics


Reality Check

So I am a marketer, how do I use BigData for my business?

Social Media? Sentiment Analysis?

25 Keynote talk – DSAA 2014, Shanghai – Copyright Usama Fayyad © 2014 ©LUMAPartnersLLC2014

Gamification

SOCIALLUMAscape

Social Data

Community Platforms

Social/Mobile Apps & Games

Social Networks - Other

Social Search & Browsing

Social Commerce Platforms

Analytics

Social Promotion Platforms

Social Publishing Platforms

Social Marketing Management Twitter Apps

Facebook Gaming

Facebook Apps

Content Curation

URL Shorteners Stream Platforms

Traditional Publishers

Social Business Software

Content Sharing (Reviews/Q&A/Docs)

Image/Video Sharing

Blogging Platforms

External (Customer) Facing

Internal (Employee) Facing

Social Ad Networks

Social Intelligence Social Scoring

Social TV

Social Referral

MA

R

K

E

TE

R

CO

N

S

U

ME

R Social Shopping

Social Advertising Platforms

Social Login/Sharing

Social Content & Forums

Denotes acquired company Denotes shuttered company

Advocate Platforms

Social Branded Video


Reality Check

So what should Users of Analytics in Big Data World Do?


Load the Data into a Data LakeYour life will be so much easier as you can now do Data Acrobatics an other amazing data feats…


The Data Lake -- according to Waterline

We loaded the Data!Congratulations

Now What?


From a Data Lake to Amazon BrowserAmazon Simple Search

Amazon gives you facets

Product details


Reality Check

So where do analysts and data Scientists spend all their time?


Data Analysis Vs. Data PrepLet’s Mine the Data


Reality Check

So what do technology people worry about these days?


To Hadoop or not to Hadoop?

when to use techniques requiring Map-Reduce and grid computing?• Typically organizations try to use Map-Reduce

for everything to do with Big Data– This is actually very inefficient and often irrational– Certain operations require specialized storage

• Updating segment memberships over large numbers of users

• Defining new segments on user or usage data


Drivers of Hadoop in Large Enterprises

Cost of Storage• Fastest growing demand is more storage• Data in Data Warehouses have traditionally required

expensive storage technology:

–$100K per terabyte per year – cost of Teradata storage

– $2.5K per terabyte – much lower per year –cost of Hadoop on commodity storage


Analysis & Programming Software

PIG

HIPI


Hadoop Stack


Reality: If Storage is Biggest Driver of Hadoop Adoption; What is the next biggest?

ETL• Replaces expensive licenses• Much higher performance with lower infrastructure

costs (processors, memory)• Flexibility in changing schema and representation• Flexibility on taking on unstructured and semi-

structured data• Plus suite of really cool tools…


Turning the three Vs of Big Data into ValueUnderstand context and content• What are appropriate actions?• Is it Ok to associate my brand with this content?• Is content sad?, happy?, serious?, informative?

Understand community sentiment• What is the emotion?• Is it negative or positive?• What is the health of my brand online?

Understand customer intent?• What is each individual trying to achieve?• Can we predict what to do next?• Critical in cross-sell, personalization, monetization,

advertising, etc…


Many Business Uses of Predictive AnalyticsAnalytic technique Uses in business

Marketing and sales Identify potential customers; establish the

effectiveness of a campaign

Understanding customer behavior model churn, affinities, propensities, …

Web analytics & metrics model user preferences from data, collaborative filtering, targeting, etc.

Fraud detection Identify fraudulent transactions

Credit scoring Establish credit worthiness of a customer requesting a loan

Manufacturing process analysis Identify the causes of manufacturing problems

Portfolio trading optimize a portfolio of financial instruments by maximizing returns & minimizing risks

Healthcare Application fraud detection, cost optimization, detection of events like epidemics, etc...

Insurance fraudulent claim detection, risk assessment

Security and Surveillance intrusion detection, sensor data analysis, remote sensing, object/person detection, link analysis, etc...

Case Studies:

1. Context Analysis (unstructured data)

2. Yahoo! predictive modeling


Understanding Context


Reality Check

So who is the company we think is best at handling BigData?


Biggest BigData in Advertising?

Understanding Context for Ads


The Display Ads Challenge Today

What Ad would you place here?


The Display Ads Challenge TodayDamaging to Brand?


The Display Ads Challenge Today

What Ad would you place here?

CONFIDENTIAL

Why did Google Serve

this Ad?

51

this is how NetSeer

actually sees this

content

NetSeer: SOLVING ACCURACY ISSUES | AMBIGUITY, WASTE, BRAND SAFETY

51

CONFIDENTIAL

high MPG

ford

low emission

fuel efficiency

ECONOMY CARS

economy

vehicles

microscope

lenses

reading

glasses

autofocus

bifocal

refraction

VISION TOOLS

eye chart

focus groups

A/B testing

consumer study

surveying

blind studyanalytics

MARKET RESEARCH

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

WEBSITE.COM

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

~ ~ ~ ~

electric

vehicles

service

record

safety rating

NetSeer – How it works52

focus<CONCEPT>

DISCERNS AND MONETIZES HUMAN

INTENT

+ Identifies Concepts expressed on a page

+ Disambiguates language

+ Builds increasingly rich profile over time

52M2.3B

CONCEPTS

RELATIONSHIPS

BETWEEN

CONCEPTS


NetSeer: Intent for Display

• Currently Processing 4 Billion Impressions per Day


Problem: Hard to Understand User Intent

Contextual Ad served by Google What NetSeer Sees:

CONFIDENTIAL

http://diabetes.webmd.com/default.htm

NETSEER CONNECTING THE DOTS

55

Understanding intent of user online actions and connecting

them to define user intent profile over time

http://diabetes.webmd.com/default.htm

CONFIDENTIAL

http://www.healthline.com/health/type

-2-diabetes/insulin-pumps


56



http://www.healthline.com/health/type-2-diabetes/insulin-pumps

CONFIDENTIAL

Search: Sulfonylureas


57



Case Studies:

1. Context Analysis (unstructured data)

2. Yahoo! Predictive Modeling

Yahoo! – One of Largest Destinations on the Web

80% of the U.S. Internet population uses Yahoo!

– Over 600 million users per month globally!

Global network of content, commerce, media, search and

access products

100+ properties including mail, TV, news, shopping, finance,

autos, travel, games, movies, health, etc.

25+ terabytes of data collected each day

• Representing 1000’s of cataloged consumer behaviors

More people visited

Yahoo! in the past

month than:

• Use coupons

• Vote

• Recycle

• Exercise regularly

• Have children

living at home

• Wear sunscreen

regularly

Sources: Mediamark Research, Spring 2004 and comScore Media Metrix, February 2005.

Data is used to develop content, consumer, category and campaign

insights for our key content partners and large advertisers

Yahoo! Big Data – A league of its

own…Terrabytes of Warehoused Data

25 49 94 100500

1,000

5,000

Amaz

on

Kore

a

Tele

com

AT&T

Y! L

iveS

tor

Y! P

anam

a

War

ehou

se

Wal

mar

t

Y! M

ain

war

ehou

se

GRAND CHALLENGE PROBLEMS OF DATA PROCESSING

TRAVEL, CREDIT CARD PROCESSING, STOCK EXCHANGE, RETAIL, INTERNET

Y! Data Challenge Exceeds others by 2 orders of magnitude

Millions of Events Processed Per Day

50 120 225

2,000

14,000

SABRE VISA NYSE YSM Y! Global

Behavioral Targeting (BT)

Search

Ad Clicks

Content

Search Clicks

BT

Targeting ads to

consumers whose recent

behaviors online indicate

which product category is

relevant to them

Male, age 32

Lives in SFLawyer







SS ad

Registration Campaign Behavior Unknown

Spends 10 hour/week

On the internet Purchased Da Vinci Codefrom Amazon

Yahoo! User DNA

• On a per consumer basis: maintain a behavioral/interests profile and profitability (user value and LTV) metrics

How it works | Network + Interests +

Modelling

Analyze predictive patterns for purchase

cycles in over 100 product categories

In each category, build models to describe

behaviour most likely to lead to an ad

response (i.e. click).

Score each user for fit with every

category…daily.

Target ads to users who get highest

‘relevance’ scores in the targeting

categories

Varying Product Purchase CyclesMatch Users to the ModelsRewarding Good BehaviourIdentify Most Relevant Users

Recency Matters, So Does Intensity

Active now… …and with feeling

Differentiation | Category specific

modelling

time

inte

nsity s

core

time

inte

nsity s

core

Inte

nse

Clic

k Z

on

e

Example 1: Category Automotive Example 2: Category Travel/Last Minute

Different models allow us to weight and determine intensity and recency

Alt Behaviour 1: 5 pages, 2 search keywords, 1 search click, 1 ad click Alt Behaviour 1: 5 pages, 2 search keywords, 1 search click, 1 ad click

Inte

nse

Clic

k Z

on

e

Differentiation | Category specific

modelling

time

inte

nsity s

core

Intense Click Zone

Example 1: Category Automotive

Different models allow us to weight and determine intensity and recency

with no further activity, decay takes effect

Alt Behaviour 1: 5 pages, 2 search keywords, 1 search click, 1 ad click

user is in the Intense Click Zone

Automobile Purchase Intender Example

A test ad-campaign with a major Euro automobile manufacturer Designed a test that served the same ad creative to test and control groups

on Yahoo

Success metric: performing specific actions on Jaguar website

Test results: 900% conversion lift vs. control group Purchase Intenders were 9 times more likely to configure a vehicle, request

a price quote or locate a dealer than consumers in the control group

~3x higher click through rates vs. control group

Mortgage Intender Example

We found:

1,900,000 people looking

for mortgage loans.

+122%

CTR Lift

Mortgages Home Loans Refinancing Ditech

Financing section in Real Estate

Mortgage Loans area in Finance

Real Estate section in Yellow Pages

+626%

Conv Lift

Example search terms qualified for this target:

Example Yahoo! Pages visited:

Source: Campaign Click thru Rate lift is determined by Yahoo! Internal

research. Conversion is the number of qualified leads from clicks over number of impressions served. Audience size represents the audience within this behavioral interest category that has the highest propensity to engage with a brand or product and to

click on an offer.Date: March 2006

Results from a client campaign on Yahoo!

NetworkExample: Mortgages

Experience summary at Yahoo!

• Dealing with one of the largest data sources (25

Terabyte per day)

• Behavioral Targeting business was grown from $20M

to > $400M in 3 years of investment!

• Yahoo! Specific? -- BigData critical to operations

– Ad targeting creates huge value

– Right teams to build technology (3 years of recruiting)

– Search is a BigData problem (but this has moved to

mainstream)

Lessons Learned

A lot more data than qualified talent

Finding talent in BigData is very difficult

Retaining talent in BigData is even harder

At Yahoo! we created central group that drove huge value to

company

Data people need to feel like they have critical mass

Makes it easier to attract the right people

Makes it easier to retain

Drive data efforts by business need, not by technology

priorities

Chief Data Officer role at Yahoo! – now popular

RapidMiner in Big Data

Case Study

RapidMiner’s Strengths

7272

• Open Source Community & Marketplace – Crowd-sourced innovation, quality assurance, market awareness.

• Fully-integrated Platform – Integrated, process-based business analytics platform with focus on predictive analytics.

• No Programming Required – Easy-to-use, low maintenance costs, standard platform for business analysts.

• Advanced Analytics at Every Scale – In-memory, in-database and in-Hadoop analytics offer best option for every size of database.

• Connectivity – More than 60 connectors (incl. SAP & Hadoop), allowing easy access to structured and unstructured data.

30,000+ Downloads per Month

SELECT LIST OF RECIPIENT ORGANIZATIONS

7373

Government & DefensePharma & Healthcare

Consulting

Oil & Gas, Chemicals

Financial ServicesSoftware & Analytics

Retail

Manufacturing

Business Services

Consumer ProductsAerospace

Technology

Entertainment Academia

74

PayPal

Who > world leading

online payment services

provider

Solution > Customer

feedback and voice of the

customer analysis, churn

prediction and prevention,

text mining and sentiment

analysis

SmartSoft

Who > provider of

solutions for preventing

fraud, money laundering,

and risks in financial

institutions

Solution > Integration of

Rapid-I’s predictive

analytics engine into their

solutions for fraud

detection and fraud

prevention for the

financial and telecom

sectors

Select Customer Stories

SO WHAT IS THE

BIG DATA STORY?

So the data is naturally moving to

Hadoop...

Situation:

–The data is moving to Hadoop for Cost (storage) and

Convenience (ETL) forces

–How do we get the value of predictive analytics to the data?

Rather than move the data out, move the analytics to the

data!

–Can we minimize the need for data movement?

–Data copies can become a management nightmare

–Analytics on a “Business As Usual” manner require

convenience

76

Radoop – RapidMiner on HadoopOpportunity:

–Avoid expensive data movement

–Leverage convenient data transformation

–Thousands of data connectors, many over semi-

structured and unstructured data

Why is this big news?

–Leverages a naturally occurring wave

–Analytics over a richer variety requires much more

processing

–The energy placed on data extraction and loading

moves to energy applied on actual analysis and

modelling

77

Big Picture on Big Data Analytics

Observations and

Concluding Remarks

Retaining New Yahoo! Mail Registrants

Often,

Simple is Very Powerful!

Integrating Mail and News

Data showed that users often check their mail

and news in the same session

–But no easy way to navigate to Y! News from Y! Mail

Mail users who also visit Y! News are 3X more

active on Yahoo

–Higher retention, repeat visits and time-spent

on Yahoo

“In the news” Module on Mail Welcome Page

Increased retention on Mail for light users by 40%!

– Est. Incremental revenue of $16m a year on Y! Mail alone

Nordstrom: Queries with No

Matches

Julie Bornstein, Web Marketing Director

–What are my customers looking for and not

finding?

–June 2002: queries for “belly button rings”

–returned no matches in store

–Why the sudden interest?

Nordstrom: Queries with No

Matches

Print Ad Campaign

Models happen to be sporting a

navel ring

Nordstrom does not sell navel

rings

What to do???

The early days of

mass auto

production

Today’s Auto:

It just works!

No need to understand what happens

when you turn on ignition

Very complex inside, but all simplicity

on the outside

Application Dates

Internships: Just launched

Contact : Faizan Chaudhary ([email protected]) and Tushar

Wadaskar ([email protected])

A Sampling of Technology Opportunities at Barclays:We seek world-class technologists, data scientists, problem-solvers ,Data systems engineers-- the team that will re-invent Financial Services

Amer Sajed

CEO, Barclaycard US

Bassel Ojjeh

Chief Data Architect, DSI

Simon GordonMD, Head of Risk and Legal Technology - DSI

innovating Data and Analytics

solutions within the Financial

Markets industry ; understand and

influence the future of the global

Derivatives market. Risk

Technology within Barclays are

looking for world-class big data and

quantitative modeling skills.

A great opportunity to work on

some of the hardest technical

problems in the industry by using

open source to catch the bad guys

stealing money all the way up to

helping kids saving for their college

We at Barclays are unleashing the power of

disruptive technology. Innovation led by data

and design keeping our customers at the heart

of every product we build is our mantra. Come

join the revolution.

We have a challenge to quadruple

our business here in the US - and

that can only be delivered through

analytics - in marketing, risk, fraud,

and operations. And, Pune is the

undisputed center of the universe!

Faizan ChaudharyDirector, Data Systems & Insights

(DSI)

88 Imperial College – DSI Distinguished Lecture– Copyright Usama Fayyad © 2014

Usama Fayyad

[email protected]@barclays.com

www.barclays.com/joinus

Thank You! & Questions

Twitter – @Usamaf

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.bluekangaroo.com/


usama fayyad talk at iit madras on march 27, 2015: bigdata, alldata, old data: predictive analytics...

Data & Analytics

unstructured data

old data

outlinebig data

data mining

amazonclassic data

data axiomssome

data scientists

amazonhow data