usa solar market

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 1

USA Solar Market

Solar Market Business Management

SS ‘12

Jesús Martínez Cantú


Agenda•Overview (Key facts)•Electricity Energy Sector

Infrastructure •Electricity Prices and Solar

radiation•Levelized Cost of Electricity•Grid Parity Projection•Political Framework•Conclusion Solar Market

conosurconsulto

res.com


Overview (Key facts)• Federal constitutional republic (50 States and 1 Federal

district)• 9.8 million km^2 area (25 times Germany) and 312 million

people (3rd )• GDP 2011; US$ 15.1 trill. (1st), China US$ 7 trill. (2nd) . (1 US$

= 0.79 Eur)• Energy Consumption 2011; 97.5 quad. BTU28.5 PWh

(10^15)(1st ), more than 7 times Germany consumption (*) Data 2010 wikipedia

• Total energy consumption increases 12 % by 2035. (0.5% per year) US EIA

http://www.eia.gov/

energy_in_brief/

major_energy_sources_and_users.cf

m

http://www.eia.gov/

energy_in_brief/

renewable_electricity.cfm


Electricity Energy Sector infrastructure

• Differents sources to generate electricity No national Grid to transmission• 3 grids operating in 48 contiguous states, 1 grid in Alaska and 1 grid in Hawaii.• In addition throughout the year consumption varies, therefore prices vary

according location.

http://www.eia.gov/

energy_in_brief/p

ower_grid.cfm

http://www.eia.gov/

todayinenergy/detail.cfm?

id=4270

http://www.eia.gov/state/

(*) 2010


Electricity prices 2011 Avg Vs. Radiation

(1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

A (23.58 €cents/KWh) E (5.44 - 6.64 €cents/KWh)B (14.87 €cents/KWh) F (4.90 - 5.49 €cents/KWh)C (9.34 - 10.67 €cents/KWh) G (4.90 - 5.49 €cents/KWh)D (7.81 - 8.69 €cents/KWh) H (4.02 - 4.86 €cents/KWh)

Utility Scale

A (27.03 €cents/KWh) E (7.49 - 8.32 €cents/KWh)B (11.26 - 11.94 €cents/KWh) F (7.38 - 6.49 €cents/KWh)C (10.11 - 10.98 €cents/KWh) G (5.67 - 6.24 €cents/KWh)D (8.58 - 9.79 €cents/KWh) H (5.16 - 5.56 €cents/KWh)

Industrial Scale

A (28.81 €cents/KWh) E (10.01 - 10.71 €cents/KWh)B (14.29 €cents/KWh) F (8.35 - 9.35 €cents/KWh)C (12.79 - 13.77 €cents/KWh) G (7.24 - 8.06 €cents/KWh)D (11.72 - 12.32 €cents/KWh) H (6.06 - 6.99 €cents/KWh)

Residential Scale


Levelized cost of Electricity Solar System• Assumptions

from RNEL 2011 study. (c-Si Modules) http://www.osti.gov/bridge

• 25 % overnight capital cost reduction due modules price vs. 2011 study. http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/

• LCOE NREL simple calculator used. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html

(1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)


Grid Parity is coming…

(1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

Assuming 10 % system price reduction by learning curve in PV. Approx. yearly trend increases electricity price by 2.65 % Residential, 1.89% Industrial and 0.5 % Utility.


Political Framework• Adoption of electric retail

choice programs that allow end-use customers to buy electricity from competitive retail suppliers.

• State Incentives: California Solar Initiative. (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/index.php)

• States Policies SREC’s on states with Renewable Portfolio Standard.

• Federal Incentives: Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) . 30 % tax credit from renewable equipment

http://www.eia.gov/

todayinenergy/detail.cfm?

id=6250

http://dsireusa.org


Projection PV and CSP (Utility)

PV CSP

Country Status Expected CompletionNominal power (Capacity MW)

PlantsNominal power (Capacity MW)

PlantsTotal Nominal

Nominal power (Capacity MW)

Plants

USA Operating Operating 423 9 508 8 930 17Total Operating 423 9 508 8 930 17Under Construction 2012 50 1 50 1

2013 628 3 650 2 1,278 52014 600 1 360 2 960 32015 1,320 2 1,320 2

Total Under Construction 2,598 7 1,010 4 3,608 11Announced 2012 223 3 223 3

2013 576 5 576 52014 1,418 5 1,418 52015 1,560 2 1,560 22016 961 3 961 32025 2,700 1 2,700 1

No Date 1,799 4 5,099 25 6,898 29Total Announced 9,237 23 5,099 25 14,336 48

Total general 12,258 39 6,617 37 18,874 76

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/

51847.pdf

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/

51847.pdf

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf


U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)Sunshot iniative•Reducing Solar Technology Costs

▫Increasing PV solar cell efficiency, ▫Reducing production costs ▫Opening new markets for solar energy

•Reducing Solar Grid Integration Costs▫Grid Planning▫Reliability

•Accelerating Deployment solar technologies


Conclusion• US Solar Market is increasing

▫Fast due approaching grid parity.▫RPS in states and federal incentives facilitate

deployment.• Potential to be biggest solar market in the world.

(Resources and demand).• If trends prevail the percentage of Solar plants

generating electricity at utility-scale will be higher than 16 % as projected in 2035 by US EIA. (http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf)

• Better estimation of LCOE should be customized to the location. (state characteristics, CP, more detailed overnight cost, wages, etc.)


Thanks for your attention!!

Questions???laiaatienza.com


References• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)• http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/reports.cfm?t=182• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_and_production• http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/power_grid.cfm• http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/• http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4270• http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html• http://www.osti.gov/bridge• http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser• http://dsireusa.org/• http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=EARLY2012&subject=2-

EARLY2012&table=2-EARLY2012&region=1-0&cases=early2012-d121011b• http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf• http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf• http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/• http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/csi/index.php

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