u.s. office jobs going offshore millions of jobs (140 million sq. ft.) (193 million sq. ft.) (595...

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.S. Office Jobs Going Offsho 0 1.75 3.5 5.25 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2015 Millions of Jobs (140 million sq. ft.) (193 million sq. ft.) (595 million sq. ft.) 0.1 0.8 1.2 3.4 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Forrester Research, Inc., 2004 (53 million sq. ft.) 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.7 (298 million sq. ft.)

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Page 1: U.S. Office Jobs Going Offshore Millions of Jobs (140 million sq. ft.) (193 million sq. ft.) (595 million sq. ft.) 0.1 0.8 1.2 3.4 Source: U.S. Department

U.S. Office Jobs Going OffshoreU.S. Office Jobs Going Offshore

0

1.75

3.5

5.25

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2015

Millions of Jobs

(140 millionsq. ft.)

(193 millionsq. ft.)

(595 millionsq. ft.)

0.10.8

1.2

3.4

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Forrester Research, Inc., 2004

(53 millionsq. ft.)

0.5

1.0 1.1

1.7

(298 millionsq. ft.)

Page 2: U.S. Office Jobs Going Offshore Millions of Jobs (140 million sq. ft.) (193 million sq. ft.) (595 million sq. ft.) 0.1 0.8 1.2 3.4 Source: U.S. Department

U.S. Office Inventory ImpactsU.S. Office Inventory Impacts

Multi-tenant inventory

3,650,000,000

Today’s vacancy

- 620,500,000

Occupied inventory

3,029,500,000

Further demand loss to 2015

508,000,000

Sq. Ft.

Page 3: U.S. Office Jobs Going Offshore Millions of Jobs (140 million sq. ft.) (193 million sq. ft.) (595 million sq. ft.) 0.1 0.8 1.2 3.4 Source: U.S. Department

U.S. Employment at Riskto Outsourcing - 2001

Total U.S. Employment

127,980,410

Office Support

8,637,900

Business and Financial Support

2,153,480

Computer and Math Professionals

2,825,870

Paralegals and Legal Assistants

183,550

Diagnostic Support Services

168,240

Medical Transcriptionists

94,090

Total at Risk Employment

14,063,130

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compilation by Ashok D. Bardhan and Cynthia Kroll,Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, University of California, Berkeley

Page 4: U.S. Office Jobs Going Offshore Millions of Jobs (140 million sq. ft.) (193 million sq. ft.) (595 million sq. ft.) 0.1 0.8 1.2 3.4 Source: U.S. Department

Occupations at Risk to Outsourcing as Share of Total Employment

U.S. Atlanta Boston Chicago Detroit Houston New YorkCity

LosAngeles

SanFrancisco

San J ose

Office Support Business and Finance Support Computer and math Legal and Medical

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compilation by Ashok D. Bardhan and Cynthia Kroll,Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, University of California, Berkeley

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Page 5: U.S. Office Jobs Going Offshore Millions of Jobs (140 million sq. ft.) (193 million sq. ft.) (595 million sq. ft.) 0.1 0.8 1.2 3.4 Source: U.S. Department

13 million financial services employees in mature industrial economies

15% migrating offshore (2 million)

— 850,000 from U.S.

— 730,000 from Europe

— 400,000 from Japan

Financial Services OutsourcingFinancial Services Outsourcing

Source: Deloitte Research

Page 6: U.S. Office Jobs Going Offshore Millions of Jobs (140 million sq. ft.) (193 million sq. ft.) (595 million sq. ft.) 0.1 0.8 1.2 3.4 Source: U.S. Department

U.S. Office Market Implications

Reduced short- to medium-term demand

Protracted vacancy = no rent increases

Development not justified

Call center and data processing hubs hurt most

Financial centers strong -- but watch the back office functions

Government centers least affected

Class A- and B buildings will suffer

Class A by no means immune

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