This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International development. It was prepared by Dexis Consulting Group for the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program.

USAID/OTI ETHIOPIA PROGRAM SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT April 1, 2020 – September 30, 2020, FY2020

October 30, 2020 Award: 7200AA19D00019 (SWIFT 5-Programs) Order No. 7200AA20F00004 Submitted by: Dexis Consulting Group | 1412 Eye Street, NW Washington, DC 20005 | (202) 625-9444 www.dexisonline.com

HANS LUCAS VIA AFP

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACRONYMS 1

INTRODUCTION 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY OF MAJOR ACTIVITIES 3 ACTIVITIES SUPPORTING OBJECTIVE 1 3 ACTIVITIES SUPPORTING OBJECTIVE 2 3

COUNTRY SITUATION 4 POLITICAL CONTEXT 4 IMPACTS OF COVID-19 4

ACTIVITY HIGHLIGHTS 5 PROGRESS OF ACTIVITIES 5 CHALLENGES AND PROPOSED REMEDIAL ACTION 6 CHALLENGES DUE TO COVID-19 PANDEMIC 6 CHALLENGES WITH GRANTEES/ACTIVITIES 7

PROGRAM RESULTS TO DATE 8

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ACRONYMS

ACSO Agency for Civil Society Organizations

CARD Center for Advancement of Rights

CEHRO Consortium of Ethiopian Human Rights Organizations

COP Chief of Party

CSO Civil Society Organization

EBS Ethiopian Broadcasting Service

EHRC Ethiopian Human Rights Commission

EMMPA Ethiopian Mass Media Professionals Association

EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front

GM Grants Manager

GoE Government of Ethiopia

GERD Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

HPR Hatèta Policy Research

IRCE Inter-Religious Council of Ethiopia

ISA Institute for Strategic Affairs

JFA-PFE Justice For All - Prison Fellowship Ethiopia

MEL Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning

MoP Ministry of Peace

NEBE National Election Board of Ethiopia

OA Oslo Analytica

OM Operations Manager

PDO Program Development Officer

PM Prime Minister

PMO Prime Minister’s Office

QRFI Quick Request for Information

RPO Regional Program Option

STTA Short Term Technical Assistance

SoE State of Emergency

TPLF Tigray People’s Liberation Front

USAID/OTI USAID Office of Transition Initiatives

USD United States Dollar

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INTRODUCTION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (USAID/OTI) program delivers fast and adaptable support with the aim of contributing to an enabling environment for a peaceful and inclusive reform process that provides a pathway to a more democratic Ethiopia. The program supports all levels of government in Ethiopia, as well as civil society, the media, religious, academic, and other institutions, to advance key democratic reforms and enhance citizen engagement. Dexis Consulting Group (Dexis) has been USAID/OTI’s implementing partner in Ethiopia since February 25, 2020. Dexis provides the personnel, systems, and technical capacity needed to ensure that the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program is operational and grant-ready. The Dexis Field Team provides USAID/OTI with implementation experience, relevant field and regional expertise, and operational capacity necessary to identify, develop, and issue grants in support of the objectives of the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program. Eight months into a remote start-up necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the field team has made progress in establishing physical office readiness in Addis Ababa, advanced staff recruitment, and continued development and implementation of program activities. Working with a variety of Federal Government institutions, media outlets, research partners, and civil society organizations (CSOs), the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program has established strong partnerships working towards the program’s goal of contributing to an enabling environment for a peaceful and inclusive reform process that provides a pathway to a more democratic Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is at a critical juncture in its historic political transition. The election of Prime Minister (PM) Abiy Ahmed in 2018 initiated substantial and long-awaited political, economic, and security reforms, creating an unprecedented opening of democratic and civil society space in Ethiopia. Two years into this process, a volatile combination of domestic socio-economic challenges threatens progress toward administering Ethiopia’s first democratic election. The past six months have seen increased incidents of political violence, deepening federal-regional tensions, and intensified ethnic-based violence and community displacement. Despite continued requests from various actors, there is an absence of a truly representative national dialogue within and between regional and national parties, which both undermines the prospect of sustainable democratic process while limiting broader citizen engagement. National cohesion is in greater question than ever and there are growing concerns that the government will become increasingly reliant on the suppression and silencing of its critics.

To address these concerns, the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program currently operates under the following objectives:

OBJECTIVE 1: Key actors that advance progressive, tangible, and immediate reform are identified, amplified, and responsive to citizen's needs.

OBJECTIVE 2: Conflict that has the potential to destabilize the reform process is identified and mitigated.

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Additionally, the following cross-cutting themes have been identified:

● Youth ● Media ● COVID-19 ● Action Learning ● Gender Dynamics

SUMMARY OF MAJOR ACTIVITIES

ACTIVITIES SUPPORTING OBJECTIVE 1

The USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program is presently working with a variety of actors, including Government of Ethiopia (GoE) institutions and ministries, CSOs, individual “changemakers,” media outlets, and other public-facing entities that are relevant to Ethiopia’s reform process. The expansion of space for CSO work is a hallmark change since 2018 and the Program seeks to capitalize on this window of opportunity. CSOs are critical for democratic reform as they create a sustainable base of support for greater civic engagement and wider understanding of the reform process. CSOs operating in the democracy and governance spaces in Ethiopia remain largely nascent, with many organizations not only requiring operational capacity support to carry out activities, but also more basic support in developing and designing concepts and related budgets. Close coordination and flexibility have been the key features of the Program’s work with CSOs. Two such CSO partnerships developed in support of objective 1 were with the Consortium for Ethiopia Human Rights Organizations (CEHRO) and with Justice For All - Prison Fellowship Ethiopia (JFA-PFE). In addition to partnerships with CSOs, the program also developed activities with two federal government entities, namely the Ethiopia Human Rights Commission (EHRC) and the Agency for Civil Society Organizations (ACSO). Additionally, a critical partnership with Oslo Analytica (OA), a Norwegian data and policy firm with strong ties to local academic institutions, was established to better understand the changing dynamics of COVID-19 and its political and social impacts. Finally, the Program has developed several media grants in support of objective 1 – with Ethiopian Broadcasting Service (EBS) TV, support to a fact-checking radio program on ETHIO-FM, and a grant to the Ethiopian Mass Media Professionals Association (EMMPA).

ACTIVITIES SUPPORTING OBJECTIVE 2

Ethiopia has faced historically complex and escalating violent conflict and ethnic tensions since 2018. A short-term, rapid-response program like the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program is not best-placed to address these long-term, deeply rooted grievances. Instead, the Program focuses on identifying potential triggers and fault lines in key regions in order to reduce tensions and violence that could significantly and detrimentally impact the trajectory of the reform movement. Identified triggers include the upcoming election, ethno-nationalist-driven rhetoric, clashes between different ethnic groups, regional calls for secession and greater autonomy, zonal calls for statehood, harsh measures against protestors or opposition forces, political assassinations, inflammatory hate speech, armed non-state actors, and other destabilizing incidents.

The USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program continues to develop and adapt to conflict engagement and mitigation criteria that aim to build a network of trusted partners who can proactively mitigate tensions or rapidly respond in the wake of violence. The Program identifies areas where the broader historical narrative, matched with local resentment and the proximity of other ethnic groups, offers a combustible set of circumstances when a triggering event occurs. The Program acknowledges that

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each of the country’s major intra- and inter-ethnic flashpoints requires its own set of de-escalatory measures and specific regional strategies.

In support of Objective 2, the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program has partnered with Hatèta Policy Research (HPR), a local think tank, and the Ethiopian Ministry of Peace (MoP), to inform the development of new mechanisms to mitigate the dangers of political competition in an era of political uncertainty since the outbreak of COVID-19 and subsequent indefinite postponement of federal elections. In this vein, the Program supported the Inter-Religious Council of Ethiopia (IRCE) with the printing of their training manuals on peaceful coexistence in the Afan-Oromo language, allowing greater access to a wider range of Ethiopians. Finally, the program carried out rapid research and analysis in order to inform itself and partners on the breaking situation, and opportunities for reconciliation, with respect to the murder of Hachalu Hundessa and subsequent protests.

COUNTRY SITUATION

POLITICAL CONTEXT

After four years of street protests, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) appointed Abiy Ahmed Ali as prime minister on April 2, 2018. Prime Minister Abiy pledged reform, national and regional unity, and brokered peace with Eritrea, winning him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. While Ethiopia had set out on a rapid and ambitious reform agenda by increasing civil liberties, releasing political prisoners, and committing to a free and fair election, chronic and acute socio-economic and political challenges remain. National elections scheduled for May 2020 have, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, been pushed to mid-2021. The past four months have seen a dramatic deterioration in security following the assassination of Oromo singer and activist Hachalu Hundessa on June 29, 2020, which led to widespread violence across Addis Ababa and the Oromia region, leading to the deaths of 289 people and the imprisonment of thousands, including the main figure of the Oromo opposition, Jawar Mohammed. Tensions between the federal government and Tigray Regional State have only escalated over this reporting period; after national elections were postponed, the Tigray Regional Government went ahead with elections on September 5 in open defiance of the GoE, which continues to term the election "illegal" and its results non-binding. While the ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party claimed an overwhelming victory during the election, future engagement with the GoE is unclear given that TPLF claims the federal government’s electoral mandate expires as of October. Finally, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remains part of the political landscape, with negotiations ongoing between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt and supervised by the African Union.

IMPACTS OF COVID-19

Due to the COVID-19 global pandemic, Ethiopia has experienced heightened tensions under the strain on the health system, lack of mobility due to the State of Emergency (SoE), scant work opportunities, and food insecurity. Large cities are rife with tension that has only escalated with increased personal and community strain. Internal displacement is increasingly common, exacerbated by weather and natural events that detrimentally impact rural workers and farmers. Ethiopia has been the recipient of COVID-related aid from different sources in the form of ventilators and personal protective equipment, among other support.

Operationally, the Program has also faced unprecedented challenges; USAID/OTI and Dexis leadership alike have been spurred to remain resilient and adapt to new realities. These realities

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combine political upheaval, shifting grant-making priorities, and the remote work context. Despite an extended start-up, the program successfully established an Addis Ababa office space, hired local personnel, and secured in-country project registration. These essential steps allowed for program activities to move forward while operational delays caused by the pandemic were addressed as quickly as possible. Program activities also remained agile and adaptive to immediate citizens’ needs without losing sight of longer-term objectives. In ensuring safe and efficient continuity of operations, the Program remains aware of the fact that, as of September 30, 2020, more than 75,000 people have been reported as infected by COVID-19 with over 1,000 fatalities in Ethiopia.1

ACTIVITY HIGHLIGHTS

PROGRESS OF ACTIVITIES

This section highlights three of the Program’s cleared and completed activities since beginning full implementation following the remote start-up.

Activity ETH002, “Support to current affairs programming on government reform issues” was cleared on July 24. This activity supports EBS to produce and broadcast seven episodes of the new 30-minute current affairs television program called 'New Way,’ focusing on the Government’s reform agenda and the potential impact of reforms on Ethiopian citizens. The team provides remote training to the EBS team to "pre-produce" episodes of this TV program as well as expert technical assistance to improve the station's production and broadcast capacity. Episodes will also be re-packaged for dissemination via EBS TV digital platforms, including the station's online website, and on newly created Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter feeds. Additionally, the EBS production team will incorporate the use of social media platforms to directly engage with Ethiopian audiences on reform issues discussed during the show. Through this support, USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program will support the efforts of federal and regional governments to communicate about reforms. As of the end of this reporting period, two episodes are in post- and two in pre-production and are expected to air in October. An additional three episodes are expected to air by the end of the year.

Activity ETH003, “Socio-political impact tracing of COVID-19 in Ethiopia,” was one of the Program’s first cleared and first completed activities, having been completed at the end of September. The purpose of this activity was to analyze real-time developments in social interactions, political challenges, conflict, economy, and security due to the impact of COVID-19 on the country. Grantee Oslo Analytica focused on qualitative data collection in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regional states, providing invaluable research to USAID/OTI and local partners to ensure they are in a better position to develop appropriate responses. Over the course of seven reports and two Quick Requests for Information (QRFI), provided crucial insight for USAID/OTI. Additionally, a public-facing version of the reports was developed for sharing.

Finally, ETH007, “Strategic support for institutional reform and capacity building” is a partnership with the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission cleared on May 27. This activity offers a rapid response to the request of a key reform agent, Daniel Bekele, Chief Commissioner to the EHRC, for

1 United Nations Situation Report No. 19 on Ethiopia (16-30 September 2020)

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assistance in strengthening the commission's media, communications, and research capabilities as part of its broader institutional reform program. Two technical advisors with specialized media, communications, and human rights research expertise have been seconded to the EHRC for a period of one year to stand up a new Emergency Investigation Unit with EHRC branch offices and investigate the spate of attacks on civilians by non-state armed groups. The Unit will feed directly into the EHRC's internal understanding of the evolving landscape of human rights abuses against minorities and assist EHRC leadership to advocate for increased protections and enable the Communications Department to inform the public about such developments. The support will enable the EHRC to effectively utilize media platforms to raise awareness, disseminate human rights messages, and advocate for the promotion and protection of human rights. As of September 30, EHRC’s first-ever website and new logo are in development. Furthermore, a public statement template has been developed and approved, in addition to an extrajudicial killing report template and tracking database. An Emergency Researcher is set to travel to Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz States in late October to introduce the new Emergency Investigation Unit.

CHALLENGES AND PROPOSED REMEDIAL ACTION

CHALLENGES DUE TO COVID-19 PANDEMIC

The outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020 forced the initial start-up personnel to quickly return home before the completion of planned start-up activities and initial implementation. Despite the SoE, the project continued remotely, completing start-up and ramping up operations and grant-making thanks to close coordination between the Chief of Party (COP), Operations Manager (OM), and USAID/OTI and Dexis home office staff. With much of the team working remotely, including the COP, OM, and USAID/OTI’s Country Representative and Deputy Country Representative, communication issues and time zone differences posed significant challenges in liaising with local staff and partners. The team quickly adapted to the reality of having very little presence in-country from which to launch basic operational scale-up and maintain programmatic momentum, utilizing Dexis’ recruited national staff to call partners directly and gain traction with government entities. Additionally, COP Mark Lawler was able to act as a bridge between field staff and partners and the rest of the field team that was restricted to the United States, thanks to being in the same time zone following the March withdrawal. The remote work issue was complicated by a complete government-mandated communications shutdown in country in July, but alternative methods of communication were established and staff accounted for regularly for the duration of the shutdown.

Furthermore, as a result of COVID-19 restrictions, grantees have been forced to modify grants and adjust methodologies to remove all in-person trainings and other sessions that would put any staff, grantees, or the public at risk. The field team has creatively adjusted to this new reality, often working more closely with the grantee and individual partners than anticipated, which fosters creative solutions to ongoing problems. Grant implementation monitoring has also been a challenge and has required increased liaising and conversation with the team. USAID/OTI’s Web-Based Database has proven invaluable to keep the whole team aware of any updates when in-person meetings and immediate oversight are impossible. On the operational side, the team was able to utilize Dexis home office’s bank account to pay consultants and awardee milestones to avoid delays in implementation.

The protracted start-up phase, as a result of the pandemic, and travel restrictions causing delays in establishing regional offices, has meant that recruitment has continued well beyond the early months of the program start-up and will continue until regional operations are possible. Nevertheless, by the end of the reporting period, three PDOs were in place in the Addis Ababa office, with a fourth

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identified, together with a Grants Manager (GM) and Monitoring Evaluation and Learning (MEL) Manager, with a second GM and MEL Specialist due to begin by mid-October. Operations staff for the Addis Ababa office (finance, procurement staff, and driver) were also in place by the end of the reporting period.

Challenges with new staff orientation, training, and establishing a team culture are brought into sharp focus in a remote working environment. Although the COP made a trip to Ethiopia in August/September 2020, self-quarantine requirements, restrictions on gatherings and face-to-face interactions, and the continuing high numbers of community infections all prevented team meetings in the office or social gatherings. Even so, since the reopening of travel to Ethiopia in August, the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program has been able to ensure constant leadership in the field. The Program’s Start-Up Team Leader was able to return to country to complete start-up activities with the COP in August, and was accompanied by an STTA Grants & Operations Specialist, who continues to act as the COP’s local anchor until his full mobilization (expected in November). The September arrival in-country of the OM on permanent posting is an important milestone for Dexis in establishing relationships with the Addis-based team and developing a culture of mutual support on the team. Throughout this experience and in high anticipation of local staff’s return to normal work, one of the primary remedial actions throughout COVID-19-related challenges has been for Dexis to quickly re-evaluate and develop safety measures for its office opening, scheduled for early November.

CHALLENGES WITH GRANTEES AND ACTIVITIES

The Program experienced several cases of activities being affected by COVID-19 restrictions and the subsequent need to either completely change or adapt programming. For example, one of the program’s initially identified activities, Promoting Messages of Positivity (ETH001) – a continuation from the Regional Program Option (RPO) – was rejected due to COVID-19 concerns. The aim of this activity was to bring together 15 social influencers for a half-day workshop facilitated by two well-known Ethiopian personalities. With no indoor gatherings advisable under the circumstances, the opportunity to support the event and provide the first opportunity for these influencers to magnify their positive messaging was lost. Nevertheless, other activities are under development to provide similar space for sharing and promoting positive messages to support cohesion and a strengthened body politic.

Some activities have taken longer to move from yellow light to green light due to the need to determine how to adapt to the reality of the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, EBS TV (ETH002) was on hold while the program team worked with EBS TV management to determine how technical support could be delivered remotely. While providing support via video conference would have ultimately been very time-consuming and possibly disruptive for the EBS team, alternative solutions were found using cloud-based video review and collaboration software such as Frame.IO and Adobe Creative Cloud, which facilitated collaboration on video editing over the internet, without the need to send large files back and forth or participate in copious Zoom meetings.

Modifications have been necessary to some grants in the portfolio, as awardees either seek to change the originally agreed scope as their circumstances change, or realize they are unable to meet the commitments of the original scope. In the case of EHRC (ETH007), the grantee requested a change in the technical expertise to be provided under the grant. USAID/OTI demonstrated its flexibility and the importance of the partnership with the EHRC by quickly agreeing to draft a detailed alternative scope for the technical specialist required to enhance their human rights violations investigative capacity. Grantee CEHRO realized their consortium members in the regions

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lacked the capacity to conduct reporting of an appropriate rigor on human rights violations, and again, USAID/OTI allowed the grantee to modify their agreement with Dexis and concentrate their efforts on other components of the activity.

PROGRAM RESULTS TO DATE In the early stages of implementation following a prolonged remote start-up, the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program is beginning to see initial results of completed activities. Each of these in its own way informs and will continue to inform programming for not just the present program, but also for future programs and US government foreign policy at large.

One of the USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program’s first completed activities was a partnership with OA (ETH003). In total, seven OA reports were received and circulated to wider USAID and other partners to better inform programming with the knowledge that the studied regions, Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray, are key regions in Ethiopia’s reform process and beyond health concerns, COVID-19 has lasting socio-economic and political affects. OA and USAID/OTI held a

total of five briefings related to COVID-19 and the intersection with elections in Tigray.

An activity that is aimed to provide broad assistance to a variety of government and non-governmental partners is the partnership with CEHRO, which raises public awareness of basic human rights and protection obligations. Activity ETH005 has allowed for the publication of a Human Rights Toolkit and a remote session with COVID-19 response actors to better understand human rights during a pandemic and associated increased tensions. The Toolkit is being adapted for various regions and translated into five federal languages. Given the sharp rise in inter-ethnic violence, translating materials into multiple languages is a conflict-sensitive measure to building a more inclusive reform process. During this reporting period, the Toolkit was completed in Amharic, Afaan Oromoo, Tigrigna, and Afar languages, with final proof reading of the Somali translation being finalized. Regional human rights assessments are underway and being adjusted for the current realities of travel and data collection. For grantee EHRC (ETH007), Senior Communications Advisor Aaron Maasho was recruited and immediately began meaningfully contributing to the objectives of improving the EHRC’s strategic communications capacity. Since beginning, a total of 15 public statements have been released in either Amharic or both Amharic and English. Mr. Maasho was able to directly assist with the design, implementation, and report drafting of the EHRC’s investigation into the violence, property destruction and killings that occurred in the wake of the Hachalu Hundessa murder. In addition, he has led the Commission’s rebranding efforts. Towards that end, Mr. Maasho has set the Commission on solid footing for the expected November 2020 launch of the first website, including a new logo and billboard. Additionally, an Emergency Researcher, Haimanot Ashenafi, was recruited in late September to travel to EHRC branch offices in Jimma, Oromia and Mekelle, Tigray to develop and

INTER-RELIGIOUS COUNCIL OF ETHIOPIA DISPLAYS PEACE MANUALS PRINTED BY THE USAID/OTI ETHIOPIA PROGRAM

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implement a research and advocacy strategy focused on emergency human rights issues. The Researcher will also design a system to track and map human rights incidents and abuses.

The two first episodes of the fact-checking radio show, “Liyu Mereja" or "Reliable Sources," supported by USAID/OTI under grant ETH008, aired during the reporting period. Local Associated Press (AP) correspondent and public personality, Elias Meseret, tackles the problem of misinformation through this weekly one-hour program on ETHIO FM 107.8. On September 21, the program reported that news on the seizure of 240 million Ethiopian Birr being illegally transported was verified to be false having been posted on a fake account called Ethio-times. The news was confirmed to be false in a live interview with the Federal Police Commission Communications Director. The issue of fake Facebook accounts was discussed by Executive Director of the Center for Advancement of Rights (CARD), Befekadu Hailu, who works with Facebook to shut 450 accounts down. He said that Facebook lacks moderators to verify fake news written in Ethiopian languages other than Amharic. The second show, on September 28, hosted a live interview with National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) member, Dr. Getahun Kassa, to confirm the news of his resignation, but he did not reveal the reasons behind it. Finally, in the same show, the reported demise of Oromo artist, Ali Birra, after undergoing treatment in hospital in Adama town was shown to be false, following his confirmed recovery. This sample of stories demonstrates the potential impact of misinformation in the community, and the efforts of “Reliable Sources” to reveal the truth and expose sources of false news. The USAID/OTI Ethiopia Program has demonstrated its ability to quickly respond to community events and capture information that is locally relevant and programmatically adaptive. After the murder of activist Hachalu Hundessa, violent protests were triggered across capital Addis Ababa and other major cities. ETH012 was completed within 72 hours to provide two QRFIs with Ethiopian-based and UK-registered consultancy, Ethiopia Foresight. The QRFIs and subsequent briefing sessions provided analysis to better understand the role of the Qeerroo movement in protests and to identify interventions to de-escalate tensions in the immediate term and inform long-term strategy.